Week One Big Ten Preview

(This article originally appeared on illinois.rivals.com.)

A quick rundown of this weekend’s non-Illini contests in the Big Ten:

Best Game of the Week –

Purdue at Toledo: The MAC has a chance to turn some heads as one of its flagship programs gets a crack at perennial bowl squad Purdue. The Glass Bowl will be rocking for what shapes up as one of my favorite matchups of week one. Purdue will go in with its standard game plan: pass, pass and when in doubt, pass some more. Unfortunately, the Toledo secondary isn’t very good; the corners didn’t get a single pick last year, and bad corners don’t defend great receivers very well. In theory, this is a classic upset pick, but this Toledo squad isn’t quite good enough, and doesn’t have the established leader yet that they hope either Aaron Opelt or Clint Cochran will emerge as down the road. The Rockets will spook Purdue for a couple quarters, but won’t pull it off. Purdue 39, Toledo 24.

Can’t Wait to See It –

Iowa vs. Northern Illinois: Despite all the press attention received by Iowa’s QB Drew Tate, most careful observers know that Albert Young has made the Hawkeye offense go since he arrived in the starting lineup. With Tate now gone, the squad is unequivocally led by Young, and his effectiveness will determine the Hawkeye fortunes all year long. Joe Novak has big question marks on this Husky team, the most predominant of which is the young offensive line. Iowa’s strength is on the defensive front seven, and as excited as I am for this game, Northern Illinois should struggle mightily to score. Larry English will put a few choice hits on new Iowa QB Jake Christensen, but it won’t be enough. Iowa 30, Northern Illinois 9.

Ohio State vs. Youngstown State: Yeah, this one could be a snoozer, but there’s something special to me about Jim Tressel giving a shot to the program he led to I-AA powerhouse status. New Buckeye QB Todd Boeckman is bound to make some mistakes, and it’ll be interesting to see how long (or short) Tressel’s fuse is with the young one. There are talented backups lurking on the depth chart, and Boeckman will need to be efficient to hang on to the job all year. Luckily, he won’t have to be great. The Penguins are young, and that’s not the recipe that spells upset in Columbus. Tom Zetts will draw some notice for his arm, but that’s about it. Ohio State 30, Youngstown State 7.

Middle of the Road –

Michigan vs. Appalachian State: The Wolverines take on the two-time defending I-AA national champion Mountaineers in what should be a much more interesting game than most people realize. Obviously, Michigan should dispose of Appalachian State quickly, but the experienced, disciplined Mountaineers will execute well and force Michigan to do the same. The guests may have their best chance to succeed against Michigan’s relatively inexperienced secondary. Armanti Edwards is a dynamic dual-threat under center, with 2251 yards throwing and 1153 yards rushing last year. However, his throwing ability will be predicated on how much time he has; and against Michigan’s sure to be dominant defensive line, it won’t be much. Michigan 33, Appalachian State 14.

Wisconsin vs. Washington State: For some reason, this is a game that, despite matching two BCS programs on the first day of the year, just doesn’t grab me. Washington State isn’t going to be any kind of player in the Pac-10, and look for the Cougar offense to roll in to Madison essentially dead on arrival. On the Badger side of the ball, PJ Hill is going to post another mammoth statistical season. Career backup Tyler Donovan seems to have won the starting QB job over Kansas State transfer Allen Everidge and, despite his inexperience, he should be fine. Has science found a way to explain the NFL success of Wisconsin’s unheralded quarterbacks of late? Donovan may not follow Stocco, Sorgi and others to the pros, but he’ll start his starting career on the right foot. Wisconsin 35, Washington State 13.

Minnesota vs. Bowling Green: I can’t tell you how many pesos I’d part with to be a fly on the wall during Tim Brewster’s first pre-game speech at Minnesota. Although Bowling Green did battle Wisconsin to the death in last year’s opener, this is a different BG squad, one breaking in several new players and coaches at crucial posts. The Gophers always seem to exert a pretty nice size advantage against lower conference teams, and should produce yards and points without having to throw much. With Temple and Buffalo improving, the Falcons are headed for the basement in the MAC East, and I’ll be surprised if this one is close by the third quarter. Minnesota 38, Bowling Green 10.

Michigan State vs. UAB: John L is out, and The D’Antonio is in up the road in East Lansing, and this game will be the first indication of whether some credibility will be restored to the Spartan program following Smith’s exit. With a new staff, new quarterback and new offensive scheme, UAB isn’t going to have any idea what’s going on when they have the ball. Michigan State isn’t going to be good this year, but Javon Ringer will post a surprisingly productive game and excite the Spartan faithful…for now. Michigan State 40, UAB 10.

Snoozers –

Northeastern at Northwestern: Throw out the record books when these two directional schools get together…Not. The training wheels are off for Wildcat coach Pat Fitzgerald, and this season should tell us a little more about the kind of coach he’s going to be with time to prepare on his terms. Northwestern is certainly capable of gagging here, with last season’s brutal 34-17 gaffe against New Hampshire as ample evidence of that, but this is a different season and very different circumstances. Despite mostly struggling in recent years, the ‘Cats have had some excellent skill position players, and Tyrell Sutton will continue that tradition with at least 1,000 yards rushing this year. Northeastern has plenty of returning starters, including a solid offensive line, but it won’t be enough. Northwestern 28, Northeastern 12.

Penn State vs. Florida International: FIU can’t score points. Period. Last year, the Golden Panthers were last in the NCAA in scoring and 116^th in yards. Against a Penn State defense that is almost always very salty, that’s a bad sign. Anthony Morelli, the Nittany Lion signal caller, may be headed for a bit of a breakout year. There’s just not much here to write about. One team can’t score. That team can’t win. Penn State 38, FIU 3.

Indiana vs. Indiana State: Ugh. There’s not a lot to like here, with a an in-state “rivalry” between Big Ten doormat Indiana and the lower division Sycamores. ISU posted a 1-10 mark to be one of the worst teams in I-AA, and coupled with the inspiration the Hoosiers should draw in their first win since the death of Terry Hoeppner, this one will get ugly. Kellen Lewis and James Hardy are going to look like a pair of Heisman contenders against the woefully overmatched Sycamore defense. Indiana 44, Indiana State 6.