Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina Preview

The Hokies looked great in dispatching William & Mary Saturday, 44-3. Tyrod Taylor got a lot of great reps, and the defense brought their A-game. But VA Tech is faced with a strange challenge; thanks to a weird scheduling quirk that gave Virginia three September ACC games, its not even October yet, and the Hokies are already three behind the Cavaliers in the win column. Tech gets their chance to start gaining ground this week against North Carolina. Let’s take a look:

North Carolina (1-3, 0-1 ACC)

Offense: The Heels are off to another bad start, and with Duke finally breaking the two-year losing streak, UNC is probably the ACC’s worst team. But Carolina is not without weapons, as QB T.J. Yates has been a fairly accurate passer to date. Yates is 3rd in the ACC in passing efficiency and 2nd in the conference in total offense (244.50 ypg). Yates was looking like a major freshman of the year candidate before a brutal outing in last week’s 37-10 loss to South Florida. Jim Leavitt’s Bull defense frustrated Yates in to throwing 4 picks and completing just 11 of 27 passes. This week will be a great indication of whether that outing was a one week aberration or if the Bulls wrote the book on how to stop this talented freshman. To say the Carolina rush attack has been anemic would almost be a compliment. The Heels are 110th in the NCAA in rush yards per game, with freshman Johnny White leading the way at 48.5 yards per game. White hasn’t had a single game above 60 yards, and hasn’t been much of a hom run threat either. White won’t get many yards against Tech, but it would help an awful lot to get him some looks through the air as well. White caught 4 balls against East Carolina for 58 yards, and the added dimension helped Carolina to their most impressive offensive output of the year. Yates’ big numbers have helped UNC host three of the ACC’s top 10 pass-catchers, statistically, at this point in the year. Brooks Foster leads the way with 15 catches for 277 yards (5th in ACC in yards) and Hakeem Nicks is next with 18 catches for 243 yards (7th in conference.) Junior Brandon Tate is 10th in the conference with 214 yards on just 8 catches, but Carolina’s long-ball guy disappeared against South Florida, grabbing just one ball for 6 yards. IF the line can’t pass protect (74th in NCAA in sacks allowed), the home run balls aren’t going to be there, and Yates can be contained. Center Scott Lenahan is a returning starter and team captain in the middle of the line.

Defense: Welcome to Butch Ball. The ‘Heel actually hasn’t been that bad, ranking 60th nationally in yards surrendered, and 68th in scoring D. Sure, its not great, but might indicate how this team is going to be built under new sheriff Davis’ tutelage. UNC has been equally mediocre against run and pass, coming in at 59th nationally against the pass and 64th against the run. They’re not pressuring QBs (9th in ACC in sacks, 1.75 per game) but they are sticking a lot of running backs for short losses (4th in ACC in TFL, 7.25 per game), and that has to be seen as a building block on Chapel Hill. One thing UNC isn’t doing is creating turnovers, at a -5 deficit on the year, and the secondary hasn’t helped, snaring a pitiful 2 INT in the first 4 games. There have been some standout individual performers so far, though. LB Durell Mapp is a three-year letterwinner who’s picked up right where he left off at the end of last year’s ACC campaign. Mapp had 87 stops last year, and already has 50 this season, good for tops in the conference and 6th nationally. DL Hilee Taylor is a nice compliment to Mapp, and is really the big threat to do damage to opposing drives. Taylor has 4.5 sacks, including 3 against Virginia, and already has a total of 8 stops for a loss in just four games. Taylor is a senior with just 41 total tackles coming in to the year; the Heels needed someone to step up on the defensive line, and he’s done it. The secondary doesn’t have a lot of top-flight talent; one of the squad’s two pick came courtesy of Deunta Williams, who is still listed on the team roster as a WR. This should be another chance of Tyrod Taylor to build confidence.

Special Teams: Brandon Tate has gotten off to a great start returning both punts and kicks. Tate’s averages of 11 per punt return and 27 per kick return are both in the top 6 in the ACC. Senior kicker Connor Barth hasn’t been given much chance to help out this year, but has been solid throughout his career. He’s 38 of 52 on field goals lifetime.

Prediction: The schedule puts another game in Tech’s path that provides a chance for a lot of the new pieces to learn, develop and get more game reps. This is a particularly nice matchup for Tech because their pass rush should have a chance to really come to life and take away Carolina’s deep threats. Another week, another step toward the division title. Virginia Tech 35, North Carolina 10.

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