Big Ten Preview: Week Six

Once again leaving the Illinois game to Jeff, let’s take a quick peek around the Big Ten and see what’s in store on the first weekend in October.

Game of the Week

Ohio State at Purdue – The Boilers have had this one circled on the calendar since the beginning of the year. To their credit, they survived all the landmines until now, and enter the OSU game 5-0. Purdue’s offense has been lighting up bad defenses to the tun of 495 yards and 45.4 points per game (10^th and 8^th in NCAA). QB Curtis Painter has slowed a bit the last two weeks, but the passing game is still absolutely blowing people up, with Painter sitting at 308 yards a game and 18 TD to 3 INT. WR Dorien Bryant is a dynamic threat as well, averaging a cool 8 catches, 90 yards a game. Bryant is also tops in the Big Ten in kick returns, at over 32 yards a return. On the OSU side of the ball, the Bucks have been getting Henry Ford-like efficiency from QB Todd Boeckman and the offensive line, pancaking Ds and giving Boeckman plenty of time to see the field and develop in to a high quality QB. The D has been fantastic, with stud playmakers James Laurinaitis and Vernon Gholston leading a unit that’s giving up only 7 points a game. The spread attack of Purdue will give Ohio State some early problems, but the Bucks will batten down the hatches are solidify their grip on the Big Ten title chase. Ohio State 30, Purdue 23.

Best of the Rest

Iowa at Penn State – Two historically solid programs both desperately needing a win to keep their seasons from heading completely south. Penn State has lost tough road battles at Michigan and Illinois the last two weeks, and Iowa lost a nailbiter at Wisconsin before being pounded by Indiana in Kinnick. In Happy Valley, the story is once again defense, with the Lions sitting in the top 15 nationally in rush D, total yards D, scoring D, sacks and TFL. Linebacker U has another two great ones this year in Sean Lee and Dan Connor, two LBs that can lay big time hits and cover the field. The Hawkeye defense has been pretty good, too, but the offense has been wretched. With four top receivers out to injury, QB Jake Christensen’s learning curve has been stunted, and Iowa just isn’t moving the ball well enough to beat a defense like this on the road. Penn State 24, Iowa 13.

Ho Hum

Northwestern at Michigan State – A week after playing Wisconsin to the endgame in Madison, the Spartans return home to get a Northwestern squad that had Michigan on the ropes, but couldn’t stop turning the ball over. On paper, this one should be over in a hurry, with MSU’s double tailback tandem of Ringer and Caulcrick able to carve a defense that’s 9^th in the Big Ten against the run, and 10^th in keeping teams off the scoreboard. However, Northwestern’s semi-spread attack could neutralize Michigan State’s biggest edge on defense, getting to the quarterback and wreaking havoc in the backfield. Led by absolute beast Jonal Saint-Dic, the Spartans are 2^nd nationally in sacks and 5^th in TFL, but if the Wildcats spread ‘em out wide and throw a lot of 3-step drop quick passes, they may be able to limit MSU’s sacking ability. I think this one’s closer than it might be, but the Spartans still pull out the victory. Michigan State 28, Northwestern 23.

Minnesota at Indiana – I’ve grown a little tired of giving the Gophers the same “they stink, but expect some fireworks!” preview, so it was kind of nice to see a completely boring 30-7 loss last week to Ohio State. Indiana is playing well right now, and needs this one to keep the ball rolling and stay within range of 8 wins. No offense to the Hoosiers, but this is a scary game for a program like Indiana, because its one of the first they’ve had in awhile where they are big favorites and absolutely, positively must win. How will they respond? They’re going to start by trying to make QB Adam Weber miserable. Michigan State is getting all the pub, but Indiana actually leads the nation in sacks, at 5.4 a game, and with the way Minny’s offense is going, they should be able to wreak sufficient havoc behind the line of scrimmage. Still, I think the Gophers put a little scare in to ‘em. Indiana 32, Minnesota 24.

Boooorrrrrrrring

Eastern Michigan at Michigan – After a roller coaster few weeks that saw them paste Notre Dame, gut out a win over Penn State, then almost pee down their leg against Northwestern, the Wolverines come back to Ann Arbor for a little serenity before battling Purdue and Illinois the next two Saturdays. I know, you’re thinking “don’t forget Appalachian State!” and believe me, Michigan won’t. Besides, this EMU squad is a woeful bunch on offense, ranking in the 100s nationally in every major category on the heels of a 180 yard outing at Vanderbilt. This unit can’t and won’t move the ball on Michigan. The Eagle D on the other hand is a unit with some playmakers you’re not hearing enough about, because they play on such a bad team. LB Daniel Holtzclaw is 3^rd in the nation in tackles, and can make plays all over the field. DE Jason Jones spent some time last year leading the nation in TFL, and he’s close again this year, tied for 13^th in the NCAA. So EMU should be able to limit the onslaught, but with the offense going nowhere, this one still won’t be close. Michigan 31, EMU 3.