Orange Bowl Preview

FEDEX ORANGE BOWL – Jan. 3rd, 8:00 EST

Virginia Tech vs. Kansas –

10-2, and champions of the ACC: just like I predicted to start the year. One thing I never would have predicted would be that the Hokies would get the Kansas Jayhawks, third place team in the Big 12, as a reward for their conference championship. Surely the ACC champs ought to beat the Big 12’s third best, right? Let’s check it out:

Kansas (11-1, 7-1 Big 12)

Offense: The Jayhawks roared out of the gates in September on the strength of an offense that scored so quickly, and so often, that it immediately forced opponents to alter their game plans just to keep up. KU dropped an average of 53.5 ppg on its first four opponents and then, after a 30-point ‘off-week’ against K-State, dropped another 58 on Baylor. When KU met Mizzou in Kansas City on Thanksgiving weekend, QBs Todd Reesing and Chase Daniel were at a crossroads. The two had put up similar numbers, with similar records and similar accompanying shock around their success. Whichever QB had the better game was going to be a Heisman finalist, and Daniel dominated the game, earning his ticket to New York. But Reesing’s year was equally spectacular. The junior went 256-409 this year, with an unbelievable 32:6 TD:INT ratio. Three of the picks came against K-State, and other than that, the numbers are even gaudier, 29:3. Will Reesing be an NFL QB? Heck no, but he’s been in a zone this year, reaching rare air with his accuracy and decision making. Reesing and KU haven’t been tested like they will be against VA Tech, and rattling Reesing is the best way to ruin KU’s offense. In the ‘Hawks’ two closest calls of the year, a tight win at K-State and the Mizzou loss, Reesing threw 5 of his 6 picks.

The rushing game was good for 197 ypg, 27^th nationally, and Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp are both solid backs, top ten in the Big 12. McAnderson, the senior, topped the century mark 5 times, with a mighty three game stretch of 434 yards and 8 TDs against A&M, Nebraska and Oklahoma State. Sharp, the sophomore, was the counter punch, going for 788 yards and 7 scores on the year; but Sharp was absent against Kansas, a fact that has been lost on the post-game commentary of that contest.

Junior WR Dexton Fields had a breakout year, with 56 catches for 733 yards and 6 scores. Unlike Reesing, Fields was at his best in the Jayhawks’ closest battles, catching a combined 14 balls for 194 yards against K-State and Mizzou. Marcus Henry is the home run threat in the passing game, turning 52 catches in to 994 yards and 9 scores. Henry is a big-time, grand slam kind of guy, and he benefits from Fields’ success over the middle. Fields will try to draw the safeties in, and Henry will find the deep seams.

KU’s offensive line was actually fairly mediocre this year, considering how good the offense was. The line was 47^th in the nation in sacks surrendered. I haven’t heard yet officially if Anthony Collins, the 310-lb. left tackle will play against the Hokies, but he’s probably the best offensive lineman. Collins dinged a leg against Iowa State, and he’s chiefly responsible for protecting Reesing’s backside. If Collins is out, the likelihood that Tech can create effective pressure on Reesing, and force the game-changing turnovers, goes way, way up. Center Ryan Cantrell will make the line calls in the no-huddle attack, and RT Cesar Rodriguez is KU’s only senior starting lineman.

Defense

Of all the reasons KU went 11-1 this year, a +1.58 turnover margin, tops in the entire nation, was the biggest. The Jayhawks were amazing at creating possession-changing plays and preventing them on the offensive end of the football. The defense deserves tons of credit for that, obviously, and the superstar of the KU defense is Aqib Talib. You’ve heard the name before, but remember it – I haven’t seen a lot of defensive players on Talib’s level when it comes to anticipation and vision. Talib only had 4 picks this year, and only one since October 6^th. He’s such a deadly pass picker, though, that he really won’t get much action, and Tech would be wise to throw away from him whenever possible. Talib also had 61 tackles and 8 receptions this year. He’s a great college football player, as good as KU has anywhere on the field.

The Jayhawks’ three leading tacklers are a trio of junior LBs that all finished in the top 14 in the Big 12 in dragging down opponents. Joe Mortensen, James Holt and Mike Rivera all nabbed 7+ tackles per outing, and comprise a linebacking corps that isn’t going to miss a lot of tackles, and is going to have the freedom to chase opposing backs all over the shop. Each of the backers is capable of taking over a game on the defensive end. In three of KU’s closest contests, against Mizzou, Colorado and Kansas State, Mortensen had 11+ tackles in each. And against the Buffaloes, in what has to be one of the toughest outings of any defensive player this year, Holt logged 12 solo tackles in a 19-14 slugfest. Running right at these guys probably isn’t the best strategy for the Hokies. I like a steady diet of counter and misdirection plays that capitalize on KU’s desire to pursue ball carriers with a vengeance.

KU’s weakness on defense is its front four, which finished 80^th nationally in sacks despite the fact that teams were passing against the Jayhawks constantly because of the huge leads they ran up. However, the defense was 4^th nationally in scoring allowed, and 14^th in yards, so even this d-line isn’t weak. Just vulnerable. Sophomore stud DL Maxwell Onyegbule was the sack leader, but only got one in Big 12 play. The real star of the line is James McClinton, a second-team All-American who made 11 TFL and 38 total tackles this year, and made himself a fixture in opposing backfields all day, every day. Stop McClinton, beat KU. It’s pretty simple. Caleb Blakesley and Russell Brorsen are decent parts of the machine, but McClinton will draw the double teams, and rightfully so.

Special Teams

Kicker Scott Webb probably never dreamed that when he came to KU, he’d score 114 points in a season, good for 2^nd in the Big 12. But that’s what he did in 2007, a tribute to KU’s dynamite offense and his accurate kicking leg. An interesting thing about Webb is that he doesn’t really scatter his misses; he’s either on or off. In two games this year, A&M and Mizzou, Webb went 2 for 7 on FGs. Over the other ten, he went 15 for 17. I’m not going to call the kid a head case, by any means, but Tech should know early if he has it or not. Kansas is awful in the punting game, absolutely awful. Kyle Tucker averaged less than 40 yards a boot this year, and the coverage was bad, too. 111^th in the country in net punting is an awful way to try to win football games. The seams will start to show against the Hokies, when KU has to punt a little more than it likes.

Prediction

The Jayhawks aren’t the dog a lot of folks on the eastern seaboard think they are. This is a team that was much more in it against Mizzou than a lot of people realized that didn’t watch the contest, and any time a team scores 43 or more points in 8 of 12 games, I’m going to give their offense some credit.

However, I like Tech’s 8^th ranked sack unit and 2^nd ranked scoring D to be able to do some things KU hasn’t seen, better than the Jayhawks expect. Pressure leads to Reesing errors, and as we’ve established, Reesing errors lead to KU struggles. Conversely, the one thing KU doesn’t do very well, rush the passer, is something teams have to do to beat Tech. Reesing, Fields and Talib will each make a couple plays that leave Hokie fans shaking their heads, but VA Tech will get a big special teams play and take control of the game in the third quarter, bringing the Orange Bowl trophy for a year’s residence in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech 27, Kansas 17.

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl Preview

KONICA MINOLTA GATOR BOWL – Jan. 1^st, 1:00 EST

Virginia vs. Texas Tech –

In the ACC’s only New Year’s Day contest, the Hokie-vanquished Cavaliers draw explosive Texas Tech as a reward for their surprising 9-3 campaign. As has been well-documented in my column space this year, I’m from the camp that thinks this UVA was at least as much lucky as good, benefiting from 5 wins of 2 points or less. But they obviously had some mojo working for them, taking only two losses since the opening beating at Wyoming. Texas Tech is a tough team to get a bead on, one capable of greatness (beating Oklahoma, 34-27) and utter mediocrity (losses to Colorado and Oklahoma State).

I’m excited about this game. There’s almost no way this game will not be exciting. On one hand, we’ve got UVA, who played to the wire time after time in 2007, and on the other, there’s Texas Tech, one of the nation’s most perpetually thrilling teams, a squad that will always keep both teams in the game. One of the great mysteries of the past season is why Graham Harrell never got the media love that Hawaii’s Colt Brennan did. Harrell led the nation in total offense, and the Red Raider passing attack was tops nationally as well. The QBs were almost identically matched in TDs and efficiency; obviously, Harrell’s competition was much tougher. One thing Harrell had that Brennan didn’t was Michael Crabtree – the freshman sensation topped the nation in receiving TDs and yards per game, and became the first freshman ever to win the Biletnikoff Award, for the nation’s top receiver. Crabtree is an unbelievable talent, and to say UVA will have its hands full with him is the understatement of the year.

Tech’s dink-and-dunk, quick strike passing attack should be able to neutralize the formidable UVA pass rush, which is led by future top-10 pick Chris Long. Long was 3^rd in the nation in sacks this year, but he won’t have near the time he’s used to against the Raiders. Cavalier defenders Clint Sintim and Jeffrey Fitzgerald are also in the top 12 in ACC sackmeisters, but this key component of the UVA defensive approach just won’t be in play against Tech. The Raiders will throw quickly, and pick on mismatches in the UVA secondary. Unfortunately, the Cavs weren’t a great outfit in the back four – middle of the ACC pack defending the pass, despite habitually clamping down in the red zone.

UVA just isn’t cut out to hang with Texas Tech in this game. This is a team just a few points away from being .500, facing an offense that will render completely useless its best defensive asset. A big win for the Big 12 on Jan One. Texas Tech 38, UVA 20.

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL – Dec. 31st, 7:30 EST

Clemson vs. Auburn –

As far as New Year’s eve fare goes, this is a great one, matching up one of the ACC’s classic underachievers against one of the SEC’s chronic overachievers. Without a lot of high-profile talent, at least as far as the SEC goes, Auburn did wonders this year, notching wins over Florida and Alabama, and nearly, so nearly beating soon-to-be national champion LSU. On the other side of the coin, Clemson is the Alabama of the ACC, gagging in big games and looking like giant killers against the sisters of the poor. The Tigers went 9-3 this year, with impressive wins over Wake, South Carolina and Florida State; but against teams with nasty run Ds, they got creamed, taking three on the chin from BC and the two Techs.

There’s an inherent rivalry between the ACC and SEC, with so much mutual turf, and in Clemson, the ACC might have sent the wrong knife to a gun fight. The Tigers have big time weapons in rushers James Davis (83 ypg) and CJ Spiller (54 ypg), and receiver Aaron Kelly (tops in the ACC in ypg). Kelly and junior WR Tyler Grisham were both top five in the league in catches, and if Cullen Harper has time to get them the ball, they’ll do damage. On the other side of the ball, Auburn is a conundrum on defense. They’re awful at getting to QBs, with rankings in the 90s in sacks and TFL. But the pass D is outstanding, at 6^th in the country and 2^nd in the SEC. What’s the explanation? Some great, underappreciated corners, starting with senior Patrick Lee (51 tackles, 4 INT) and sophomore Jerraud Powers (57 tackles, 4 INT). Short of the VA Tech secondary, Auburn’s will probably be the best Clemson has faced this year. Harper, who tossed 27 TDs against just 6 picks this year, will be hard pressed to survive without throwing an INT or two. Despite all the weaponry boasted by Clemson, however, their history of collapsing in big games doesn’t excited me if I’m a South Carolinian.

On the offensive side of the ball, Auburn has the least yards per game of any 8+ win team in the nation, at just 327 ypg. As Ben Tate peaked in mid-season, the Auburn rush game carried the offense to wins at Arkansas and Florida. But Tate lost steam down the stretch, as did freshman Mario Fannin. Brandon Cox has caught a lot of heat from Auburn fans over the years, some deserved, but his lockdown, clutch as clutch can be performances against Florida and LSU this year signified that he’s really turned the corner, finally, to be a very solid SEC QB.

Cox will have a big game in his Auburn swan song, and the boys from Auburn win the battle of the Tigers in surprisingly easy fashion. Auburn 24, Clemson 10.

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl

GAYLORD HOTELS MUSIC CITY BOWL – Dec. 31st, 4:00 EST

Kentucky vs. Florida State –

One of the more intriguing bowl matchups went down the toilet when thirty-some Seminole players decided to take a little extra help on exams. Most Vegas books took this game off the live-wagering section a long time ago, with Kentucky as a 3 point favorite or so. Who knows what the line would be now, but it’s almost impossible to imagine that Florida State’s second teamers can hang with the Wildcats, a team that beat LSU and would probably win against FSU’s best.

So, we don’t really know what to expect in this one. We know Kentucky, so let’s talk about the ‘Cats. Andre Woodson is getting lots of buzz as a top ten draft pick in this year’s draft, and he gamely led the ‘Cats offense to the 14^th best scoring output in the nation. Woodson trailed only Heisman-winner Tim Tebow in the SEC in total offense and pass efficiency, and can certainly light up a scoreboard with the best of them. Woodson wasn’t the whole story in Lexington, though; Rafael Little was 3^rd in the SEC in rushing yards and 14^th in receiving yards. Woodson was as good as anyone in the world this season at spreading the ball around to multiple targets. Five, count ‘em five Wildcat receivers were in the top 13 in the SEC in catches. The list includes Keenan Burton, Steve Johnson, Jacob Tamme, Dicky Lyons and Little – all with 4+ catches per game, all great targets to stretch and confuse a defense.

On defense, Jeremy Jarmon is on track to be the next great SEC pass rusher. Jarmon posted 8 sacks this year, and 58 total tackles; if he keeps improving, he’ll be a great one. Wesley Woodyard, a senior LB, led the SEC in tackles with 10.25 a game, and is your classic chase ‘em all over the field type.

This is a short preview, because I’ve got no idea what to expect from the ‘Noles, or if more suspensions will come down in the next few days. This has been an odd season, but if FSU wins a split squad contest against Kentucky just down the road from UK, that’ll take the cake. Kentucky 38, Florida State 14.

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl

ROADY’S HUMANITARIAN BOWL – Dec. 31st, 2:00 EST

Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State –

Now that Boise State has graduated to bigger and better bowl pastures, the H-Bowl folks have to bring in outsiders to luscious Boise, and they’ve got a contest this year that should compete for the bottom ladder run in bowl attendance and interest. From the ACC, the Ramblin’ Wreck was a walking, talking definition of “mediocrity” this season, finishing 7-5 with a 4-4 conference mark. Tech’s only win over a winning team came in late September, when it somehow beat Clemson, 13-3. From the WAC, Fresno State almost nipped Texas A&M early, then rebounded from a 1-2 start to finish 8-4. Of course, a 6-2 WAC record isn’t world-beater stuff, but when the two losses are to Boise State and Hawaii, you clap your hands, tip your hat, and say “nice year.” Whichever one of these teams wins in Boise will finish on an up note and feel good; the loser will realize how average their season truly was.

The Bulldogs of FSU have a kick return specialist with a name as flashy as his game. A.J. Jefferson, the nation’s leading kickoff return man, averaged 35+ yards per return this year, and ripped off TDs in back to back contests against Utah State and Hawaii. Jefferson’s success with the pig won’t make or break Fresno in this game, but it’ll be fun to watch. Fresno State’s defense doesn’t look great when you crunch the numbers on a national scale; 26.92 ppg allowed is nothing to write home about. However, in the offenses-on-crack world of the WAC, that number is good for 3^rd in the league, and illustrates that the Bulldogs should be able to stay competitive, especially against a lukewarm attack like Georgia Tech’s. The D is led by bruising senior LB Marcus Riley, a top 25 tackler nationwide and of the most effective and consistent stoppers in that league. The rush D isn’t top notch, at 88^th nationally, and that means Tech RB Tashard Choice should get his chances. Choice produced one of the more unheralded seasons of the year, rolling up 110 yards or more in 8 games and giving Taylor Bennett one of the best insurance policies in the country. To top it off, Fresno certainly hasn’t seen a pass rush like Tech’s, which was tops in the nation in sacks, led by linemen Vance Walker and Darrell Robertson.

You’ve always got to be careful of teams excited to play taking on teams in a let down game. I can’t imagine that, in the midst of coaching turnover and coming off an ACC divisional title last year, the mood around Atlanta is buzzing over Boise. Fresno gets an upset that defies explanation. Fresno State 28, Georgia Tech 23.

Meineke Car Care Bowl Preview

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL – Dec. 29^th, 1:00 EST

UCONN vs. Wake Forest –

Of all great football stories of 2007, UCONN might have been the most unpredictable. Randy Edsall built a program in Storrs virtually from scratch; ten years ago, before this team was even D-I, bowl games and national rankings weren’t yet a glimmer in Edsall’s eye. However, success didn’t happen over night. Change has been in the water for several years in the great northeast, and this year the tide turned big-time in the form of program changing wins over Louisville, South Florida and Rutgers on three consecutive weekends. Down in Winston-Salem, Wake followed up its ACC championship with a solid, but ho hum 8-4 campaign that would have been much, much better if it had only held off Virginia, to whom the Deacons lost by 1 in early November. Still, Wake boss Jim Grobe is getting offers from every big school that looks for a coach, a tribute to the overhaul he’s done there.

Just like it did to win the title last year, Wake won ugly over and over again this year. How many 8-win teams boast the 97^th best offense in the nation? Virginia Tech, Virginia and Auburn are the only 8-win teams lower on the offensive totem pole, but all three of those squads have defenses in the top 17 nationally; Wake’s isn’t nearly that dominant, ranking just 9^th in the ACC. Yet still, the Deacons have made a living under Grobe by gutting out the close ones, evidenced this year in gut-check wins over Maryland (7, OT), Duke (5) and Florida State (3). In general, Wake isn’t going to beat itself, ranking 16^th nationally in turnover margin this year, but sophomore QB Riley Skinner did show a weakness for the INT, throwing 12 against just 11 TDs this year.

When the Deacons look across the field at UCONN, they’ll see a familiar resemblance. The Huskies have a pretty bad offense (84^th nationally), a great turnover margin (7^th nationally), and won all their big games ugly (Louisville by 4, USF by 7, Temple by 5). These two teams even lost to Virginia by the exact same score, 17-16. Where UCONN is a bit stronger is under center, where Tyler Lorezen boasted a 13:5 TD:INT ratio on the year, and never threw more than 1 pick in a game. Lorenzen can run, too, with a 304 yard total the complimented Andre Dixon (80 ypg) and Donald Brown (68 ypg) throughout the year.

It’s the battle of the uglies in Charlotte, but with a home-state crowd and a lot more experience doing what they do, Wake should win the ball game. UCONN hasn’t won on the road since September 22^nd, and that won’t change now. Wake 20, UCONN 16.

Emerald Bowl Preview

EMERALD BOWL – Dec. 28^th, 8:30 EST

Maryland vs. Oregon State –

The Terps were one of football’s most confounding squads in 2007. Maryland was as competitive as anyone against West Virginia in the season’s first half. A win at Rutgers and a win at home against Georgia Tech had Maryland at 4-2 and looking like a dark horse ACC title contender. Then home losses to UVA and Clemson preceded a painful road loss at North Carolina, putting Maryland at 4-5 and on the cusp of bowl elimination. But a huge win over BC in the home finale gave the Terps just the boost they needed to sneak in to bowl eligibility at 6-6. Over on the left coast, Oregon State got off to a dubious beginning, dropping lopsided battles at Cincinnati and Arizona State. What we didn’t know in September was that those two squads would be two of college football’s biggest surprises this year, and the losses weren’t nearly as bad as they looked at the time. Since September, the Beavers are a sparkling 6-1, with only a loss at USC against their record.

OSU is second to only Boston College nationally in stopping the run, surrendering just 74.92 yards a game in the pass-happy Pac 10. But the pass D is pretty solid, too, ranking 31^st nationwide in efficiency D, despite giving up quite a few yards. The Beaver defense is led by Derrick Doggett, who averaged 7+ tackles a game and finished 11^th in the Pac-10 in TFL. As good as the rush D was, the pass rush was even better. OSU was 3^rd in the country in sacks and 6^th in TFL; you don’t find a lot of teams that boast 3 of its league’s top 8 sackers, but the Beavers had Victor Butler, Slade Norris and Dorian Smith all in the Pac-10’s top ranks this year. All this is really bad news for the Terps, who were absolutely terrible at protecting its backfield this year. Maryland ranked 107^th nationally in sacks allowed, giving up a brutal 3.17 QB takedowns a game. With OSU bringing the heat, can Chris Turner (3^rd in the ACC in efficiency) avoid the rush and make throws down field? Not likely, as Turner isn’t exactly the model of escapability; with 39 rushes for -14 yards, Turner isn’t the type of QB to beat the Beaver D. To top it off, Keon Lattimore, who started the year with 4 100-yard games in his first five tries, disappeared at midseason, and hasn’t stopped the century mark since September. Leon Bell has been solid in his stead (7^th in ACC rushing yards), but the Terps just don’t have the horses to outrun OSU, especially in San Francisco, where the Beavers will get a virtual home game. Oregon State 35, Maryland 17.

Champs Sports Bowl Preview & Prediction

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL – Dec. 28^th, 5:00 EST

Boston College vs. Michigan State –

Despite boasting different records, the Eagles and Spartans followed similar trajectories in 2007. MSU burst out of the gates 4-0, making the Mark Dantonio hire look like one of the most astute personnel moves of the offseason. But then came OT losses at Northwestern and Iowa and heartbreakers to Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State in a 6 game span. The second-half swoon ended with clutch wins over Purdue and Penn State, but everything State did so well in the first half of the year (rush the passer, run the football) began tailing off and never fully recovered. In New England, BC was ranked #2 in the land, and people were touting Matt Ryan as the next great NFL QB, despite his weak pass efficiency rating, mired in the 40s nationally most of the year. Then BC came to Blacksburg, and even though the Eagles escaped with a 14-10 win, they didn’t catch their collective breath until three weeks later, after two devastating losses to Florida State and Maryland. And even though Tech didn’t get the win at home, it finished the job in December that it started in October, rolling to the ACC crown and giving BC its third loss.

Even though this contest hasn’t been talked about much nationally, it strikes me as one of the most intriguing bowl matchups of the season. Each team’s strength plays at the other squad’s strength. Michigan State started the year with the fiercest pass rush in the nation, and even though they’ve since dropped to 12^th nationally in sacks, but getting in to opponents’ backfields is still a priority and skill for the Spartan D. On the other side, BC’s front line was the ACC’s best at protecting its QB this year, allowing 1.46 sacks a game, tops in the conference. Flip the units, and you’ve got BC’s top-ranked national rush D taking on the MSU ground game, which was 23^rd in the country, and features Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, two of the Big Ten’s top 9 runners.

I picked Michigan State before the bowl season started, but with key components Jonal Saint-Dic, SirDarean Adams and Terry Love left in East Lansing thanks to rules violations, I’ve got to take Boston College. Closer than some think, but a win for the ACC. BC 28, Michigan State 20.

Is College Football A Sport?

When at a bar and bored of dull talk, I can always count on one back-pocket conversation piece to kick-start interesting dialogue, regardless of my company.

The game is “Sport/Not a Sport”, and it asks one simple question: Is _________ a sport, or is it not a sport? The game is great because everyone, even non-sports fans, have strong opinions. Women are typically quick to defend gymnastics; guys often advocate rugby. In the last three years, “Sport/Not a Sport” has never failed me, not once, in provoking some interesting barstool conversation.

When judging “Sport/Not a Sport”, I stick to one hard and fast criterion: if a game involves a judge, like figure skating or gymnastics, it’s not a sport. Because my number one standard for a sport, after all, is that its outcomes are settled on the field rather than in the imagination. Based on this standard, the game I love most, college football, must now sadly be reconsidered on its validity as a true sport. With this week’s anointing of Ohio State and LSU as the nation’s two best teams, college football fans have to ask themselves the question: Is this game we love still a real sport?

The NFL selects and seeds its 12 postseason qualifiers based solely on their records. The NBA and the NHL choose 16 on the same criteria. Major League Baseball takes 8. The list goes on; MLS, Wimbledon, the Masters, the World Cup…every major United States sporting event allows its finalists to play off for the title at season or event’s end. Even the NCAA basketball tournament, which does feature a selection process, chooses 64 teams and features one defining caveat: if a team wins their league tournament, they will get a chance to play for the national title.

And yet, college football, the only major American game without a season-ending playoff, is the institution which needs one the most.

Consider this: the most rudimentary of statistical understanding dictates that more trials of a given event will yield more accurate results. For example, flipping a coin 1,000 times will render a heads/tails frequency much closer to the coin’s true nature than doing so just 10 times. And now consider that college football offers its participants the least trials of every major American game. With just 12 games in every season, there are far less trials than the NFL (16), NHL and NBA (82) and Major League Baseball (162). The tiny amount of trials in college football, by comparison, yields a sample size that is woefully inept in its ability to determine a “best team”.

And then there is the matter of cross-pollination. Every NFL team plays 60% of its own conference every single year. Every NBA and NHL team plays every other team in the entire league at least once. There are far more opportunities in these other leagues to judge teams head-to-head, via common opponents, etc. But yet, in college football, top teams rarely, if ever, share a common schedule. Between the six major conference champions (Ohio State, LSU, Oklahoma, USC, West Virginia and Virginia Tech), there was just one head-to-head matchup during this season. How many common opponents did the six teams share? 3, between the 6 (Washington, Miami, Mississippi State), and not a single one of the matchups in question took place after October 20^th.

But see, even now, we are getting off the track. The entire debate, spurred on by the power brokers at ESPN and from the BCS, as to “Who Belongs in the Title Game?” is a red herring, a false choice with no true purpose other than to distract audiences from the lie that is the Bowl Championship Series. With identical records (5 of the above 6 champions have 2 losses) and no shared opponents, it is a puzzle with no interlocking pieces. They all deserve a title shot. There is no answer.

In what true sport would the four teams in competition with one another for a coveted spot (let’s say, Oklahoma, USC, LSU and West Virginia), “compete” against one another, but never see the field of play in the same city on any given Saturday, and have no idea if they had won or lost until the sun rose Sunday morning?

Let us do away, also, with the absurd notion that the BCS system must be preserved because “every week is a playoff.” This idea is ridiculous on its face. If every week were a playoff, Hawaii would be wearing the national championship crown already, as Division I’s only unbeaten team. If every week were a playoff, our two “national championship finalists” would not be teams that had lost their next to last game. If every week were a playoff, it would have to be called a triple-elimination beauty pageant playoff, since two-loss LSU has been selected as the “most impressive” two-loss squad, and given yet another chance at glory in this wackiest of college football seasons.

Advocates of the “every week is a playoff” argument make the crucial mistake of transposing the words “playoff” and “exciting.” No, every week is not a playoff. Every team in the season-end title conversation LOST. So stop with that right now. But yes, every week of football was exciting this season, as exciting as it has ever been.

And do you somehow mean to tell me that if we undertook a system where the 6 major conference winners and the 2 highest rated minor conference winners engaged in an 8 team playoff, things would somehow get less exciting? Do you mean to tell me that if Team A could be guaranteed a spot in the big huzzah by winning its conference title, but have no chance if it didn’t win the conference crown, the year would somehow become less exciting?

No, obviously not. You would have playoff games all over the map on the season’s final day. Missouri v. Oklahoma, LSU v. Tennessee and Virginia Tech v. Boston College would all have been outright, bona fide playoff games, instead of wait-and-see beauty pageants.

If the system rewarded teams for only their conference play, major powers wouldn’t be as afraid to play other powers out of conference. Games like 2005’s Ohio State vs. Texas would become more commonplace. Teams like Hawaii would have a fighting chance of getting a good team to play them, since that team wouldn’t be out of the national title conversation with a loss. Every game would truly matter, so much more so than it does now. It would be great for college football.

And isn’t that was this is supposed to be about? What’s great for college football? Not what’s great for the bowl executives, running their bowls like the exhibition-match, civic events that they are, picking teams who will “draw more” and not teams that are the best available? Not great for the networks, who are somehow convinced that they can squeeze more coverage out of the insulting “Who’s #1” debate instead of the undeniable cash cow that would be a playoff? Isn’t it supposed to be fair?

In closing, I ask you, fan of college football: what real sport would stand for this? What real sport would allow its greatest prize, the crown jewel of America’s favorite past time, the National Championship of College Football, to be decided by judges? What makes college football different now from figure skating, gymnastics, and the like? When records do not matter (LSU has more losses than Kansas and Hawaii combined), when the top teams in consideration never play each other, when the coveted bowls choose teams based on projected attendance instead of quality, what are we left to do other than wonder why the regular season even matters?

Why play a conference championship game, like Missouri did, when losing will put you below the team you just beat (Kansas) the previous week? Why play a season at all when you’re Hawaii, and you are the only team in the entire nation to go undefeated, but you can’t get anyone to come to the islands to play you? Why do it? What does it matter?

I have nothing against LSU. They are as good a choice as any given the false choice with which we have been presented. They may very well be the 1^st, 2^nd or 5^th best football team in the country. No one alive could make a convincing argument that LSU is definitively better or worse than Ohio State, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, USC or Hawaii.

As the old adage goes, “That’s why they play the games.”

Except in college football, they don’t.

C-USA Title Game Preview

The Golden Hurricane are a touchdown-sized underdog to UCF in this weekend’s C-USA title tilt in Orlando. Can Paul Smith and Tulsa make this trip to Disney a happy one? Let’s take a good hard look at the opponent:

UCF (9-3, 7-1)

Offense: The Knights’ offensive attack, quite frankly, begins and ends with running back Kevin Smith. All told, the offense is 33^rd best in the nation and 4^th in C-USA at 425.67 yards per game. The rushing attack has rolled up an awesome 237 yards per outing, good for 10^th nationally and 2^nd in the league. Smith is the horse, leading the nation at 180 yards per game. Smith is a fantastic running back in almost every way; he’s productive, obviously, but he’s also durable, with 20 or more carries in 11 of 12 games this year, and he’s consistent, with 124 yards or more in the same 11 games. A telling stat is this: in UCF’s three losses, Smith has put up his 9^th, 10^th and 12^th biggest rushing outings of the year. If Tulsa holds him to 140 yards or less, it’ll win. Period.

Under center, senior Kyle Israel has been the Knights’ mostly primetime signal caller after splitting a few early snaps with Michael Greco. The passing offense is 98^th in the nation and worst in the C-USA, but some of the weakness is due to the huge emphasis on running the football. In efficiency, UCF ranks 49^th nationally, a serviceable number, and Israel has been just good enough to take the heat off Smith. Israel is in the top 40 nationally in QB rating, with one of the best outings coming against Tulsa in October, where he threw for 21-29 for 224 yards and a TD. He’s certainly been better later in the year, with at least one TD the last 6 games, but he’s also thrown a pick in each of the last 4. The UCF attack shapes up as a classic “gang up on Smith, and make Israel beat you.” He might, but that strategy is truly Tulsa’s only hope.

Rocky Ross leads UCF in most receiving categories, with 3.75 catches and 47.33 per game. Ross is probably the only receiver in the country with almost 600 yards on the year that hasn’t topped 100 in any single game this year. He’s not a guy that is going to go off for 12 catches and 150 yards, but he is Israel’s standby in the passing game. The reality is, because Smith is going to draw all Tulsa’s focus, Ross will get his catches. Can they come at times which don’t break the D’s backs? We’ll see.

The offensive line O’Leary has built is a good one, and not just at plowing turf for Smith to conquer. They’ve protected Israel to the tune of just 1.33 sacks allowed per game, good for 2^nd in the C-USA. However, they are vulnerable. UCF doesn’t throw much, but Tulsa has to be much more active on the defensive front than in the October meeting. Roy Roberts got Tulsa’s only sack in part one. If Tulsa has to bring blitzes to get pressure, the potential for Smith’s home run scampers goes up a ton.

Defense: UCF’s D is one of the more balanced outfits in the C-USA. Ranking 46^th in rushing D, 53^rd in total D and 65^th in scoring. They haven’t been great in the red zone, so Tulsa will have to convert on every chance they can.

The overall strength of the D is certainly against the pass, setting up a great matchup with Paul Smith and the Tulsa offense. UCF’s pass efficiency is 1^st in the C-USA. They’re only 5^th in yards allowed, but that’s because they’ve got the most wins in the league and are constantly in the lead. It starts up front, where UCF is tops in the league in sacks and 3^rd in tackles for loss.

Sophomore linebacker Bruce Miller is a breakout star in the league, with 6 solo sacks and 33 total tackles. Miller got to Paul Smith twice in Orlando, Part One for two big sacks, and somebody better put a hat on him, because he’s got 5 sacks in the last 6 games, and will be Smith’s public enemy number one when he drops back to pass. Senior DL Leger Douzable also has 5 solo sacks and 12 TFL. It seems like Douzable’s tackles are always back breakers, with 50 total loss yards on the 12 this year. He’s a big key to UCF’s D, setting opponents in 2^nd/3^rd and unconvertible longs.

In the secondary, Joe Burnett is the guy avoid, with a conference leading 6 INT. Burnett is yet another member of the UCF defense that is on fire lately, with 4 picks in the last three games. Burnett is a pretty decent punt returner, too, when he gets the chance, but his main function is as a pass-deterrent, and he’s pretty good at it. Elsewhere in the secondary, Sha’reff Rashad is kind of a feast or famine ‘backer. Yeah, he’s got the 4 picks, but he also struggles to cover receivers in certain situations and is forced to make a ton of solo tackles to compensate. Rashad, in my mind, is the guy to pick on in the UCF secondary.

Special Teams: While Burnett is decent on the punt returns, Curtis Francis is the home run hitter returning kickoffs for the Knights. At 9^th in the nation with a 29 yards per return average, he hasn’t gotten a ton of chances to return balls since taking one to the house against East Carolina. Nevertheless, if he’s on the field, he shouldn’t be kicked to. Michael Torres is one of the nation’s most accurate kickers, with 16 of 18 field goals and 45 of 46 extra points. He’s obviously not part of the defensive game plan, but if Tulsa finds their chances riding on a Torres miss, they’ll be disappointed.

Prediction: Tulsa’s up against it in this one, folks. Almost everything UCF does well plays in to beating the Golden Hurricane, and we’ve already seen it once in the 44-23 drubbing in October. No way this contest gets that out of hand, but I don’t think Tulsa can hold Smith to a buck fifty, and Paul Smith might struggle just enough with the UCF corners to make one too many mistakes. I hope I’m wrong, but the money’s on UCF: UCF 38, Tulsa 28.

ACC Title Game Preview

Here we go again. It’s VT and BC for all the ACC marbles. This is the rematch most, if not all, Tech fans wanted, and now they’ve got it. I would say ‘be careful what you wish for’, but it’s a bit too late for that. Here we go, Hokies. Saturday preview, ACC Championship style:

Boston College (10-2, 6-2 ACC)

Offense: The BC attack is still led by Matt Ryan, who is still a great college quarterback, but the bloom is off the rose to some degree since BC lost twice to start November. Once BC got a couple losses on its resume, people started to notice that Ryan’s efficiency numbers were still lingering in the mid 40s nationally. Right now, Ryan sits at 52^nd in the country, which is still startling low for a QB being talked up as such a high round draft choice. The myth that a QB should be judged by wins alone is one of the great fallacies of football analysis, and Ryan gets a pass for his shortcomings as long as BC wins. Nevertheless, all it took was 5 great minutes from Ryan and the offense to offset 55 great ones from the VA Tech defense to get a win in Blacksburg.

Rushing isn’t the focus of the BC attack, but even when it is, the Eagles haven’t been great. I find it hard to believe that Andre Callender’s 902 rushing yards rank him 4^th in the ACC, but it’s a fact, and Callender hasn’t been good at all down the stretch, gaining just 278 yards in the last 5 games. Where Callender, and the entire BC offense has been excellent is in finding RBs out of the backfield. The senior has 43 catches in just the last 6 games, for 438 yards. That’s big time performance out of the backfield. Big time.

Speaking of receiving, the attack obviously doesn’t stop with Callender. Junior Brandon Robinson caught 50 balls in the season’s first 11 games, for 14.4 yards per catch, but didn’t play in the finale against Miami and can’t be counted on this weekend either. Sophomore Ryan Gunnell was outstanding in his stead, catching 9 balls for 135 yards. Gunnell was surprisingly good all year, with 54 catches for 749 yards, but looked especially deadly filling in for Robinson. Junior TE Ryan Purvis has 50 catches for 521 yards. Senior WR Kevin Challenger has 40 catches for 500 yards. The scariest thing about this BC attack is not Matt Ryan. I repeat: it’s not Matt Ryan. The scariest thing is the massive allotment of capable receivers, and the fact that any can step up on any day.

Up front, BC probably has best offensive line in the league. Tops in the league in protecting its QB, the BC line gives up 1.50 sacks a game, and that’s a pretty good number considering how much the Eagles throw the football. Ryan isn’t winning any elusiveness contests either, so you’ve got to give this line credit. Fans of the hogmollies have to be licking their chops getting ready to watch the VT front 7 do battle with this line.

Defense: Brandon Ore had some nice success against the BC defense in Round One, rushing for 97 yards on 20 carries, and Sean Glennon wasn’t bad either, throwing for 149 yards on 15 of 25 passing. Of course, Tech only put up 10 points, but efficiency and yardage wasn’t a huge problem.

The BC rush D is tops in the ACC and 2^nd in the nation, giving up just 66 yards per game. There aren’t a ton of dynamic offenses on the BC schedule, but that’s a great number up front. Up front, LB Alex Albright has 8 solo sacks and senior DL Nick Larkin has 4 solo sacks. These guys aren’t just stout against the run, they’re beasts at rushing the passer, and can hurt you in any number of ways. Jolonn Dunbar and Mark Herzlich are the 2^nd and 3^rd top tacklers on the team, and both had double digit tackle numbers in Blacksburg. They must be stopped. Period. They must be stopped.

DB Jamie Silva has 254 career tackles and 11 picks, including 110 this year. Silva made 15 solo tackles against FSU, which probably meant he wasn’t covering receivers well enough. He’s not a top flight cover corner, but when he has a chance to make a tackle, he doesn’t miss often. BC’s overall pass numbers aren’t great, but they’re a bit misleading. When you’re almost always ahead, teams throw on you. However, this is a secondary that ranks 106^th in the nation in pass defense, a brutal number especially in a league lacking many truly top-flight QBs. In fact, the best QB in the league plays on their own team. VT has to win this game through the air.

Special Teams: The biggest special teams play of the year in perhaps the entire ACC came in Round One when BC recovered an onside kick and went on to win the game. Kicker Steve Aponavicius hasn’t had a chance to kick a ton of field goals, but he’s been decent when given the chance, making 10 of 15. Not great, but decent. He probably won’t lose the game for BC. Punter Johnny Ayers booted for a 45 yard average on 9 punts in Blacksburg, and helped keep the Hokies far away from the goal.

Prediction: Virginia Tech gave away one game this year to BC. It won’t happen again. The Hokies have been wanting this rematch since October, and they’ve got it. VT is a 6 or so point favorite, and justifiably so. Matt Ryan hasn’t gotten any better since Blacksburg, and Sean Glennon has gotten much, much better. BC will dare Glennon to beat them, and guess what: he will. Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 17.

SEC Power Rankings: Final

Before we could blink, Nutt was out, and Nutt was in. The embattled Hogs coach has a new zipcode in Athens, and his hot seat in Fayetteville is still warm. How would the teams stack up on a neutral field tomorrow? Check it:

1. Georgia – The Bulldogs sit at 10-2, on the cusp of the national title contest, and cozily at home in front of the televisions for the SEC championship game. Obviously, every true Dawg would love a shot at the conference title, but with all the unpredictability in the nation this year, there has to be just a small part of every Georgia heart that doesn’t mind the view from the sofa. My SEC Coach of the Year ballot goes: 1. Mark Richt, 2. Sylvester Croom, 3. Tommy Tuberville.
2. Auburn – Yep, these are the best Tigers in the league. Auburn barely lost at LSU, and on a neutral field, there’s no reason to think Auburn wouldn’t pull out the win. Everyone freaked out early in the year when the Tigers lost at home to USF and Mississippi State. I’m not saying those were good losses, by any stretch, but looking at the season in hindsight: two September losses to quality bowl teams, two late season losses on the road to top-10 teams. Best 8-4 team in the country.
3. LSU – I’ve been saying it for weeks, but the Tiger defense has been incredibly average dating all the way back to the beginning of October. The repeated national recitation that LSU’s defense is a world beater is a classic example of how the national media picks a perception and then stops doing homework. Since beating Mississippi State 45-0, the Tiger D didn’t hold a single SEC offense below 24 points in regulation. Even in a league this loaded, that’s an impressive record of mediocrity.
4. Florida – Do you have any idea how badly the Gators are going to destroy whoever the Big Ten’s 4^th best team is in whatever Florida bowl they end up in? If Tim Tebow doesn’t win the Heisman, the biggest reason might be Tennessee and Kentucky’s 4 OT classic in Lexington. While Tebow was lighting up the ‘Noles with deadly passes to every part of the field, most of the country couldn’t see it because they were stuck watching UT and UK do battle.
5. Tennessee – The Vols got another “impressive” win that toed the line between lackluster and gutsy. Despite leading by a ton early, Kentucky had the game won at least twice, but couldn’t finish, sending the Vols to the title game. With UT and LSU both coming off multiple OT games with national and conference championships on the line, I’m betting we get some sloppy play in the first half of this weekend’s contest.
6. Kentucky – Only one team could win in Lexington, and somehow it didn’t end up being Kentucky. I get the feeling that 49 out of 50 states of the union were pulling for the ‘Cats, but a blocked FG and some poor red zone play calling by the UK offensive team kept the nation’s new longest heads up losing streak alive. You want the best evidence going that the SEC is much stronger than every other major league? UK finished 10^th in the SEC standings. 10^th place in the Big 12, Big 10, ACC and Pac-10? Nebraska, Northwestern, North Carolina, and Stanford. UK might be an all-star team of those four schools.
7. Arkansas – I gotta give credit to Arkansas for its win at LSU this weekend. Talk about vengeance. After a loss to LSU in the Rock last season cost Arkansas a shot at the national title, the Hawgs circled the wagons and exacted sweet revenge in the Bayou on the back of Darren McFadden and a very good offensive line. How do they celebrate revenge in Fayetteville? Sending the winning coach on the first train out of town, to Athens, Mississippi of all places.
8. South Carolina – Spurrier to LSU? That’s the whisper I keep hearing in SEC circles, and while I’m not totally sold, it would be an almost Shakespearean journey full circle. Nick Saban left LSU to coach in the pros, found himself overmatched and confused, and returned home to an SEC rival. Who might end up in his old digs? Spurrier, who left Florida to coach in the pros, found himself overmatched and confused, and returned home to an SEC rival. It’s rich. I hope it happens.
9. Mississippi State – Whew. The Bulldogs almost blew the whole thing with an awful first three quarters in the Egg Bowl, but somehow got it going just in time to beat Ole Miss and earn a bowl bid. I absolutely loved the display of emotion from Sly Croom after the game. In an era where plenty of coaches use every chance they get to campaign for players to win awards (Houston Nutt) or campaign for the next job (Brian Kelly), Croom almost couldn’t speak, he was so proud of his team’s journey this year. Bravo, Sly.
10. Alabama – What’s left to say about Alabama? 6-6 and probably out of the bowl hunt, ‘Bama had no offense (75^th in yards), no pass defense (9^th in the SEC), a poor QB (99^th in QB rating) and no consistency. Hold the groundbreaking on the Saban statue.
11. Vanderbilt – They brought this on themselves. Vandy had every chance in the world to go bowling this year. But they couldn’t finish against Georgia, couldn’t finish against Kentucky, couldn’t finish against Tennessee, and scheduled the defending ACC champion in late November. They brought this on themselves.
12. Ole Miss – Out with the Orgeron, in with the Nutt. David Cutcliffe had 5 of 6 winning season and got canned. Orgeron, hired as an ace recruiter, was given 3 seasons and 2 recruiting campaigns to build a team. Now comes Houston Nutt, who isn’t exactly known as a great game day schemer. ESPN’s Pat Forde wrote this week that no school in the nation has more ridiculous expectations than the Rebs. I can’t disagree.

C-USA Power Rankings: Final

Two 2,000 yard rushers, three coaching changes and a boat load of points. And that’s just the last two weeks. Final C-USA Power Rankings of the year, on three. Ready, break!

1. UCF – I lean toward the Knights this week. Tulsa impressed me a lot in recent weeks, but didn’t bring it at Rice this weekend, and it’s hard to argue with the league’s best conference record and, perhaps, the league’s best player. Anyone a bit surprised that Vegas has UCF a full 7 point favorite over the Golden Hurricane. I am.
2. Tulsa – Paul Smith led the league in passing yards by almost 1,000, a pretty amazing feat in any league, and even more so in the C-USA where defenses almost seem disappointed if you don’t throw for 300 on them. And yet Tulsa just couldn’t put away Rice, giving up 700 yards and an astounding 38 first downs in 104 plays against the Owls. Will the defense make the trip to Orlando, or just let Smith fend for himself?
3. Houston – Cougar coach Art Briles is headed to Baylor to take on one of D-I’s hardest, least glamorous and most frustrating jobs. He leaves behind a Cougar program with a recent track record of success that should be bowling again this year. What kind of coach will Houston get to take over a program on the rise in prime recruiting territory in a conference where you can make a splash early? I’m betting it’s a good one. Todd Dodge from North Texas? Maybe.
4. ECU – I’ve said it before, but if the Pirates don’t snag a bowl bid, Skip Holtz needs only look at his schedule makers. This is truly a top flight C-USA team/program now. There’s no excuse to miss a bowl game because they’re playing VA Tech, No. Carolina, W. Virginia and NC State in the same season. None. You’re telling me the Pirates can’t get a home and home with a top MAC or Sun Belt school and get it on ESPN2 early in the year?
5. Memphis – The Tigers’ turnaround this year was truly one that could pay huge dividends for this program down the road. I’m not in the locker room, so I don’t know what went on in there, but Memphis rallied to win 6 of its last 7 C-USA games following the tragic death of lineman Taylor Bradford after the team had looked pretty awful, starting 0-3 against FBS teams in the month of September. Now, the Tigers are off to the New Orleans Bowl. Well done, Memphis.
6. Southern Miss – OK, Southern Miss. Who exactly do you think you are? The company line is that Jeff Bower “resigned”, but we’ve heard that one before. The writing is on the wall that FBS’ 4^th longest tenured head coach was forced out following a 5-3/7-5 season that will end when the Golden Eagles play a major Big East school in the PapaJohns.com Bowl on December 22. If, indeed, Bower was shown the door, there better be some serious behind-the-scenes stuff going on, because if not…So. Miss is buried in SEC territory, and now under the shadow of the improving Mississippi State. There’s a difference between ambition and folly. Firing Bower would qualify as the latter.
7. Tulane – You’re Matt Forte. You ran for 2,127 yards and 23 TD. You’re a beast. But the rest of your team is really, really bad, you’re getting no love from the national media, you’re going nowhere for the holidays except Christmas dinner, and there’s a great chance you won’t finish better than 3^rd in the voting for player of the year in your own conference. Maybe you can ask Santa for a passing game.
8. Marshall – From the Better Late Than Never File, Bernard Morris set the league on fire starting Halloween weekend, turning Huntington in to the C-USA’s most formidable homefield advantage over the homestretch. Marshall went 3-0 at home starting with the Rice win. Maybe next year they’ll win a road game.
9. Rice – If somebody has a fire extinguisher, they may want to use it on Chase Clement. Clement threw for 1,658 yards in the last four games, and ran for over 300 yards in those four contests as well. Good grief. 26:9 TD:INT ratio in C-USA play ain’t too bad either. Can Clement make a run in the player of the year race next year? It almost helps that the Rice D is so bad…the more 60 passing attempt games for Clement, the better.
10. UTEP – Second half Miners, meet first half Miners. First half Miners were 4-2, and they beat Tulsa, the league’s most explosive team. The First Half Miners fought until the end of games, and always provided exciting finishes. Isn’t that impressive? They even battled deadly Texas Tech all the way to the end of the game. What’s that, Second Half Miners? You don’t know how these guys turned in to you and your 0-6 second half record? Me neither.
11. SMU – When did Phil Bennett lose this time? The season opening 49-9 drubbing vs. Texas Tech? The brutal 21-7 loss at TCU they really should have won? The official announcement of his firing? Maybe he never did, considering the Ponies were with 10 points in 6 of the 8 C-USA losses. Regardless, it’s the beginning of a new era in Dallas. Here’s betting the coaching pool at Houston is a bit better.
12. UAB – The Blazers outpaced SMU in wins, but the losses were much, much uglier. Where as SMU was within 10 in 75% of the league games, UAB was beaten by 16 or more in 60% of its losses this year. Looking across the border at the Southern Miss coaching staff getting pinkslips, you think the UAB staff expanded office hours?

MAC Power Rankings: Final

This is it for 2007. We’ve got a championship game in the offing, but the regular season is in the can. It’s been a typically wild year; lots of great finishes, explosive offense, and great storylines all over the league. For old time’s sake, how do they stack up this Wednesday morning? Let’s do it:

1. Ball State – I’ve thought all year that the Cardinals are the league’s best team, and I’m sticking to it. BSU has only itself to blame for not earning the trip to Detroit this weekend, and that’ll be true if they don’t go bowling as well. But they really deserve it. This team could definitely give a mid-pack Big East team a run in the International Bowl.
2. Central Michigan – CMU is a 4 point favorite in Detroit this weekend, and I think the Chips will defend their title with a win over Miami. The Chippewas have taken care of business in every MAC game that mattered this year, and I think they’ll earn a touchdown win the title tilt. Dan LeFevour and Antonio Brown are near locks for Player and Freshman of the Year.
3. Miami – You could make a compelling argument for Bowling Green in this spot, based on its 8 wins and better overall MAC record. However, I give the Redhawks a pass of sorts for the Ohio loss. They already had the East wrapped up, and they were playing a road game against a rival playing for a .500 season. Oh yeah, and they beat BGSU by about 200 just four weeks ago. Will Shane Montgomery edge Turner Gill for coach of the year? It’ll be close, believe me.
4. Bowling Green – The Falcons should be bowling somewhere after a dominating win over Toledo with the Peace Pipe on the line. Let me make a quick case for the Falcons making a bowl game: they’ve won their last 4 games, they’re 8-4, they score a ton of points, they have three players that can throw, run and catch TDs, and after speaking to a few fans at the Battle for I-95, I have a gut feeling they’ll travel.
5. Buffalo – I’m sticking with the Bulls in the upper division even though they undeniably lost a step late in the year. Still, 5-7 is a monumental step forward for this team, and I’m in the camp thinking that Coach Gill will be around for a couple years, at least. Buffalo will have to go a bowl game before speculation turns to offers, and I’m telling you right now – next year will be that year. Meet your 2008 MAC Champs.
6. Ohio – The Bobcats showed glimmers of what we expected from them all year in a season-ending win over Miami, and a wrap-up streak that saw them win 3 of their last 4, including triumphs over BGSU and the Redhawks. Based on results alone, you’d have to conclude this team had a hard time bringing it’s A game every night: wins over the division’s best two teams, and losses to the worst two.
7. Western Michigan – I’ve been skeptical of WMU all year, but I’ve got to give them big ups for finishing the year strong when some teams would have packed it in and gotten out the golf clubs. The win at Iowa wasn’t over a great team, but it was a Big Ten win, and the Broncos capped the year by pounding Temple. Can Bill Cubit figure out how to get along with QB Tim Hiller in the offseason?
8. Akron – Akron gave CMU a big scare on the penultimate senior day in the Rubber Bowl before succumbing to the top seeded Chips. Jabari Arthur had a pretty monster year statistically, with 86 catches and 1171 yards, but every time I saw this team in person, Arthur never really seemed in the flow of the offense. Still, the numbers don’t lie, and he was the best receiver in the league on numbers alone.
9. Eastern Michigan – Along with Ohio, the Eagles were the most confusing team in the league this year, bringing the big guns to in-state showdowns against WMU and CMU (to win the Michigan MAC), but failing to do much of anything against the rest of the league. In hindsight, it makes a bit of sense – the cross-state showdowns gave EMU a little extra juice, but Jeff Genyk doesn’t have the horses for the entire 12 game grind. Yet.
10. Toledo – If you want to be entertained, the Rockets are your team. No team in the league was as capable of putting up 70 (vs. NIU), giving up 30 (9 times out of 12), winning dramatic last-minute victories (by 1 over ISU and Liberty) or possessing any number of thrilling characteristics. Jalen Parmele is the most underrated player in the league, but at least the Rockets are exciting.
11. Temple – The budding rivalry in this league is Al Golden vs. Turner Gill, and Temple vs. Buffalo. Geographically, the schools are the league’s two outsiders to the East. They’re also the league’s two most recent admits. Throw in to the mix that each coach has his program on the rise and you’ve got a rivalry for the MAC’s eastern seaboard that will last as long as each coach does at his respective school. In this writer’s mind, they’re also the top two picks for the East in 2008.
12. Kent State – Hopefully, KSU coach Doug Martin gave thanks for Eugene Jarvis over Thanksgiving turkey. Jarvis ended the year with a league leading rushing 1669 yards, and a team leading 306 receiving yards. That’s almost 2000 yards on a team where no one else topped 500, and that player, Julian Edelman, missed the season’s second half with injuries. How bad would 3-9 KSU have been without Jarvis?
13. Northern Illinois – Congratulations, Joe Novak. You built a solid program, gave the NIU fans tons of great memories, gave the NFL some great small-college running backs, won a couple division titles. You also made a lot of friends along the way, known around the league press as the consummate nice guy who did things with class and a sense of humor. Well done, sir.

C-USA Preview: Week 13

Some of the nation is done for the year, but not C-USA. All 12 conference teams are in action on the season’s final big weekend, and both divisions are still in question. What’s big, what’s blah, and what’s somewhere in between? Check it:

Game of the Week:
Tulsa at Rice - Win, and you’re in (Part 1). Tulsa needs a win over Todd Graham’s old Rice squad to advance to the conference title game. The ‘Cane deftly avoided a landmine at Army last week, and should come to Houston a bit more focused and sharp than they were in upstate New York. Still, these are the kind of games that tend to surprise folks, what with Rice’s resurgent play of late and the Graham factor to add a little awkwardness to the equation. I think Tulsa returns to its days of squeakin’ it out, getting a late Paul Smith TD to ice the win and the title. Tulsa 38, Rice 30.

UTEP at UCF - Win and you’re in (Part 2). With a victory over UTEP, the Knights won’t just advance to the title game, they’ll host it, with the league’s best overall mark at 9-3 and 7-1. The Knights are currently on a 5 game heater that started with a Week 8 triumph over Tulsa. UTEP has stunk up the joint since failing to capitalize on a fortuitous midseason homestand, but I’ve gotta think the Miners have one big outing left in them. IF UTEP comes out with a chip on its shoulder, this one stays close. That’s a big IF, but I don’t think UCF ices it until late, late in the fourth. UCF 41, UTEP 30.

Best of the Rest:
Tulane at E. Carolina - The Pirates are still shaking their heads over the Marshall loss, which will haunt the bunch well in to the offseason. Still, if ECU gets to 7-5 with a win over Tulane, they’ll be bowling. ECU is one of the best equipped Ds in the league to stop yardage machine Matt Forte, and nobody takes care of the ball better than the Pirates, who lead the league in turnover margin with a whopping +1.27 per game. Forte gets 150, but ECU gets the win and the postseason ticket. ECU 38, Tulane 20.

Ho Hum:
Arkansas State at Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are one of three key C-USA teams sitting on 6-5 and needing a win to really cement the bowl hopes. The Indians are a scrappy Sun Belt squad that caused big problems for good teams early (lost by 8 to Texas, beat Memphis), so So. Miss knows they’re dangerous. Still, the gut says that the Eagles are significantly better and have too much to play for following a topsy turvy regular season. Show me another team that has lost to Rice but beaten ECU. So. Miss 38, Arkansas State 29.


SMU at Memphis - The Tigers are rolling, with four wins in their last five, and only the triumph over UAB not coming down to the wire. Now, they get SMU, who hasn’t won sine September, trying to send off coach Phil Bennett in atypical fashion: with a win. Martin Hankins might be the second half MVP of the C-USA, and he should be in line for another big game here. Still, beware: SMU has a ton of close losses, and the Tigers have a ton of close wins. Eventually, the ball has to bounce the other way. Memphis 34, SMU 30.

Booooooring:
UAB at Marshall - OK, this game probably won’t BE boring, but the implications are. UAB is playing for...uh, pride? The term is loosely defined when applied to a UAB squad that hasn’t been within two TDs in any of its losses since September. The Blazers are trying to claw their way out of last, but no visiting team has won in Huntington since Southern Miss on October 21st. When you look at this UAB squad, do you see “trend buster”? Didn’t think so. Marshall 40, UAB 16.

Texas Southern at Houston - The Cougars will put on a good show in whatever bowl they end up in, assuming they take care of business against Texas Southern this weekend. It shouldn’t be a problem, although it may take until a bowl game for the Cougs to get over the humiliation at Tulsa. I don’t know alot about Texas Southern, but I know this: this is a 0-10 FCS team playing on the road against a relative in-state power. They’ll play with heart, but very little skill. Houston 48, Texas Southern 9.

Preview: Virginia Tech at Virginia

This is it. In-state ACC rivals that took last spring’s basketball crown down to the wire are headed to the finish line neck and neck in football as well. No hype necessary. Who wins the Commonwealth and the division in 2007? Let’s get to it:

Virginia (9-2, 6-1 ACC)

Offense: The Cavs haven’t been very good on offense this year. Their rushing attack ranks 88th nationally, the passing attack is 73rd. On total yards, they rank 99th. Scoring, 80th. However, that being said, the ACC has been a league dominated by defense. Even the 99th ranked total yardage D is only 8th out of 12 in the league, not bad considering there are only 20 worse teams in all of FBS, and 4 of them happen to be in the ACC.
QB Jameel Sewell ranks 5th in the league in total offense and is one of the big reasons the Cavs have been able to squeak out 5 wins by 2 points or less. Sewell has made some big throws down the stretch to put UVA in positions to kick late FGs or run clock at crucial moments. In the two recent games where his arm hasn’t been the story, his legs have been. Sewell ran for 64 yards against Pitt and 66 against UCONN, meaning he’s put up 200 yards of total offense for 7 straight games, dating back to September 22. You can’t buy that kind of consistency at QB, and Sewell deserves serious consideration for ACC MVP - not best player, but most valuable player.
The running game isn’t great, but sophomore back Mikell Simpson has come on in recent weeks. After gaining negative -9 yards in the Cavs’ first 7 games, Simpson has come on in full time duty for 328 yards in the last 4 games, giving UVA an efficient counterpunch to Sewell’s passing. Simpson hasn’t had a big game against a top-flight D of VA Tech’s caliber, so this test should be interesting. Keith Payne hasn’t seen much playing time since Simpson started to heat up, but when he goes, the freshman can gain some yards as well; 69 against Maryland and 70 vs. MTSU. Sewell gets a few carries as well, averaging about 20 yards a game rushing, a decent number considering how harmful the 2.07 sacks per game surrendered by the Cavs hurt his rushing numbers.
As for the rest of the offense, UVA does a nice job of distribution, getting 3 catches per game from three different receivers. Simpson hasn’t been consistent throughout the year, but his astounding 13-catch, 152 yard performance against Maryland has him at the top of the catch list. Jonathan Stupar, a senior TE, has been a rock for Sewell, catching 2 or more passes in every game but one all year. Stupar is one of the best safety valves you’ll see, and look for him to have a huge game as Sewell will likely have to throw a lot of dump passes in the face of VA Tech’s pass rush.
The offensive line has been pretty ho hum, giving up 2.09 sacks a game, 5th in the league. Sewell does have some scramble ability, so that’s not a great number. Like every unit on the squad, this bunch has stepped it up in the fourth quarter. They won’t wear down - VA Tech has to bring heat for 60 minutes.

Defense: Overall, the D has been the strength of the Cavs, by far. 17.45 points allowe per game is good for 10th nationally, and second in the ACC to only your Hokies. The D is also 18th in yards, and the squad as a whole is 39th in turnover margin. You’d be hard pressed to find an overall unit as balanced as UVA. The Cavs are 23rd nationally against the pass and 18th against the run. More than anything, this may be a function of how many close games UVA has been in, so teams rarely go in to strictly run or pass modes.
The front seven is pretty darn good, ranking 13th nationally in sacks, and that all starts with Chris Long, son of legendary linebacker Howie Long. Long is a ferocious talent at DL, with 12 sacks on the year, good for an ACC-leading, 5th national average of 1.09 per game. Unlike some other big sack guys, Long isn’t just a sack artist, either. He has 69 tackles, 19 of which have come in opponents’ backfields. Stop Long, move the ball. It’s that simple.
Long isn’t the only big skill player in the front seven, though. Junior LB Clint Sintim has 67 tackles on the year and 5 solo sacks. Sintim is hard to erase from the the game plan, with 7 or more tackles in each of the last three games. Junior LB Jon Copper is UVA’s leading tackler, with 92 stops, good for 11th in the ACC. Copper has hit the 7 tackle mark in every single game this year, an astounding comment on the junior’s commitment and consistency. He’s also come from the LB spot to get 10 TFL, 3 sacks and 2 picks, and is easily the squad’s most versatile playmaker.

Special Teams: Senior Chris Gould doesn’t have a ton of FGs (1.36 per game, 8th in the league), but he does have at least one in 10 of the 11 games and has hit big kicks in the clutch to help UVA get the close ones. On the year, he’s 15 of 19, a pretty doggone solid number, and if he has a chance to win this game in the final minute, VA Tech is in trouble. Punter Ryan Weigand is outstanding, averaging 45.86 per kick, 4th nationally and best in the league. His giant foot has been a key to UVA’s success in the field position, defensive battles of the ACC.

Prediction: It all comes down to this. In my opinion, if VA Tech wins this game, they’re division champs and probably headed to the title game as a favorite. If they win, this year has a chance to be a success, with 11 and even 12 wins a possibility. If the Hokies lose, however, the season is a disappointment, and will be marked by a “so close” memory.
There are times in life when two smart people can look at the same data and draw vastly different conclusions. It is certainly possible to look at UVA’s season and see a team full of clutch players, to see a team with a huge heart, to see a team that “knows how to win close ones”. And that’s probably all true, to some degree.
But, frankly, I see an average team that has gotten very good bounce, good break, and borderline call possible down the stretch, and is truly 6 points away from not being bowl eligible. VA Tech is 3.5 point favorites, and will cover the spread and then some. VA Tech 30, Virginia 17.

SEC Power Rankings: Week 13

We’ve got teams playing for the BCS, teams playing for bowl eligibility, teams playing for rivalry trophies, and teams playing for pride. It’s the SEC, Week Thirteen. Who would beat who on a neutral field tomorrow? You might be surprised...

1. Georgia - Who would you pick to beat the Bulldogs on a neutral field right now? LSU, and its defense that hasn’t held an SEC team under 24 points since September 22nd? Florida, and its defense, that didn’t hold a single SEC team under 20 points all year? For now, I’m taking the ‘Dawgs, who are just about toe to toe with either of those squads on offense, and have held Okie State, So. Carolina, Ole Miss, Vandy, Auburn and Kentucky to 20 points or less.

2. LSU- The Tigers are going to the national title game, in all likelihood, after this week’s win over Arkansas and a title game triumph over Tennessee. When they get there, I’m a little concerned that folks will expect last year’s Florida Gators and be down on the SEC when they don’t get it. I’m not concerned at all at the close margin of LSU’s recent losses - what alarms me is how quickly their defense seemed to go from world beater good to just plain average once the competition level stepped up.

3. Florida - Congratulations to Tim Tebow, who seems like a pretty good guy despite being a Gator, and will likely walk away with the Heisman Trophy in Manhattan two weeks from now. 20 passing TDs, 20 rushing TDs, SEC competition? That’s definitely Heisman worthy, and will give Urban Meyer’s program a nice little offseason jolt as they prepare to pound the Big Ten’s third or fourth best team in some Florida bowl.

4. Auburn - Here’s another defense that looks elite against the lowlifes but can’t stop SEC’s best teams. Auburn’s D gave up 20 points in a four game span from October 6 to November 3rd - problem is, when they played LSU and Georgia, they couldn’t get off the field. Quick shout out to the Tiger punting game, which leads the nation in net punting average on the heel of Ryan Shoemaker’s toe. The kid averages 44.19 yards a kick, best in the league, and boasts great hang time.

5. Tennessee - The road to Atlanta runs through Kentucky, and Vegas’ early line has the Vols as 2 point underdogs to the home field Wildcats. UT has won four straight and seven of eight, but the wins aren’t quite like LSU’s gutcheck specials. The Vols keep squeaking by teams, and now head on the road for the first time since October 20th when they got pounded at Alabama. Here’s my tip: create some fake news headlines that suggest Fulmer’s job is on the line. That usually makes UT play its best.

6. Kentucky - The ‘Cats couldn’t finish the first half against Georgia, and paid for it by surrendering locker room momentum to the Bulldogs. The defense isn’t raking up nearly enough TFL, ranking 11th in the league, and also hasn’t been able to keep teams out of the end zone, at 11th in the league in scoring. There could be a big difference in how this season is viewed in Wildcat Country based on Saturday’s finale vs. Tennessee.

7. Arkansas - I have to give the Hogs credit for knocking off a hungry Mississippi State squad in the “home” finale this weekend. Even more shocking was how successful Casey Dick was throwing the football. How much would you have bet that Dick would never throw 4 TD against no picks? Well, it happened. Bad news: McFadden will be the first draft pick, but isn’t even the MVP in his own conference.

8. South Carolina - The Gamecocks aren’t getting the respect of Vegas this weekend, as a 2.5 point underdog on their home field against Clemson. With two weeks to prepare on its home turf against the road-weary, hated Tigers, I’ll take the Gamecocks and the points, thank you very much. The league’s best pass D is going to thrash whatever poor squad it gets in the Nobody Cares Bowl.

9. Mississippi State - After the huge win over ‘Bama, Mississippi State couldn’t defend the pass in Little Rock and now needs an Egg Bowl win to go bowling. Jamayel Smith looked like Terrell Owens against the Hogs, and if Anthony Dixon follows suit, this should be an easy win. However, programs like MSU’s are pretty good at finding ways to lose games like this one against Ole Miss. I’m rooting for them. The SEC could use another good team.

10. Alabama - Nick Saban’s contract: $32 million. Season tickets to Crimson Tide football games: $450. Senior Day loss to UL-Monroe: Priceless.

11. Vanderbilt - Vandy!! The sad inability to finish off a potential season-making win at in-state bully Tennessee puts the Commodores in the unenviable position of needing to beat Wake Forest in the finale to get to .500. Will this be a let down game after the big fourth quarter choke? On talent alone, Vandy can and should win. Above the shoulderpads, I’m skeptical.

12. Ole Miss - Here’s your task, Rebs: ruin your rival’s season by beating them on their home turf and keeping them out of bowl consideration. No doubt the Egg Bowl is going to be close, but the Rebel defense is 12th in the league in every single major category; rush D, pass D, total D, scoring D, turnover margin. That’s a bad recipe playing against a team with a hot offense and a mission.