C-USA Preview: Week 9

Another all-star week for me last Saturday predicting the C-USA…not. UAB beating Houston? Rice beating Memphis? East Carolina drilling NC State? Ouch. What was I thinking. Let’s see if I can recover this week, in what looks like perhaps the blandest slate of games the C-USA has seen this fall. Still, there are crucial contests for the contenders, landmines for the leaders, and shots at redemptions for the left-behinds. Let’s get to it:

Last Week: 2-4 overall, 2-4 ATS

Overall: 14-10 overall, 9-14 ATS

Game of the Week:

Houston at UTEP – A battle of C-USA leaders on the edges of the desert. It should be a classic Conference USA clash in El Paso, and first one to 50 wins. The Cougars boast one of the nation’s most balanced offenses behind Blake Joseph, Case Keenum, Anthony Aldridge and Donnie Avery. Not sure who’ll play the most at QB for Houston; does it matter? Both Joseph and Keenum are in the C-USA’s top five in efficiency. On the UTEP side, they’ve been waiting two weeks for this one, and a win really gives them a strangehold on the West division. They boast some balance of their own,with C-USA’s 4^th ranked passing and 4^th ranked rushing attacks. But the UTEP D isn’t as good as Houston’s; at 114^th in the nation in yards allowed, there’s no doubt the defense 11 are a liability for the Miners. UTEP’s last three games have been decided by 7 total points, and you just know this one’s going to go down that road. I like the Miners with a late Marcus Thomas TD run to pull the upset and secure the West. UTEP 44, Houston 41

Best of the Rest:

UCF at Southern Miss – UCF has been two different teams at home and on the road this year; all the big time performances have come at the Knights’ new stadium, and two eggs have been laid in road dates with ECU and USF. UCF puts on their travelin’ shoes again this weekend, heading to Hattiesburg to battle the 4-3 Golden Eagles. Winner’s still in the East race, loser goes home. If Southern Miss, they should be able to hang with the Knights, but can they hang on to the ball? In three losses, the Eagles have 9 fumbles and 5 INT. When they hang on to the pig, they win. When they don’t, they don’t. The rushing defense will have its hands full with Kevin Smith, but the UCF squad is awful in turnover margin, at -1.14 per game, good for 109^th nationally. UCF moves the ball, but doesn’t create turnovers, as their Jekyll & Hyde year continues. Southern Miss 29, UCF 24.

Ho Hum:

SMU at Tulsa – At least we hope so, right? On paper, this is an easy win for the Golden Hurricane, as the Ponies’ 111^th ranked pass D and 99^th ranked pass D should be eaten alive by Paul Smith, Tarrion Adams, and Tulsa’s 3^rd ranked offense in all the land. Butin a year where not much has come easy for Tulsa, don’t be too quick to write off SMU; sophomore QB Justin Willis is an emerging player who had his best game ever with 354 passing yards and 3 TD against Tulane last week. The spread on this one is 14, but Tulsa hasn’t beaten an FBS opponent by more than 8 this year since LA-Monroe in the opener. That’ll change this Saturday, but not by much. Southern Methodist keeps Tulsa on its toes, but two third quarter Paul Smith TD tosses put it away. Tulsa 38, SMU 28.

Memphis at Tulane – I’m all over the Matt Forte bandwagon lately, and even this matchup is a general stinker, I’m excited to see how he and the Tulane offense respond to a bit of national attention now that Forte leads the land on the ground. The element that may even be more important to Green Wave chances is the rush defense; lost in all the hubbub over Forte is a unit ranking 1^st in the C-USA against the run. Junior linebacker Evan Lee has at least 7 tackles in all 7 games this year, and leads the D with 64 total, including 6 for loss. It looks like Martin Hankins under center for the Tigers, and that could be a good thing; Hankins lit up Rice but he’ll be hard pressed to log similar numbers against the Tulane D which does well against the run and well enough against the pass to stay in games. Forte tops 200, and the Green Wave wins again. Tulane 28, Memphis 19.

Rice at Marshall – OK, riddle me this: we’ve got Marshall in this corner, sitting on 0-7, with the 113^th ranked rush D, 116^th ranked pass D, 112^th ranked scoring D. Wait, there’s more: Marshall is 118^th in TFL, 112^th in protecting the QB, and 106^th in sacks. Ok, got that? In the other corner, you’ve got Rice, who despite their near equal suckitude actually has a win over Southern Miss, but is 101^st or worse nationally in rushing, total offense, pass D, total D, scoring D, kick returns and sacks allowed. So…this one isn’t exactly New England vs. Indianapolis, but doesn’t it sound kind of fun? And here’s the really weird thing: Marshall is a 9 point favorite. How bad do you have to be to be a 9-point dog against a team that is 0 for the year?? Wow. I can’t believe I’m about to pick either of these teams to win, but I guess I have to. Marshall 31, Rice 30.5

Boooooooooooooooring:

UAB at East Carolina – The Pirates should make really quick work of the limping Blazers, but as I get paid to say every week, stranger things have happened. Maybe ECU has a hangover from the humbling 14-point loss in its own crib to in-state bully NC State. That was a game the C-USA really could have used for national recognition. When your best team gets a BCS conference’s worst team at home, you’d better be rooting for your league’s squad to get it done. ECU gagged in a big way, and maybe the rest of the C-USA busts out the voodoo dolls this week; that’s about the only way the Pirates don’t win. ECU is taking care of the ball extremely well, and forcing a lot of turnovers too. That, combined with the Pirates’ superior ability to cause negative plays for the UAB offense, should be enough to keep Sam Hunt out of the endzone more than a couple times. ECU 38, UAB 24.