C-USA Power Rankings: Week 8

Well, it’s October 15, and every team in the conference already has a loss. Both division races are still up for grabs, with ECU out front in the West, but down a tiebreak to lurking Southern Miss. The East is totally up in the air, with Tulsa, UTEP and Houston all sitting at 2-1. Here’s how I think the teams stack up right now on a neutral field:

1. East Carolina – You have to put the Pirates in the top spot after they fought off UCF and UTEP in back to back weeks, to reach 3-1 in the conference. I’m definitely starting to get the impression that ECU’s brutal non conference schedule (VA Tech, UNC, West Virginia) had the Pirates well prepared for the C-USA grind, and skewed some stats into the impression that this squad wasn’t very good. Right now, the Pirates are thriving on turnovers and field position in doing a marvelous job converting yards in to points. Just 94^th nationally in yards, ECU is 49^th in scoring due to good conversions and a propensity for creating turnovers (8^th nationally in margin, +1.43 per game). After NC State this week, the C-USA schedule is relatively smooth sailing, with UAB, Memphis, Marshall and Tulane waiting. The East is ECU’s to lose.
2. Tulsa – UTEP’s last second loss to ECU opened the door for the Golden Hurricane in the West, as Tulsa now sits in a three-way tie at 2-1 with the Miners and the Houston Cougars. QB Paul Smith has put up six straight 300-yard games and is probably in a three-way race for C-USA player of the year with running backs Kevin Smith (UCF) and Matt Forte (Tulane). What still frightens me about this team is that the defense is susceptible to giving up big yards and points to almost any offense. The nation’s 115^th best on the scoreboard, and 112nd in yards surrendered, the Tulsa D hasn’t held anybody under 30 points since August. If Paul Smith isn’t clicking, this team can lose to anyone on the schedule. Tarrion Adams, the nation’s 22^nd leading rusher, deserves a lot of credit for supplying the offense a very potent ground option if Smith encounters difficulty through the air.
3. Houston – The Cougars’ unpredictability is par for the course in this league, but this weekend’s 48 points given up to Rice are mysterious. 48 points? Rice? The nation’s 109^th ranked offense? Houston’s D is 2^nd in the league, and their inability to tackle the Owls a week after an impressive outing at Alabama was downright confounding. You know the C-USA has a bumper crop when Houston’s Anthony Aldridge (124 ypg, 8^th nationally) will be third team all conference at best.
4. UCF – It’s obviously not the fact that the Knights lost to USF, but the margin of victory was stunning, as the Bulls came out with a Florida-sized chip on their shoulder after last week’s lackluster outing against FAU. The rotating quarterback scenario, which at one point seemed like it might be another interesting wrinkle in the offense, has been exposed as a scheme that will be shut down if Kevin Smith doesn’t have room to run. Throw in the Knights sick turnover margin (-1.83 per game, 114^th nationally), and you’ve got a recipe for a second half disaster. Holding on to the ball doesn’t get any easier in the season’s second half, and the last thing UCF can afford to do is give Paul Smith & Co. great field position.
5. UTEP – The Miners are a field goal away from having a stranglehold on the C-USA West, but they’re also two plays away from being 0-3. You can’t bet on or against this team, period, except if you’re taking the over on them hitting a 9.5 on the exciting meter. Trevor Vittatoe is at his best in the 4^th quarter, but if the defense can’t hold anyone under 40 points, this team simply can’t win a division title. Sophomore DB Da-mon Cromatie-Smith has 50 tackles, 2 INT and leads the conference in hyphens per name.
6. Southern Miss – The Golden Eagles might not have it all back together, but I’m being optimistic after their solid 28-7 win over SMU this week. Realistically, this squad had a once-in-a-generation night of turnovers in the Rice game, and if they hadn’t happened, they’d be 3-0. But it did happen, and now we’re reminding how crucial a healthy Stephen Reaves is to the offense. So. Miss got some nice individual efforts on D against SMU, with Gerald McRath (12.17 tackles per game, 2^nd nationally) making 11 more stops, and Matthew Chatelain (1.25 TFL per game, 2^nd in C-USA) getting 3 tackles behind the line of scrimmage.
7. UAB – The Blazers couldn’t stop Matt Forte, but they did win the war against Tulane, thanks to getting 14 of their 26 points on special teams and defense. The Blazers have been really good at getting in to opposing backfields, and actually did a better job against the Tulsa attack than a lot of teams have. Houston comes to Birmingham now, and the Cougars bring a balanced attack. UAB has had some success against teams that run or pass only; how well will they stack up against an offense with options?
8. Tulane – Forte is making a push to pass Kevin Smith for C-USA player of the year honors, and would probably be the leader for the award if the Green Wave had 3 or 4 wins instead of 1. The Wave’s long round trip hits its final leg in Dallas this weekend after stops in West Point and Birmingham. In Antonio Harris, Adam Kwentua and Reggie Scott, Tulane has three of C-USA top 9 sack artists; its hard to figure out, with all the QB pressure, how they’re still losing the turnover battle by one giveaway a game.
9. Memphis – The offense and defense have both been solid, at 6^th and 5^th in the league in yards, respectively. I’ll put the Tigers in the category of teams I don’t feel I know too much about this week. There are only two league games under the belt; a blowout loss at UCF when the Knights were at the peak of their early in the year, and an emotion win over Marshall that probably isn’t a fair sample of anything. Who are these Tigers? We’ll find out the next two weeks during road trips to Rice and Tulane.
10. Rice – The Owls have turned over a new leaf, being competitive the last two weeks in a win over Southern Miss and a loss to Houston. Chase Clement had some gaudy numbers against the Cougars, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves; the defense got 5 turnovers last week but still gave up 750 yards; the offense doesn’t have a running back netting more than 31 yards a game, despite the 48 point explosion at Houston. The next two weeks are the most winnable games on the schedule; how Rice fares against Memphis and Marshall will define its season.
11. SMU – I thought the Ponies were poised to turn the corner at Southern Miss last week; I was wrong. SMU’s offense was dead on arrival in Hattiesburg. Glass is half full people, look at it this way: since the opener against Texas Tech, SMU’s offense has scored 45 points in both home games, against only 14 per game on the road. Tulane, Rice and UCF all comes to SMU in three winnable games.
12. Marshall – The Herd scored some points against Tulsa, but never really seemed in the game. We didn’t find out a lot about Marshall we didn’t know before the game, as the line play continues to be brutal and the defense doesn’t show a lot of hope of stopping anyone. The Herd got a nice defensive game from C.J. Spillman, who tacked on 6 solo tackles to his season total of 33 solos. On the other hand, when a d-back has 64 tackles and no interceptions, you have to wonder how well they’re covering receivers.