C-USA Preview: Week Seven

A near full slate of C-USA games this weekend will give us five conference winners, five conference losers, and a slightly clearer picture of where we’ll be at season’s end. It’s not the sexiest slate this weekend, but there are some key battles. Let’s check them out, in the order I’m looking forward to watching them:

Game of the Week:

East Carolina at UTEP - The Miners have dazzled in the fourth quarter, breaking hearts at both SMU and Tulsa two weeks running, using a late-charging passing attack to put up 48 points in two straight down-to-the-wire wins. QB Trevor Vittatoe is the catalyst of the late comebacks, but senior back Marcus Thomas deserves more credit for his contributions. This is Thomas’ third year getting bunches of carries, and he’s having his best year in El Paso, with 116 carries for 605 yards and 11 scores in just five games. The offensive line has been good at protecting Vittatoe (4th in C-USA sacks allowed), but the defensive line has been brutal. There’s been almost no pressure to speak of (4 sacks in 6 games, 118th nationally), and that has to change against an ECU offense that just posted a where-the-heck-did-that-come-from 52 points against UCF last week. The Pirates were the beneficiaries of great field position, thanks to 5 UCF turnovers in the third quarter alone. UTEP has been great at both protecting and snatching the football, so they’ll likely force ECU to drive the entire field. Robert Kass & Co. will do it a few times, but not enough. UTEP 40, East Carolina 30.

Best of the Rest:

UCF at South Florida - After last week’s disappointing loss to ECU, the Knights can get right back on the horse by stunning the nation’s flavor of the week, South Florida. Kevin Smith still leads the nation in rushing, at 172 ypg, but he and UCF face their stiffest opposition to date, going against a USF defense surrendering just 115 yards a game. The Bulls’ great defense strength is their Dan McCarney-coached defensive line and soon to be All-American George Selvie. Selvie, a sophomore DL, is blistering opposing offenses to the tune of 3.5 TFL and 2.2 sacks per game, both best in the nation. However, those numbers have dipped significantly as the season has gone on, and we’ll see if UCF can keep him out of the backfield like Florida Atlantic did. Excluding Selvie, USF has 4 of the Big East’s top 15 tacklers, and a decent offense led by junior back Benjamin Williams. UCF is a great sleeper pick here - an in-state rival coming off a loss against a South Florida squad that’s probably a hair overrated. I can’t quite pick UCF, but I think they keep it very, very close. South Florida 24, UCF 21.

Ho Hum:

Marshall at Tulsa - I’m curious to see how the Golden Hurricane responds to the heartbreaker in El Paso last weekend. Tulsa got its heart ripped out by UTEP Saturday, but should be able to take out its frustrations on a Marshall squad that could easily end up one of the worst in the FBS this year. The Herd is 0-5, with keystone losses to FCS New Hampshire and Memphis. Marshall’s lone bright spot has been QB Bernard Morris, which might strike just a bit of fear into the hearts of Tulsa fans. Considering his supporting cast is so much weaker, his numbers probably render him a better thrower than Trevor Vittatoe. Other than Morris, everything has been bad, bad, bad. Marshall ranks 11th or worse in the C-USA in rush yards, sacks, TFL, sacks allowed, scoring, rush D and pass D. Those are woeful across the board numbers, and although Morris may convert a few annoying first downs, Tulsa should win this one going away. Tulsa 41, Marshall 14.

Southern Methodist at SMU - The battle to see which SMU is better features two squads that will need terrible short term memories to put their best game on the field. Both teams lost games they desperately needed their last time on the field, with Southern Miss falling 31-29 to lowly Rice and SMU dropping a late lead to the UTEP comeback machine, 48-45. These will be two desperate squads, so expect a wild one yet again. Who knows who will be throwing passes for the Golden Eagles, but whoever it is has to do better than Stephen Reaves last week. Reaves played through injury, but tossed 4 picks and fumbled 3 times, giving the downright awful Owls a chance to win the game, and they did. The nine days prep could be just the elixir Southern Miss needs, but SMU has had two weeks to think about the UTEP loss, and should be ready with their best effort. Southern Miss keeps sliding; SMU gets a big win. SMU 28, Southern Miss 23.

Boooooooooring:

Rice at Houston - The battle for Houston got a little more interesting when Rice knocked off Southern Miss last week, and the Cougars played Alabama to the final gun in Tuscaloosa. Unfortunately, this one still shapes up as a clunker, with Houston easily the better squad. Houston is really just two plays away from being 4-1 with only a loss to Oregon, but they didn’t get the breaks late against ECU and ‘Bama, and sit at 2-3 overall. The Cougar attack features great balance, as the Houston line can both run and pass block, with each facet of the offense ranking 3rd in C-USA. Houston’s pass D is a little suspect, but Rice junior QB Chase Clement, despite having a ton of snaps under his belt, still hasn’t gotten the hang of the “no interception” thing, with 7 on the year against just five scores. Rice played their best game of the year and beat a Southern Miss squad that committed 5 turnovers. Houston wins by alot. Houston 45, Rice 13.

Tulane at UAB - The Green Wave is one of what seems like a dozen C-USA teams coming off a heartbreaking loss, losing to Army last Saturday when the Cadets scored on the final play of regulation, sending the game to overtime. UAB has been pretty bad against the run this year, at 111th nationally, and that plays right in to the hands of Tulane’s offensive scheme, where the order of operations is 1. Matt Forte, 2. Matt Forte, 3. adjust snap count, 4. Matt Forte. The Blazers were great for three quarters against Mississippi State, but eventually wore down. I think the tables are turned this time, as Tulane will get a couple early scores, but ultimately won’t show enough versatility on offense to finish the Blazers. UAB 30, Tulane 21.