Tuesday, September 18, 2007

MAC Power Rankings - Week Four

Here’s another week’s worth of MAC Power Rankings. Remember, this is based on how good I think the teams are right now, not a ranking of their results, or potential, or expected final record. Let’s have at it:

1. Kent State – The Golden Flashes were tops last week, and did nothing to disappoint with a 38-7 beatdown of Delaware State. Eugene Jarvis has posted between 20-25 carries and 113-136 yards in all three outings, and has Kent tops in the MAC in rushing and third in scoring. Akron’s D will be a great test for Jarvis and Julian Edelman this week. How good can the defense be? Kentucky tattooed this team, but they’re obviously a really good football team. We just don’t know that much about this D yet. Can they stop a Zips offense that found its sea legs against Indiana?

2. Ball State – Alright, I’m back on the Ball State bandwagon. I think the season opening loss to Miami opened this team’s eyes, and they’ve been great since, dominating EMU and getting a big win over Navy in OT this weekend. After struggling against the RedHawks, Nate Davis has looked like a beast, throwing 7 TDs to 1 INT while chucking 583 yards in the two games. We probably won’t learn a lot about the defense this week at Nebraska, but eventually they’ll have to stop the run better than they did against Navy.

3. Ohio – The Bobcats didn’t really do anything to disappoint me at Virginia Tech. There was just no way they were going to score many points against a Tech defense that is not only one of the best five in the nation, but was humiliated at LSU last week. Brad Bower has been good for the Bobcats, but to win a conference title, they’ve got to find more receiving targets than Kalvin McRae. In three games, no one other than McRae has more than 7 catches or 98 receiving yards. Some would look at that and like the distribution; I see no go-to guys on the WR corps. A weak passing attack hurt Ohio last year; Frank Solich doesn’t want to see history repeat itself.

4. Bowling Green – The Falcons didn’t play last week, but their two road trips to Big Ten country were awfully impressive. Just like Kent State and Ball State, I need to see some more from the defense. Granted, the competition has been far stiffer than most MAC teams, but BGSU is hovering at 8th in the MAC in total defense. Here’s the real bad news: they’re 11th in sacks, and last in sacks surrendered, with a staggering 5.7 per game. That’s got to change to take the East crown.

5. Central Michigan – The Chips D has been brutal against teams that can throw, and hopefully they can right the ship against North Dakota state and Northern Illinois the next couple weeks. They’re 113th in total D, 113th in scoring D, 114th in pass D, 85th in sacks, and the list goes on. Luckily, the offense has been good, although not quite as solid as it could be. Antonio Brown has been a great option for Dan LeFevour, averaging 7 catches for 75 yards a game to date.

6. Miami – I didn’t expect the Redhawks to beat Cincinnati, but the pitiful performance they gave was reminiscent of last year’s Miami squad, not the one that had beaten Ball State and battled Minnesota to the wire. Who’s going to be the QB for here on out? A month ago, Mike Kokal was sitting next to Head Coach Shane Armstrong at MAC Media Day, now he’s standing next to him on the sidelines, holding a clipboard. It’ll be really interesting to see how the Redhawk defense responds to the drubbing at Colorado this week.

7. Akron – Let’s not get carried away piling on Akron after the Indiana loss this weekend. The Hoosiers are better than advertised, and it looks like the Zips got a steady QB out of the deal, with Carlton Jackson working his way in to the job. The schedule is brutal, and the D will have to be sharp to give the Zips a chance at bowl eligibility. Even after surrendering 41 to Indiana, Akron’s D leads the MAC in turnover margin and tackles for loss, and is second in total D. They need to hit Kent hard this weekend.

8. Buffalo – Teams taking this Bulls squad likely are going to get beaten. After leading the MAC East in conference scoring last year, Buffalo is producing on offense again. 42 points against Temple was an eye opener, but 22 against Penn State might have been more impressive. Sure, there are no moral victories, blah blah blah, but the Bulls battled the Lions for a half, and folks nationally will look at that as Penn State playing poorly instead of the Bulls being improved. They’ll be wrong. Who would have predicted Drew Willy would be throwing the ball so well? He’s got the Bulls leading the MAC in passing efficiency.

9. Western Michigan – Wow. The media pick to win the MAC (not me, I picked them 5th in the West) has been brutal in three games. The Broncos have given up 151 points in three games against a downright nasty schedule, and are looking to get healthy this week against Central Connecticut State. The problem isn’t throwing the ball, where Tim Hiller has tossed 743 yards worth of passes, but the 4-5 TD-INT ratio and the 10 sacks are problematic. The corners and safeties are just awful right now. When WMU heads to Toledo, the scoreboard is going to light up like a Christmas tree.

10. Eastern Michigan – Congrats to the Eagles, who beat a crippled Northern squad to break a 7-game losing streak. LB Daniel Holtzclaw’s Herculean performance should put him in front of the pack for defensive player of the year, but the offense continues to struggle, big-time. 13th in the league in passing and scoring, at least they’re somehow protecting QB Andy Schmitt, giving up just .67 sacks a game.

11. Toledo – The Rockets and their 0-3 record isn’t that shocking; it’s the way Toledo’s lost that’s been so stunning. Three games, 149 points and yards in to the year, its clear that this Rocket secondary isn’t getting better any time soon. Improved pressure on the QB would help; they’re just 7th in the MAC in sacks and last in tackles for loss. Field position would help, too. They’re 11th in punt returns and 13th in kick returns.

12. Temple – The Owls had their hearts broken by a dubious call in the corner of the end zone against UCONN this Saturday, and now they’ve got to challenge a Bowling Green squad coming off an extra prep week. I don’t think we know much about this Temple squad yet, but the numbers aren’t good: their highest conference rating in any major statistical category is 7th in overall defense, and they’re 11th or worst in most categories. Adam DiMichele has been decent at QB, but he’s got to cut down on the picks. He’s thrown 5 to just 3 TDs.

13. Northern Illinois – This is a team in freefall. Coach Novak is struggling to replace all the departed talent, and snapping Eastern’s 7 game losing streak isn’t the vote of confidence his troops needed that they’re on the right track. With the losses of Garrett Wolfe, Phil Horvath, and most of the line on offense, Novak needed his D to step up. They haven’t. They’re not getting to the QB (11th in sacks), not pursuing the backs (12th in TFL), and not creating turnovers (last in turnover margin). It’s going to be a long year in DeKalb.

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