C-USA Preview: Week 8

The Golden Hurricane take center stage this week, in a big time separation game against UCF in Orlando. Let’s take a look at all the action, in order of how much I’m looking forward to watching the games.

Game of the Week:

Tulsa at UCF – This one’s a no-doubter. One of these teams is going to be, most likely, out of their divisional race, and the other is going to get a win over one of C-USA’s better teams. Tulsa gets a reeling Knight squad, two weeks removed from looking like the class of the league, back on its home turf and desperately needing a win. This is the Knights’ only home date in October, and the fans will be ready to make things as tough on Paul Smith and the Tulsa offense as possible. I just don’t like the way this matchup shakes down for Tulsa. You’ve got a wounded squad back on its home turf, where it has looked dominant this year, and a running back who was knocked off his nation leading perch last week, and should be out for blood against the nation’s 112^th best D. UCF 38, Tulsa 34.

Best of the Rest:

Houston at UAB – The Cougars take their offensive show to Birmingham, where they’re awaited by a UAB squad that is better than they’re getting credit for. Houston’s effort at Alabama was applauded, but the Blazers did a number on Mississippi State for over three quarters en route to a 30-13 loss that was way, way closer than it looked. The Houston offense is redefining juggernaut; 2^nd in the C-USA in running, passing, passing efficiency and total offense, they’re helping a D that ranks 2^nd in pass D and total D and 3^rd in TFL. Considering Houston’s strength of schedule so far, these numbers are really, really good. Who knows what’s going on at QB, but it shouldn’t matter too much, as both Case Keenum and Blake Joseph are capable big things. But this UAB team is one of the only squads in the conference capable of putting up a defense, and I think in a year where we’re learning to expect the unexpected, they’ll rise to the occasion and get a big, big upset. UAB 30, Houston 27.

Ho Hum:

NC State at East Carolina – This one should be interesting to you if you like seeing BCS schools take it in the teeth from mid-majors. The Pirates are a better unit than NC State on both sides of the ball, and they get big brother in Greenville, where the Pirate faithful will be waiting. The Bad Timing Award of the century might go to NC State’s Tom O’Brien. O’Brien left Boston College, now the nation’s third ranked team and likely ACC champions, for NC State, a squad that, shocking thought it may sound, may be the ACC’s worst team behind Duke and North Carolina this year. The ‘Pack have yet to beat a FBS squad under O’Brien’s leadership, and it won’t happen this week. ECU makes a mini-statement with a bigger than expected win. ECU 35, NC State 14.

Memphis at Rice – Two weeks ago, this looked like the snoozer to end all snoozers, but I’ve got to be honest: Rice has my attention. In a year where “smart schools” are all doing nice things on the field (Northwestern is 4-3, Stanford beat USC, Duke is better than its been in years), Rice has come out of nowhere to put up 79 points in the last two games, and is a couple plays from being 2-0 in that stretch. Now come winnable games against Memphis and Marshall; if the Owls keep getting turnovers, they could be 3-1 in the C-USA at the close of October. Make no mistake, either, turnovers are the key; Rice is +8 in the turnover column the last two weeks, and continued pressure on the Tigers’ struggling QB, Will Hudgens, is essential. I think they’ll put it on, and get another surprising win. Rice 35, Memphis 26.

Booooooring

Tulane at SMU – So far this year, the Wave is about as predictable as a sitcom rerun. Tulane is going to feed Matt Forte the ball, Forte will get a ton of yards, but the defense won’t be able to get a key stop and the offense will run of gas in the fourth quarter. Run D is one of the Ponies’ strong points, as the team numbers are much better there (6^th in C-USA) than against the pass (11^th in C-USA). SMU’s inability to pressure the QB shouldn’t be a big deal, as stopping Forte is the key to shutting down the Greenie offense. SMU is a lot better at home than on the road, and I think they’ll do just enough behind dual-threat QB Justin Willis to make Phil Bennett’s seat just a bit cooler, if only for a day. SMU 30, Tulane 20.

Southern Miss at Marshall – It’s so tempting to pick the Herd to get their first win in this most unpredictable of seasons, but I just can’t do it. As the ECU Pirates continue to play well, Southern Miss’ early season win in Greenville looks better and better, and if QB Stephen Reaves is healthy, the Golden Eagles shouldn’t have much trouble at Marshall. The Herd is still 100^th or worse in 9 of the 17 major NCAA statistical categories, and their only hope seems to be another Rice-like outing from So. Miss, when the Golden Eagles committed 7 turnovers. It won’t happen, and the Golden Eagles keep their noses in the race. Southern Miss 37, Marshall 21.