C-USA Title Game Preview

The Golden Hurricane are a touchdown-sized underdog to UCF in this weekend’s C-USA title tilt in Orlando. Can Paul Smith and Tulsa make this trip to Disney a happy one? Let’s take a good hard look at the opponent:

UCF (9-3, 7-1)

Offense: The Knights’ offensive attack, quite frankly, begins and ends with running back Kevin Smith. All told, the offense is 33^rd best in the nation and 4^th in C-USA at 425.67 yards per game. The rushing attack has rolled up an awesome 237 yards per outing, good for 10^th nationally and 2^nd in the league. Smith is the horse, leading the nation at 180 yards per game. Smith is a fantastic running back in almost every way; he’s productive, obviously, but he’s also durable, with 20 or more carries in 11 of 12 games this year, and he’s consistent, with 124 yards or more in the same 11 games. A telling stat is this: in UCF’s three losses, Smith has put up his 9^th, 10^th and 12^th biggest rushing outings of the year. If Tulsa holds him to 140 yards or less, it’ll win. Period.

Under center, senior Kyle Israel has been the Knights’ mostly primetime signal caller after splitting a few early snaps with Michael Greco. The passing offense is 98^th in the nation and worst in the C-USA, but some of the weakness is due to the huge emphasis on running the football. In efficiency, UCF ranks 49^th nationally, a serviceable number, and Israel has been just good enough to take the heat off Smith. Israel is in the top 40 nationally in QB rating, with one of the best outings coming against Tulsa in October, where he threw for 21-29 for 224 yards and a TD. He’s certainly been better later in the year, with at least one TD the last 6 games, but he’s also thrown a pick in each of the last 4. The UCF attack shapes up as a classic “gang up on Smith, and make Israel beat you.” He might, but that strategy is truly Tulsa’s only hope.

Rocky Ross leads UCF in most receiving categories, with 3.75 catches and 47.33 per game. Ross is probably the only receiver in the country with almost 600 yards on the year that hasn’t topped 100 in any single game this year. He’s not a guy that is going to go off for 12 catches and 150 yards, but he is Israel’s standby in the passing game. The reality is, because Smith is going to draw all Tulsa’s focus, Ross will get his catches. Can they come at times which don’t break the D’s backs? We’ll see.

The offensive line O’Leary has built is a good one, and not just at plowing turf for Smith to conquer. They’ve protected Israel to the tune of just 1.33 sacks allowed per game, good for 2^nd in the C-USA. However, they are vulnerable. UCF doesn’t throw much, but Tulsa has to be much more active on the defensive front than in the October meeting. Roy Roberts got Tulsa’s only sack in part one. If Tulsa has to bring blitzes to get pressure, the potential for Smith’s home run scampers goes up a ton.

Defense: UCF’s D is one of the more balanced outfits in the C-USA. Ranking 46^th in rushing D, 53^rd in total D and 65^th in scoring. They haven’t been great in the red zone, so Tulsa will have to convert on every chance they can.

The overall strength of the D is certainly against the pass, setting up a great matchup with Paul Smith and the Tulsa offense. UCF’s pass efficiency is 1^st in the C-USA. They’re only 5^th in yards allowed, but that’s because they’ve got the most wins in the league and are constantly in the lead. It starts up front, where UCF is tops in the league in sacks and 3^rd in tackles for loss.

Sophomore linebacker Bruce Miller is a breakout star in the league, with 6 solo sacks and 33 total tackles. Miller got to Paul Smith twice in Orlando, Part One for two big sacks, and somebody better put a hat on him, because he’s got 5 sacks in the last 6 games, and will be Smith’s public enemy number one when he drops back to pass. Senior DL Leger Douzable also has 5 solo sacks and 12 TFL. It seems like Douzable’s tackles are always back breakers, with 50 total loss yards on the 12 this year. He’s a big key to UCF’s D, setting opponents in 2^nd/3^rd and unconvertible longs.

In the secondary, Joe Burnett is the guy avoid, with a conference leading 6 INT. Burnett is yet another member of the UCF defense that is on fire lately, with 4 picks in the last three games. Burnett is a pretty decent punt returner, too, when he gets the chance, but his main function is as a pass-deterrent, and he’s pretty good at it. Elsewhere in the secondary, Sha’reff Rashad is kind of a feast or famine ‘backer. Yeah, he’s got the 4 picks, but he also struggles to cover receivers in certain situations and is forced to make a ton of solo tackles to compensate. Rashad, in my mind, is the guy to pick on in the UCF secondary.

Special Teams: While Burnett is decent on the punt returns, Curtis Francis is the home run hitter returning kickoffs for the Knights. At 9^th in the nation with a 29 yards per return average, he hasn’t gotten a ton of chances to return balls since taking one to the house against East Carolina. Nevertheless, if he’s on the field, he shouldn’t be kicked to. Michael Torres is one of the nation’s most accurate kickers, with 16 of 18 field goals and 45 of 46 extra points. He’s obviously not part of the defensive game plan, but if Tulsa finds their chances riding on a Torres miss, they’ll be disappointed.

Prediction: Tulsa’s up against it in this one, folks. Almost everything UCF does well plays in to beating the Golden Hurricane, and we’ve already seen it once in the 44-23 drubbing in October. No way this contest gets that out of hand, but I don’t think Tulsa can hold Smith to a buck fifty, and Paul Smith might struggle just enough with the UCF corners to make one too many mistakes. I hope I’m wrong, but the money’s on UCF: UCF 38, Tulsa 28.

ACC Title Game Preview

Here we go again. It’s VT and BC for all the ACC marbles. This is the rematch most, if not all, Tech fans wanted, and now they’ve got it. I would say ‘be careful what you wish for’, but it’s a bit too late for that. Here we go, Hokies. Saturday preview, ACC Championship style:

Boston College (10-2, 6-2 ACC)

Offense: The BC attack is still led by Matt Ryan, who is still a great college quarterback, but the bloom is off the rose to some degree since BC lost twice to start November. Once BC got a couple losses on its resume, people started to notice that Ryan’s efficiency numbers were still lingering in the mid 40s nationally. Right now, Ryan sits at 52^nd in the country, which is still startling low for a QB being talked up as such a high round draft choice. The myth that a QB should be judged by wins alone is one of the great fallacies of football analysis, and Ryan gets a pass for his shortcomings as long as BC wins. Nevertheless, all it took was 5 great minutes from Ryan and the offense to offset 55 great ones from the VA Tech defense to get a win in Blacksburg.

Rushing isn’t the focus of the BC attack, but even when it is, the Eagles haven’t been great. I find it hard to believe that Andre Callender’s 902 rushing yards rank him 4^th in the ACC, but it’s a fact, and Callender hasn’t been good at all down the stretch, gaining just 278 yards in the last 5 games. Where Callender, and the entire BC offense has been excellent is in finding RBs out of the backfield. The senior has 43 catches in just the last 6 games, for 438 yards. That’s big time performance out of the backfield. Big time.

Speaking of receiving, the attack obviously doesn’t stop with Callender. Junior Brandon Robinson caught 50 balls in the season’s first 11 games, for 14.4 yards per catch, but didn’t play in the finale against Miami and can’t be counted on this weekend either. Sophomore Ryan Gunnell was outstanding in his stead, catching 9 balls for 135 yards. Gunnell was surprisingly good all year, with 54 catches for 749 yards, but looked especially deadly filling in for Robinson. Junior TE Ryan Purvis has 50 catches for 521 yards. Senior WR Kevin Challenger has 40 catches for 500 yards. The scariest thing about this BC attack is not Matt Ryan. I repeat: it’s not Matt Ryan. The scariest thing is the massive allotment of capable receivers, and the fact that any can step up on any day.

Up front, BC probably has best offensive line in the league. Tops in the league in protecting its QB, the BC line gives up 1.50 sacks a game, and that’s a pretty good number considering how much the Eagles throw the football. Ryan isn’t winning any elusiveness contests either, so you’ve got to give this line credit. Fans of the hogmollies have to be licking their chops getting ready to watch the VT front 7 do battle with this line.

Defense: Brandon Ore had some nice success against the BC defense in Round One, rushing for 97 yards on 20 carries, and Sean Glennon wasn’t bad either, throwing for 149 yards on 15 of 25 passing. Of course, Tech only put up 10 points, but efficiency and yardage wasn’t a huge problem.

The BC rush D is tops in the ACC and 2^nd in the nation, giving up just 66 yards per game. There aren’t a ton of dynamic offenses on the BC schedule, but that’s a great number up front. Up front, LB Alex Albright has 8 solo sacks and senior DL Nick Larkin has 4 solo sacks. These guys aren’t just stout against the run, they’re beasts at rushing the passer, and can hurt you in any number of ways. Jolonn Dunbar and Mark Herzlich are the 2^nd and 3^rd top tacklers on the team, and both had double digit tackle numbers in Blacksburg. They must be stopped. Period. They must be stopped.

DB Jamie Silva has 254 career tackles and 11 picks, including 110 this year. Silva made 15 solo tackles against FSU, which probably meant he wasn’t covering receivers well enough. He’s not a top flight cover corner, but when he has a chance to make a tackle, he doesn’t miss often. BC’s overall pass numbers aren’t great, but they’re a bit misleading. When you’re almost always ahead, teams throw on you. However, this is a secondary that ranks 106^th in the nation in pass defense, a brutal number especially in a league lacking many truly top-flight QBs. In fact, the best QB in the league plays on their own team. VT has to win this game through the air.

Special Teams: The biggest special teams play of the year in perhaps the entire ACC came in Round One when BC recovered an onside kick and went on to win the game. Kicker Steve Aponavicius hasn’t had a chance to kick a ton of field goals, but he’s been decent when given the chance, making 10 of 15. Not great, but decent. He probably won’t lose the game for BC. Punter Johnny Ayers booted for a 45 yard average on 9 punts in Blacksburg, and helped keep the Hokies far away from the goal.

Prediction: Virginia Tech gave away one game this year to BC. It won’t happen again. The Hokies have been wanting this rematch since October, and they’ve got it. VT is a 6 or so point favorite, and justifiably so. Matt Ryan hasn’t gotten any better since Blacksburg, and Sean Glennon has gotten much, much better. BC will dare Glennon to beat them, and guess what: he will. Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 17.

SEC Power Rankings: Final

Before we could blink, Nutt was out, and Nutt was in. The embattled Hogs coach has a new zipcode in Athens, and his hot seat in Fayetteville is still warm. How would the teams stack up on a neutral field tomorrow? Check it:

1. Georgia – The Bulldogs sit at 10-2, on the cusp of the national title contest, and cozily at home in front of the televisions for the SEC championship game. Obviously, every true Dawg would love a shot at the conference title, but with all the unpredictability in the nation this year, there has to be just a small part of every Georgia heart that doesn’t mind the view from the sofa. My SEC Coach of the Year ballot goes: 1. Mark Richt, 2. Sylvester Croom, 3. Tommy Tuberville.
2. Auburn – Yep, these are the best Tigers in the league. Auburn barely lost at LSU, and on a neutral field, there’s no reason to think Auburn wouldn’t pull out the win. Everyone freaked out early in the year when the Tigers lost at home to USF and Mississippi State. I’m not saying those were good losses, by any stretch, but looking at the season in hindsight: two September losses to quality bowl teams, two late season losses on the road to top-10 teams. Best 8-4 team in the country.
3. LSU – I’ve been saying it for weeks, but the Tiger defense has been incredibly average dating all the way back to the beginning of October. The repeated national recitation that LSU’s defense is a world beater is a classic example of how the national media picks a perception and then stops doing homework. Since beating Mississippi State 45-0, the Tiger D didn’t hold a single SEC offense below 24 points in regulation. Even in a league this loaded, that’s an impressive record of mediocrity.
4. Florida – Do you have any idea how badly the Gators are going to destroy whoever the Big Ten’s 4^th best team is in whatever Florida bowl they end up in? If Tim Tebow doesn’t win the Heisman, the biggest reason might be Tennessee and Kentucky’s 4 OT classic in Lexington. While Tebow was lighting up the ‘Noles with deadly passes to every part of the field, most of the country couldn’t see it because they were stuck watching UT and UK do battle.
5. Tennessee – The Vols got another “impressive” win that toed the line between lackluster and gutsy. Despite leading by a ton early, Kentucky had the game won at least twice, but couldn’t finish, sending the Vols to the title game. With UT and LSU both coming off multiple OT games with national and conference championships on the line, I’m betting we get some sloppy play in the first half of this weekend’s contest.
6. Kentucky – Only one team could win in Lexington, and somehow it didn’t end up being Kentucky. I get the feeling that 49 out of 50 states of the union were pulling for the ‘Cats, but a blocked FG and some poor red zone play calling by the UK offensive team kept the nation’s new longest heads up losing streak alive. You want the best evidence going that the SEC is much stronger than every other major league? UK finished 10^th in the SEC standings. 10^th place in the Big 12, Big 10, ACC and Pac-10? Nebraska, Northwestern, North Carolina, and Stanford. UK might be an all-star team of those four schools.
7. Arkansas – I gotta give credit to Arkansas for its win at LSU this weekend. Talk about vengeance. After a loss to LSU in the Rock last season cost Arkansas a shot at the national title, the Hawgs circled the wagons and exacted sweet revenge in the Bayou on the back of Darren McFadden and a very good offensive line. How do they celebrate revenge in Fayetteville? Sending the winning coach on the first train out of town, to Athens, Mississippi of all places.
8. South Carolina – Spurrier to LSU? That’s the whisper I keep hearing in SEC circles, and while I’m not totally sold, it would be an almost Shakespearean journey full circle. Nick Saban left LSU to coach in the pros, found himself overmatched and confused, and returned home to an SEC rival. Who might end up in his old digs? Spurrier, who left Florida to coach in the pros, found himself overmatched and confused, and returned home to an SEC rival. It’s rich. I hope it happens.
9. Mississippi State – Whew. The Bulldogs almost blew the whole thing with an awful first three quarters in the Egg Bowl, but somehow got it going just in time to beat Ole Miss and earn a bowl bid. I absolutely loved the display of emotion from Sly Croom after the game. In an era where plenty of coaches use every chance they get to campaign for players to win awards (Houston Nutt) or campaign for the next job (Brian Kelly), Croom almost couldn’t speak, he was so proud of his team’s journey this year. Bravo, Sly.
10. Alabama – What’s left to say about Alabama? 6-6 and probably out of the bowl hunt, ‘Bama had no offense (75^th in yards), no pass defense (9^th in the SEC), a poor QB (99^th in QB rating) and no consistency. Hold the groundbreaking on the Saban statue.
11. Vanderbilt – They brought this on themselves. Vandy had every chance in the world to go bowling this year. But they couldn’t finish against Georgia, couldn’t finish against Kentucky, couldn’t finish against Tennessee, and scheduled the defending ACC champion in late November. They brought this on themselves.
12. Ole Miss – Out with the Orgeron, in with the Nutt. David Cutcliffe had 5 of 6 winning season and got canned. Orgeron, hired as an ace recruiter, was given 3 seasons and 2 recruiting campaigns to build a team. Now comes Houston Nutt, who isn’t exactly known as a great game day schemer. ESPN’s Pat Forde wrote this week that no school in the nation has more ridiculous expectations than the Rebs. I can’t disagree.

C-USA Power Rankings: Final

Two 2,000 yard rushers, three coaching changes and a boat load of points. And that’s just the last two weeks. Final C-USA Power Rankings of the year, on three. Ready, break!

1. UCF – I lean toward the Knights this week. Tulsa impressed me a lot in recent weeks, but didn’t bring it at Rice this weekend, and it’s hard to argue with the league’s best conference record and, perhaps, the league’s best player. Anyone a bit surprised that Vegas has UCF a full 7 point favorite over the Golden Hurricane. I am.
2. Tulsa – Paul Smith led the league in passing yards by almost 1,000, a pretty amazing feat in any league, and even more so in the C-USA where defenses almost seem disappointed if you don’t throw for 300 on them. And yet Tulsa just couldn’t put away Rice, giving up 700 yards and an astounding 38 first downs in 104 plays against the Owls. Will the defense make the trip to Orlando, or just let Smith fend for himself?
3. Houston – Cougar coach Art Briles is headed to Baylor to take on one of D-I’s hardest, least glamorous and most frustrating jobs. He leaves behind a Cougar program with a recent track record of success that should be bowling again this year. What kind of coach will Houston get to take over a program on the rise in prime recruiting territory in a conference where you can make a splash early? I’m betting it’s a good one. Todd Dodge from North Texas? Maybe.
4. ECU – I’ve said it before, but if the Pirates don’t snag a bowl bid, Skip Holtz needs only look at his schedule makers. This is truly a top flight C-USA team/program now. There’s no excuse to miss a bowl game because they’re playing VA Tech, No. Carolina, W. Virginia and NC State in the same season. None. You’re telling me the Pirates can’t get a home and home with a top MAC or Sun Belt school and get it on ESPN2 early in the year?
5. Memphis – The Tigers’ turnaround this year was truly one that could pay huge dividends for this program down the road. I’m not in the locker room, so I don’t know what went on in there, but Memphis rallied to win 6 of its last 7 C-USA games following the tragic death of lineman Taylor Bradford after the team had looked pretty awful, starting 0-3 against FBS teams in the month of September. Now, the Tigers are off to the New Orleans Bowl. Well done, Memphis.
6. Southern Miss – OK, Southern Miss. Who exactly do you think you are? The company line is that Jeff Bower “resigned”, but we’ve heard that one before. The writing is on the wall that FBS’ 4^th longest tenured head coach was forced out following a 5-3/7-5 season that will end when the Golden Eagles play a major Big East school in the PapaJohns.com Bowl on December 22. If, indeed, Bower was shown the door, there better be some serious behind-the-scenes stuff going on, because if not…So. Miss is buried in SEC territory, and now under the shadow of the improving Mississippi State. There’s a difference between ambition and folly. Firing Bower would qualify as the latter.
7. Tulane – You’re Matt Forte. You ran for 2,127 yards and 23 TD. You’re a beast. But the rest of your team is really, really bad, you’re getting no love from the national media, you’re going nowhere for the holidays except Christmas dinner, and there’s a great chance you won’t finish better than 3^rd in the voting for player of the year in your own conference. Maybe you can ask Santa for a passing game.
8. Marshall – From the Better Late Than Never File, Bernard Morris set the league on fire starting Halloween weekend, turning Huntington in to the C-USA’s most formidable homefield advantage over the homestretch. Marshall went 3-0 at home starting with the Rice win. Maybe next year they’ll win a road game.
9. Rice – If somebody has a fire extinguisher, they may want to use it on Chase Clement. Clement threw for 1,658 yards in the last four games, and ran for over 300 yards in those four contests as well. Good grief. 26:9 TD:INT ratio in C-USA play ain’t too bad either. Can Clement make a run in the player of the year race next year? It almost helps that the Rice D is so bad…the more 60 passing attempt games for Clement, the better.
10. UTEP – Second half Miners, meet first half Miners. First half Miners were 4-2, and they beat Tulsa, the league’s most explosive team. The First Half Miners fought until the end of games, and always provided exciting finishes. Isn’t that impressive? They even battled deadly Texas Tech all the way to the end of the game. What’s that, Second Half Miners? You don’t know how these guys turned in to you and your 0-6 second half record? Me neither.
11. SMU – When did Phil Bennett lose this time? The season opening 49-9 drubbing vs. Texas Tech? The brutal 21-7 loss at TCU they really should have won? The official announcement of his firing? Maybe he never did, considering the Ponies were with 10 points in 6 of the 8 C-USA losses. Regardless, it’s the beginning of a new era in Dallas. Here’s betting the coaching pool at Houston is a bit better.
12. UAB – The Blazers outpaced SMU in wins, but the losses were much, much uglier. Where as SMU was within 10 in 75% of the league games, UAB was beaten by 16 or more in 60% of its losses this year. Looking across the border at the Southern Miss coaching staff getting pinkslips, you think the UAB staff expanded office hours?

MAC Power Rankings: Final

This is it for 2007. We’ve got a championship game in the offing, but the regular season is in the can. It’s been a typically wild year; lots of great finishes, explosive offense, and great storylines all over the league. For old time’s sake, how do they stack up this Wednesday morning? Let’s do it:

1. Ball State – I’ve thought all year that the Cardinals are the league’s best team, and I’m sticking to it. BSU has only itself to blame for not earning the trip to Detroit this weekend, and that’ll be true if they don’t go bowling as well. But they really deserve it. This team could definitely give a mid-pack Big East team a run in the International Bowl.
2. Central Michigan – CMU is a 4 point favorite in Detroit this weekend, and I think the Chips will defend their title with a win over Miami. The Chippewas have taken care of business in every MAC game that mattered this year, and I think they’ll earn a touchdown win the title tilt. Dan LeFevour and Antonio Brown are near locks for Player and Freshman of the Year.
3. Miami – You could make a compelling argument for Bowling Green in this spot, based on its 8 wins and better overall MAC record. However, I give the Redhawks a pass of sorts for the Ohio loss. They already had the East wrapped up, and they were playing a road game against a rival playing for a .500 season. Oh yeah, and they beat BGSU by about 200 just four weeks ago. Will Shane Montgomery edge Turner Gill for coach of the year? It’ll be close, believe me.
4. Bowling Green – The Falcons should be bowling somewhere after a dominating win over Toledo with the Peace Pipe on the line. Let me make a quick case for the Falcons making a bowl game: they’ve won their last 4 games, they’re 8-4, they score a ton of points, they have three players that can throw, run and catch TDs, and after speaking to a few fans at the Battle for I-95, I have a gut feeling they’ll travel.
5. Buffalo – I’m sticking with the Bulls in the upper division even though they undeniably lost a step late in the year. Still, 5-7 is a monumental step forward for this team, and I’m in the camp thinking that Coach Gill will be around for a couple years, at least. Buffalo will have to go a bowl game before speculation turns to offers, and I’m telling you right now – next year will be that year. Meet your 2008 MAC Champs.
6. Ohio – The Bobcats showed glimmers of what we expected from them all year in a season-ending win over Miami, and a wrap-up streak that saw them win 3 of their last 4, including triumphs over BGSU and the Redhawks. Based on results alone, you’d have to conclude this team had a hard time bringing it’s A game every night: wins over the division’s best two teams, and losses to the worst two.
7. Western Michigan – I’ve been skeptical of WMU all year, but I’ve got to give them big ups for finishing the year strong when some teams would have packed it in and gotten out the golf clubs. The win at Iowa wasn’t over a great team, but it was a Big Ten win, and the Broncos capped the year by pounding Temple. Can Bill Cubit figure out how to get along with QB Tim Hiller in the offseason?
8. Akron – Akron gave CMU a big scare on the penultimate senior day in the Rubber Bowl before succumbing to the top seeded Chips. Jabari Arthur had a pretty monster year statistically, with 86 catches and 1171 yards, but every time I saw this team in person, Arthur never really seemed in the flow of the offense. Still, the numbers don’t lie, and he was the best receiver in the league on numbers alone.
9. Eastern Michigan – Along with Ohio, the Eagles were the most confusing team in the league this year, bringing the big guns to in-state showdowns against WMU and CMU (to win the Michigan MAC), but failing to do much of anything against the rest of the league. In hindsight, it makes a bit of sense – the cross-state showdowns gave EMU a little extra juice, but Jeff Genyk doesn’t have the horses for the entire 12 game grind. Yet.
10. Toledo – If you want to be entertained, the Rockets are your team. No team in the league was as capable of putting up 70 (vs. NIU), giving up 30 (9 times out of 12), winning dramatic last-minute victories (by 1 over ISU and Liberty) or possessing any number of thrilling characteristics. Jalen Parmele is the most underrated player in the league, but at least the Rockets are exciting.
11. Temple – The budding rivalry in this league is Al Golden vs. Turner Gill, and Temple vs. Buffalo. Geographically, the schools are the league’s two outsiders to the East. They’re also the league’s two most recent admits. Throw in to the mix that each coach has his program on the rise and you’ve got a rivalry for the MAC’s eastern seaboard that will last as long as each coach does at his respective school. In this writer’s mind, they’re also the top two picks for the East in 2008.
12. Kent State – Hopefully, KSU coach Doug Martin gave thanks for Eugene Jarvis over Thanksgiving turkey. Jarvis ended the year with a league leading rushing 1669 yards, and a team leading 306 receiving yards. That’s almost 2000 yards on a team where no one else topped 500, and that player, Julian Edelman, missed the season’s second half with injuries. How bad would 3-9 KSU have been without Jarvis?
13. Northern Illinois – Congratulations, Joe Novak. You built a solid program, gave the NIU fans tons of great memories, gave the NFL some great small-college running backs, won a couple division titles. You also made a lot of friends along the way, known around the league press as the consummate nice guy who did things with class and a sense of humor. Well done, sir.

C-USA Preview: Week 13

Some of the nation is done for the year, but not C-USA. All 12 conference teams are in action on the season’s final big weekend, and both divisions are still in question. What’s big, what’s blah, and what’s somewhere in between? Check it:

Game of the Week:
Tulsa at Rice - Win, and you’re in (Part 1). Tulsa needs a win over Todd Graham’s old Rice squad to advance to the conference title game. The ‘Cane deftly avoided a landmine at Army last week, and should come to Houston a bit more focused and sharp than they were in upstate New York. Still, these are the kind of games that tend to surprise folks, what with Rice’s resurgent play of late and the Graham factor to add a little awkwardness to the equation. I think Tulsa returns to its days of squeakin’ it out, getting a late Paul Smith TD to ice the win and the title. Tulsa 38, Rice 30.

UTEP at UCF - Win and you’re in (Part 2). With a victory over UTEP, the Knights won’t just advance to the title game, they’ll host it, with the league’s best overall mark at 9-3 and 7-1. The Knights are currently on a 5 game heater that started with a Week 8 triumph over Tulsa. UTEP has stunk up the joint since failing to capitalize on a fortuitous midseason homestand, but I’ve gotta think the Miners have one big outing left in them. IF UTEP comes out with a chip on its shoulder, this one stays close. That’s a big IF, but I don’t think UCF ices it until late, late in the fourth. UCF 41, UTEP 30.

Best of the Rest:
Tulane at E. Carolina - The Pirates are still shaking their heads over the Marshall loss, which will haunt the bunch well in to the offseason. Still, if ECU gets to 7-5 with a win over Tulane, they’ll be bowling. ECU is one of the best equipped Ds in the league to stop yardage machine Matt Forte, and nobody takes care of the ball better than the Pirates, who lead the league in turnover margin with a whopping +1.27 per game. Forte gets 150, but ECU gets the win and the postseason ticket. ECU 38, Tulane 20.

Ho Hum:
Arkansas State at Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are one of three key C-USA teams sitting on 6-5 and needing a win to really cement the bowl hopes. The Indians are a scrappy Sun Belt squad that caused big problems for good teams early (lost by 8 to Texas, beat Memphis), so So. Miss knows they’re dangerous. Still, the gut says that the Eagles are significantly better and have too much to play for following a topsy turvy regular season. Show me another team that has lost to Rice but beaten ECU. So. Miss 38, Arkansas State 29.


SMU at Memphis - The Tigers are rolling, with four wins in their last five, and only the triumph over UAB not coming down to the wire. Now, they get SMU, who hasn’t won sine September, trying to send off coach Phil Bennett in atypical fashion: with a win. Martin Hankins might be the second half MVP of the C-USA, and he should be in line for another big game here. Still, beware: SMU has a ton of close losses, and the Tigers have a ton of close wins. Eventually, the ball has to bounce the other way. Memphis 34, SMU 30.

Booooooring:
UAB at Marshall - OK, this game probably won’t BE boring, but the implications are. UAB is playing for...uh, pride? The term is loosely defined when applied to a UAB squad that hasn’t been within two TDs in any of its losses since September. The Blazers are trying to claw their way out of last, but no visiting team has won in Huntington since Southern Miss on October 21st. When you look at this UAB squad, do you see “trend buster”? Didn’t think so. Marshall 40, UAB 16.

Texas Southern at Houston - The Cougars will put on a good show in whatever bowl they end up in, assuming they take care of business against Texas Southern this weekend. It shouldn’t be a problem, although it may take until a bowl game for the Cougs to get over the humiliation at Tulsa. I don’t know alot about Texas Southern, but I know this: this is a 0-10 FCS team playing on the road against a relative in-state power. They’ll play with heart, but very little skill. Houston 48, Texas Southern 9.

Preview: Virginia Tech at Virginia

This is it. In-state ACC rivals that took last spring’s basketball crown down to the wire are headed to the finish line neck and neck in football as well. No hype necessary. Who wins the Commonwealth and the division in 2007? Let’s get to it:

Virginia (9-2, 6-1 ACC)

Offense: The Cavs haven’t been very good on offense this year. Their rushing attack ranks 88th nationally, the passing attack is 73rd. On total yards, they rank 99th. Scoring, 80th. However, that being said, the ACC has been a league dominated by defense. Even the 99th ranked total yardage D is only 8th out of 12 in the league, not bad considering there are only 20 worse teams in all of FBS, and 4 of them happen to be in the ACC.
QB Jameel Sewell ranks 5th in the league in total offense and is one of the big reasons the Cavs have been able to squeak out 5 wins by 2 points or less. Sewell has made some big throws down the stretch to put UVA in positions to kick late FGs or run clock at crucial moments. In the two recent games where his arm hasn’t been the story, his legs have been. Sewell ran for 64 yards against Pitt and 66 against UCONN, meaning he’s put up 200 yards of total offense for 7 straight games, dating back to September 22. You can’t buy that kind of consistency at QB, and Sewell deserves serious consideration for ACC MVP - not best player, but most valuable player.
The running game isn’t great, but sophomore back Mikell Simpson has come on in recent weeks. After gaining negative -9 yards in the Cavs’ first 7 games, Simpson has come on in full time duty for 328 yards in the last 4 games, giving UVA an efficient counterpunch to Sewell’s passing. Simpson hasn’t had a big game against a top-flight D of VA Tech’s caliber, so this test should be interesting. Keith Payne hasn’t seen much playing time since Simpson started to heat up, but when he goes, the freshman can gain some yards as well; 69 against Maryland and 70 vs. MTSU. Sewell gets a few carries as well, averaging about 20 yards a game rushing, a decent number considering how harmful the 2.07 sacks per game surrendered by the Cavs hurt his rushing numbers.
As for the rest of the offense, UVA does a nice job of distribution, getting 3 catches per game from three different receivers. Simpson hasn’t been consistent throughout the year, but his astounding 13-catch, 152 yard performance against Maryland has him at the top of the catch list. Jonathan Stupar, a senior TE, has been a rock for Sewell, catching 2 or more passes in every game but one all year. Stupar is one of the best safety valves you’ll see, and look for him to have a huge game as Sewell will likely have to throw a lot of dump passes in the face of VA Tech’s pass rush.
The offensive line has been pretty ho hum, giving up 2.09 sacks a game, 5th in the league. Sewell does have some scramble ability, so that’s not a great number. Like every unit on the squad, this bunch has stepped it up in the fourth quarter. They won’t wear down - VA Tech has to bring heat for 60 minutes.

Defense: Overall, the D has been the strength of the Cavs, by far. 17.45 points allowe per game is good for 10th nationally, and second in the ACC to only your Hokies. The D is also 18th in yards, and the squad as a whole is 39th in turnover margin. You’d be hard pressed to find an overall unit as balanced as UVA. The Cavs are 23rd nationally against the pass and 18th against the run. More than anything, this may be a function of how many close games UVA has been in, so teams rarely go in to strictly run or pass modes.
The front seven is pretty darn good, ranking 13th nationally in sacks, and that all starts with Chris Long, son of legendary linebacker Howie Long. Long is a ferocious talent at DL, with 12 sacks on the year, good for an ACC-leading, 5th national average of 1.09 per game. Unlike some other big sack guys, Long isn’t just a sack artist, either. He has 69 tackles, 19 of which have come in opponents’ backfields. Stop Long, move the ball. It’s that simple.
Long isn’t the only big skill player in the front seven, though. Junior LB Clint Sintim has 67 tackles on the year and 5 solo sacks. Sintim is hard to erase from the the game plan, with 7 or more tackles in each of the last three games. Junior LB Jon Copper is UVA’s leading tackler, with 92 stops, good for 11th in the ACC. Copper has hit the 7 tackle mark in every single game this year, an astounding comment on the junior’s commitment and consistency. He’s also come from the LB spot to get 10 TFL, 3 sacks and 2 picks, and is easily the squad’s most versatile playmaker.

Special Teams: Senior Chris Gould doesn’t have a ton of FGs (1.36 per game, 8th in the league), but he does have at least one in 10 of the 11 games and has hit big kicks in the clutch to help UVA get the close ones. On the year, he’s 15 of 19, a pretty doggone solid number, and if he has a chance to win this game in the final minute, VA Tech is in trouble. Punter Ryan Weigand is outstanding, averaging 45.86 per kick, 4th nationally and best in the league. His giant foot has been a key to UVA’s success in the field position, defensive battles of the ACC.

Prediction: It all comes down to this. In my opinion, if VA Tech wins this game, they’re division champs and probably headed to the title game as a favorite. If they win, this year has a chance to be a success, with 11 and even 12 wins a possibility. If the Hokies lose, however, the season is a disappointment, and will be marked by a “so close” memory.
There are times in life when two smart people can look at the same data and draw vastly different conclusions. It is certainly possible to look at UVA’s season and see a team full of clutch players, to see a team with a huge heart, to see a team that “knows how to win close ones”. And that’s probably all true, to some degree.
But, frankly, I see an average team that has gotten very good bounce, good break, and borderline call possible down the stretch, and is truly 6 points away from not being bowl eligible. VA Tech is 3.5 point favorites, and will cover the spread and then some. VA Tech 30, Virginia 17.

SEC Power Rankings: Week 13

We’ve got teams playing for the BCS, teams playing for bowl eligibility, teams playing for rivalry trophies, and teams playing for pride. It’s the SEC, Week Thirteen. Who would beat who on a neutral field tomorrow? You might be surprised...

1. Georgia - Who would you pick to beat the Bulldogs on a neutral field right now? LSU, and its defense that hasn’t held an SEC team under 24 points since September 22nd? Florida, and its defense, that didn’t hold a single SEC team under 20 points all year? For now, I’m taking the ‘Dawgs, who are just about toe to toe with either of those squads on offense, and have held Okie State, So. Carolina, Ole Miss, Vandy, Auburn and Kentucky to 20 points or less.

2. LSU- The Tigers are going to the national title game, in all likelihood, after this week’s win over Arkansas and a title game triumph over Tennessee. When they get there, I’m a little concerned that folks will expect last year’s Florida Gators and be down on the SEC when they don’t get it. I’m not concerned at all at the close margin of LSU’s recent losses - what alarms me is how quickly their defense seemed to go from world beater good to just plain average once the competition level stepped up.

3. Florida - Congratulations to Tim Tebow, who seems like a pretty good guy despite being a Gator, and will likely walk away with the Heisman Trophy in Manhattan two weeks from now. 20 passing TDs, 20 rushing TDs, SEC competition? That’s definitely Heisman worthy, and will give Urban Meyer’s program a nice little offseason jolt as they prepare to pound the Big Ten’s third or fourth best team in some Florida bowl.

4. Auburn - Here’s another defense that looks elite against the lowlifes but can’t stop SEC’s best teams. Auburn’s D gave up 20 points in a four game span from October 6 to November 3rd - problem is, when they played LSU and Georgia, they couldn’t get off the field. Quick shout out to the Tiger punting game, which leads the nation in net punting average on the heel of Ryan Shoemaker’s toe. The kid averages 44.19 yards a kick, best in the league, and boasts great hang time.

5. Tennessee - The road to Atlanta runs through Kentucky, and Vegas’ early line has the Vols as 2 point underdogs to the home field Wildcats. UT has won four straight and seven of eight, but the wins aren’t quite like LSU’s gutcheck specials. The Vols keep squeaking by teams, and now head on the road for the first time since October 20th when they got pounded at Alabama. Here’s my tip: create some fake news headlines that suggest Fulmer’s job is on the line. That usually makes UT play its best.

6. Kentucky - The ‘Cats couldn’t finish the first half against Georgia, and paid for it by surrendering locker room momentum to the Bulldogs. The defense isn’t raking up nearly enough TFL, ranking 11th in the league, and also hasn’t been able to keep teams out of the end zone, at 11th in the league in scoring. There could be a big difference in how this season is viewed in Wildcat Country based on Saturday’s finale vs. Tennessee.

7. Arkansas - I have to give the Hogs credit for knocking off a hungry Mississippi State squad in the “home” finale this weekend. Even more shocking was how successful Casey Dick was throwing the football. How much would you have bet that Dick would never throw 4 TD against no picks? Well, it happened. Bad news: McFadden will be the first draft pick, but isn’t even the MVP in his own conference.

8. South Carolina - The Gamecocks aren’t getting the respect of Vegas this weekend, as a 2.5 point underdog on their home field against Clemson. With two weeks to prepare on its home turf against the road-weary, hated Tigers, I’ll take the Gamecocks and the points, thank you very much. The league’s best pass D is going to thrash whatever poor squad it gets in the Nobody Cares Bowl.

9. Mississippi State - After the huge win over ‘Bama, Mississippi State couldn’t defend the pass in Little Rock and now needs an Egg Bowl win to go bowling. Jamayel Smith looked like Terrell Owens against the Hogs, and if Anthony Dixon follows suit, this should be an easy win. However, programs like MSU’s are pretty good at finding ways to lose games like this one against Ole Miss. I’m rooting for them. The SEC could use another good team.

10. Alabama - Nick Saban’s contract: $32 million. Season tickets to Crimson Tide football games: $450. Senior Day loss to UL-Monroe: Priceless.

11. Vanderbilt - Vandy!! The sad inability to finish off a potential season-making win at in-state bully Tennessee puts the Commodores in the unenviable position of needing to beat Wake Forest in the finale to get to .500. Will this be a let down game after the big fourth quarter choke? On talent alone, Vandy can and should win. Above the shoulderpads, I’m skeptical.

12. Ole Miss - Here’s your task, Rebs: ruin your rival’s season by beating them on their home turf and keeping them out of bowl consideration. No doubt the Egg Bowl is going to be close, but the Rebel defense is 12th in the league in every single major category; rush D, pass D, total D, scoring D, turnover margin. That’s a bad recipe playing against a team with a hot offense and a mission.

C-USA Power Rankings: Week 13

Here we are. One week to go. Some teams have nothing to play for, and some teams have everything to play for. How would they stack up a neutral field tomorrow?

1. UCF - I keep wiggling back and forth between Tulsa and UCF for the top spot. The Knights are riding a 5-game winning streak which includes wins over Tulsa and Southern Miss in to El Paso this Saturday. You can’t look past the Miners, but if UCF wins and then hosts the C-USA title tilt, that’s a 10-win season. Anything short of a league title is a big disappointment now.
2. Tulsa - The Golden Hurricane looked just vulnerable enough at Michie Stadium for me to yank them from the top spot. I’m not concerned that Tulsa will lose the West, by any means, but 39 points is a lot to surrender, even to an inspired Cadet bunch playing on senior day. That’s the 115th best offense in the country we’re talking about, and it lit up the Tulsa D for 500 yards.
3. East Carolina - The Pirates are still trying to figure out how they lost to Marshall. They can still go bowling, perhaps, with a win over Tulane on senior day. Looking back on the schedule, and seeing how hard they’ll have to fight to get 7 wins, wouldn’t it be nice to trade either VA Tech, W. Virginia or NC State for an easy victory? The difference between 7 and 8 wins is huge come bowl season.
4. Memphis - Without any breakout candidates, Memphis’ Tommy West might be the C-USA coach of the year. After team member Taylor Bradford was slain, the Tigers were 1-3 and looking terrible. Since then, they’re 5-1 in C-USA with only a loss to ECU. Memphis will probably be bowling with a win over SMU on Senior Day. The offense has climbed all the way to 23rd nationally on the arm of Martin Hankins, and the Tigers are one of C-USA best teams in the turnover battle, ranking 17th nationally.
5. Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are another team on the cusp of bowl eligibility, and will get there with a win over Arkansas State Saturday. What does this say about the league - So. Miss has the C-USA’s best scoring defense, but the unit ranks only 45th nationally. If this team scheduled like Kansas, it would be 8-3.
6. Houston - Call me when the Cougs recover from the Tulsa beat down last Saturday. Houston almost became the third team in a month to fall prey to the upstart Herd, but survived to get to 7-4 and keep their West hopes a live. If they win, it’ll be backdoor style, as their C-USA slate is done, and they have to hope that Tulsa loses to Rice. My gut tells me this a defense that could get exposed in a bowl game.
7. Tulane - Matt Forte will be a victim of Troy Davis syndrome, getting no Heisman love whatsoever because his teammates are so bad. I’m not suggesting Forte should win the award, or even be a finalist, but you haven’t heard his name mentioned at all, despite the fact that 2,000 yards is still a sacred mark in college football. Well, it used to be. Don’t you think of Forte played for Tulsa or Houston, he’d get some votes.
8. Marshall - There’s a big cleft right now between bad C-USA teams that stopped trying and bad C-USA teams that kept fighting. Marshall has kept fighting, and will likely get its third win in the last 5 over UAB this weekend. That’s an admirable turnaround, if only dual threat stud Bernard Morris were going to be around next year. Running back Darius Marshall is the future in Huntington, but he’s got a ways to go, especially without Morris to distract attention next year.
9. Rice - I’ll throw Rice in the “still fighting” camp as well. Ever sine the watershed win in Hattiesburg, the Owls have been in every single game, losing by 8 and 3 to Houston and Memphis and 13 and 14 to Marshall and Tulane. How worried am I that the Owls can spring one on Tulsa? Not terribly, but with the way Chase Clement is throwing the ball right now, who knows what kind of chances will be there against the Tulsa D?
10. SMU - 100 copies of Phil Bennett’s resume from Kinko’s: $99. Season tickets to SMU football: $200. 9 straight losses to end an embattled coach’s regime: Priceless.
11. UTEP - And now we get to the teams that stopped trying. Either El Paso is the biggest home field advantage in football, or UTEP gave up after losing by a FG to ECU and Houston back in October. Since then, the defense has been in offseason mode, giving up 56 to Rice and Southern Miss, while the offense mustered only 19 against Tulane. And still, I wouldn’t be one bit shocked if the Miners laid the wood to UCF this weekend. They’re just that kind of team.
12. UAB - When you’re ranked behind a team on a 9-game cooler and another that hasn’t given a crap since Halloween, you know you really stink up the joint. UAB is the rare C-USA squad: awful on both offense and defense, leaving the Blazers down and out but with hope for the future. Of the big playmakers, only senior QB Sam Hunt won’t be back next year.

MAC Power Rankings: Week 13

1. Ball State - I have to admit, I’ve been dying to put the Cardinals in this spot all year. Not because I’m a BSU fan or anything; I’ve just thought Ball State was the league’s best team all year, but had one terrible defensive game on the worst day possible, losing the division to CMU. Don’t get me wrong, the Chips deserve the West title, but if the season started over today, I’d pick Ball State.
2. Central Michigan - OK, being upset in a rivalry game is one thing, but giving up 48 points to Eastern Michigan? Seriously? How CMU responds this week at Akron will be one of the league’s most interesting stories. The undefeated MAC campaign is over, but now CMU has to beat Akron to guarantee a bowl game regardless of how the title tilt turns out. Will the defense answer the bell against the MAC’s worst offense?
3. Miami - Other than a midseason loss at Temple, the Redhawks have stepped up every single week, mostly on the strength of what is easily the league’s best defense. He won’t win the award, but LB Clayton Mullins deserves your consideration for Defensive Player of the Year. With an average MAC defense, the Redhawks have 4 wins tops, and Mullins seems to be in the mix on every big play.
4. Bowling Green - Who has the most wins in the conference? Yep, its the Falcons, after last week’s emphatic win at UB Stadium, which had already vexed East counterparts Ohio and Toledo. With a win this Friday in the Battle for I-95, the Falcons will have 8 wins, a 4-game winning streak, a rivalry win, and the league’s top passing attack. You think some bowl scouts aren’t dying for that combination?
5. Buffalo - Turner Gill’s awesome second campaign in Buffalo won’t end in Detroit, courtesy of the squad’s 31-17 loss to BGSU this weekend. I was a little surprised, as I thought the Bulls would knock off the Green, but it didn’t happen. Still, this is probably my pick to win the East in 2008. Drew Willy, James Starks, Mario Henry and the vastly underrated Naaman Roosevelt all return, giving Buffalo the league’s most potent returning combination on offense.
6. Akron - With the return of John Mackey, Akron’s defense has improved, peaking in a stunning shutout of Miami last week at Yager. Here’s the problem - the offense is worse than ever. Neither Chris Jacquemain or Carlton Jackson can throw downfield to save their life, and opposing Ds have been strong enough to take away Jabari Arthur from the Zip attack. The future is sophomore HB Alex Allen, who has looked explosive each of the three times I’ve seen the Zips in person.
7. Ohio - The Bobcats are a 3 point favorite over East Champ Miami on senior day at Peden, and I think it’s warranted. Now that Miami has the title wrapped up, they might lose a step, and with Ohio fighting for a .500 record on Senior Day, we should be in for a great ball game. Even though the Bobcats have been a bit of a disappointment this year, the D is still 2ndin the MAC in both sacks and TFL, led by Landon Cohen.
8. Toledo - After 85 seconds last Tuesday, the Rockets and Cardinals were on pace for 600 points. Both teams cooled their jets, but Toledo didn’t score in the second half, giving BSU a 41-20 victory. A victory this Friday over BGSU claims the Peace Pipe and gets Toledo to 6-6. The next time they get 7 home games, they’ll have to do better.
9. Eastern Michigan - You and I both know it: nobody has any clue how EMU is going to play on any given day. The league’s least predictable team beat up on the CMU defense for a 48-45 win, taking home the Michigan MAC trophy in style. Lost in all the unpredictability is the defense: how did a really salty unit in the early season, led by two of the league’s top 5 defenders, get so bad? In the last 5 MAC contests, EMU’s D held one opponent under 39 points.
10. Western Michigan - Credit to the Broncos. I’m telling you, the win at Iowa isn’t quite as impressive as some would like to think, but a major bravo for rebounding from a crushing loss to their rival to stun a Big Ten team in its own house. As bad as the MAC has been out of conference this year, this could really be the league’s signature win, not counting bowl season. Sad but true.
11. Temple - The Owls, like Buffalo, fought valiantly this year, but ran out of horses at season’s end. In hindsight, Adam DiMichele was easily one of the league’s most valuable players; Temple lost a ton of production and clutch play when he went down for the year. Al Golden and Turner Gill are going to be duking it out for league coach of the year honors for as long as both of them stick around.
12. Northern Illinois - The Huskies battled a capable Midshipmen squad, getting yet another 100 yard outing from Justin Anderson and what is backup QB Ryan Morris’ best game in awhile, certainly. Alex Kube was a beast, racking up 15 tackles, including 9 solos, but the Navy running attack was too much. Is this Joe Novak’s last year roaming the sidelines in DeKalb?
13. Kent State - Even in defeat, the Flashes represented the league well this weekend, battling Temple with a third-string QB, broken spirits, and nothing to play for but pride. The offense was brutal as Jon Brown threw 4 picks and converted just 2 of 12 third downs. Yet somehow KSU led 14-12 after three quarters before succumbing 24-14 in the fourth. Another valiant effort, another tough loss.

SEC Review: Week 12

The finish line is the next stop, but for now we’ve still got teams positioning themselves in the SEC’s year end pecking order. Here’s what went down this weekend:

Game of the Week

Tennessee 25, Vandy 24 - UT clung to its East lead by the slimmest of margins, and beat Vandy by 1 in a game the Commodores have made a career out of losing. After three quarters, Vandy led 24-9, but the Vols got off the mat with a 7 yard TD toss from Erik Ainge to Josh Briscoe. A few minutes later, Austin Rogers caught a 5 yard pass from Ainge, but a failed 2-point conversion left the Vols down, 24-22. A Daniel Lincoln FG won it with 2 and a half to play. How did Vandy get so bad in the fourth quarter? In the entire fourth, the Commodores got one first down, and that came courtesy of a UT pass interference call. This one is going to sting.

Best of the Rest

Georgia 24, Kentucky 13 - The Bulldogs took another step toward the BCS with a 24-13 win over Kentucky that was never over until the 2 minute mark, when Brandon Coutu hit a 46 yard FG to seal it. Things looked really bleak, as UGA trailed 10-0 late in the first half, but the ‘Dawgs trekked 80 yards in 4 minutes, getting a Knowshon Moreno 1-yard tumble to head to the locker room within 3. Then UGA took command, coming out gangbusters in the second half, forcing two three and outs and getting two quick rushing TDs to take command, 21-10. Moreno and Brown got a perfect 22-22 carry split, while the defense held UK’s rushing game to just 29 yards on 29 carries.

Arkansas 45, Mississippi State 31 - I can’t believe I’m writing this, but Arkansas actually beat a good football team on the strength of its passing game, not the running game. Casey Dick threw 14 of 17 for 199 yards and 4 TDs. Yes, I’m serious. Darren McFadden didn’t even get to 90 yards, but everything Arkansas tried through the air worked to perfection, including a D-Mac TD pass. Jamayel Smith, where have you been all my life? The MSU junior caught 10 balls for 208 yards, doubling his output on the year.

Ho Hum

UL-Monroe 21, Alabama 14 - I just want to go on record saying that this could have happened to any coach at any school. But for some reason, it’s just funnier that it happened to Nick Saban. Thank you, seniors, for your 4 years of toil. As a parting gift - you lose to UL-Monroe, a Sun-Belt squad fighting the war against mediocrity in its own league. Nevertheless, “flat” is a kind word to describe how Alabama played Saturday, turning the ball over 4 times and allowing Monroe to grind out 121 rushing yards. The average wasn’t great, but Monroe kept pounding, and Alabama couldn’t score after the 12 minute mark of the 2nd quarter. Ouch.

LSU 41, Ole Miss 24 - The Tigers haven’t been great for awhile, but luckily the brunt of their schedule is over. LSU got outgained by 70 yards and 4 first downs, but Ole Miss gave the ball away 4 times, and LSU benefited from Matt Flynn’s efficient passing. The Rebs got to within 10 with 9 minutes to play, but LSU milked some clock and got a 2 yard Jacob Hester TD run to really put it out of reach. Ole Miss rang up 466 yards of offense, and was solid with the ball in hand all day, but LSU’s attacking defense kept them from turning yards in to points.

Boooooooring

Florida 59, FAU 20 - This game has a scoring summary about as mercurial as they come. Florida scored the first 21 in a 7-minute first quarter flurry, before FAU roared back with 3 scores in 6 minutes to bring the margin to 21-13. By half it was 35-20 Gators, but the Owls wouldn’t score again. Tebow became the first player in college history to run and pass for 20 TDs in the same year, and pretty much wrapped up the Heisman Trophy with the achievement. FAU isn’t an awful football team by any stretch, but the ease with which the Owls scored in the first half has to trouble Gator fans a bit.

C-USA Review: Week 12

We’re coming up on season’s end now, and the final bell tolled for a bunch of teams across the land this Saturday. How did they finish the year, and who lived to tell about it? Check it out:

Game of the Week

Houston 35, Marshall 28 - The Cougars got off the mat following last week’s humiliating shellacking at Tulsa with a close win over Marshall that was still in doubt until the end. For three quarters, the game was quietly subdued, as Houston led 20-14 with 15 minutes to play. Then, the cork popped, as the teams traded TDs throughout the fourth, with the last coming on Kelvin Turner’s 1 yard run with two and a half to go. Marshall couldn’t score again, though, and the Cougs held on. If Todd Graham and Tulsa fail in the homecoming game vs. Rice, UH still grabs the West title.

Best of the Rest

Tulsa 49, Army 39 - It certainly wasn’t a defensive performance to write home about, but the Golden Hurricane dodged a textbook “Trap game” scenario and escaped Army with a win. Tulsa never really had the game wrapped up until 93 seconds remained, when QB Paul Smith ran in from a yard out, making it a 10 point margin for good. Smith dazzled, throwing with sharp efficiency and big play potential (22-32, 390 yards, 2 TD). Tulsa was especially clutch on third downs, grabbing 7 of 12 conversions.

Ho Hum

Southern Miss 56, UTEP 30 - The Miners didn’t just go in the tank during this year’s second half, they crawled in the tank, set up shop, and started getting their mail forwarded there. UTEP completed an epic second half collapse with a 26 point loss at home against Southern Miss, and gave up 40 points on D for the sixth time this year. The way the Miners are going right now, they wouldn’t fare well in the Texas High School Playoffs; all Southern Miss had to do was stay in bounds and not beat themselves; RB Damion Fletcher did that and then some, galloping for 211 yards on 34 carries, along with three scores.


Tulane 45, Rice 31 - Matt Forte is now the single season rushing leader in C-USA history, and there’s still one game left on the ticket. Forte has ripped off 2,007 yards in 2007, with 194 yards on 39 carries in this one, getting his fifth score with a full seven and a half minutes left in the game. Rice cut it to a 14 point game after that, but Ade Tuyo got in from 1 yard out to ice it for Marshall with two minutes to go. Chase Clement broke some records of his own on the Rice side of the ball, with 353 passing yards, setting a school record for 3,319 offensive yards in a season.

Booooooooring

UCF 49, SMU 20 - The Knights drew one step closer to holding C-USA’s annual post season pow wow in Orlando, and that’s what’ll happen if they do to UTEP next week what they did to SMU this Saturday. The Ponies haven’t won since Sept. 8th, and the Phil Bennett farewell tour continued in style, as SMU was once again unable to overcome turnovers and mental letdowns to stay competitive. This is the kind of play that has marked the Bennett regime in Dallas, and it was on display yet again in the second quarter; with SMU just 2 minutes from heading to the locker room competitive, down 28-13, the ‘Stangs let Kevin Smith tromp 80 yards for a score, to send them to the break tails between their legs. Smith finished with 177 on just 20 carries; Kyle Israel was efficient as ever with 11-16 passing for 173 yards.


Memphis 25, UAB 9 - Memphis cracked the ranks of the bowl eligible for the fourth time sine 2003 with a boring win over UAB that brought the Blazers’ abysmal campaign one step closer to a merciful end. The Tigers got their fifth C-USA win of the year thanks to Martin Hankins’ ability to terrorize the UAB defense on a day when he averaged 21 yards per completed pass. He only connected on 14, 4 of which went to rising star Duke Calhoun, but those accounted for 159 yards, including a long of 70. Kicker Matt Reagan nailed four FGs to keep Memphis scoring even when its drives were stalling in the red zone.

Miami 7, Akron 0

Miami moved one game closer to the MAC Championship game with a bizarre 7-0 win over Akron on Senior Night at Yager Stadium.

Neither offense scored the entire game, as the Redhawks picked up the night’s only score on defensive end Craig Mester’s fumble return touchdown with just under ten minutes to play. The score was Mester’s first at any level of football, and came on his final game in Yager Stadium.

“I picked some pretty good timing, don’t you think?” Mester quipped afterward.

Both defenses suffocated the offenses all night, forcing 17 punts altogether. The Redhawks were more successful moving the ball, but Akron picked off Daniel Raudabaugh passes in its own endzone on three straight possessions to keep the Redhawks at bay.

A Miami fumble gave Akron its best field position of the night to start the fourth quarter. The Zips advanced to the Redhawk 29 yard line before QB Chris Jacquemain badly underthrew Zip WR Jabari Arthur in the end zone for an interception. That drive followed 9 straight Akron possessions ending in punts.

Finally, Miami (4-1, 5-1, 6-5) broke the ice on Mester’s fumble return. Akron coach elected to give backup QB Carlton Jackson a try after Jacquemain struggled terribly all night (12-33, 116 yards, 2 INT). On Jackson’s first series, the Zips took over at their own 23.

Facing a third down and long, Jackson dropped to pass but was rushed by Miami LB Clayton Mullins. Mullins rocked Jackson’s arm as he went to throw, and the ball fell right in to Mester’s arms. The senior took it 7 yards for the score.

Mullins and the Miami defense owned the night, holding Akron to just 216 yards on 70 plays. Mullins himself had 5 TFL as the Redhawks repeatedly frustrated Akron’s offensive attack.

Both quarterbacks had brutal nights throwing the ball, with Jacquemain unable to find open targets and Raudabaugh continuously giving the ball away deep in Zip territory.

Most importantly for Miami, the Redhawks are now one win away from winning the MAC East and advancing to face CMU in the MAC title game in Detroit. If Miami loses to Ohio next Saturday at Peden Stadium, the Redhawks can still advance with a Buffalo loss to either Bowling Green or Kent State.

C-USA Preview: Week 12

Tons of seniors playing their final games, bowl bids in the balance, and division titles going down to the wire. If you don’t care by this point, I can’t help you. Here we go:

Game of the Week:

Southern Miss at UTEP – The Golden Eagles have been up and down all year, and now find themselves on the brink of elimination in the bowl hunt. A win over UTEP would make their case much stronger, but will the Miners make one last exciting stand on their home turf? No way this game gets decided by more than a TD either way; like every UTEP game, it’ll down to who can put together drives and get stops in the last 7 minutse of the contest. So. Miss has lost two C-USA battles by a FG or less – time to make it 3. With the year UTEP has had, I see no more fitting end than a 3 point win in 2OT. UTEP 44, So. Miss 41

Best of the Rest:

Marshall at Houston – All of a sudden, the Herd is putting a couple wins together and looking like they might be a mid-tier squad next year. How will Houston respond to the embarrassment at Tulsa last week? Marshall has been brutal on the road, going 0-5 with an average defeat of 19.6 points. The defense did a number on the ECU attack last week; how will they respond against the wounded Cougars? I gotta think Houston bounces back on the running of Aldridge this weekend…they’re too good not to. Right? Houston 37, Marshall 20.

Tulsa at Army – Michie Stadium is one of the nation’s finest football-watchin’ venues, and the Golden Hurricane get an exciting road trip as a reward for the huge Houston win. Any chance of a letdown? Maybe – there’s no way Tulsa is quite as good as they looked against the Cougars, given how uneven their early season performances were. On the other hand, will Army even be focused on Tulsa two weeks before the Navy game? I’d say the “overlooking the opponent” possibilities for each team cancels each other, and the best team will win by 2 touchdowns. Tulsa 38, Army 24.

Ho Hum:

Tulane at Rice – Rice has a shot at 4 C-USA wins, which would be a great feat for the weak Owl squad. Matt Forte would love to win that national rushing title, for something to tell his grandkids about, and if Tulane could notch a 4^th win of the year, that would be good too. Have I mentioned that Tulane’s actually had one of the league’s pass rushes this year? The Green Wave’s strength is up the middle, the weakness is on the edges. I think Forte tops 200 one more time, and the Wave rides him to a tight win. Tulane 30, Rice 26.

UCF at SMU – This one would be surely in the boring category if it weren’t for UCF’s newfound East lead. The Knights are two wins away from the title game, and SMU will be trying to give the title back to East Carolina in Phil Bennett’s last home game as SMU coach. The Ponies have lost their last 4 by 27 total points; not bad, but still, as Bill Parcells says, “You are what you are.” SMU is a 1-9 team, and some things never change: UCF 40, SMU 35.

Boooooooooring:

UAB at Memphis – The Tigers deserve some credit for rallying after the emotional death of Taylor Bradford for 4 wins in their last 6. Now, at 5-5, they could be going bowling with 2 wins over UAB and SMU. Two home games against the league’s two worst teams. Should be no problem, right? Well, Memphis hasn’t exactly overwhelmed anybody, and UAB is surely due for a good outing, since they haven’t given one since September. I don’t know why I’m doing this, call it a gut feeling: UAB 28, Memphis 24.

Virginia Tech vs. Miami Preview

Tech kept rolling against the Seminoles and I got back on the horse with an accurate prediction on the Tech vs. Florida State game. How will both of us perform this week when the wounded Canes come to town? Here we go:

Miami (5-5, 2-4 ACC)

Offense: Beware the wounded animal. Miami got absolutely humiliated in its final Orange Bowl game ever, 48-0, by the Cavaliers. How has it come this far? There’s been plenty, plenty of ink spilled lately over the Hurricanes’ descent from prominence, so I won’t beat the drum too hard here. But it still amazes me how this squad that was the boogeyman for my generation of school kids has fallen to mid-tier ACC status at best.

Looks like Kyle Wright will go in Blacksburg after a horrendous 9-21, 94 yards, 3 INT outing against the Cavs that made Virginia look as if a Tech should be added to their jerseys. The senior certainly doesn’t want to be as the rare ‘Cane QB that doesn’t lead his squad to a bowl game, but he hasn’t completed more than 9 passes in a game since October 6^th. Sure, he’s been splitting time under center, but the question has to be asked: even if he has the full confidence of his coaches, can Wright play strong for an entire game? The Tech D should be able to feast on this guy. His big outings this year have come against weak competition: 224, 275, 230 and 302 against FIU, TAMU, Duke and No. Carolina. Against Oklahoma, GA Tech, Florida State and Virginia? Not an outing above 94 yards, and a 2:4 TD:INT ratio.

‘Cane RB Javarris James has the bloodlines, and he may also hold the key to Miami’s offensive success. In James’ 5 biggest outings of the year, the ‘Canes haven’t lost in regulation (they went down in OT on his biggest performance against NC State). In games where he runs for 55 yards or less, Miami is 1-4. Obviously, the young James gives Miami a spark it can’t duplicate elsewhere. RB Graig Cooper has been more solid game to game (7 of 10 games between 48 and 80 yards), but isn’t quite the sparkplug James is. Both players are young and should struggle against a hungry VA Tech D.

Darnell Jenkins is the only Hurricane WR that has even been passable as a big play threat this season, at 25 catches for 570 yards, but even then, the 2.5 catches per game is a really small number for a program built on speedy playmakers at the edge. Jenkins has been hut by QB play, to be sure, but hasn’t been nearly consistent enough to warrant high praise. The entire WR corps has been plagued by inconsistency, as almost all have had one big game but not been able to get open steadily. Lance Leggett, Sam Shields and Cooper all have some potential to hurt a defense, but don’t do it consistenly.

Defense: The D isn’t awful statistically but doesn’t have the stunning athleticism of the past top ‘Cane units. Overall, the D is 27^th nationally and 6^th in the ACC in yards surrendered, but just 43^rd and 8^th in points given up. The ‘Cane D hasn’t been mentally tough enough to be able to get the big stops needed to stop yards from turning in to points.

Up front, Miami does have 3 of the league’s sackers in Calais Campbell, Vegas Franklin and Teraz McCray. This is a unit where the ‘Canes have been good this year, at 4^th in the ACC in sacks and 3^rd in TFL. Campbell is probably the best athlete of the bunch. He’s picked off a pass, caught a pass, and registered 13 TFL and 7 sacks this year. For his career, the 42 TFL have resulted in 144 lost yards – that’s a fairly high number, and indicates that when he gets in to the backfield, he makes it count for a substantial loss. Senior DL Franklin hasn’t done much lately, but looked great with a combined 3 sacks against Duke and TAMU. If he steps it up for his final trip to Blacksburg, the Tech line could have some issues defending both these guys.

Senior LB Tavares Gooden is the ‘Canes’ leading tackler, with 91 on the year, including 10 at Florida State and 14 against Duke and Oklahoma. Gooden mostly hangs back and makes stops on the mid-range plays; only 3 of his 91 tackles have come in the backfield. Getting him to miss an assignment will be a tough task for the Tech offense. Sophomore Colin McCarthy is Miami’s most versatile LB, with 57 tackles, a pick, and 10 TFL on the year. McCarthy could be Miami’s next top-flight ‘backer if he continues to improve in coverage.

The pass defense has numbers that look fine at first glance, but look closer: despite being just 2^nd in the league in yards surrendered, the ‘Canes are 9^th in the league in pass efficiency defense. So teams aren’t trying to throw all that much against Miami, but when they do, it doesn’t prove too hard. This plays right in to Virginia Tech’s hands. Randy Phillips is the most dangerous ‘Cane in the secondary; not only does Phillips have a team-leading 5 INT, but boasts a combined 150 return yards on the 5 picks. When Phillips snatches the ball, everybody look out, dude’s a home run threat. 3 of the picks have come in the last 3 weeks. As long as Glennon doesn’t let Phillips snap off a big play, VA Tech should be able to throw.

Special Teams: Francesco Zampogna lost his job after early season struggles saw him make just 9 of 14 FGs. Darren Daley took over at Florida State, cashing in on all 5 kicks, but then tanked on two FGs against NC State that could have helped Miami beat the Wolfpack. Who knows what we’ll get this weekend, but odds are, it won’t be good. Miami is actually pretty bad in all areas of special teams. Punter Matt Bosher is 11^th in the league, as is Graig Cooper on punt returns. Advantage: VA Tech.

Prediction: I think its reasonable to think Miami may come out with an inspired effort on the heels of last week’s embarrassing OB finale. On the other hand, I think its reasonable to expect Miami to come out lifeless after last week’s embarrassing OB finale. So really, I don’t know what’s going to happen. I do know that VA Tech isn’t going to lose this game, not in Blacksburg, not on Senior Day, not one chance. Virginia Tech 32, Miami 14.

Ball State 41, Toledo 20

Ball State won a battle of two 5-5 teams seeking bowl eligibility Tuesday, 41-20, in front of the ESPN2 cameras on Senior Night at Scheumann Stadium.

After 80 seconds, the teams were on pace for 600 total points, but the brisk offensive pace cooled and Ball State dominated the second half en route to a decisive 6^th win of the year.

Toledo jumped to a 7-0 lead just 28 seconds in to the game after two Jalen Parmele runs combined for 46 yards and a score. But the Cardinals wasted no time answering, marching 68 yards in just 4 plays to score on a 27-yard TD catch by Darius Hill to know the contest at 7.

Ball State turned out an impressive home crowd for the season finale at remodeled Scheumann Stadium. Not only were the ESPN cameras in town, but there may have been some bowl scouts watching as well. Buzz around the stadium focused on the International Bowl in Toronto, and the Cardinals’ offense would likely appeal to the folks in Toronto, who have the right to select third in the MAC bowl pecking order.

Despite the speculation, Cardinal QB Nate Davis and coach Brady Hoke focused their post-game comments on the importance of sending Ball State’s seniors off with a win. But it was a crew of underclassmen that carried the Cardinals to victory.

Davis, a sophomore, had one of his best games of the year, throwing for three scores and running for two, including a spectacular 1 yard run in the second quarter that tied the game at 20. Davis dropped to pass, was flushed from the pocket, and sprinted toward the right pylon. From about a yard and a half out, Davis leapt for the end zone and snuck the ball across the endline. Ian McGarvey’s extra point tied it.

The QB’s main partner in crime on this night was another underclassman, junior Dante Love. Davis found Love on two gorgeous deep throws, including a 39-yard toss in the first half that Love snatched just behind him while streaking in to the end zone. That score brought Ball State to within 17-13 late in the first quarter. With 7 catches and 34 receiving yards in the season finale, Love will have 80 catches and 1000 yards on the year.

Sophomore RB Chris Clancy gave Ball State plenty of tough yards on the ground while the Cardinals protected their lead. The third string RB finished with 13 carries for 103 yards.

Neither team let off the accelerator much in the first half, but Ball State was the squad able to keep pushing the hardest after the break, thanks in part to Toledo injuries. Jalen Parmele, Toledo’s star RB, rung up 94 yards on 16 carries in the first half, but only carried 8 times in the second half after getting dinged up with an unspecified injury.

Rocket QB Aaron Opelt threw some great deep passes in the first half, but injured a shoulder in the third quarter. DJ Lenehan was 0-4 with an INT in his stead.

Toledo wraps the season at Bowling Green in the battle for the Peace Pipe on the day after Thanksgiving. Ball State goes to Northern Illinois next Saturday.

MAC Power Rankings: Week 12

1. Central Michigan – The Chips are in the title game courtesy of the big win at Western Michigan last Tuesday. In my heart of hearts, I still think Ball State is better, but there’s no way to take CMU out of the top spot after they drubbed the Cardinals by 20 at Schuemann. What are the odds of a letdown now that the title is locked up with two games to go? You know EMU will be coming for the Chippewas.
2. Ball State – The Cardinals rolled Toledo last night and looked like a great candidate for the International Bowl in doing so. If Ball State wins at Northern, and it should, the Cardinals will be 7-5 with an explosive passing attack. I have a feeling the folks in Toronto would love to match up Ball State with a Big East team like Louisville. The schools are very close geographically, and the over/under would be about 150.
3. Miami – The Redhawks will be put to the test over the next couple weeks. Miami’s been great under the radar all year, but now with the East title firmly in sight, how will this squad respond to the sight of the finish line? Shane Montgomery is one of only two plausible choices for Coach of the Year; for him to win it, Miami needs to win out and then win the title in Detroit.
4. Buffalo – Don’t count out the Bulls from the East race just yet. Turner Gill’s staff has had two weeks to prepare for BGSU’s visit to UB Stadium, where Buffalo is 3-1 this year. After that, Buffalo road trips to Kent State to face a DOA Golden Flashes squad. Gill is obviously the run away choice for MAC Coach of the Year, and if Buffalo sneaks in to the MAC title game, he’ll be getting votes for the national award as well.
5. Bowling Green – I finally saw the Falcons in person last Friday in Ypsilanti, and the offense looked pretty sharp. Who’s the best passing team in the MAC? Not CMU or Ball State – the answer is BGSU, at 292.70 yards a game. The rush D is the major handicap, and I think it’ll haunt the Falcons in Buffalo this weekend. James Starks and Mario Henry should get plenty of cracks at the nation’s 114^th best rush D.
6. Toledo – All the teams in the MAC’s third tier are closely bunched; I’ll take the Rockets here, begrudgingly. The Rockets have played an astounding 7 homes games to date, inflating their record a bit. 1-point wins over Iowa State and Liberty probably go the other way on the road, but hey, they’ve gotten the job done. In 4 road games, the Rockets haven’t yet held a team under 41 points. That be bad.
7. Akron – JD Brookhart probably quelled any silly talk about his job being in jeopardy with the high scoring win over Ohio on ESPN2 last Wednesday. The task gets tougher the next couple weeks with the two division leaders, Miami and CMU. Can Akron play spoiler? Alex Allen looked like a potential first team all-MAC talent at the Rubber Bowl Wednesday.
8. Ohio – The Bobcats shot their bowl hopes in the foot with the major letdown at Akron. Ohio is the one team in the league not afraid to pound the running game over and over, but when you’re playing 3 games in 12 days, that’s tough. Ohio now gets 16 days off before getting a shot at spoiling Miami’s East title in the season finale. McRae and the line will be rested; Solich has 17 days to craft a defensive game plan. The upset is very possible.
9. Eastern Michigan – EMU has too many defensive talents to send its seniors off giving up 38 points to BGSU on Senior Night. The running game looked nasty against BGSU, but whose hasn’t? How bad will the Eagles be looking for a finale win against Central on Saturday? Answer: Really bad.
10. Western Michigan – Who’s a bigger disappointment this year, Western or Kent State? Most folks say Kent, but I’m going with Western. The secondary was highly touted, and the media (not me) picked this team for 1^st in the conference. Eyebrows are really starting to go up around the league with all the criticism coach Bill Cubit has leveled at QB Tim Hiller. Hiller hasn’t been great, but you didn’t hear a word of criticism last year when Cubit’s son was throwing passes.
11. Temple – Al Golden was spitting fire after Penn State’s 31-0 victory over his Temple team Saturday. The game was much, much closer than the score indicated, especially after three quarters. Temple had a TD called back for penalty, dropped a pass in the end zone, missed a chippie field goal, and made several other back breaking mistakes. This team will win an East title in the next three years.
12. Northern Illinois – If this is Joe Novak’s last year in DeKalb, and it may be, at least the Huskies got off the schneid in conference play by beating Kent State 27-29 this Saturday. Now NIU heads to Navy to face a Middie squad that scored 74 points Saturday…but gave up 62. Justin Anderson will be forgotten in postseason voting, but he’s been the best thing in DeKalb all year.
13. Kent State – Shield your eyes, the glare from the car accident that has been Kent’s 2007 campaign is harsh. When your pass defense gets shredded by Dan Nicholson of NIU, you know you’ve got a problem. Eugene Jarvis continues to toil in losing efforts, at 5^th nationally with 143 ypg.