Here’s my rundown of the Big 12, as it stands right now. Remember, these are my ratings for how good I think the teams are right now, not how well they’ll finish, or what their final record will be. Enjoy…
1. Oklahoma – Duh. The Sooners are leading the nation in scoring offense, 3rd in total offense, and top 15 in both passing and rushing offense. Oh yeah, and they’re 5th in rush D, 2nd in total D, 6th in scoring D and 1st in tackles for loss. This is shaping up like a fearsome, scary unit, and the emergence of QB Sam Bradford has made the offense just as petrifying as the vaunted D. I’m not ready to pencil them in to the national title game just yet, but OU looks downright deadly in late September.
2. Texas – I’m not in love with this choice, but no one else has done quite enough to unseat the Longhorns from their obvious spot. Texas looked awfully shaky at UCF, but the Golden Knights do have some talent and were christening a new stadium. Throw in the fact that UCF had just won at NC State, and the struggle doesn’t seem so bad. But what’s up with Colt McCoy and chucking picks? After a sparkling 29-7 TD-INT ratio last year, he’s already tossed 5 INTs. Both sides of the ball are mired in the 30s and 40s nationally in the major statistical categories, and the defense had better rachet up the big play potential before the Big 12 comes a callin’.
3. Missouri – You could certainly make a great argument for putting the Tigers #2, as they’ve already beaten two quality opponents on the road, but given their propensity for gagging, I need a little more convincing. Chase Daniel has to be a darkhorse Heisman candidate after ripping up Illinois, Mississippi and W. Michigan for no less than 27 completions, 328 yards and 2 TDs in any of the first three games. Jeremy Maclin looks great at WR, and the freshman could be the big playmaker that pushes the Tigers over the edge. Now its time for the defense to step up. Mizzou hasn’t faced a juggernaut offense yet, but is surrendering 27 points a game.
4. Texas Tech – The beat goes on in Lubbock: Its late September, the Red Raiders have toasted three non-conference patsies, and the Tech QB is posting ungodly passing numbers. This shouldn’t shock you anymore, but I’ll lay it out anyway: Graham Harrell’s average game after three outings is: 40-53, 439 yards, 4.8 TDs. Yep, huge. If this squad is ever going to make the leap to Big 12 power, it needs to use an improved D-line to create sacks and turnovers. So far, they’re 12th nationally in taking down QBs. Can they still bring the heat in conference season?
5. Nebraska – What happened to the Blackshirts? Nebraska’s fans love to do the crossbones, but this unit hasn’t shone this year. Granted, the win at Wake Forest was big; any time you go in to a defending champ of a BCS league and win in their house, you’ve done a good thing. But, 236 rushing yards? 9 of 20 third down conversions? Sam Keller has been efficient, for the most part, but only time will tell how much the USC drubbing rained on this squad’s parade.
6. Kansas – Holy crap the Jayhawks have looked amazing. The two headed monster backfield of Jake Sharp and Brandon McAnderson has been good, the offensive line has been very good, and Todd Reesing has been sensational, throwing for 296 yards a game, with 10 TDs and zero INT. I don’t put a lot of stock in the MAC wins; Central Michigan came to Lawrence in its first game under Butch Jones, and the Toledo Rockets are in freefall. We’ll find out more about the defense when KU heads to Manhattan to tangle with Josh Freeman in two weeks. For now, this is an Alamo Bowl type team.
7. Texas A & M – I know the Aggies are ranked 16th in the coaches poll, but remind me how exactly they’ve been so impressive this year? TAMU needed 3 OT to beat Fresno State at home, and has rolled two patsies. The media is gaga over Stephen McGee right now, but he disappeared against Fresno. How do you throw for 79 yards in a 3 OT game and win? The answer is Jovorski Lane, a red zone monster and short yardage specialist who must produce for the Aggies to be successful. Teams that are strong up the middle and can stuff the run are going to do well against A & M.
8. Kansas State – The ‘Cats are still a mystery to me. The battle at Auburn, which they lost 23-13, looked a lot more impressive before Auburn lost the next two weeks to South Florida and Mississippi State. As it stands, KSU’s opponents have a 1-6 record against D-1 opponents, leaving us relatively in the dark on this team’s skill level. K-State has two weeks to prepare for the trip to Austin; could they really catch the ‘Horns off guard twice in a row?
9. Oklahoma State – Easily the disappointment of the year for those of us desperately hoping someone would emerge from the South other than the boring old OU-UT winner. The 41-23 tagging at Troy wasn’t as bad as a lot of people think, but the terrible defense is. 85th in the nation in sacks, 93rd in pass defense and 74th in scoring defense, and those numbers are inexcusable against the schedule OSU has seen so far.
10. Iowa State – We knew ISU wasn’t as bad as it looked against UNI, they just couldn’t be. The Cyclones played like most fans would have expected them to before the season on Saturday against Iowa. Wayne Bolt’s defense answered the bell time and again, and the offense, while unspectacular, controlled the ball, moved the chains and gave Bret Culbertson a chance to be a hero. Still, with offensive talent like they’ve got (Bret Meyer, Todd Blythe) and a line that seems capable of pass protection (only 2 sacks in 3 games), why can’t they score more than 15 points in a game?
11. Colorado – The Buffs are a narrow miss away from being 0-3, and while the competition has been stiff, the offense has been brutal. There are no options on the ground, with Demetrius Sumler leading the way with just 44 yards per game. CU isn’t scoring either, getting just 17 a game while surrendering almost 26. It seems like coach’s son Cody Hawkins has a pretty long leash in Boulder, but he hasn’t thrown down field too much – the Buffs are averaging just 5 yards per pass attempt. If he can air it out, he may gave the backs more room to operate.
12. Baylor – Blake Szymanski is going to get tons of press over the next couple years with the numbers her puts up as the QB in some kind of knock off from the Mike Leach system down the road in Lubbock. Blake has put up 1039 yards already in just three games, but the 5 INT show he’s not quite ready to be an upper level QB. The 34-27 win over Texas State was closer than it looked; Texas State dominated time of possession, held Baylr to 28 rushing yards, led in first downs by 5, and almost outgained the Bears. I’m putting you on alert right now: I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Buffalo knocked off Baylor this week in west New York.
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