Monday, November 19, 2007

SEC Power Rankings: Week 13

We’ve got teams playing for the BCS, teams playing for bowl eligibility, teams playing for rivalry trophies, and teams playing for pride. It’s the SEC, Week Thirteen. Who would beat who on a neutral field tomorrow? You might be surprised...

1. Georgia - Who would you pick to beat the Bulldogs on a neutral field right now? LSU, and its defense that hasn’t held an SEC team under 24 points since September 22nd? Florida, and its defense, that didn’t hold a single SEC team under 20 points all year? For now, I’m taking the ‘Dawgs, who are just about toe to toe with either of those squads on offense, and have held Okie State, So. Carolina, Ole Miss, Vandy, Auburn and Kentucky to 20 points or less.

2. LSU- The Tigers are going to the national title game, in all likelihood, after this week’s win over Arkansas and a title game triumph over Tennessee. When they get there, I’m a little concerned that folks will expect last year’s Florida Gators and be down on the SEC when they don’t get it. I’m not concerned at all at the close margin of LSU’s recent losses - what alarms me is how quickly their defense seemed to go from world beater good to just plain average once the competition level stepped up.

3. Florida - Congratulations to Tim Tebow, who seems like a pretty good guy despite being a Gator, and will likely walk away with the Heisman Trophy in Manhattan two weeks from now. 20 passing TDs, 20 rushing TDs, SEC competition? That’s definitely Heisman worthy, and will give Urban Meyer’s program a nice little offseason jolt as they prepare to pound the Big Ten’s third or fourth best team in some Florida bowl.

4. Auburn - Here’s another defense that looks elite against the lowlifes but can’t stop SEC’s best teams. Auburn’s D gave up 20 points in a four game span from October 6 to November 3rd - problem is, when they played LSU and Georgia, they couldn’t get off the field. Quick shout out to the Tiger punting game, which leads the nation in net punting average on the heel of Ryan Shoemaker’s toe. The kid averages 44.19 yards a kick, best in the league, and boasts great hang time.

5. Tennessee - The road to Atlanta runs through Kentucky, and Vegas’ early line has the Vols as 2 point underdogs to the home field Wildcats. UT has won four straight and seven of eight, but the wins aren’t quite like LSU’s gutcheck specials. The Vols keep squeaking by teams, and now head on the road for the first time since October 20th when they got pounded at Alabama. Here’s my tip: create some fake news headlines that suggest Fulmer’s job is on the line. That usually makes UT play its best.

6. Kentucky - The ‘Cats couldn’t finish the first half against Georgia, and paid for it by surrendering locker room momentum to the Bulldogs. The defense isn’t raking up nearly enough TFL, ranking 11th in the league, and also hasn’t been able to keep teams out of the end zone, at 11th in the league in scoring. There could be a big difference in how this season is viewed in Wildcat Country based on Saturday’s finale vs. Tennessee.

7. Arkansas - I have to give the Hogs credit for knocking off a hungry Mississippi State squad in the “home” finale this weekend. Even more shocking was how successful Casey Dick was throwing the football. How much would you have bet that Dick would never throw 4 TD against no picks? Well, it happened. Bad news: McFadden will be the first draft pick, but isn’t even the MVP in his own conference.

8. South Carolina - The Gamecocks aren’t getting the respect of Vegas this weekend, as a 2.5 point underdog on their home field against Clemson. With two weeks to prepare on its home turf against the road-weary, hated Tigers, I’ll take the Gamecocks and the points, thank you very much. The league’s best pass D is going to thrash whatever poor squad it gets in the Nobody Cares Bowl.

9. Mississippi State - After the huge win over ‘Bama, Mississippi State couldn’t defend the pass in Little Rock and now needs an Egg Bowl win to go bowling. Jamayel Smith looked like Terrell Owens against the Hogs, and if Anthony Dixon follows suit, this should be an easy win. However, programs like MSU’s are pretty good at finding ways to lose games like this one against Ole Miss. I’m rooting for them. The SEC could use another good team.

10. Alabama - Nick Saban’s contract: $32 million. Season tickets to Crimson Tide football games: $450. Senior Day loss to UL-Monroe: Priceless.

11. Vanderbilt - Vandy!! The sad inability to finish off a potential season-making win at in-state bully Tennessee puts the Commodores in the unenviable position of needing to beat Wake Forest in the finale to get to .500. Will this be a let down game after the big fourth quarter choke? On talent alone, Vandy can and should win. Above the shoulderpads, I’m skeptical.

12. Ole Miss - Here’s your task, Rebs: ruin your rival’s season by beating them on their home turf and keeping them out of bowl consideration. No doubt the Egg Bowl is going to be close, but the Rebel defense is 12th in the league in every single major category; rush D, pass D, total D, scoring D, turnover margin. That’s a bad recipe playing against a team with a hot offense and a mission.

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