It was a big week in Big Ten country; the Wolverines are back, the Buckeyes never left, the Illini arrived and the Badgers survived. Purdue threw and the Spartans won too. Don’t forget, these ratings describe how good I think these teams are right now, not how well I think they’ll finish, or what record they’ll have at season’s end.
1. Ohio State – Boom. One week after reminding a whole lot of people that OSU was still OSU with a big win under the shadow of Mount Rainier, the Bucks dropped the hurt on Northwestern in the 500th game ever at the Horseshoe. The defense certainly hasn’t faced a great offense yet, but the numbers are just insane: 2nd in the NCAA in total D, 3rd in scoring D, 5th in pass D…don’t forget the run D, weak by comparison at 7th in the NCAA. Offenses have combined for 20 points in 4 games against the stone wall front, and with QB Todd Boeckman very quietly leading the Big Ten in pass efficiency (10th nationally), OSU is the best of the lot right now, and its really not close.
2. Purdue – The Boilers aren’t perfect, that’s for sure. But can any of the below teams keep up with them? Even if the D won’t be great, and they won’t be (8th in the Big 10 in scoring D, 9th in yardage D), which of the below teams will score as many points as Curtis Painter & Co? The Boilers have put up 45 twice and 52 twice and lead the conference in passing yards, total yards and points. The most impressive stat might be that, in the face of 171, the ‘Maker offensive line has surrendered just 2 passes. Sure, Painter isn’t taking super-deep drops, but that’s only 1 sack every 85 passes, and Painter is posting the numbers to show for it: 16-1 TD-INT ratio and 1290 yards in 4 games.
3. Michigan – Yep, I’m not kidding. The Wolverines’ D has healed, the moxie is back, and if Chad Henne returns healthy, this team can still contend for the conference title and play somewhere nice on New Year’s Day. Mike Hart is second on my Heisman ballot right now (Graham Harrell’s 1950 passing yards have him at the top), and Shawn Crable is posting a sensational year at LB, with 12 of his 27 tackles coming in the opponent’s backfield. With a defense capable of shutting down an opponent this thoroughly, every little bit of field possession helps; it would be nice to improve on the punt and kick returns, which have both disappointed.
4. Wisconsin – The Badgers haven’t impressed me one bit this year, but I can’t pull the trigger on picking any of the below teams to beat them on a neutral field. Iowa had a couple chances to connect on big pass plays that would have seriously threatened the Badgers’ 4 point lead late Saturday, but receivers dropped passes and fell down, allowing Wisconsin to hold on to a key win. The defense was good against Iowa, but what happened to Tyler Donovan? A week after the Iowa pass D was knocked around in Ames, the Badgers threw for just 138 yards on 23 attempts. It doesn’t seem like typical Wisconsin stuff to be losing the turnover battles, either.
5. Penn State – That slamming sound your hear in the distance is the window closing on Lion QB Anthony Morelli. Morelli and the rest of the offense had chance after chance to mount a memorable drive against Michigan Saturday, but couldn’t get it done. Michigan’s streak against PSU is 9, and Morelli missed his chance to launch himself in to the All Big Ten discussion. The rush D numbers took a hit after Mike Hart’s 150 yard+ performance, but the fighting Paternos are still 6th nationally in rush yards surrendered, and 9th in both scoring D and yardage D. PSU might not face another D all year that needs a win as bad as Michigan did Saturday, but until they produce against a high quality defensive unit, consider me a doubter.
6. Illinois – I was wrong about the tribe. I had Indiana pegged as this year’s Big Ten breakout squad, but the Illini showed me up with a convincing 27-14 win over the Hoosiers this weekend. Is that Red Grange? Nope, just Rashard Mendenhall, going from being basically a nobody on the national radar to cracking the top 10 in rushing yards just 4 games in to his junior campaign. When a team has a breakout year, every game is huge, but this Saturday’s collision with Penn State is really huge. The next three weeks; Wisconsin, at Iowa and Michigan will all be very tough. If the Illini lose to the Lions, they’re headed toward another improved, yet unremarkable year. Beat PSU, and things get very, very interesting.
7. Michigan State – MSU took care of business in South Bend, and while we know the Irish stink, the win was just a little more evidence that some of the headcase ghosts were exercised from East Lansing when Mark D’Antonio put up his name plate. The defense has been great at harassing QBs (1st nationally in sacks, 5th in TFL), and actually pretty darn good overall (14th in scoring D, 14th in yardage D). In a league short on top-flight offenses, this kind of D might keep MSU in some games. If Brian Hoyer keeps improving, these team has an excellent chance to be 6-1 heading to Columbus on October 20th. If MSU wins 7 or more games, D’Antonio will be tough to unseat for coach of the year.
8. Iowa – The Hawks gave a typically gritty Iowa performance in Madison Saturday night, but came up just a little bit short against a Badger squad that outgained them by 76 yards. We’re not going to know how good Jake Christensen is until at least next year when, hopefully, he won’t be throwing passes with 4 of his top 5 WRs unable to play. The schedule is as light as can be in the Big Ten, with Michigan and Ohio State off the docket and all the toss-up games (Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State) at cozy Kinnick Stadium. Iowa can win all three those and still get to eight wins for the year, but either Albert Young or Damien Sims had better step up fast, and the line has to protect Christensen better (98 nationally in sacks allowed).
9. Indiana – Darn it, Indiana. You were my sleeper Big Ten pick since Day One, and I had your back all the way against Illinois. But you got the fumbles early against Illinois, and lost despite winning the yardage battle. Indiana has an offense built to dismantle Iowa’s defensive scheme, but they’ve got to control the ball, move the chains and get to Iowa QB Jake Christensen. The Hoosiers have done a great job of collapsing pockets so far, ranking 3rd in the conference in sacks and TFL, but if Christensen has time Saturday, I’m thinking he’s due for a breakout performance.
10. Minnesota – The Gophs get out of the Big Ten basement, and all it took was a 14-point loss to Purdue! Minnesota’s D has been awful, ranking in the bottom 13 D-I teams in total yards given up, points given up, turnover margin, pass D, sacks and (for good measure) punting average. What could Amir Pinnix (109.75 ypg) and Adam Weber (17th nationally in total offense) do if they weren’t constantly starting drives backed up against their own goal line? We won’t find out. Not in this life time at least.
11. Northwestern - Honestly, I don’t know who would win if Minny played Northwestern, but the ‘Cats sure looked like a team missing a heart, liver, kidney, and several other vital organs in Columbus Saturday. I’m not trying to be a jerk here, but with two games that are just going to leave you bloody, why not take three weeks to prepare for Minnesota, who comes to Evanston on October 13th? The problems start up front – the ‘Cats have three sacks and have given up 12.
No comments:
Post a Comment