Forgive me, Hokie fans, for I have sinned. Last week in this space I forecasted a 1-point loss to Clemson, having no idea how inspired the defensive effort would be in the
So, with Tech now at 2-0 in the ACC and two weeks from a possible title-game preview at
Duke (1-5, 0-3 ACC)
Offense: You may not be the betting type, but if you are, you know that when a team covers the spread four weeks running, the public isn’t giving them the respect they deserve. Sure, the Dukies aren’t a great team by any stretch, but they’ve climbed out of the ACC cellar talent-wise, and I’ve got them as the 10th best team in the league right now, and the potential to be even better was evidenced in a close loss to
Thaddeus Lewis commands the offensive attack, and is putting together a season a little bit better than a lot of folks might realize. Lewis, still just a sophomore, is 101 of 191 throwing, with 1491 yards in just 6 games. The schedule hasn’t been easy either, as the numbers aren’t padded with any huge days against cream puffs. Lewis has thrown for 241 yards or more in the last four games, and since the opening clash with UCONN, his TD:INT ratio is a pretty-darn-great 14:4. This kid is poised to be a genuine all-conference performer within the next year or two, and his presence commands VA Tech’s respect and attention on defense.
Lewis is 3rd in the ACC in total offense and 2nd in passing efficiency, so clearly the road to stopping Duke’s offense starts with stopping Lewis. The key to harassing Lewis is through pressure, as is so often the case. The Duke line has been terrible, just terrible at protecting Lewis this year, surrendering 3.83 sacks a game (115th in the nation). The quickest way for a talented young thrower like Lewis to have his growth stunted is to get too many clean shots from opposing defensive ends, but the sacks just keep coming, often at the worst times for Duke drives.
The offensive line woes don’t stop at just poor pass protection, however, as the line has also been wretched at paving holes for a running game. The rush attack is 116th in the nation at just 66 yards a game. After seeing limited carries in the first three carries, junior Re’Quan Boyette has given Duke a bit of a lift in this department, logging 190 carries in 29 carries in those three contests. Boyette is as much of a bruiser as the Blue Devils have, at 5-foot-10 and 210 lbs.
Lewis’ development has been aided by being able to chuck to experienced WR Eron Riley. Riley is currently the ACC’s leading receiver, at 4.17 catches (7th in conf.) and 90.67 yards (1st in conf.) per game. At just twenty and two months, Riley is younger than some that play major college football as freshman, but he’s been a rock for Lewis. Riley has about 1400 yards and 14 scores in his career, and he’s still just a junior. Senior WR Jomar Wright is another long-term guy having his best year yet in the blue and white, with 31 catches for 346 yards and 3 TD at the midpoint.
Defense: The numbers aren’t pretty.
11th in the ACC against the run, 177.33 ypg
12th in the ACC at pass efficiency D, 144.15
12th in the ACC at total yardage D, 437.17 ypg
12th in the ACC at scoring D, 32.33 ppg
11th in the ACC against the pass, 259.83 ypg
OK, so the Duke D ain’t good. The unit’s biggest problem this year has been an inability to get off the field on possession downs, and give the volatile offense a chance to explode in to a groove. Once the unit woke up and got a few stops against Wake, look what happened: the Devils only had to punt on one of their last five possessions, and almost won the football game. The key for Tech will be getting a lot of third downs in the 2-6 yard area. Keep the sticks moving with manageable down & distance, and the overmatched Duke D will really have no chance.
Sophomore LB Vincent Rey is the ACC’s leading tackler (12 tpg), and has been a beast all year. Rey had 12 tackles against Wake, including three TFL, and can make hits all over the field. Rey is a lot like Lewis: a talented young player that represents a new kind of Duke football player. #31 got out of the gate strong with a devastating 17 tackle, 2 sacks performance against UCONN that set the tone for the kind of year he’s having. Rey has had a TFL in every game but one this year, and he just has to be marked at all times.
Senior DL Patrick Bailey isn’t an outstanding talent, but is coming up on 200 career tackles, so he can make a play here and there. Bailey also as a TFL in every game but one, and his 12 stops against Northwestern helped give Duke a great chance to win on the road.
The secondary obviously isn’t too good, but with the way Tyrod Taylor is throwing, any threat is significant, and sophomore DB Leon Wright is just that. With 3 picks on the year, including two against
Special Teams: As mentioned above, Wright looks to be the punt returner now, with Jabari Marshall the main kick return guy. Marshall knows what he’s doing back there, having averaged 25 yards a return in 2006, and getting off to a nice start in 2007, with a TD against UCONN and 29 returns for 26 yards a pop, good for 2nd in the conference.
The Duke placekicking game is in outright disarray, with junior Joe Surgan sitting on just 4 of 14 FGs made since the start of 2001. Who knows which kicker gets the FG duties this weekend, but Greg Meyers missed his only attempt, and Nick Maggio has only been allowed to do extra points (4 of 4). Freshman Kevin Jones has showed promise punting the ball, with a 41.1 yard average on 26 kicks.
Prediction: The weapons in
Prediction: The weapons in Durham scare me, but the defense is just too shaky overall to give VA Tech much of a scare. Expect about 12 pass attempts from Taylor; the Hokies can’t run the ball too much in this game. Methinks the final is a bit closer than some Hokie fans would like, but a win is a win, and after this, it’s on to Chestnut Hill. Virginia Tech 24, Duke 13.
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