Big Ten Preview: Week 8

Only four Big Ten games this week, with Northwestern and Wisconsin getting visits from the MAC, and Minnesota taking on a dangerous FCS foe. Leaving the Illinois game once again to Jeff, let’s take a look at what else is on tap this weekend, in the order of how much I’m looking forward to watching them:

Game of the Week:

Iowa at Purdue – If the Hawks can get a win at West Lafayette, these two teams will be like ships passing in the night; Iowa resurrecting a season after a terrible start, Purdue falling further and further into oblivion after a sparkling 5-0 bow. The Hawks D was cash money against the Illini last week, limiting the multi-pronged Illinois attack to just 6 points, quite a feat for a D that had been savaged by Indiana the week before. But here’s the thing about Iowa; the secondary isn’t very good and you’ve got to beat them through the air. This plays right in to the hands of Purdue, a battered bunch that will zing it all around the field on the arm of Curtis Painter. The Boilers have the perfect scheme to beat Iowa, and here’s saying they will: big time. Purdue 38, Iowa 17.

Best of the Rest:

Penn State at Indiana – Here’s another clash between squads that, based on last week at least, feel headed in opposite directions. The Hoosiers got power bombed by 25 in East Lansing, while Penn State piled on the suddenly limping Badgers. The loss at MSU wasn’t startling just for the margin, but for how it went down. Indy only had the ball for 18 minutes of the game, and netted just 22 ground yards in 17 carries. Penn State’s run D contained P.J. Hill pretty nicely this past weekend, so don’t think they’ll be terrified at the thought of Indiana’s running game. But the pass D is a little more vulnerable, kind of an Iowa D on steroids. In Happy Valley, this is an easy call, but in Bloomington, I expect a game much closer. PSU hasn’t won on the road this year, and I don’t think they’ll break the streak Saturday. Indiana 24, Penn State 17.

Michigan State at Ohio State – The Spartans got back to good with a thrashing of Indiana last weekend, and Ohio State hasn’t been anything but good all year. The D has more punts forced than punts allowed, and the Horseshoe crowd is going to be more than ready to welcome the nation’s newly-minted top ranked squad. Javon Ringer is emerging as a major player in the Big Ten player of the year race, and at 7^th in the nation in rushing, just a little behind Mike Hart. MSU will not be scared heading to the ‘Shoe, and if Brian Hoyer can remain as efficient as he was against Indiana (20 of 23 completions), MSU can have a chance to be in this game until really late. The OSU defense will have other ideas, however, as the great Buckeye linebackers are fast enough to contain Ringer and big enough to pound Jehuu Caulcrick. This one will be closer than people think, but the Buckeyes will prevail. Ohio State 28, Michigan State 20.

North Dakota State at Minnesota – This North Dakota State squad is a dangerous bunch, having already raked a decent Central Michigan team over the coals in September, and unbeaten on the season. NDSU has won their last ten games, and beating Minnesota would be yet another feather in their cap this year. Who knows how the Gophers are going to respond to last week’s heartbreaking finish at Northwestern, but the Bison are a disciplined group that will punish mental mistakes. Minnesota’s clocking in at 118^th in turnover margin, at an atrocious -2.14 per game. They’re also dead last in total D, pass D and 114^th nationally in scoring D. The Gophers are the kind of squad NDSU eats for lunch, so don’t think Minny is getting healthy this weekend. North Dakota State 38, Minnesota 20.

Ho Hum

Eastern Michigan at Northwestern – The Eagles come to Evanston with only one FBS win, over MAC West rival Northern Illinois. EMU has two of the MAC’s best five defensive players in LB Daniel Holtzclaw and DE Jason Jones. Holtzclaw is 6^th in the MAC in tackles, and is a classic sideline to sideline linebacker. Jones has an undeniable knack for attacking opposing backfields, averaging 2 TFL per game. This is a dangerous, trap-type game for the Wildcats, who have a way of turning opposing QBs in to superstars. You’re a smarter sportswriter than me if you can figure out where EMU QB Andy Schmitt’s 20-28, 210 yard, 4 score outing against Ohio came from. I think the Eagles can keep it close in Evanston, but Northwestern pulls out another close one. Northwestern 41, Eastern Michigan 31.

Boooooooooring

Northern Illinois at Wisconsin – Forget what you think you knew about the Badgers preseason. Forget the hype, forget the winning streak carrying over from last year. Forget all that. And look at what they’ve done on the field. Based on what we’ve seen this year, Wisconsin is maybe, maybe the conference’s 6^th best team, with a stat sheet about as unimpressive as can be for a squad that started the year in everybody’s top ten. The Badgers are 60^th nationally in scoring, 60^th in scoring D, 95^th in TFL, 97^th in turnover margin. The list continues; you get the idea. Here’s my prediction for this game: after the Wisconsin D lights up a Northern offense with only one viable option (RB Justin Anderson) and does a number on their backup QB (sophomore Ryan Morris, starting in place of vet Dan Nicholson), folks will be saying Wisconsin is back. Don’t listen. Wisconsin 41, Northern Illinois 10.