Monday, September 24, 2007

Big 12 Power Rankings: Week Five

A couple of one-point barn burners, some routs by the top dogs, and a bit of table setting for next week’s rivalries games. Another week in Big 12 country. How do the teams stack up? Check it:

(Remember, this is how good I think teams are right now, not how good they’ll be at season’s end or how favorable their schedule is.)

1. Oklahoma – Still a big fat duh after four weeks of play. The Sooners have absolutely obliterated everything in their path, and currently sit in the top seven nationally in scoring, rush yards, rush D, total D, kick returns, sacks, TFL and sacks allowed. Even against weak competition, those are staggering numbers. The last few OU teams that have looked close to this good have had at least one gag throughout the year, so I’m not penciling them in to the BCS Title Game just yet. However, who is going to stop them? With Missouri, TAMU and Oklahoma State coming to Norman, Texas looks like the only squad with a remote chance of beating the Boomers. Could Allen Patrick be the Big 12’s best back? Could Sam Bradford go to New York as a Heisman finalist? Yikes, this team is scary.

2. Texas – The slaughter-style win over Rice didn’t say a lot, but the ‘Horns did everything they needed to, bouncing back from a squeaker at UCF the previous week. Texas hasn’t looked particularly dominant in any phase of the game, and I’m not convinced they’ll survive the post-OU schedule undefeated. But for now, no one else looks better, and the emergence of Quan Cosby as a major receiving threat has to be encouraging. Against the caliber of competition UT has faced, there’s no excuse for them to be just 8th in the Big 12 against the pass.

3. Missouri – The Tiger offense kept humming with a 38-14 win over Illinois State, and two of Mizzou’s early opponents played great Saturday, making me believe a bit more that this Tiger squad might be for real. Chase Daniel has been one of the nation’s top QBs (116-176 for 1311 yards and 13 scores), and the balanced offense (200 rush ypg, 344 pass ypg) is just killing people. The Tigers now have two weeks to prepare for Nebraska’s visit on October 6th, which might be the program’s biggest game in a decade. For real: if Mizzou wins to go to 5-0, they’ll be favored every game the rest of the season except against the Sooners, and could coast to the Big 12 North title. Can the 102nd ranked pass defense get better? We’ll know in two weeks.

4. Kansas – I’m just as shocked as you are. Who of the below teams would take over the Jayhawks on a neutral field right now? The biggest question mark hanging over KU right now is how differently they’ve played at home and on the road in the Mangino era. They’ve had a particularly hard time with Kansas State; the Jayhawks haven’t won in the Little Apple since 1989. Todd Reesing continues to amaze at QB, at 13th nationally in efficiency and 14th in total offense. The defense hasn’t challenged a real offense yet, and won’t face a good unit until November 3rd when the Huskers come to town. The lines have been the weakest part of each side of the ball: KU is 10th in the Big-12 in sacks allowed and 7th in sacks recorded.

5. Oklahoma State – I’m not sure the Pokes would win again tomorrow, but OSU showed a lot of grit in a big win over Texas Tech, and got a rival’s defensive coordinator fired, to boot. OSU is only 2-2, but Kendall Hunter has been a major bright spot with 98 yards rushing per contest. The defense was predictably shredded against Graham Harrell and Tech, but to only have 6 sacks so far is unacceptable.

6. Texas Tech – For the stat geek, the Red Raider offense is the gift that keeps on giving. How do you throw for 646 yards and lose? How do you have the top ranked pass offense and only the 105th ranked rush offense? One thing that does impress me is the Tech line: they’ve only given up 4 sacks in the face of 227 pass attempts. I know it’s a short drop scheme, but that’s still awfully impressive. Can we talk for a second about this ridiculous stat: There are five receivers in the nation averaging 130 yards a game; with Michael Crabtree and Danny Amendola, Tech has two of them. Odds are this team will be 6-1 heading to Columbia on October 20th; that’ll be the pass D’s chance to show they’re getting better.

7. Nebraska – Husker fans ripped me for ranking this team 5th last week, and I’m not above a good “I told you so.” First things first: Ball State is the class of the MAC, and much better than the national media has given them credit for. But I’ll say what I said last week one more time: Where are the Blackshirts? 75th in total D? 74th in scoring D? 99th in rush D? 111th in sacks? Those numbers are mind boggling. NU has a great opportunity this week against Iowa State; a chance to get healthy against a team ripe for a letdown after a crushing one point loss. Crazy as it sounds, the next two weeks might be two of the biggest in the Callahan era; namely, in determining how long it lasts.

8. Texas A & M – Aggie Nation ripped for ranking this team 7th last week, and I’m not above a good “I told you so.” The Aggies bowl hopes took a big blow in the Orange Bowl last Thursday, as TAMU got brutalized, trailing 31-0 at the end of three quarters. The rushing game rolled up big numbers against some weaker squads, but disappeared against the ‘Canes, with leading rusher Stephen McGee collecting just 39 yards on 16 carries. The pass D has to get better if TAMU wants to compete with Tech and OSU; they’re 11th in the Big 12 in sacks, 11th in pass efficiency D and 9th in passing yardage D.

9. Kansas State – I’ll be honest; I still don’t feel like I know a lot about this Wildcat team yet. Forgive me; the Auburn game doesn’t look as impressive in the rearview mirror as it did at the time, and the SJ State and Missouri State beatings didn’t tell me much, other than these ‘Cats aren’t going to totally stink up the litter box. WR Jordy Nelson is one of my favorite Big 12 players (30 catches, 381 yards) and junior Deon Murphy has been dynamic on punt returns. Any strategy to get the ball in Murphy’s hands more would be great.

10. Colorado – The Buffs might find themselves in more toss-up games for the rest of the year than any other Big 12 squad. For the most part, CU plays the tough teams on its schedule at home, and the weak ones on the road, leaving the a wide window for how they might finish the season. For now, I think they have to be pleased with a 42-0 clobbering of Miami. LB Jordan Dizon is making a big push to be considered one of the conference’s elite defensive players; a year after recording 121 tackles, he’s got 55 in just 4 games, including 4 TFL and 2 sacks.

11. Baylor – The Bears got a big win that people will scoff at Saturday, but don’t listen. Buffalo was geared up and ready to beat their first BCS opponent ever, and Baylor never let the game get close. 6 wins is still a possibility, but the running game better generate more than 3.5 yards a pop if the Bears are going to become bowl eligible. The Baylor D is doing a nice job of harassing opposing QBs, logging 3 sacks a game; that kind of pressure might give them a chance to get a big win over passing attacks at CU, KU or Texas Tech.

Iowa State – No team is better at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory than the Cyclones, and they did it again this week, giving Toledo their first win thanks to what Gene Chizik called an “absolute special teams meltdown.” Bret Meyer is starting to find his stroke for the Cyclones, but mistakes are killing this team right now. Against UNI, it was four turnovers. At Toledo, two TDs surrendered on special forces. The ‘Clones now enter a brutal five game stretch that includes trips to Nebraska, Texas Tech and Missouri mixed in with home dates against Texas and Oklahoma. This team could get a lot better by November, and you

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