Big Ten Week Four Preview

The Big Ten season gets underway in a big way this weekend with five conference tilts and the annual Michigan State-Notre Dame hatefest. Leaving the Illinois game to Jeff, let’s take a look at the other 5 contests taking place on Saturday.

Game of the Week

#10 Penn State (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten) at Michigan (1-2, 0-0 Big Ten) – OK, Wolverines: here’s your chance. While there are some Wolverine fans who will never be happy (and its true, there will be no national title this season, as some had hoped), this is Michigan’s chance to get right back on track for a Big Ten title run. The holes in the Wolverines’ offense and defenses have been exposed, but a big win over PSU will bring back the swagger; and in a down Big Ten, that could carry UM a long way. Michigan has beaten the Lions 8 straight times, and their effort to win #9 will certain around their defense’s ability to stop a Penn State offense that has put up big points against bad defenses. The Lions have scored 135 in three games against FIU, ND and Buffalo. Keeping the Lions off the scoreboard is key; even on Mike Hart’s shoulders, the Wolverine attack isn’t going to score a ton of points, and PSU is 30-1 since 2001 when they score 30 points or more. Anthony Morelli has been sharp against weak competition, tossing 8 TDs to just 1 INT, and rolling up 628 passing yards. Michigan’s front four has to create pressure; if they don’t, this will be the game Morelli’s been waiting for, where he can finally establish himself as a topflight starter. RB Rodney Kinlaw rose to the occasion against Buffalo, going for 129 yards and a score, while his running mate, Austin Scott, is more the bruiser, averaging just 4.5 yards a pop; Scott is a better redzone option, with 5 scores to Kinlaw’s 2. When Michigan is on offense, they’ll face a Penn State defense that has terrorized foes this year. The Lions are 1^st nationally in rush D, giving up just 18 yards a game. Penn State is 1^st in sacks, 4^th in TFL, 8^th in total yardage D. This is a stout Lions D, and seeing Mike Hart (3^rd nationally in rushing) do battle with the vaunted PSU linebacking corps. Michigan isn’t nearly as bad as they looked against Oregon, and I think make a stand Saturday, and put themselves right back in to the title hunt. Michigan 20, Penn State 16.

Best of the Rest

Iowa (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) at #9 Wisconsin (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten) – A week after dropping a battle to Iowa State, the Hawkeyes find the shoe on the other foot. The Hawkeyes have no answer for why the Cyclones have their number; by the same turn, Iowa’s been inexplicably good against the Badgers in recent years. The lifetime series is tied at 40, and since the Heartland Trophy was christened in 2004, the Hawks have posted three performances against Wisconsin that were among their best of the year, winning 2 of 3 battles. Iowa’s new QB Jake Christensen had plenty of time against ISU, but took 4 sacks because he couldn’t find open receivers. Count on Kirk Ferentz’s ace staff to have plugged some holes since Saturday, but they’ll also be facing an upgraded defensive line in Wisconsin’s front four, who is a solid unit despite posting subpar numbers to date in 2007. After a disappointing defensive outing against the Citadel (31 points, 245 yards against the FCS team), you can bet former Hawkeye Bret Bielema has his troops’ attention. I actually think the Hawks match up awfully well against Wisconsin. Iowa’s front four, led by Kenny Iwebema, Brian Mattison and Mitch King, is a run stuffing monster, and PJ Hill won’t have the kind of spacious gaps he’s enjoyed against lesser foes. Still, this Badger squad is too good to lose at home to Iowa; the Hawks will put up a great effort, but it won’t be enough. Wisconsin 24, Iowa 20.

Ho-Hum

Michigan State (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten) at Notre Dame (0-3) – These teams hate each other. Spartan fans were jacked for last season’s clash, and ND’s dramatic fourth quarter comeback in a monsoon drove the final nail in to John L. Smith’s MSU legacy. Mark D’Antonio is the new sheriff in East Lansing, and the results have been impressive. D’Antonio came to town preaching defense, and the Spartan D has responded; MSU is first nationally in sacks, 3^rd in tackles for loss, 18^th in turnover margin, and 19^th in scoring D. The competition hasn’t been fluff either, with MSU getting home wins over UAB, Bowling Green and Pitt to kick off the year. This will be MSU’s first road trip of 2007, and they return to a Notre Dame Stadium carrying a bit less mystique than it did when the Spartans planted their flag at ND’s 35-yard line following the team’s 2005 win. Plenty of ink has been spilled over ND’s horrific 2007 start, and they’re honestly (gasp) even worse than people think. Can you believe the Irish didn’t practice in pads or work on tackling to the ground since fall practice? And Weis wonders why his offensive line has given up 23 sacks, and the tackling has looked absolutely awful. This is a turning point game for the Irish; I think it’s possible that ND comes out sharp, better and dangerous, and gets a win over a Spartan team leaving home for the first time. But if MSU wins tomorrow, ND will begin the year 0-8; this is by far the most winnable game on the Irish schedule until Navy comes to town in Week Nine. For my money, ND will be better, Jimmy Claussen will show a few flashes of brilliance, but it won’t be quite enough. Michigan State 21, Notre Dame 14.

Purdue (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten) at Minnesota (1-2, 0-0 Big Ten) – If this Golden Gopher football team were a movie, it would be Rush Hour 3; tons of fireworks, explosions and hijinks hiding absolutely no substance. Get this: from the start of the 4^th quarters on, this season’s scoreboard reads Minnesota 66, Opponents 41. That’s 107 in the 4^th quarters and overtimes of just three games. On average, the Gophs are scoring 22 points a game after the third quarter bell, and they’re a lucky FG miss away from being 0-3. Obviously the offensive firepower is there, as QB Adam Weber has already thrown for 794 yards and 10 scores. Remarkably, Weber’s been sacked just once, but the 7 INT, included 4 against Florida Atlantic, are a problem that must be fixed right away. On paper, the offensive line has been great, protecting Weber and opening holes for Amir Pinnix (72 carries, 386 yards) and Weber (42 carries, 194 yards). Obviously, on defense Minnesota isn’t stopping anybody; Minny is 110^th nationally in pass efficiency D, 116^th in total yardage D, 104^th in scoring D, 119^th in turnover margin. OUCH. Curtis Painter & Co., on the other hand, have been dynamite, leading the Big Ten in yards, points and passing efficiency after 3 games. Painter has lit the lamp for 311 yards a game through three, and has an amazing 13-0 TD-INT ratio. The Boiler O-Line has given up just 2 sacks, and coupled with Painter’s pinpoint accuracy, Minnesota just won’t see the ball in good enough position to outscore this Purdue juggernaut. Purdue 44, Minnesota 24.

Boooooooooooooring

Northwestern (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) at #8 Ohio State (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten) – If Minnesota is Rush Hour 3, Northwestern is Scrubs: every season brings so much reason for hope, but eventually collapses under the weight of expectations. The Wildcats dropped a killing loss to Duke last week, ending the Devils’ 22-game losing streak, and setting the Pat Fitzgerald Era back significantly. The ‘Cats are decent at QB (CJ Bacher: 73-124, 838 yards) and RB (Brandon Roberson & Tyrell Sutton: 72 carries, 374 yards), but they don’t protect the QB, don’t get to the QB, don’t attack the othe team’s backfield, and don’t excel on special teams (105^th in punt returns, 91^st in kick returns). This is a bad recipe with which to head to Columbus, where Ohio State is puffing out their chests after reminding the world just how good their program is with last week’s solid win at Washington. This Buckeye defense is shaping up to be one of Tressel’s best, as they currently sit at either 1^st or 2^nd in the league in pass eff. D, scoring D, total D, and pass yards D. Neither of N’Western’s backs are good enough to create problems if the passing game doesn’t work, so look for another workmanlike domination by OSU. Ohio State 38, Northwestern 13.