Big Ten Preview: Week Seven

The Illini head west to Iowa City for a battle with the wounded Hawkeyes. Jeff will handle that matchup, but let’s take a look at the rest of the conference action, in order of how much I’m looking forward to watching:

Game of the Week:
Wisconsin at Penn State - One of these programs’ seasons is about to completely tank, and another’s is about to be salvaged. Who’s who? The answer will likely depend on Wisconsin’s ability to throw the ball. QB Tyler Donovan has been efficient, for the most part (103-171, 1400 yds), but lately has run in to a bit of an interception bug. With 5 in the last three games, Donovan has hurt the Badger offense with turnovers, and the Penn State D is the type that thrives on getting costly takeaways. Badger RB P.J. Hill (125 ypg, 9th nationally) will probably get some yards, but will struggle to get as many as Michigan’s Mike Hart did against the Lions D. The Penn State defensive front could terrorize a Badger line that is still trying to recover from losing Joe Thomas to the NFL. The Penn State D is 4th nationally in sacks, 6th in TFL and 8th in rushing D, meaning the Badgers need their best blocking game of the year. PSU linebackers Sean Lee and Dan Connor fit the mold of big hitting backers, and at 2nd and 3rd in the conference in stops, will be counted on to keep Hill under wraps. Wisconsin’s a little better than Penn State, but Happy Valley isn’t the toughest road trip in the conference for nothing. Penn State 20, Wisconsin 17.

Best of the Rest:
Purdue at Michigan - The Boilers weren’t up to the challenge the Buckeyes presented last week, so we’ll see if they can get back on the horse in the Big House. The Wolverines obviously aren’t quite as good as Ohio State, but the defense is still scary, and Purdue’s defense has looked fairly helpless against the pass, meaning Chad Henne has a chance to really get back on track Saturday. This is a fork in the road for Purdue, which started 5-0, but will be headed toward another high-hopes, weak-finish season if they can’t get it done in Ann Arbor. I’m thinking the key to this game might be how well the Purdue offensive line can create some space for Kory Sheets and the running game. If Curtis Painter has a bit of time, he’ll make good on it. The Wolverines have been the most mercurial bunch in football this fall, but I think they’ll come up just a bit short this weekend, sealing Lloyd Carr’s employment fate. Purdue 24, Michigan 20.

Indiana at Michigan State - The Spartans defensive front, led by Jonal Saint-Dic, is getting a ton of credit for sparking the mini-renaissance in Mark Dantonio’s first season in East Lansing. But its actually the Hoosier defense that leads the nation in sacks, at an astounding 4.83 per game. Sophomore DL Greg Middleton has been a beast, with 9 sacks, and Jammie Kirlew and Ryan Marando are in the Big Ten’s top 10 in sacks as well. This front is probably even more balanced than the Michigan State front, and has to keep creating backfield problems for Indiana to win. In 2007, the Big Ten probably has more viable coach of the year candidates than any campaign in recent memory (Ron Zook is an easy 1st, but in any other year Jim Tressel, Dantonio and Indiana’s Bill Lynch would all be viable candidates). Two of those contenders match up here, and count on Dantonio to neutralize Indiana’s pass rush with quick passes and between the tackles running by Jehuu Caulcrick. This one’s really tough to call, but I think MSU responds with a clutch win. Michigan State 28, Indiana 26

Ho Hum:
Kent State at Ohio State - After a bruising, impressive win in West Lafayette, Ohio State draws the Golden Flashes, the MAC’s most talented squad, in a home date at the Horseshoe. Kent State has loads of talent for its size, but hasn’t been able to stop beating itself, committing one backbreaking penalty after another a 20-13 loss to Miami (Ohio) that I attended. Ohio State, meanwhile, is playing as well as any team in the country outside Baton Rouge, and should be resting their starters by the fourth quarter. QB Julian Edelman is a talent unlike any OSU has faced this year, and I think the element of surprise might be good for ten points by the Flashes. The Bucks have forced more punts this year than the amount of points they’re surrended. That’s astounding. Ohio State 38, Kent State 10.

Boooooorrrrrring:
Minnesota at Northwestern - The Gophers get their best crack at avoiding an 0-fer the Big Ten, travelling to Evanston for a date with a Northwestern team that’s due for a letdown after a monstrous outing in East Lansing. Despite all the fireworks, the ‘Cats still rank 10th in the conference in both rushing yards and scoring, meaning that if CJ Bacher is off kilter at all, they could go down. The lines have been bad too, at 10th or worse in sacks, TFL and rush D. Minnesota showed some signs of life last week against Indiana, but the defense is just god awful, giving up 515 yards a game and ranking 118th nationally in turnover margin, 119th nationally in pass D and 112th in sacks. Those are horrendous, terrifying numbers, and even though Northwestern could lay an egg, I can’t pick a team that woeful on defense. Northwestern 35, Minnesota 22.