Virginia Tech at Clemson Preview

And here we are. While most Tech fans had high hopes for the trip to LSU, this week’s contest against Clemson has been the one circled as a contest that will play a large part in making or breaking the Hokies’ season. And, with Clemson’s 13-3 defeat at Georgia Tech last week, the Tigers now enter the game coming off a loss, and needing a win to keep their Atlantic Division hopes alive. Let’s check out the matchup:

Clemson (4-1, 2-1 ACC)

Offense: Before the wheels came off in Atlanta, this unit had been humming along pretty well. Junior QB Cullen Harper is still off to a really nice start, with season numbers of 92-147 for 1158 yards. The impressive stat, and the one most important to Clemson’s success, considering their stable of solid possession backs, is that Harper has thrown 12 TDs to just 1 INT. Harper’s not much of a threat to make an impact with his legs, and his lack of mobility has been a big factor in the 14 sacks he’s taken. Harper went down 6 times against the Ramblin’ Wreck, and was harried constantly. It seems to me like this awful QB protection rate (3.2 sacks per game, 104^th nationally) is a dual responsibility of the line and Harper. Either way, its got to change, because the Hokie front seven will be coming from all directions and trying to replicate the performance the other Tech put on last week. James Davis and CJ Spiller are the dual feature backs, with Davis being the much more consistent of the two. They both have big play capability, but Davis hasn’t averaged less than 5.0 yards a pop in any of the first 5 games of this year. Spiller is dangerous, too, but hasn’t had a great year statistically, and completely disappeared against both Furman and Georgia Tech. As James Davis goes, so goes the Clemson running game. As far as the passing game, if Harper has time to throw, he’ll look first to Aaron Kelly, a junior WR. Kelly has been a key player in the Clemson aerial attack for three years, and if he keeps up at this rate, he might have a shot at a lot of the Tigers’ all time receiving marks. He’s on pace for a 70 catch, 800 yard season in 2007. Sophomore Jacoby Ford and junior Tyler Grisham, both WRs, will catch some balls as well. The key with Harper and the Clemson passing game is not giving him time to set up and throw from the pocket. When Harper has it, he’s very efficient. When he doesn’t, the Clemson can and will be stopped.

Defense: Overall, the Clemson defense has been pretty darn stout this year, and can’t take much of the responsibility for the Georgia Tech defeat. The Tigers limited Tech to just 256 yards, and the other two ACC foes, NC State and Florida State, got just 202 and 256, respectively. Clemson is especially good defending against the pass; even with three blow out wins under their belt, which should means teams are throwing a lot against them, they’re 8^th nationally in pass yardage D and 7^th in pass efficiency D. Junior DB Michael Hamlin is a ball-hawking player with 7 career interceptions, including one in each of the last three games. The Tigers aren’t spectacular defending the run, at 66^th nationally, so its even more incumbent than usual for Brandon Ore and Tyrod Taylor to make things happen on the ground. The D is sitting at 4^th in the league in TFL right now, and Phillip Merling is a standout in this area, with 9 of his 27 overall tackles coming behind the line of scrimmage. Young gun Ricky Sapp, a sophomore DL, will also get in the backfield; Sapp has 2.5 sacks this year after nabbing four during his freshman campaign. All in all, the strength of this unit is in defending the pass, but there should be some holes between the tackles.

Special Teams: The weakness of the squad is certainly special teams at this point in the year. The Clemson punt cover unit is 102th nationally in net punting, with a measly 31.67 yards coming of it every time the Tigers willingly change possession. Their kick return unit hasn’t been good either, logging just 18 yards a kick. In these days of kickoffs from the 30 yard line, that’s a terrible total, and it’s only good for 113^th nationally. Kicker Mark Buchholz was off to a solid start, but shanked four of five kicks against Georgia Tech, potentially costing Clemson the game. Buchholz appears to have held on his starting job, but its tough to say how he’ll bounce back mentally from such an awful effort.

Prediction: Clemson is a solid outfit on both sides of the ball. If the Tigers had beaten Georgia Tech, I’d be picking the Hokies today, but Clemson needs this game desperately, and Coach Tommy Bowden might need it that badly as well. VA Tech can still lose and win their division; Clemson really can’t, and I think the added sense of urgency will be enough to win a squeaker. Clemson 17, VA Tech 16.