VA Tech BB Preview: NC State & Miami

With two big, big wins in the past week, the Hokies are right on track for an NCAA tournament bid. Currently, Tech sits third in the ACC pyramid. The league will likely land at 7 teams in the dance, so if the Hokies can stay in the conference’s top 5, they’ll be in the dance: period.

Did you see this coming? I didn’t. Can it last? Let’s see:

at NC State (14-7, 3-4 ACC)

The ‘Pack is a team with eerily similar stats to VA Tech this year. Tech’s scoring 69.2 points a game; NC State scores 67.6. Tech gives up 63.3 a night; the Wolfpack give up 66.6. Both teams are 2-4 on the road; Tech is 9-1 at home, NC State is 9-2.

So, why in teams that fill a box score so similarly (at least right now), has one squad dominated the other so much? NC State has won the last five meetings in the series, dating back to a January 19, 2005 one point Tech win. The run got particularly rough last year as the Wolfpack swept three meetings by an average of 14.7 points an outing.

Last year, NC State exerted dominance in the paint, abusing Tech’s undersized squad with an abundance of height. Senior Gavin Grant is back for another swing through the league; the 6-foot-7 old reliable from the Bronx is having a year that mirrors his 2007 ACC campaign. Grant is averaging 14 points and 4.4 boards a year, numbers that are slightly down in correlation with an average of five less minutes a night from last year. As you see so often in players’ senior years, Grant has finally begun to value the basketball, dropping his turnover numbers from 4.2 last year to 2.2 this year. That’s two extra possessions he’s keeping in the Wolfpack’s hands this year. That’s good stuff.

Grant’s been around; J.J. Hickson is the new sheriff in town. NC State’s leading scorer is a young buck, a 6-foot-9 freshman from Marietta, Georgia. By the time Hickson is done in Raleigh, I’m predicting he’s one of those players that seems like he’s been around forever. Most of the ACC is already sick of his 15.0/8.4 average. Hickson is a consistent scorer, with 7 of his last 8 games in the 10-16 point range, and he’s come on strong lately off the glass, snaring 4 straight double-doubles. One thing he obviously hasn’t learned to do yet is take care of the ball as well as Grant. Hickson turns the ball over almost 3 times a game. Tech will be forced to double him in the post early and often. Yep, the Hokies will be committing a lot of their defensive resources to double downs on Hickson. So who’s the real difference maker in the game?

My money’s on Courtney Fells, NC State’s third-leading scorer and most frequent three point threat. With Tech devoting bodies to Hickson, there are going to be kick outs. Fells will be the recipient of his share of dishes, and if he gets hot, it’s probably game over for the Hokies. When Fells runs cold, as he did against Duke (0-for-5 FG), and Michigan State (0-for-7 FG), the Wolfpack get bombed. When he’s hot, as he has been in making 50% of his threes in five of the last six games, this is a dangerous NC State team.

Prediction: It’s really hard for me to pick against a team that has owned the Hokies since 2005. The ‘Pack still has big bodies, and Fells has been red hot lately. Too much Fells; the streak runs to 6. NC State by 8.

Miami (15-6, 2-5 ACC)

Consider yourself warned: this team has moxie. The Hurricanes battled Duke like few teams have this year, trading punch for metaphorical punch, and doling out more than a few real ones as well before succumbing late down the stretch, 88-73.

Junior Jack McClinton is the rock ‘em-sock ‘em heart and soul of this Canes squad. McClinton is a feisty one; he can score in bunches, make great passes, commit egregious turnovers, and all the rest. He’s like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get – except heart, and a lot of it.

Sophomore James Dews is a relative newbie in the McClinton mode who’s earned his keep this year, along with a bunch more playing time, by being a solid three-point option. Dews has raised his percentage beyond the arc from 27.6% to 41.7% - a dramatic and necessary improvement. Dews mailed in 20 against Georgia Tech and 17 at Providence – two of the ‘Canes biggest wins of the season.

Fifth year senior Anthony King is the inside threat most likely to bust the Hokies’ chops. In his fifth year in a ‘Canes outfit, King is about as steady as big men get. For four straight years, King has been a rock, averaging between 6 and 9 points a game and 7 and 9 boards. This year – he’s improved in a couple corollary categories. Never before has King boasted an assist:turnover ratio higher than .68; this year, it’s 1.24. To make the problem worse, you can’t just hammer away on King if he’s going off. His 73% FT percentage is great by big man standards; if one player on the ‘Canes is likely to have a break out game and break the Hokies’ back, it’s this guy.

Prediction: I don’t see Tech losing this game at home. Miami’s success has been come on its home court in south Florida, and they haven’t much north of Interstate 4. There’s too much at stake as Tech tries to hold serve this weekend; Vassallo goes for 18, and it’s Hokies by 11.

VA Tech BB Preview: Duke & Boston College

As Tech’s trip toward postseason play marches on, it’s back to Cassell on Thursday for the annual anticipated throwdown with ACC bully, Duke. Just 45 hours later, the Hokies will be in Chestnut Hill tipping off against Boston College. What’s in store for January’s fourth week? Let’s check it out.

DUKE (15-1, 3-0 ACC)

Biggest Win: Marquette, 77-73

Worst Loss: vs. Pitt, 65-64

The Devils are good. Anyone surprised by this information probably hasn’t watched a college basketball game in my lifetime, and certainly hasn’t been following the ACC, which Duke has dominated the last 15 years, earning numerous ACC titles and final four appearances.

This year’s edition of team Krzyzewski is a classic Durham outfit, scoring points in bunches (85.0 ppg, 9^th nationally), preventing other teams from scoring (3^rd nationally in victory margin, and just generally blowing everyone out that gets in their way (8 wins by 22 points or more).

DeMarcus Nelson leads the Devils in scoring (14.3), completing a career that’s steadily developed from a 6.2 ppg/4.5 rpg season as a freshman in 2004. The biggest change in Nelson’s numbers this year is a 50% jump in his assist-to-turnover ratio. Assists are up from 2.0 to 2.9, turnovers are down from 2.5 to 2.3. It’s hard to say exactly how to stop Nelson, since his greatest strength is his consistency. In 10 battles this year, Nelson’s been right between 9 and 16 points. In 12 games this season, he’s been between 5 and 8 rebounds. Nelson is hard to stop, and despite logging 32 minutes a game, he keeps himself in the game by not fouling much. However, despite being Duke’s leading scorer, he’s not a stone cold killer in the mold of JJ Redick or some of Coach K’s other great gunslingers. Keep him right around his average of 14, and Tech can win.

In what some suggested would be a rebuilding year for the Devils, the rebuilding might be starting with Kyle Singler. Singler is a long, 6-foot-8 freshman out of the great northwest that’s roaring out of the gates with a 13 point, 6 rebound a game average. Most impressive in these early stages of his career, Singler has already shown a proclivity for showing up in big games. The frosh dropped in 25 points against Marquette, 13 on just 7 shots against Wisconsin, and 17 against Pitt and Clemson. That’s an 18-per game average in what have probably been Duke’s biggest four games of the year. If he blows up, the Hokies have no chance to win. It’s that simple.

Duke’s other weapons are mostly young, too. Jon Scheyer, a sophomore from Chicago’s north shore, has come on strong lately, raising his average to 11 points a game with 8 double-figure outings in his last 10 games. Sophie Gerald Henderson has doubled his output to 13 a night off last year’s average of 6.8. Junior Greg Paulus has seen minutes, points, boards and assists all drop this year; is he being rested for the stretch drive? Time will tell.

Prediction: I know, I know: we’ve heard it all before – VA Tech can’t hang with Duke, they’re outmatched physically. The Hokies have battled Duke as well as anyone the last couple years, but I think they’re facing too high a mountain this time. Without Jeff Allen to match up on some of the Devils’ bigger bodies, VA Tech faces an even tougher battle. Duke by 13.

BOSTON COLLEGE (12-5, 3-1 ACC)

Biggest Win: Miami (Fl.), 76-66

Worst Loss: Robert Morris, 57-51

The BC Eagles have 12 wins in 17 games, but have benefited from one of the coziest early season schedules in the country. BC hasn’t had to leave Chestnut Hill for 5 games, and only three of those have been true road battles. BC’s list of early season victims isn’t impressive, save Maryland, the tally includes New Hampshire, Fl. Atlantic, Mercer, Rhode Island, Northeastern, Sacred Heart and Longwood. This is not a battle-tested 12-win team, and the seams are going to start to show during the ACC stretch drive.

Gone is Jared Dudley, but Tyrese Rice has picked up a big of his slack, logging 19.5 points and a clutch 5.3 assists an outing so far this season. Rice is quick, with fast hands (1.6 steals/game) and an ability to flat go off from the free throw line (11 straight FTs made in two games this year). You can’t foul him; he’s hard to guard. The absence of Allen in the middle will make his dribble drive penetration even more problematic.

The man literally filling Dudley’s spot has been Shamari Spears, a sophomore who’s burst in to the starting lineup by showing an aggressiveness and hunger for the basketball. Spears averages over 7 boards a night. Spears has a tendency to disappear in BC losses. Spears only contributed 6 against Kansas, 8 against Robert Morris and 8 against UMASS. When he’s not scoring and getting some putbacks, or worse, taking himself out of the game via foul trouble, the Eagles really struggle. I truly believe that the key to winning tough basketball games is stopping an opponent’s second and third options, not their first.

In that spirit, freshman Corey Raji can’t be allowed to go off either. Raji has been inconsistent as they come, pouring in 24 and 17 against Providence and Maryland but contributing less than 5 points several times. Looking down the BC roster, you see its full of two things: young players, and wide, stout bodies. Rakim Sanders, a 6-foot-5 freshman scores 12.3 points a game. Biko Paris is another freshman, but his specialty is dishing the ball, earning 2.5 assists a game in limited minutes. Sophomore Tyler Roche scores 5 points a game, and could do some damage this weekend.

Prediction: If this game were at Cassell, I’d be picking the Hokies. I don’t think the Eagles have road legs, but the scheduling committee has given VA Tech an extremely stout test. Less than two days after playing Duke, the Hokies have to take a fairly long road trip against a team that basically sleeps at their home arena. Blame the schedule makers. BC by 9.

Orange Bowl Preview

FEDEX ORANGE BOWL – Jan. 3rd, 8:00 EST

Virginia Tech vs. Kansas –

10-2, and champions of the ACC: just like I predicted to start the year. One thing I never would have predicted would be that the Hokies would get the Kansas Jayhawks, third place team in the Big 12, as a reward for their conference championship. Surely the ACC champs ought to beat the Big 12’s third best, right? Let’s check it out:

Kansas (11-1, 7-1 Big 12)

Offense: The Jayhawks roared out of the gates in September on the strength of an offense that scored so quickly, and so often, that it immediately forced opponents to alter their game plans just to keep up. KU dropped an average of 53.5 ppg on its first four opponents and then, after a 30-point ‘off-week’ against K-State, dropped another 58 on Baylor. When KU met Mizzou in Kansas City on Thanksgiving weekend, QBs Todd Reesing and Chase Daniel were at a crossroads. The two had put up similar numbers, with similar records and similar accompanying shock around their success. Whichever QB had the better game was going to be a Heisman finalist, and Daniel dominated the game, earning his ticket to New York. But Reesing’s year was equally spectacular. The junior went 256-409 this year, with an unbelievable 32:6 TD:INT ratio. Three of the picks came against K-State, and other than that, the numbers are even gaudier, 29:3. Will Reesing be an NFL QB? Heck no, but he’s been in a zone this year, reaching rare air with his accuracy and decision making. Reesing and KU haven’t been tested like they will be against VA Tech, and rattling Reesing is the best way to ruin KU’s offense. In the ‘Hawks’ two closest calls of the year, a tight win at K-State and the Mizzou loss, Reesing threw 5 of his 6 picks.

The rushing game was good for 197 ypg, 27^th nationally, and Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp are both solid backs, top ten in the Big 12. McAnderson, the senior, topped the century mark 5 times, with a mighty three game stretch of 434 yards and 8 TDs against A&M, Nebraska and Oklahoma State. Sharp, the sophomore, was the counter punch, going for 788 yards and 7 scores on the year; but Sharp was absent against Kansas, a fact that has been lost on the post-game commentary of that contest.

Junior WR Dexton Fields had a breakout year, with 56 catches for 733 yards and 6 scores. Unlike Reesing, Fields was at his best in the Jayhawks’ closest battles, catching a combined 14 balls for 194 yards against K-State and Mizzou. Marcus Henry is the home run threat in the passing game, turning 52 catches in to 994 yards and 9 scores. Henry is a big-time, grand slam kind of guy, and he benefits from Fields’ success over the middle. Fields will try to draw the safeties in, and Henry will find the deep seams.

KU’s offensive line was actually fairly mediocre this year, considering how good the offense was. The line was 47^th in the nation in sacks surrendered. I haven’t heard yet officially if Anthony Collins, the 310-lb. left tackle will play against the Hokies, but he’s probably the best offensive lineman. Collins dinged a leg against Iowa State, and he’s chiefly responsible for protecting Reesing’s backside. If Collins is out, the likelihood that Tech can create effective pressure on Reesing, and force the game-changing turnovers, goes way, way up. Center Ryan Cantrell will make the line calls in the no-huddle attack, and RT Cesar Rodriguez is KU’s only senior starting lineman.

Defense

Of all the reasons KU went 11-1 this year, a +1.58 turnover margin, tops in the entire nation, was the biggest. The Jayhawks were amazing at creating possession-changing plays and preventing them on the offensive end of the football. The defense deserves tons of credit for that, obviously, and the superstar of the KU defense is Aqib Talib. You’ve heard the name before, but remember it – I haven’t seen a lot of defensive players on Talib’s level when it comes to anticipation and vision. Talib only had 4 picks this year, and only one since October 6^th. He’s such a deadly pass picker, though, that he really won’t get much action, and Tech would be wise to throw away from him whenever possible. Talib also had 61 tackles and 8 receptions this year. He’s a great college football player, as good as KU has anywhere on the field.

The Jayhawks’ three leading tacklers are a trio of junior LBs that all finished in the top 14 in the Big 12 in dragging down opponents. Joe Mortensen, James Holt and Mike Rivera all nabbed 7+ tackles per outing, and comprise a linebacking corps that isn’t going to miss a lot of tackles, and is going to have the freedom to chase opposing backs all over the shop. Each of the backers is capable of taking over a game on the defensive end. In three of KU’s closest contests, against Mizzou, Colorado and Kansas State, Mortensen had 11+ tackles in each. And against the Buffaloes, in what has to be one of the toughest outings of any defensive player this year, Holt logged 12 solo tackles in a 19-14 slugfest. Running right at these guys probably isn’t the best strategy for the Hokies. I like a steady diet of counter and misdirection plays that capitalize on KU’s desire to pursue ball carriers with a vengeance.

KU’s weakness on defense is its front four, which finished 80^th nationally in sacks despite the fact that teams were passing against the Jayhawks constantly because of the huge leads they ran up. However, the defense was 4^th nationally in scoring allowed, and 14^th in yards, so even this d-line isn’t weak. Just vulnerable. Sophomore stud DL Maxwell Onyegbule was the sack leader, but only got one in Big 12 play. The real star of the line is James McClinton, a second-team All-American who made 11 TFL and 38 total tackles this year, and made himself a fixture in opposing backfields all day, every day. Stop McClinton, beat KU. It’s pretty simple. Caleb Blakesley and Russell Brorsen are decent parts of the machine, but McClinton will draw the double teams, and rightfully so.

Special Teams

Kicker Scott Webb probably never dreamed that when he came to KU, he’d score 114 points in a season, good for 2^nd in the Big 12. But that’s what he did in 2007, a tribute to KU’s dynamite offense and his accurate kicking leg. An interesting thing about Webb is that he doesn’t really scatter his misses; he’s either on or off. In two games this year, A&M and Mizzou, Webb went 2 for 7 on FGs. Over the other ten, he went 15 for 17. I’m not going to call the kid a head case, by any means, but Tech should know early if he has it or not. Kansas is awful in the punting game, absolutely awful. Kyle Tucker averaged less than 40 yards a boot this year, and the coverage was bad, too. 111^th in the country in net punting is an awful way to try to win football games. The seams will start to show against the Hokies, when KU has to punt a little more than it likes.

Prediction

The Jayhawks aren’t the dog a lot of folks on the eastern seaboard think they are. This is a team that was much more in it against Mizzou than a lot of people realized that didn’t watch the contest, and any time a team scores 43 or more points in 8 of 12 games, I’m going to give their offense some credit.

However, I like Tech’s 8^th ranked sack unit and 2^nd ranked scoring D to be able to do some things KU hasn’t seen, better than the Jayhawks expect. Pressure leads to Reesing errors, and as we’ve established, Reesing errors lead to KU struggles. Conversely, the one thing KU doesn’t do very well, rush the passer, is something teams have to do to beat Tech. Reesing, Fields and Talib will each make a couple plays that leave Hokie fans shaking their heads, but VA Tech will get a big special teams play and take control of the game in the third quarter, bringing the Orange Bowl trophy for a year’s residence in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech 27, Kansas 17.

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl Preview

KONICA MINOLTA GATOR BOWL – Jan. 1^st, 1:00 EST

Virginia vs. Texas Tech –

In the ACC’s only New Year’s Day contest, the Hokie-vanquished Cavaliers draw explosive Texas Tech as a reward for their surprising 9-3 campaign. As has been well-documented in my column space this year, I’m from the camp that thinks this UVA was at least as much lucky as good, benefiting from 5 wins of 2 points or less. But they obviously had some mojo working for them, taking only two losses since the opening beating at Wyoming. Texas Tech is a tough team to get a bead on, one capable of greatness (beating Oklahoma, 34-27) and utter mediocrity (losses to Colorado and Oklahoma State).

I’m excited about this game. There’s almost no way this game will not be exciting. On one hand, we’ve got UVA, who played to the wire time after time in 2007, and on the other, there’s Texas Tech, one of the nation’s most perpetually thrilling teams, a squad that will always keep both teams in the game. One of the great mysteries of the past season is why Graham Harrell never got the media love that Hawaii’s Colt Brennan did. Harrell led the nation in total offense, and the Red Raider passing attack was tops nationally as well. The QBs were almost identically matched in TDs and efficiency; obviously, Harrell’s competition was much tougher. One thing Harrell had that Brennan didn’t was Michael Crabtree – the freshman sensation topped the nation in receiving TDs and yards per game, and became the first freshman ever to win the Biletnikoff Award, for the nation’s top receiver. Crabtree is an unbelievable talent, and to say UVA will have its hands full with him is the understatement of the year.

Tech’s dink-and-dunk, quick strike passing attack should be able to neutralize the formidable UVA pass rush, which is led by future top-10 pick Chris Long. Long was 3^rd in the nation in sacks this year, but he won’t have near the time he’s used to against the Raiders. Cavalier defenders Clint Sintim and Jeffrey Fitzgerald are also in the top 12 in ACC sackmeisters, but this key component of the UVA defensive approach just won’t be in play against Tech. The Raiders will throw quickly, and pick on mismatches in the UVA secondary. Unfortunately, the Cavs weren’t a great outfit in the back four – middle of the ACC pack defending the pass, despite habitually clamping down in the red zone.

UVA just isn’t cut out to hang with Texas Tech in this game. This is a team just a few points away from being .500, facing an offense that will render completely useless its best defensive asset. A big win for the Big 12 on Jan One. Texas Tech 38, UVA 20.

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL – Dec. 31st, 7:30 EST

Clemson vs. Auburn –

As far as New Year’s eve fare goes, this is a great one, matching up one of the ACC’s classic underachievers against one of the SEC’s chronic overachievers. Without a lot of high-profile talent, at least as far as the SEC goes, Auburn did wonders this year, notching wins over Florida and Alabama, and nearly, so nearly beating soon-to-be national champion LSU. On the other side of the coin, Clemson is the Alabama of the ACC, gagging in big games and looking like giant killers against the sisters of the poor. The Tigers went 9-3 this year, with impressive wins over Wake, South Carolina and Florida State; but against teams with nasty run Ds, they got creamed, taking three on the chin from BC and the two Techs.

There’s an inherent rivalry between the ACC and SEC, with so much mutual turf, and in Clemson, the ACC might have sent the wrong knife to a gun fight. The Tigers have big time weapons in rushers James Davis (83 ypg) and CJ Spiller (54 ypg), and receiver Aaron Kelly (tops in the ACC in ypg). Kelly and junior WR Tyler Grisham were both top five in the league in catches, and if Cullen Harper has time to get them the ball, they’ll do damage. On the other side of the ball, Auburn is a conundrum on defense. They’re awful at getting to QBs, with rankings in the 90s in sacks and TFL. But the pass D is outstanding, at 6^th in the country and 2^nd in the SEC. What’s the explanation? Some great, underappreciated corners, starting with senior Patrick Lee (51 tackles, 4 INT) and sophomore Jerraud Powers (57 tackles, 4 INT). Short of the VA Tech secondary, Auburn’s will probably be the best Clemson has faced this year. Harper, who tossed 27 TDs against just 6 picks this year, will be hard pressed to survive without throwing an INT or two. Despite all the weaponry boasted by Clemson, however, their history of collapsing in big games doesn’t excited me if I’m a South Carolinian.

On the offensive side of the ball, Auburn has the least yards per game of any 8+ win team in the nation, at just 327 ypg. As Ben Tate peaked in mid-season, the Auburn rush game carried the offense to wins at Arkansas and Florida. But Tate lost steam down the stretch, as did freshman Mario Fannin. Brandon Cox has caught a lot of heat from Auburn fans over the years, some deserved, but his lockdown, clutch as clutch can be performances against Florida and LSU this year signified that he’s really turned the corner, finally, to be a very solid SEC QB.

Cox will have a big game in his Auburn swan song, and the boys from Auburn win the battle of the Tigers in surprisingly easy fashion. Auburn 24, Clemson 10.

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl

GAYLORD HOTELS MUSIC CITY BOWL – Dec. 31st, 4:00 EST

Kentucky vs. Florida State –

One of the more intriguing bowl matchups went down the toilet when thirty-some Seminole players decided to take a little extra help on exams. Most Vegas books took this game off the live-wagering section a long time ago, with Kentucky as a 3 point favorite or so. Who knows what the line would be now, but it’s almost impossible to imagine that Florida State’s second teamers can hang with the Wildcats, a team that beat LSU and would probably win against FSU’s best.

So, we don’t really know what to expect in this one. We know Kentucky, so let’s talk about the ‘Cats. Andre Woodson is getting lots of buzz as a top ten draft pick in this year’s draft, and he gamely led the ‘Cats offense to the 14^th best scoring output in the nation. Woodson trailed only Heisman-winner Tim Tebow in the SEC in total offense and pass efficiency, and can certainly light up a scoreboard with the best of them. Woodson wasn’t the whole story in Lexington, though; Rafael Little was 3^rd in the SEC in rushing yards and 14^th in receiving yards. Woodson was as good as anyone in the world this season at spreading the ball around to multiple targets. Five, count ‘em five Wildcat receivers were in the top 13 in the SEC in catches. The list includes Keenan Burton, Steve Johnson, Jacob Tamme, Dicky Lyons and Little – all with 4+ catches per game, all great targets to stretch and confuse a defense.

On defense, Jeremy Jarmon is on track to be the next great SEC pass rusher. Jarmon posted 8 sacks this year, and 58 total tackles; if he keeps improving, he’ll be a great one. Wesley Woodyard, a senior LB, led the SEC in tackles with 10.25 a game, and is your classic chase ‘em all over the field type.

This is a short preview, because I’ve got no idea what to expect from the ‘Noles, or if more suspensions will come down in the next few days. This has been an odd season, but if FSU wins a split squad contest against Kentucky just down the road from UK, that’ll take the cake. Kentucky 38, Florida State 14.

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl

ROADY’S HUMANITARIAN BOWL – Dec. 31st, 2:00 EST

Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State –

Now that Boise State has graduated to bigger and better bowl pastures, the H-Bowl folks have to bring in outsiders to luscious Boise, and they’ve got a contest this year that should compete for the bottom ladder run in bowl attendance and interest. From the ACC, the Ramblin’ Wreck was a walking, talking definition of “mediocrity” this season, finishing 7-5 with a 4-4 conference mark. Tech’s only win over a winning team came in late September, when it somehow beat Clemson, 13-3. From the WAC, Fresno State almost nipped Texas A&M early, then rebounded from a 1-2 start to finish 8-4. Of course, a 6-2 WAC record isn’t world-beater stuff, but when the two losses are to Boise State and Hawaii, you clap your hands, tip your hat, and say “nice year.” Whichever one of these teams wins in Boise will finish on an up note and feel good; the loser will realize how average their season truly was.

The Bulldogs of FSU have a kick return specialist with a name as flashy as his game. A.J. Jefferson, the nation’s leading kickoff return man, averaged 35+ yards per return this year, and ripped off TDs in back to back contests against Utah State and Hawaii. Jefferson’s success with the pig won’t make or break Fresno in this game, but it’ll be fun to watch. Fresno State’s defense doesn’t look great when you crunch the numbers on a national scale; 26.92 ppg allowed is nothing to write home about. However, in the offenses-on-crack world of the WAC, that number is good for 3^rd in the league, and illustrates that the Bulldogs should be able to stay competitive, especially against a lukewarm attack like Georgia Tech’s. The D is led by bruising senior LB Marcus Riley, a top 25 tackler nationwide and of the most effective and consistent stoppers in that league. The rush D isn’t top notch, at 88^th nationally, and that means Tech RB Tashard Choice should get his chances. Choice produced one of the more unheralded seasons of the year, rolling up 110 yards or more in 8 games and giving Taylor Bennett one of the best insurance policies in the country. To top it off, Fresno certainly hasn’t seen a pass rush like Tech’s, which was tops in the nation in sacks, led by linemen Vance Walker and Darrell Robertson.

You’ve always got to be careful of teams excited to play taking on teams in a let down game. I can’t imagine that, in the midst of coaching turnover and coming off an ACC divisional title last year, the mood around Atlanta is buzzing over Boise. Fresno gets an upset that defies explanation. Fresno State 28, Georgia Tech 23.

Meineke Car Care Bowl Preview

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL – Dec. 29^th, 1:00 EST

UCONN vs. Wake Forest –

Of all great football stories of 2007, UCONN might have been the most unpredictable. Randy Edsall built a program in Storrs virtually from scratch; ten years ago, before this team was even D-I, bowl games and national rankings weren’t yet a glimmer in Edsall’s eye. However, success didn’t happen over night. Change has been in the water for several years in the great northeast, and this year the tide turned big-time in the form of program changing wins over Louisville, South Florida and Rutgers on three consecutive weekends. Down in Winston-Salem, Wake followed up its ACC championship with a solid, but ho hum 8-4 campaign that would have been much, much better if it had only held off Virginia, to whom the Deacons lost by 1 in early November. Still, Wake boss Jim Grobe is getting offers from every big school that looks for a coach, a tribute to the overhaul he’s done there.

Just like it did to win the title last year, Wake won ugly over and over again this year. How many 8-win teams boast the 97^th best offense in the nation? Virginia Tech, Virginia and Auburn are the only 8-win teams lower on the offensive totem pole, but all three of those squads have defenses in the top 17 nationally; Wake’s isn’t nearly that dominant, ranking just 9^th in the ACC. Yet still, the Deacons have made a living under Grobe by gutting out the close ones, evidenced this year in gut-check wins over Maryland (7, OT), Duke (5) and Florida State (3). In general, Wake isn’t going to beat itself, ranking 16^th nationally in turnover margin this year, but sophomore QB Riley Skinner did show a weakness for the INT, throwing 12 against just 11 TDs this year.

When the Deacons look across the field at UCONN, they’ll see a familiar resemblance. The Huskies have a pretty bad offense (84^th nationally), a great turnover margin (7^th nationally), and won all their big games ugly (Louisville by 4, USF by 7, Temple by 5). These two teams even lost to Virginia by the exact same score, 17-16. Where UCONN is a bit stronger is under center, where Tyler Lorezen boasted a 13:5 TD:INT ratio on the year, and never threw more than 1 pick in a game. Lorenzen can run, too, with a 304 yard total the complimented Andre Dixon (80 ypg) and Donald Brown (68 ypg) throughout the year.

It’s the battle of the uglies in Charlotte, but with a home-state crowd and a lot more experience doing what they do, Wake should win the ball game. UCONN hasn’t won on the road since September 22^nd, and that won’t change now. Wake 20, UCONN 16.

Emerald Bowl Preview

EMERALD BOWL – Dec. 28^th, 8:30 EST

Maryland vs. Oregon State –

The Terps were one of football’s most confounding squads in 2007. Maryland was as competitive as anyone against West Virginia in the season’s first half. A win at Rutgers and a win at home against Georgia Tech had Maryland at 4-2 and looking like a dark horse ACC title contender. Then home losses to UVA and Clemson preceded a painful road loss at North Carolina, putting Maryland at 4-5 and on the cusp of bowl elimination. But a huge win over BC in the home finale gave the Terps just the boost they needed to sneak in to bowl eligibility at 6-6. Over on the left coast, Oregon State got off to a dubious beginning, dropping lopsided battles at Cincinnati and Arizona State. What we didn’t know in September was that those two squads would be two of college football’s biggest surprises this year, and the losses weren’t nearly as bad as they looked at the time. Since September, the Beavers are a sparkling 6-1, with only a loss at USC against their record.

OSU is second to only Boston College nationally in stopping the run, surrendering just 74.92 yards a game in the pass-happy Pac 10. But the pass D is pretty solid, too, ranking 31^st nationwide in efficiency D, despite giving up quite a few yards. The Beaver defense is led by Derrick Doggett, who averaged 7+ tackles a game and finished 11^th in the Pac-10 in TFL. As good as the rush D was, the pass rush was even better. OSU was 3^rd in the country in sacks and 6^th in TFL; you don’t find a lot of teams that boast 3 of its league’s top 8 sackers, but the Beavers had Victor Butler, Slade Norris and Dorian Smith all in the Pac-10’s top ranks this year. All this is really bad news for the Terps, who were absolutely terrible at protecting its backfield this year. Maryland ranked 107^th nationally in sacks allowed, giving up a brutal 3.17 QB takedowns a game. With OSU bringing the heat, can Chris Turner (3^rd in the ACC in efficiency) avoid the rush and make throws down field? Not likely, as Turner isn’t exactly the model of escapability; with 39 rushes for -14 yards, Turner isn’t the type of QB to beat the Beaver D. To top it off, Keon Lattimore, who started the year with 4 100-yard games in his first five tries, disappeared at midseason, and hasn’t stopped the century mark since September. Leon Bell has been solid in his stead (7^th in ACC rushing yards), but the Terps just don’t have the horses to outrun OSU, especially in San Francisco, where the Beavers will get a virtual home game. Oregon State 35, Maryland 17.

Champs Sports Bowl Preview & Prediction

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL – Dec. 28^th, 5:00 EST

Boston College vs. Michigan State –

Despite boasting different records, the Eagles and Spartans followed similar trajectories in 2007. MSU burst out of the gates 4-0, making the Mark Dantonio hire look like one of the most astute personnel moves of the offseason. But then came OT losses at Northwestern and Iowa and heartbreakers to Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State in a 6 game span. The second-half swoon ended with clutch wins over Purdue and Penn State, but everything State did so well in the first half of the year (rush the passer, run the football) began tailing off and never fully recovered. In New England, BC was ranked #2 in the land, and people were touting Matt Ryan as the next great NFL QB, despite his weak pass efficiency rating, mired in the 40s nationally most of the year. Then BC came to Blacksburg, and even though the Eagles escaped with a 14-10 win, they didn’t catch their collective breath until three weeks later, after two devastating losses to Florida State and Maryland. And even though Tech didn’t get the win at home, it finished the job in December that it started in October, rolling to the ACC crown and giving BC its third loss.

Even though this contest hasn’t been talked about much nationally, it strikes me as one of the most intriguing bowl matchups of the season. Each team’s strength plays at the other squad’s strength. Michigan State started the year with the fiercest pass rush in the nation, and even though they’ve since dropped to 12^th nationally in sacks, but getting in to opponents’ backfields is still a priority and skill for the Spartan D. On the other side, BC’s front line was the ACC’s best at protecting its QB this year, allowing 1.46 sacks a game, tops in the conference. Flip the units, and you’ve got BC’s top-ranked national rush D taking on the MSU ground game, which was 23^rd in the country, and features Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, two of the Big Ten’s top 9 runners.

I picked Michigan State before the bowl season started, but with key components Jonal Saint-Dic, SirDarean Adams and Terry Love left in East Lansing thanks to rules violations, I’ve got to take Boston College. Closer than some think, but a win for the ACC. BC 28, Michigan State 20.

VA Tech BB Preview: Liberty & Wake Forest

After a disappointing loss to Old Dominion, Virginia Tech returns home for tune it up against Liberty before they’ll have to turn it up at Wake in the ACC opener. What does the week have in store? Check it out:

*all team ratings are RPI, courtesy of www.kenpom.com

Liberty (5-5, 0-5 Big South)

Biggest Win: #71 Niagara, 86-81

Worst Loss: at #334 Campbell, 73-70

The Liberty Flames come to Blacksburg Wednesday looking to get over the .500 hump. Liberty started the year roughly, dropping their first three, but then kicked off a 5-1 run with the only loss coming at Kentucky. Former New Mexico coach Ritchie McKay seemed to have the Flames headed in the right direction; then came Saturday’s devastating loss at the Campbell Camels of Buies Creek, North Carolina. So what Flames team will show up at Cassell?

Senior forward Alex McLean has been unquestionably Liberty’s best player this year. McLean, a Bayshore NY native, came on strong last year with averages of 14.5 ppg and 8.9 rpg. He’s picked up right where he left off last year with numbers of 16.7 ppg and 8.6 rpg, and will probably be a no-doubter first team all Big South lock. McLean has been especially good lately, going over 20 points and 9 rebounds in three of the last four games, including a 33-11 night against Longwood.

However, McLean also played a big role in the brutal loss to Campbell. Despite entering the contest with an 11:6 turnover:assist ratio in his last 6 games, McLean committed turnover after turnover against the Camels, neutralizing his big scoring night and giving Campbell tons of free possessions. Another interesting stat is that McLean has only averaged 2 fouls a game in his last seven contests. That’s a very low number for a 6’8” banger and the team’s leading rebounder. Is he afraid to get physical on defense? I haven’t seen Liberty play quite enough to know for sure, but Tech will be well served to attack him on defense.

Elsewhere, the Flames will get plenty of production and tons of minutes from its guard duo of junior Anthony Smith and sophomore B.J. Jenkins. Smith and Jenkins both average 33+ minutes and 12+ points on the year, and rebound pretty well for little guys too, pitching in 4.2 boards per game to the cause. Jenkins is kind of your classic feast or famine type of player. In four games this year, he’s over 16 points. In the other six, he hasn’t topped 9. Jenkins has already thrown up 46 3-balls in just 10 outings, so he’s obviously not afraid to chuck the ball, whether he’s hitting or not. Smith is the more consistent of the two, with between 8 and 17 points in all but one game this year, but he’s a poor distributor by guard standards, with a brutal 1:2 assist:turnover ratio.

Prediction: Liberty has a few weapons, I guess, but in its one chance to hang with a really talented team, the Flames fizzled. No reason to predict otherwise, especially since Seth Greenberg ought to have his team’s attention. Tech by 14.

At Wake Forest (6-3, 0-0 ACC)

Biggest Win: #193 Bucknell, 72-56

Worst Loss: at #163 Charlotte, 63-59

Here’s what I don’t get about the RPI: The Deacons have lost to all three teams they’ve played above 163, and beaten all six teams they’ve played below 193. So what rating are they? 127. Ugh. But I digress…

The true big loss of the year happened in the offseason, as Wake coach Skip Prosser died suddenly, leaving the Deacons in the hands of longtime assistant and friend Dino Gaudio. We’ll know a lot more about this squad after Wednesday’s informative clash with USF, but for now, this team is a near blank-slate, with nary an interesting win or loss to speak of.

Wake’s best player looks to be freshman James Johnson. Johnson is a 6-foot-8, 200 lb. sinewy beanpole from Cheyenne, Wyoming, but he’s looked right at home on Tobacco Road so far, scoring a bit (12.4 ppg) and rebounding a lot (9.7 rpg). Throw in at least one block in every game but one, 2 steals a game, 5 straight 11 rebound games, and you’re probably looking at an ACC Freshman of the Year frontrunner. At 41.5%, Johnson’s field goal percentage reveals he hasn’t yet developed that college shooting touch, so forcing him to take uncomfortable shots is a key for the Tech D. Surrendering a layup is always bad business, but especially so in this case, because when Johnson gets near the hoop, he’s a beast, with 30 offensive rebounds in the last 6 games.

This is a young team all around, with sophomore L.D. Williams second in scoring, junior guard Harvey Hale third, freshman guard Jeff Teague fourth and sophomore guard Ishmael Smith fifth. The team is almost incredibly youthful, with Hale the only upperclassman averaging above 1 point a game. They’re also small; of the top five scorers, only Johnson is above 6’4, and three of them are sub 6’2, 180 lbs. This is a time for Tech’s bruiser mentality to simmer to the surface. Even if Wake tries to use its bench height to stack up with Tech in the middle, subs Jamie Skeen and Chas McFarland will be playing far more than they’re used to doing.

Prediction: Whatever the basketball equivalent of “punching them in the mouth” is, Tech

needs to do it in Winston-Salem. The Hokies have the horses to beat Wake inside, and I

think they will. Tech by 6.

VA Tech BB Preview: Old Dominion

The Hokies take a little bus trip down south on Sunday, trekking to Norfolk to battle Old Dominion. What kind of challenge will the Monarchs present? Let’s take a look:

Old Dominion (5-4, 1-0 CAA)

The Monarchs have been a tale of two teams so far. They’ve looked very solid in all the games they’re supposed to win against other mid-majors, clubbing Toledo by 31, Iona by 11 and MD-Eastern Shore by 25. But ODU has been dominated by the big boys, losing by double digits to Clemson, UNC, Louisville and Georgetown, in a game many had circled as a potential upset. So, all told, ODU is playing like a solid mid-major team; taking care of business with clarity in the games they should win, but unable to matchup athletically with the big boys.

ODU is lead in both scoring and rebounding by Gerald Lee, who hails from Uusikaupunki, Finland. Gesundheit! Lee has been in double figures 6 of 10 times this year, averages 13.1 ppg and 6.6 rpg, and uses his 6-10, 255 lb. frame to create some matchup problems inside. Lee has been a nice surprise for the Monarchs this year after averaging just 4 points an outing last year. In Lee’s best outings of the year, he’s drawn some fouls and done damage from the charity stripe. Tech needs to play standup defense and make him make shots without giving him free throws. Even though he leads the team in rebounding, 6.6 isn’t a ton for a guy that large, so the task of keeping him off the boards certainly isn’t impossible.

Another key player to watch is senior point guard Brandon Johnson. Johnson is a 4-year contributor in the ODU system, and looks to be having his most well-rounded year yet. He’s not a big cat, at 6-1, 180 lbs., but Johnson is dropping in 7.4 pts, 4.9 rebs and 5.2 assists on the year. Johnson can do a little bit of everything, evidenced in his near-miss of a triple double in the Toledo contest (9-10-9). He’s the voice of experience out there for the Monarchs, but he is prone to costly turnovers. Johnson is averaging 4 turnovers a game in 2007, way up from 2.3 last year in similar minutes. He’ll make some great passes and some terrible ones, and he’s probably not quite good enough to beat Tech.

After Lee, Johnson and senior Brian Henderson, ODU has 7 guys averaging between 13 and 19 minutes a game. I’m not sure I’m ready to call this a deep lineup, as the Monarchs are trying to find the right mix early in the year. However, the team is obviously comfortable with a large number of different players on the floor, so if the game happens to turn in to a foul-fest or goes extra time, ODU will probably benefit.

Prediction: This ODU lineup feels like the perfect recipe for a big game from A.D. Vassallo. The Monarchs are within a field goal at half, but Vassallo leads a second half scoring run to give Tech a double digit victory. Tech 69, ODU 59.

ACC Title Game Preview

Here we go again. It’s VT and BC for all the ACC marbles. This is the rematch most, if not all, Tech fans wanted, and now they’ve got it. I would say ‘be careful what you wish for’, but it’s a bit too late for that. Here we go, Hokies. Saturday preview, ACC Championship style:

Boston College (10-2, 6-2 ACC)

Offense: The BC attack is still led by Matt Ryan, who is still a great college quarterback, but the bloom is off the rose to some degree since BC lost twice to start November. Once BC got a couple losses on its resume, people started to notice that Ryan’s efficiency numbers were still lingering in the mid 40s nationally. Right now, Ryan sits at 52^nd in the country, which is still startling low for a QB being talked up as such a high round draft choice. The myth that a QB should be judged by wins alone is one of the great fallacies of football analysis, and Ryan gets a pass for his shortcomings as long as BC wins. Nevertheless, all it took was 5 great minutes from Ryan and the offense to offset 55 great ones from the VA Tech defense to get a win in Blacksburg.

Rushing isn’t the focus of the BC attack, but even when it is, the Eagles haven’t been great. I find it hard to believe that Andre Callender’s 902 rushing yards rank him 4^th in the ACC, but it’s a fact, and Callender hasn’t been good at all down the stretch, gaining just 278 yards in the last 5 games. Where Callender, and the entire BC offense has been excellent is in finding RBs out of the backfield. The senior has 43 catches in just the last 6 games, for 438 yards. That’s big time performance out of the backfield. Big time.

Speaking of receiving, the attack obviously doesn’t stop with Callender. Junior Brandon Robinson caught 50 balls in the season’s first 11 games, for 14.4 yards per catch, but didn’t play in the finale against Miami and can’t be counted on this weekend either. Sophomore Ryan Gunnell was outstanding in his stead, catching 9 balls for 135 yards. Gunnell was surprisingly good all year, with 54 catches for 749 yards, but looked especially deadly filling in for Robinson. Junior TE Ryan Purvis has 50 catches for 521 yards. Senior WR Kevin Challenger has 40 catches for 500 yards. The scariest thing about this BC attack is not Matt Ryan. I repeat: it’s not Matt Ryan. The scariest thing is the massive allotment of capable receivers, and the fact that any can step up on any day.

Up front, BC probably has best offensive line in the league. Tops in the league in protecting its QB, the BC line gives up 1.50 sacks a game, and that’s a pretty good number considering how much the Eagles throw the football. Ryan isn’t winning any elusiveness contests either, so you’ve got to give this line credit. Fans of the hogmollies have to be licking their chops getting ready to watch the VT front 7 do battle with this line.

Defense: Brandon Ore had some nice success against the BC defense in Round One, rushing for 97 yards on 20 carries, and Sean Glennon wasn’t bad either, throwing for 149 yards on 15 of 25 passing. Of course, Tech only put up 10 points, but efficiency and yardage wasn’t a huge problem.

The BC rush D is tops in the ACC and 2^nd in the nation, giving up just 66 yards per game. There aren’t a ton of dynamic offenses on the BC schedule, but that’s a great number up front. Up front, LB Alex Albright has 8 solo sacks and senior DL Nick Larkin has 4 solo sacks. These guys aren’t just stout against the run, they’re beasts at rushing the passer, and can hurt you in any number of ways. Jolonn Dunbar and Mark Herzlich are the 2^nd and 3^rd top tacklers on the team, and both had double digit tackle numbers in Blacksburg. They must be stopped. Period. They must be stopped.

DB Jamie Silva has 254 career tackles and 11 picks, including 110 this year. Silva made 15 solo tackles against FSU, which probably meant he wasn’t covering receivers well enough. He’s not a top flight cover corner, but when he has a chance to make a tackle, he doesn’t miss often. BC’s overall pass numbers aren’t great, but they’re a bit misleading. When you’re almost always ahead, teams throw on you. However, this is a secondary that ranks 106^th in the nation in pass defense, a brutal number especially in a league lacking many truly top-flight QBs. In fact, the best QB in the league plays on their own team. VT has to win this game through the air.

Special Teams: The biggest special teams play of the year in perhaps the entire ACC came in Round One when BC recovered an onside kick and went on to win the game. Kicker Steve Aponavicius hasn’t had a chance to kick a ton of field goals, but he’s been decent when given the chance, making 10 of 15. Not great, but decent. He probably won’t lose the game for BC. Punter Johnny Ayers booted for a 45 yard average on 9 punts in Blacksburg, and helped keep the Hokies far away from the goal.

Prediction: Virginia Tech gave away one game this year to BC. It won’t happen again. The Hokies have been wanting this rematch since October, and they’ve got it. VT is a 6 or so point favorite, and justifiably so. Matt Ryan hasn’t gotten any better since Blacksburg, and Sean Glennon has gotten much, much better. BC will dare Glennon to beat them, and guess what: he will. Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 17.

Preview: Virginia Tech at Virginia

This is it. In-state ACC rivals that took last spring’s basketball crown down to the wire are headed to the finish line neck and neck in football as well. No hype necessary. Who wins the Commonwealth and the division in 2007? Let’s get to it:

Virginia (9-2, 6-1 ACC)

Offense: The Cavs haven’t been very good on offense this year. Their rushing attack ranks 88th nationally, the passing attack is 73rd. On total yards, they rank 99th. Scoring, 80th. However, that being said, the ACC has been a league dominated by defense. Even the 99th ranked total yardage D is only 8th out of 12 in the league, not bad considering there are only 20 worse teams in all of FBS, and 4 of them happen to be in the ACC.
QB Jameel Sewell ranks 5th in the league in total offense and is one of the big reasons the Cavs have been able to squeak out 5 wins by 2 points or less. Sewell has made some big throws down the stretch to put UVA in positions to kick late FGs or run clock at crucial moments. In the two recent games where his arm hasn’t been the story, his legs have been. Sewell ran for 64 yards against Pitt and 66 against UCONN, meaning he’s put up 200 yards of total offense for 7 straight games, dating back to September 22. You can’t buy that kind of consistency at QB, and Sewell deserves serious consideration for ACC MVP - not best player, but most valuable player.
The running game isn’t great, but sophomore back Mikell Simpson has come on in recent weeks. After gaining negative -9 yards in the Cavs’ first 7 games, Simpson has come on in full time duty for 328 yards in the last 4 games, giving UVA an efficient counterpunch to Sewell’s passing. Simpson hasn’t had a big game against a top-flight D of VA Tech’s caliber, so this test should be interesting. Keith Payne hasn’t seen much playing time since Simpson started to heat up, but when he goes, the freshman can gain some yards as well; 69 against Maryland and 70 vs. MTSU. Sewell gets a few carries as well, averaging about 20 yards a game rushing, a decent number considering how harmful the 2.07 sacks per game surrendered by the Cavs hurt his rushing numbers.
As for the rest of the offense, UVA does a nice job of distribution, getting 3 catches per game from three different receivers. Simpson hasn’t been consistent throughout the year, but his astounding 13-catch, 152 yard performance against Maryland has him at the top of the catch list. Jonathan Stupar, a senior TE, has been a rock for Sewell, catching 2 or more passes in every game but one all year. Stupar is one of the best safety valves you’ll see, and look for him to have a huge game as Sewell will likely have to throw a lot of dump passes in the face of VA Tech’s pass rush.
The offensive line has been pretty ho hum, giving up 2.09 sacks a game, 5th in the league. Sewell does have some scramble ability, so that’s not a great number. Like every unit on the squad, this bunch has stepped it up in the fourth quarter. They won’t wear down - VA Tech has to bring heat for 60 minutes.

Defense: Overall, the D has been the strength of the Cavs, by far. 17.45 points allowe per game is good for 10th nationally, and second in the ACC to only your Hokies. The D is also 18th in yards, and the squad as a whole is 39th in turnover margin. You’d be hard pressed to find an overall unit as balanced as UVA. The Cavs are 23rd nationally against the pass and 18th against the run. More than anything, this may be a function of how many close games UVA has been in, so teams rarely go in to strictly run or pass modes.
The front seven is pretty darn good, ranking 13th nationally in sacks, and that all starts with Chris Long, son of legendary linebacker Howie Long. Long is a ferocious talent at DL, with 12 sacks on the year, good for an ACC-leading, 5th national average of 1.09 per game. Unlike some other big sack guys, Long isn’t just a sack artist, either. He has 69 tackles, 19 of which have come in opponents’ backfields. Stop Long, move the ball. It’s that simple.
Long isn’t the only big skill player in the front seven, though. Junior LB Clint Sintim has 67 tackles on the year and 5 solo sacks. Sintim is hard to erase from the the game plan, with 7 or more tackles in each of the last three games. Junior LB Jon Copper is UVA’s leading tackler, with 92 stops, good for 11th in the ACC. Copper has hit the 7 tackle mark in every single game this year, an astounding comment on the junior’s commitment and consistency. He’s also come from the LB spot to get 10 TFL, 3 sacks and 2 picks, and is easily the squad’s most versatile playmaker.

Special Teams: Senior Chris Gould doesn’t have a ton of FGs (1.36 per game, 8th in the league), but he does have at least one in 10 of the 11 games and has hit big kicks in the clutch to help UVA get the close ones. On the year, he’s 15 of 19, a pretty doggone solid number, and if he has a chance to win this game in the final minute, VA Tech is in trouble. Punter Ryan Weigand is outstanding, averaging 45.86 per kick, 4th nationally and best in the league. His giant foot has been a key to UVA’s success in the field position, defensive battles of the ACC.

Prediction: It all comes down to this. In my opinion, if VA Tech wins this game, they’re division champs and probably headed to the title game as a favorite. If they win, this year has a chance to be a success, with 11 and even 12 wins a possibility. If the Hokies lose, however, the season is a disappointment, and will be marked by a “so close” memory.
There are times in life when two smart people can look at the same data and draw vastly different conclusions. It is certainly possible to look at UVA’s season and see a team full of clutch players, to see a team with a huge heart, to see a team that “knows how to win close ones”. And that’s probably all true, to some degree.
But, frankly, I see an average team that has gotten very good bounce, good break, and borderline call possible down the stretch, and is truly 6 points away from not being bowl eligible. VA Tech is 3.5 point favorites, and will cover the spread and then some. VA Tech 30, Virginia 17.

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech Preview

Two Techs enter. One leaves victorious. That’s the guarantee against Georgia Tech, as the Hokies try to forget Boston College. Last Thursday, VA Tech snatched defeat from the jaws of victory; can they turn it around in the Tech Bowl? Let’s take a look at the opponent:

GEORGIA TECH (5-3, 2-3 ACC)

Offense

There aren’t a whole lot of offenses in the nation that rely on one player more than the Yellow Jackets with Tashard Choice. Coming in to this Thursday, GT’s rush offense is 13^th in the nation, and the pass offense is 107^th. Choice is by far the workhorse among the running backs, leading the ACC at 108 yards per game. That’s why the GT attack should be so benign without him. At press time, word on the e-street was that Choice would definitely miss this weekend’s contest. For some reason, I’m not convinced. The senior running back has never missed a game since he transferred to Atlanta from Oklahoma three years ago. Furthermore, despite his apparent absence, Las Vegas still has GT listed as a 2.5 point favorite, which would be almost inconceivable were he not in uniform. Confused? Me too.

Regardless, other offensive weapons will have to step up; as good as Choice has been, the 2-3 ACC record shows that he can’t carry Tech all by himself. One option is career backup, senior RB Rashaun Grant, who has shown promise this year, gaining 231 yards on just 39 carries. Grant is a fifth-year senior that, at the very least, will know where the holes are supposed to be, and shouldn’t make a ton of mental mistakes. He picked up 119 yards on just 11 carries against Army, so the explosiveness seems to be there. Freshmen Jonathan Dwyer and Josh Nesbitt represent the backfield of the future, and both average over 25 yards per game.

Those Tech fans hoping the QB situation would dramatically improve with Reggie Ball moving on to greener pastures have been left wanting in 2008. GT is a startling 113^th nationally in pass efficiency, and despite some good outings from Taylor Bennett, has been crippled offensively by its one way limitations. Bennett’s best game of the year was a 22-34 for 309 outing against Maryland, but even then, the junior couldn’t led his team to victory. Any running back that plays will be a better offensive option than Bennett and the passing game so, as usual, the key for Tech on defense is to swallow the run game and force Bennett to beat them. He can’t.

No GT receiver is in the ACC’s top 12 in receptions or yards per game, so there’s probably not a whole lot to fear here. Sophomore wideout Greg Smith and freshman WR Demaryius Thomas are the 1-2 punch, both averaging between 3-3.2 catches and 40-50 yards per game. The two young guns can hurt the Hokies, but they won’t beat them. Up front, Georgia Tech sports an impressive offensive line that has given Bennett every chance to succeed this year. The Ramblin’ Wreck is a killer across the front five; 4 of the 5 o-line starters began the year with 26 consecutive starts. Even though the unit has been beset my some injuries, including a recent one to right guard Nate McManus, they’re still great. The unit has allowed Bennett to be put on his back just six times in eight games, good for 3^rd best nationally.

Defense

The Wreck defense has kept GT in games even when the offense wasn’t clicking, and is easily the strength of the team. There’s balance here, too; Tech boasts the nation’s 6^th best rushing D and its 34^th best passing D. GT is 1^st in the ACC in both yards allowed and points allowed.

The defensive front four has been just as dominant as Tech’s offensive line. Opposing QBs have gone down in heaps this season, as the Yellow Jackets have sacked signal callers 3.63 times per game this year, good for 4^th nationally. That’s a net gain of 3 sacks per game over their opponents; it’s a big number, and so is their 9.50 TFL average, 2^nd nationally. VT absolutely must keep this swarming crew out of the backfield. Tech has three of the ACC’s top 12 sackmeisters; junior DL Vance Walker, senior LB Philip Wheeler and senior DL Darrell Robertson. All three are deadly in opposing backfields.

If VT can cross the line of scrimmage, there’s hope for success, but Tech boasts playmakers at several positions in the back 7 as well. At DB, freshman Morgan Burnett is looking like a possible future star; with 30 tackles on the year, and 3 picks in GT’s last five games, Burnett is quickly becoming a fixture on opposing coaches’ game plans. Shane Bowen is another young player with talent to burn. The sophomore LB is improving a lot on the job in his first starting year, with 4 TFL and 3 sacks. Senior LB Gary Guyton is a leader on the unit, with 45 tackles and 12 TFL; junior DL Darryl Richard has 4 sacks.

Special Teams

Senior Travis Bell will be an all-ACC kicker after the season is over. Bell has hit 17 of 20 FGs on the year for a smashing 85% accuracy mark. Bell has been doin’ it for four years in Atlanta, and if you throw out his awful sophomore slump, the career numbers are excellent: 44 of 55 on 3-pointers. If Choice is out, punter Durant Brooks will have to be a weapon and, to date, the senior has been up to the task. Brooks’ average is 45.22 yards per kick, good for 7^th nationally.

Pick

The BC loss was such a gut-wrencher that it’ll take a very special week of focus, intensity and practice to exorcise the ghosts from that one. GT’s defense is every bit as solid as the Virginia Tech side, but without as many SportsCenter highlights. If Choice is out, how successful will the VT D be at completely crushing the GT run game so that Bennett has to beat them? It’ll be close either way, but I think Georgia Tech comes in rested off its bye week and secures a win. Yellow Jackets, by a nose. Georgia Tech 20, Virginia Tech 17.

Preview: Virginia Tech at Duke

Forgive me, Hokie fans, for I have sinned. Last week in this space I forecasted a 1-point loss to Clemson, having no idea how inspired the defensive effort would be in the Palmetto State. As we all know, Tech got three returns for TDs; a punt, a kick and a pick, and the Hokies rode that to a blow-away 41-23 win.

So, with Tech now at 2-0 in the ACC and two weeks from a possible title-game preview at Boston College, the temptation would be to look right on past the Duke Blue Devils. Fight the urge. Duke is dangerous, and here’s an up close look.

Duke (1-5, 0-3 ACC)

Offense: You may not be the betting type, but if you are, you know that when a team covers the spread four weeks running, the public isn’t giving them the respect they deserve. Sure, the Dukies aren’t a great team by any stretch, but they’ve climbed out of the ACC cellar talent-wise, and I’ve got them as the 10^th best team in the league right now, and the potential to be even better was evidenced in a close loss to Miami and a shootout loss with Wake Forest.

Thaddeus Lewis commands the offensive attack, and is putting together a season a little bit better than a lot of folks might realize. Lewis, still just a sophomore, is 101 of 191 throwing, with 1491 yards in just 6 games. The schedule hasn’t been easy either, as the numbers aren’t padded with any huge days against cream puffs. Lewis has thrown for 241 yards or more in the last four games, and since the opening clash with UCONN, his TD:INT ratio is a pretty-darn-great 14:4. This kid is poised to be a genuine all-conference performer within the next year or two, and his presence commands VA Tech’s respect and attention on defense.

Lewis is 3^rd in the ACC in total offense and 2^nd in passing efficiency, so clearly the road to stopping Duke’s offense starts with stopping Lewis. The key to harassing Lewis is through pressure, as is so often the case. The Duke line has been terrible, just terrible at protecting Lewis this year, surrendering 3.83 sacks a game (115^th in the nation). The quickest way for a talented young thrower like Lewis to have his growth stunted is to get too many clean shots from opposing defensive ends, but the sacks just keep coming, often at the worst times for Duke drives.

The offensive line woes don’t stop at just poor pass protection, however, as the line has also been wretched at paving holes for a running game. The rush attack is 116^th in the nation at just 66 yards a game. After seeing limited carries in the first three carries, junior Re’Quan Boyette has given Duke a bit of a lift in this department, logging 190 carries in 29 carries in those three contests. Boyette is as much of a bruiser as the Blue Devils have, at 5-foot-10 and 210 lbs.

Lewis’ development has been aided by being able to chuck to experienced WR Eron Riley. Riley is currently the ACC’s leading receiver, at 4.17 catches (7^th in conf.) and 90.67 yards (1^st in conf.) per game. At just twenty and two months, Riley is younger than some that play major college football as freshman, but he’s been a rock for Lewis. Riley has about 1400 yards and 14 scores in his career, and he’s still just a junior. Senior WR Jomar Wright is another long-term guy having his best year yet in the blue and white, with 31 catches for 346 yards and 3 TD at the midpoint.

Defense: The numbers aren’t pretty.

11^th in the ACC against the run, 177.33 ypg

12^th in the ACC at pass efficiency D, 144.15

12^th in the ACC at total yardage D, 437.17 ypg

12^th in the ACC at scoring D, 32.33 ppg

11^th in the ACC against the pass, 259.83 ypg

OK, so the Duke D ain’t good. The unit’s biggest problem this year has been an inability to get off the field on possession downs, and give the volatile offense a chance to explode in to a groove. Once the unit woke up and got a few stops against Wake, look what happened: the Devils only had to punt on one of their last five possessions, and almost won the football game. The key for Tech will be getting a lot of third downs in the 2-6 yard area. Keep the sticks moving with manageable down & distance, and the overmatched Duke D will really have no chance.

Sophomore LB Vincent Rey is the ACC’s leading tackler (12 tpg), and has been a beast all year. Rey had 12 tackles against Wake, including three TFL, and can make hits all over the field. Rey is a lot like Lewis: a talented young player that represents a new kind of Duke football player. #31 got out of the gate strong with a devastating 17 tackle, 2 sacks performance against UCONN that set the tone for the kind of year he’s having. Rey has had a TFL in every game but one this year, and he just has to be marked at all times.

Senior DL Patrick Bailey isn’t an outstanding talent, but is coming up on 200 career tackles, so he can make a play here and there. Bailey also as a TFL in every game but one, and his 12 stops against Northwestern helped give Duke a great chance to win on the road.

The secondary obviously isn’t too good, but with the way Tyrod Taylor is throwing, any threat is significant, and sophomore DB Leon Wright is just that. With 3 picks on the year, including two against Miami, Wright is the Devils’ best hope to pick off some passes and cause Taylor trouble. Against Wake, he returned to his last year’s role of also returning punts, and did a pretty nice job, handling 4 for 52 yards.

Special Teams: As mentioned above, Wright looks to be the punt returner now, with Jabari Marshall the main kick return guy. Marshall knows what he’s doing back there, having averaged 25 yards a return in 2006, and getting off to a nice start in 2007, with a TD against UCONN and 29 returns for 26 yards a pop, good for 2^nd in the conference.

The Duke placekicking game is in outright disarray, with junior Joe Surgan sitting on just 4 of 14 FGs made since the start of 2001. Who knows which kicker gets the FG duties this weekend, but Greg Meyers missed his only attempt, and Nick Maggio has only been allowed to do extra points (4 of 4). Freshman Kevin Jones has showed promise punting the ball, with a 41.1 yard average on 26 kicks.

Prediction: The weapons in Durham scare me, but the defense is just too shaky overall to give VA Tech much of a scare. Expect about 12 pass attempts from Taylor; the Hokies can’t run the ball too much in this game. Methinks the final is a bit closer than some Hokie fans would like, but a win is a win, and after this, it’s on to Chestnut Hill. Virginia Tech 24, Duke 13.

cking game is in outright disarray, with junior Joe Surgan sitting on just 4 of 14 FGs made since the start of 2001. Who knows which kicker gets the FG duties this weekend, but Greg Meyers missed his only attempt, and Nick Maggio has only been allowed to do extra points (4 of 4). Freshman Kevin Jones has showed promise punting the ball, with a 41.1 yard average on 26 kicks.

Prediction: The weapons in Durham scare me, but the defense is just too shaky overall to give VA Tech much of a scare. Expect about 12 pass attempts from Taylor; the Hokies can’t run the ball too much in this game. Methinks the final is a bit closer than some Hokie fans would like, but a win is a win, and after this, it’s on to Chestnut Hill. Virginia Tech 24, Duke 13.

Virginia Tech at Clemson Preview

And here we are. While most Tech fans had high hopes for the trip to LSU, this week’s contest against Clemson has been the one circled as a contest that will play a large part in making or breaking the Hokies’ season. And, with Clemson’s 13-3 defeat at Georgia Tech last week, the Tigers now enter the game coming off a loss, and needing a win to keep their Atlantic Division hopes alive. Let’s check out the matchup:

Clemson (4-1, 2-1 ACC)

Offense: Before the wheels came off in Atlanta, this unit had been humming along pretty well. Junior QB Cullen Harper is still off to a really nice start, with season numbers of 92-147 for 1158 yards. The impressive stat, and the one most important to Clemson’s success, considering their stable of solid possession backs, is that Harper has thrown 12 TDs to just 1 INT. Harper’s not much of a threat to make an impact with his legs, and his lack of mobility has been a big factor in the 14 sacks he’s taken. Harper went down 6 times against the Ramblin’ Wreck, and was harried constantly. It seems to me like this awful QB protection rate (3.2 sacks per game, 104^th nationally) is a dual responsibility of the line and Harper. Either way, its got to change, because the Hokie front seven will be coming from all directions and trying to replicate the performance the other Tech put on last week. James Davis and CJ Spiller are the dual feature backs, with Davis being the much more consistent of the two. They both have big play capability, but Davis hasn’t averaged less than 5.0 yards a pop in any of the first 5 games of this year. Spiller is dangerous, too, but hasn’t had a great year statistically, and completely disappeared against both Furman and Georgia Tech. As James Davis goes, so goes the Clemson running game. As far as the passing game, if Harper has time to throw, he’ll look first to Aaron Kelly, a junior WR. Kelly has been a key player in the Clemson aerial attack for three years, and if he keeps up at this rate, he might have a shot at a lot of the Tigers’ all time receiving marks. He’s on pace for a 70 catch, 800 yard season in 2007. Sophomore Jacoby Ford and junior Tyler Grisham, both WRs, will catch some balls as well. The key with Harper and the Clemson passing game is not giving him time to set up and throw from the pocket. When Harper has it, he’s very efficient. When he doesn’t, the Clemson can and will be stopped.

Defense: Overall, the Clemson defense has been pretty darn stout this year, and can’t take much of the responsibility for the Georgia Tech defeat. The Tigers limited Tech to just 256 yards, and the other two ACC foes, NC State and Florida State, got just 202 and 256, respectively. Clemson is especially good defending against the pass; even with three blow out wins under their belt, which should means teams are throwing a lot against them, they’re 8^th nationally in pass yardage D and 7^th in pass efficiency D. Junior DB Michael Hamlin is a ball-hawking player with 7 career interceptions, including one in each of the last three games. The Tigers aren’t spectacular defending the run, at 66^th nationally, so its even more incumbent than usual for Brandon Ore and Tyrod Taylor to make things happen on the ground. The D is sitting at 4^th in the league in TFL right now, and Phillip Merling is a standout in this area, with 9 of his 27 overall tackles coming behind the line of scrimmage. Young gun Ricky Sapp, a sophomore DL, will also get in the backfield; Sapp has 2.5 sacks this year after nabbing four during his freshman campaign. All in all, the strength of this unit is in defending the pass, but there should be some holes between the tackles.

Special Teams: The weakness of the squad is certainly special teams at this point in the year. The Clemson punt cover unit is 102th nationally in net punting, with a measly 31.67 yards coming of it every time the Tigers willingly change possession. Their kick return unit hasn’t been good either, logging just 18 yards a kick. In these days of kickoffs from the 30 yard line, that’s a terrible total, and it’s only good for 113^th nationally. Kicker Mark Buchholz was off to a solid start, but shanked four of five kicks against Georgia Tech, potentially costing Clemson the game. Buchholz appears to have held on his starting job, but its tough to say how he’ll bounce back mentally from such an awful effort.

Prediction: Clemson is a solid outfit on both sides of the ball. If the Tigers had beaten Georgia Tech, I’d be picking the Hokies today, but Clemson needs this game desperately, and Coach Tommy Bowden might need it that badly as well. VA Tech can still lose and win their division; Clemson really can’t, and I think the added sense of urgency will be enough to win a squeaker. Clemson 17, VA Tech 16.

ACC Power Rankings: Week Six

No comments necessary. Here’s how these teams stack up right now, not how they’ll be at year’s end or in the final standings.

1. Boston College – BC got the win over UMASS Saturday, but it wasn’t glamorous or altogether impressive. 208 passing yards is too many against a team of this skill level, but the real shocking thing was that it wasn’t like BC turned the ball over a bunch of times and kept UMASS in the game. There were no turnovers from either side; the Eagles just struggled to move the ball way too often. If UMASS hadn’t been penalized a whopping 17 times for 114 yards, it might have been much, much closer.
2. Virginia Tech – The development of Tyrod Taylor took a step back Saturday, as Taylor and the Hokies failed to generate much offense at all, with Taylor throwing for 66 yards on 10-19 passing against a secondary that had been abysmal to date. There weren’t a ton of turnovers (just one), which was good news for Tech, but there weren’t a lot of first downs either (18 for UNC, 11 for Tech). Where did Anthony Elzy come from? You can’t fault the defense, but when they weren’t putting TJ Yates on his back, they gave up too many ground yards. Its unfortunate that the Tech D has to carry the entire squad again in 2007.
3. Clemson – Clemson has to be the hardest team to put in power rankings in the country, because they’re almost always capable of an A+ game and a D- game week to week. The gag against Georgia Tech was vintage Clemson – a brutal performance against a lame duck opponent. This team is capable of hanging with USC and losing to Wofford if you catch them on the right day. The Ramblin’ Wreck put Cullen Harper on the turf six times and Clemson never got to Taylor Bennett. In a game where field position was at a premium, that was key.
4. Wake Forest – With all the turmoil in the conference this weekend, the Deacons benefited just by having a week off to celebrate the amazing comeback against the Terps last weekend. The offense hasn’t really shown signs it can score on anyone outside those last couple quarters against Maryland, so Jeremy Thompson (5 sacks) and the defense have to carry the load. Better not look past Duke this weekend; the Devils could win this game.
5. Maryland – Congrats to the Turtles on a nice road win, but let’s not kid ourselves – Rutgers hadn’t beaten anyone this year, and any bettor worth their salt knew the 18.5 point spread was the easiest money in Vegas last weekend. Maryland looked great in dispatching the Scarlet Knights, with Keon Lattimore punishing Rutgers for 110 yards rushing and senior RB Lance Ball getting 90 tough yards as well. Not a bad big time debut for sophomore QB Chris Turner, either (14-20, 149 yards). The D gets big marks for holding Ray Rice, one of the nation’s best, under 100 yards.
6. Florida State – With two weeks to prepare, Bowden The Elder can still put together a nifty little game plan, can’t he? Whatever the reason for FSU’s victory over Alabama, it was a big win for the Noles, who are looking to make any announcement they can to assert their national relevance. FSU was good against the run, and they’ve been great all year (10^th nationally). In a year where the ACC is awfully low on playmaking QBs, the matchups might shake right for FSU to find a way to 8 or 9 wins.
7. Virginia – The Hoos put forth another solid performance Saturday, beating Pitt, 44-14. This is the 109^th ranked offense in the nation, people, and in two weeks they could be looking at 6-1 while facing Maryland. Credit the Cavs – they haven’t beaten themselves like so many others (see: Clemson) and sophomore QB Jameel Sewell hasn’t thrown a pick since the season opening loss at Wyoming. Sewell even got the feet going against Pitt, running for 64 yards on 12 tries. For a young guy, Sewell does a remarkable job of spreading the rock; through 5 games, 7 receivers average a catch or more per game.
8. Georgia Tech – Tashard Choice threw his hat in the ring for ACC Player of the Year with a bruising 32 carry, 145 yard outing, making the Tigers wish they’d never made the trip to the ATL. Forget the 196 he put up in South Bend, these 145 punishing yards drew all the focus of the Clemson D, but Tech kept feeding the beast, and Choice carried them to the winner’s circle. On the defensive side, the Jackets got back to business by hitting Cullen Harper early and often, netting 6 sacks in a swarming effort befitting their mascot.
9. Miami – The ‘Canes got all they wanted and then some from the Dukies, and didn’t put away the Devils until 2 minutes were left in the game. Kyle Wright was accurate again (19-23, 230 yards) in Miami’s controlled passing game, but 2 of his 4 incompletions were picks. Craig Cooper topped the century mark for the first time in ACC; he’ll do it a few more times before he’s done. The offense has been efficient sure, but the yards aren’t there yet. How often has a Miami team been 85^th yards and 72^nd in scoring in the last two decades?
10. Duke – The Devils got close again, getting a great effort from RB Re’quan Boyette, who got 71 tough yards, but Duke came up short against a much more talented Miami squad. A brutal stretch of four road games is now over and I’m telling you, Duke’s not done winning this year. Sophomore LB Vincent Rey is the ACC’s leading tackler (12 per game), and for the first time in years, there’s real reasons to be excited in Durham.
11. NC State – The ‘Pack can’t stop the run, clocking in at 116^th nationally, and that’s death in this conference. Teams with weak secondaries can survive this year’s ACC with Matt Ryan the exception to the rule. But NC State can’t stop anybody between the tackles, and their propensity for turnovers (118^th nationally in turnover margin) doesn’t help much either. The offense can’t find a groove either, with the Harrison Beck-led attack getting just 300 yards and 10 points against a Louisville D that had given up 40 points three straight weeks.
12. North Carolina – The Heels brought their A game to Blacksburg, and I don’t care who the QB is – if you come in to Lane Stadium and hold Tech to 240 yards, you get a helmet sticker. Anthony Elzy came out of nowhere to lead Carolina in rushing with 73 yards. If he can establish himself as a playmaker in the backfield, and the line can continue to protect youngun TJ Yates (4 sacks allowed in 5 games), UNC might have an offense on their hands.