C-USA Power Rankings: Week 7

The conference saw a big shakeup this weekend, with Tulsa and UCF going down, opening the door for some teams we wouldn’t have expected. As the year goes on, these rankings get harder and harder, but remember – they represent who I think would win if everyone played on a neutral field tomorrow. With 12 squads, that field would be crowded, but nonetheless, off we go:

1. East Carolina – I think we all got duped in to thinking this Pirate squad couldn’t play after a couple disappointing offensive outputs against big time programs. But after coming back to beat Houston and rolling UCF, the Pirates seem to have found their groove and their starting QB in Robert Kass, who has been great the last couple weeks. The offense still ranks 103th in total yards, but that is residual from the VA Tech and West Virginia losses. What needs to happen now is a commitment to stopping the pass on defense: if ECU doesn’t fix that, they’ll lose at UTEP.
2. Houston – The Cougars gave Alabama all they wanted, and now get Rice and UAB before heading to UTEP. Case Keenum (co-captain of the C-USA all-name team with UAB’s Swayze Waters) is stepping right in for Kevin Kolb, leading an offense that is in the top 30 nationally in rushing, passing and total yards. The big gorilla now is turnovers; Houston is losing the turnover battle by 1.6 a game, an unacceptable number for a school that can still contend for their division title. It’s time to right the ship the next couple weeks; Houston has the best pass D UTEP will have faced in awhile, they can’t afford a slip up in El Paso if they want to in the West.
3. UCF – The Knights were fine for the 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th quarters against ECU, but turned the ball over 5 times in the third period, and gave up 35 points in about 17 minutes on their way to a 52-38 loss. You’re not going to beat anyone with that kind of ball security, but UCF gave short fields to an ECU offense that hasn’t been good for awhile, and the Pirates found their mojo in a big way. I think UCF probably has the highest ceiling of any C-USA team, but we’ll see how they respond this week against the new bully in town, South Florida.
4. UTEP – For the second straight week, Miner QB Trevor Vittatoe led a late comeback as UTEP got a ginormous win over Tulsa. So, we know that you can’t count this team out until the final gun sounds, and suddenly this team is looking like it could win the West, getting ECU and Houston at home before winnable road trips at Rice and Tulane. If UTEP can knock off one of the big boys at home, they should be 5-1 in the conference when Southern Miss comes to town. Now, how about some defense? At 114^th in total yards and 117^th in pass D nationally, they’re going to get beat by someone they shouldn’t.
5. Tulsa – With a chance to grab the C-USA West by the throat, Tulsa couldn’t finish off UTEP and is now stuck in the mire of teams at 1-1. I know I sound like a broken record, but the defense just has to get better, and could start by creating some turnovers. With all the passing that’s been done on Tulsa, they’ve only got 4 picks. The lack of game-changing plays on defense isn’t just the secondary’s fault – the front four isn’t getting much pressure, just over 1 sack per game.
6. SMU – It’s still pretty hard to categorize this SMU squad, which had UTEP left for dead and outgained TCU handily the week before. I’m opting to think that this is a fairly talented squad who will use the recent bye week to get their heads on straight. I also like the balance: QB Justin Willis leads an offensive attack that has put up 156 yards rushing and 244 passing per game. This is one of the most balanced offenses in the league, but if Willis goes down, all bets are off.
7. Memphis – The Tigers are starting to look like a competitive unit, despite blowing a big lead against Arkansas State two weeks ago. Time will tell how much of an emotional hangover there is after the Marshall win and Taylor Bradford’s death. The Tigers now have two QBs who can play, and they’ve done a great job protecting both, allowing just a sack per game. One stat that continues to leap off the page: 23 yards net per punt? Is that even possible? Worst in the nation in any field of special teams is a bad recipe for a winning season.
8. Southern Miss – The Golden Eagles have looked terrible two weeks in a row, and although injuries are partly to blame, there’s still no excuse for getting bombed by Rice. 6 turnovers by one player, injured QB Stephen Reaves, is a nightmarish type of outing, but the top ranked defense in the C-USA still couldn’t keep the lowly Owls out of the end zone. Maybe the ten days between games will help So. Miss get healthy; if they don’t, they’ll lose at least once more before UCF comes to town on Halloween weekend, and their season will be over.
9. Tulane – The Green Wave have had their hearts broken two successive weeks in two completely different ways. Two great efforts, in the Superdome and famed Michie Stadium, give reason for optimism, as does the continued stellar output of RB Matt Forte (4^th in NCAA, 142 ypg) behind an offensive line that has been much better than expected, both in making ground for Forte and in protecting struggling QB Anthony Scelfo. The line play in general has been excellent, as Tulane leads the conference in sacks, TFL and sacks allowed. Tulane is getting killed by penalties, missed FGs and poor special teams play all around. Get that in order, and this could be a .500 team in C-USA.
10. UAB – The Blazers battled, but couldn’t go 15 rounds with Mississippi State, getting outscored 21-nil in the fourth quarter to lose 30-13. It will be interesting to see if UAB can be ECU-lite; in the same way that the Pirates’ brutal OOC schedule seems to have steeled them for the C-USA chase, UAB has played Michigan State, Florida State and Mississippi State now. This could look like a totally different squad against Tulane.
11. Rice – The Owls had been a truly awful football team this year, but rose up and bit Southern Miss, capitalizing on 7 turnovers to win 31-29. Both the offense and defense still rank 100^th or worse in almost every NCAA category, and there’s not a running back on the squad averaging more than 31 yards a game. Those are colossally bad numbers, but who knows: maybe the defense developed a taste for the ball this weekend, and can keep snatching turnovers. With Marshall and Memphis looking beatable, a little luck could get this squad to three C-USA wins.
12. Marshall – One of FBS’ last winless teams had a shot late against Memphis, but couldn’t score against an emotional Tigers defense. Bernard Morris and the offense are passing for truckloads of yards (280 per game, 21^st in NCAA), but I can’t figure out if that’s because they’re any good, or just because Marshall has been behind for almost all 300 minutes of football they’ve played this year. With seven ten-tackle games to his credit, junior DB CJ Spillman might be the team’s best player. But when a DB is getting that many tackles, you have to wonder…