Week 8 Costanza Picks

Who among us can forget the vintage Seinfeld episode where George, frustrated with the horrible direction of his life, decides to begin doing the exact opposite of whatever his instinct tells him to. Sitting at Monk's, he introduces himself to a woman with the classic line:

Hello, my name is George, I'm unemployed and I live with my parents.

He gets the girl; hilarity ensues.

Much like our friend George Costanza, every instinct I have is wrong. I get paid to write about college football by several outlets. I repeat: I get paid to do this. In my defense, I don't exactly get paid to give betting tips or make anybody money. I get paid to breakdown games in interesting ways, and provide the average fan with some information or an angle they may not know off hand. And, I think I do a decent job.

But I am absolutely terrible at picking spreads.

Last week, I went 10 out of 29 ATS. That's awful. The sad thing is, I was actually thrilled to make it to 33% after starting the day (gulp) 5 of 29. You really can't do that poorly if you try. So...after four straight losing weeks actually trying to pick winners, I present you with...

Week 8 Costanza Picks.

The logic goes as follows: if my every instinct is wrong, wouldn't the opposite...have to be right? So I'll give you the opposite of who I think should cover, meaning I'll be picking against my own instincts. It can't miss, right?

Note: The descriptions may confuse you. But remember, I'm picking against myself and all logic goes out the window.

Let's get to it:

Syracuse -4.5 vs. Buffalo: Syracuse really stinks. I mean they're really, really bad. Meanwhile Buffalo has a nice running game, an accurate passer, and a whole hell of a lot to play for.

Navy +3.5 vs. Wake Forest: Wake is one of the ACC's best teams, and Navy's isn't the juggernaut it's been the last few years. Wake should win by 10.

Western Michigan +1.5 vs. Ball State: This one is extra special. I've seen both these teams play in person, and I'm telling you - Ball State is much, much better than Western Michigan. The Broncos almost tripped over their own feet trying to beat Northern Illinois. Ball State should win this one by 2 TDs.

Kentucky +6.5 vs. Florida: What's not to like about the Gators, desperate to re-establish their identity, and coming off a bye week, healthy and rested? Throw in the fact that the betting public is probably going hog wild over the Wildcats getting 6.5 points at home, and this one's easy.

Penn State -7.5 at Indiana: PSU drilled Wisconsin. So what? The Badgers stink. PSU will struggle with Indiana's spread offense, and the Hoosiers should and could win outright.

Rutgers +3 vs. USF: This matchup is straight fucked up. Rutgers looks like a traditional power compared to USF, who is actually really damn good, better than the Scarlet Knights were last year. Rutgers can't stop people on D; USF's George Selvie will make life hell for Mike Teel.

Virginia +4 at Maryland: I always bet on the Terps. They're so underrated, and the Cavs have to be the softest 3-0 ACC unit in history.

Iowa +7.5 at Purdue: I love this pick. Why? Iowa gets destroyed by teams that can spread it out and throw all over the field. The Hawks DBs, "led" by Adam Shada, are terrible, and Curtis Painter is going to own them.

MTSU -2 vs. Arkansas State: What? MTSU stinks. Arkansas State can play. What the hell is with this line? Seriously?

And here's two NFL picks for you, while we're at it:

Here's my new formula for betting NFL games - courtesy of one of Bill Simmons' readers - when you see all kinds of money going in on one team (i.e. last week, when the Bengals got all the public money at KC), but Vegas doesn't move the line at all. Essentially, they're saying: you take the Bengals, we're sticking with the Chiefs.

In that spirit, here are the two games this week where the underdog is getting all the money, but Vegas is actually moving the line in the OTHER direction. Blood's in the water:

Lions -2.5 vs. Bucs: The Lions? Getting 2.5 against a Bucs team that is the story of the NFC this year, winning games with Earnest Graham and Jeff Garcia? Makes no sense.

Eagles -5 vs. Bears: I actually like this pick, which scares me. The Bears are awful. The Eagles are either awful or awesome, depending on what light you catch them in.

Enjoy, and may the parlays be with you.