Showing posts with label Power Rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Power Rankings. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

SEC Power Rankings: Final

Before we could blink, Nutt was out, and Nutt was in. The embattled Hogs coach has a new zipcode in Athens, and his hot seat in Fayetteville is still warm. How would the teams stack up on a neutral field tomorrow? Check it:

  1. Georgia – The Bulldogs sit at 10-2, on the cusp of the national title contest, and cozily at home in front of the televisions for the SEC championship game. Obviously, every true Dawg would love a shot at the conference title, but with all the unpredictability in the nation this year, there has to be just a small part of every Georgia heart that doesn’t mind the view from the sofa. My SEC Coach of the Year ballot goes: 1. Mark Richt, 2. Sylvester Croom, 3. Tommy Tuberville.
  2. Auburn – Yep, these are the best Tigers in the league. Auburn barely lost at LSU, and on a neutral field, there’s no reason to think Auburn wouldn’t pull out the win. Everyone freaked out early in the year when the Tigers lost at home to USF and Mississippi State. I’m not saying those were good losses, by any stretch, but looking at the season in hindsight: two September losses to quality bowl teams, two late season losses on the road to top-10 teams. Best 8-4 team in the country.
  3. LSU – I’ve been saying it for weeks, but the Tiger defense has been incredibly average dating all the way back to the beginning of October. The repeated national recitation that LSU’s defense is a world beater is a classic example of how the national media picks a perception and then stops doing homework. Since beating Mississippi State 45-0, the Tiger D didn’t hold a single SEC offense below 24 points in regulation. Even in a league this loaded, that’s an impressive record of mediocrity.
  4. Florida – Do you have any idea how badly the Gators are going to destroy whoever the Big Ten’s 4th best team is in whatever Florida bowl they end up in? If Tim Tebow doesn’t win the Heisman, the biggest reason might be Tennessee and Kentucky’s 4 OT classic in Lexington. While Tebow was lighting up the ‘Noles with deadly passes to every part of the field, most of the country couldn’t see it because they were stuck watching UT and UK do battle.
  5. Tennessee – The Vols got another “impressive” win that toed the line between lackluster and gutsy. Despite leading by a ton early, Kentucky had the game won at least twice, but couldn’t finish, sending the Vols to the title game. With UT and LSU both coming off multiple OT games with national and conference championships on the line, I’m betting we get some sloppy play in the first half of this weekend’s contest.
  6. Kentucky – Only one team could win in Lexington, and somehow it didn’t end up being Kentucky. I get the feeling that 49 out of 50 states of the union were pulling for the ‘Cats, but a blocked FG and some poor red zone play calling by the UK offensive team kept the nation’s new longest heads up losing streak alive. You want the best evidence going that the SEC is much stronger than every other major league? UK finished 10th in the SEC standings. 10th place in the Big 12, Big 10, ACC and Pac-10? Nebraska, Northwestern, North Carolina, and Stanford. UK might be an all-star team of those four schools.
  7. Arkansas – I gotta give credit to Arkansas for its win at LSU this weekend. Talk about vengeance. After a loss to LSU in the Rock last season cost Arkansas a shot at the national title, the Hawgs circled the wagons and exacted sweet revenge in the Bayou on the back of Darren McFadden and a very good offensive line. How do they celebrate revenge in Fayetteville? Sending the winning coach on the first train out of town, to Athens, Mississippi of all places.
  8. South Carolina – Spurrier to LSU? That’s the whisper I keep hearing in SEC circles, and while I’m not totally sold, it would be an almost Shakespearean journey full circle. Nick Saban left LSU to coach in the pros, found himself overmatched and confused, and returned home to an SEC rival. Who might end up in his old digs? Spurrier, who left Florida to coach in the pros, found himself overmatched and confused, and returned home to an SEC rival. It’s rich. I hope it happens.
  9. Mississippi State – Whew. The Bulldogs almost blew the whole thing with an awful first three quarters in the Egg Bowl, but somehow got it going just in time to beat Ole Miss and earn a bowl bid. I absolutely loved the display of emotion from Sly Croom after the game. In an era where plenty of coaches use every chance they get to campaign for players to win awards (Houston Nutt) or campaign for the next job (Brian Kelly), Croom almost couldn’t speak, he was so proud of his team’s journey this year. Bravo, Sly.
  10. Alabama – What’s left to say about Alabama? 6-6 and probably out of the bowl hunt, ‘Bama had no offense (75th in yards), no pass defense (9th in the SEC), a poor QB (99th in QB rating) and no consistency. Hold the groundbreaking on the Saban statue.
  11. Vanderbilt – They brought this on themselves. Vandy had every chance in the world to go bowling this year. But they couldn’t finish against Georgia, couldn’t finish against Kentucky, couldn’t finish against Tennessee, and scheduled the defending ACC champion in late November. They brought this on themselves.
  12. Ole Miss – Out with the Orgeron, in with the Nutt. David Cutcliffe had 5 of 6 winning season and got canned. Orgeron, hired as an ace recruiter, was given 3 seasons and 2 recruiting campaigns to build a team. Now comes Houston Nutt, who isn’t exactly known as a great game day schemer. ESPN’s Pat Forde wrote this week that no school in the nation has more ridiculous expectations than the Rebs. I can’t disagree.

C-USA Power Rankings: Final

Two 2,000 yard rushers, three coaching changes and a boat load of points. And that’s just the last two weeks. Final C-USA Power Rankings of the year, on three. Ready, break!

  1. UCF – I lean toward the Knights this week. Tulsa impressed me a lot in recent weeks, but didn’t bring it at Rice this weekend, and it’s hard to argue with the league’s best conference record and, perhaps, the league’s best player. Anyone a bit surprised that Vegas has UCF a full 7 point favorite over the Golden Hurricane. I am.
  2. Tulsa – Paul Smith led the league in passing yards by almost 1,000, a pretty amazing feat in any league, and even more so in the C-USA where defenses almost seem disappointed if you don’t throw for 300 on them. And yet Tulsa just couldn’t put away Rice, giving up 700 yards and an astounding 38 first downs in 104 plays against the Owls. Will the defense make the trip to Orlando, or just let Smith fend for himself?
  3. Houston – Cougar coach Art Briles is headed to Baylor to take on one of D-I’s hardest, least glamorous and most frustrating jobs. He leaves behind a Cougar program with a recent track record of success that should be bowling again this year. What kind of coach will Houston get to take over a program on the rise in prime recruiting territory in a conference where you can make a splash early? I’m betting it’s a good one. Todd Dodge from North Texas? Maybe.
  4. ECU – I’ve said it before, but if the Pirates don’t snag a bowl bid, Skip Holtz needs only look at his schedule makers. This is truly a top flight C-USA team/program now. There’s no excuse to miss a bowl game because they’re playing VA Tech, No. Carolina, W. Virginia and NC State in the same season. None. You’re telling me the Pirates can’t get a home and home with a top MAC or Sun Belt school and get it on ESPN2 early in the year?
  5. Memphis – The Tigers’ turnaround this year was truly one that could pay huge dividends for this program down the road. I’m not in the locker room, so I don’t know what went on in there, but Memphis rallied to win 6 of its last 7 C-USA games following the tragic death of lineman Taylor Bradford after the team had looked pretty awful, starting 0-3 against FBS teams in the month of September. Now, the Tigers are off to the New Orleans Bowl. Well done, Memphis.
  6. Southern Miss – OK, Southern Miss. Who exactly do you think you are? The company line is that Jeff Bower “resigned”, but we’ve heard that one before. The writing is on the wall that FBS’ 4th longest tenured head coach was forced out following a 5-3/7-5 season that will end when the Golden Eagles play a major Big East school in the PapaJohns.com Bowl on December 22. If, indeed, Bower was shown the door, there better be some serious behind-the-scenes stuff going on, because if not…So. Miss is buried in SEC territory, and now under the shadow of the improving Mississippi State. There’s a difference between ambition and folly. Firing Bower would qualify as the latter.
  7. Tulane – You’re Matt Forte. You ran for 2,127 yards and 23 TD. You’re a beast. But the rest of your team is really, really bad, you’re getting no love from the national media, you’re going nowhere for the holidays except Christmas dinner, and there’s a great chance you won’t finish better than 3rd in the voting for player of the year in your own conference. Maybe you can ask Santa for a passing game.
  8. Marshall – From the Better Late Than Never File, Bernard Morris set the league on fire starting Halloween weekend, turning Huntington in to the C-USA’s most formidable homefield advantage over the homestretch. Marshall went 3-0 at home starting with the Rice win. Maybe next year they’ll win a road game.
  9. Rice – If somebody has a fire extinguisher, they may want to use it on Chase Clement. Clement threw for 1,658 yards in the last four games, and ran for over 300 yards in those four contests as well. Good grief. 26:9 TD:INT ratio in C-USA play ain’t too bad either. Can Clement make a run in the player of the year race next year? It almost helps that the Rice D is so bad…the more 60 passing attempt games for Clement, the better.
  10. UTEP – Second half Miners, meet first half Miners. First half Miners were 4-2, and they beat Tulsa, the league’s most explosive team. The First Half Miners fought until the end of games, and always provided exciting finishes. Isn’t that impressive? They even battled deadly Texas Tech all the way to the end of the game. What’s that, Second Half Miners? You don’t know how these guys turned in to you and your 0-6 second half record? Me neither.
  11. SMU – When did Phil Bennett lose this time? The season opening 49-9 drubbing vs. Texas Tech? The brutal 21-7 loss at TCU they really should have won? The official announcement of his firing? Maybe he never did, considering the Ponies were with 10 points in 6 of the 8 C-USA losses. Regardless, it’s the beginning of a new era in Dallas. Here’s betting the coaching pool at Houston is a bit better.
  12. UAB – The Blazers outpaced SMU in wins, but the losses were much, much uglier. Where as SMU was within 10 in 75% of the league games, UAB was beaten by 16 or more in 60% of its losses this year. Looking across the border at the Southern Miss coaching staff getting pinkslips, you think the UAB staff expanded office hours?

MAC Power Rankings: Final

This is it for 2007. We’ve got a championship game in the offing, but the regular season is in the can. It’s been a typically wild year; lots of great finishes, explosive offense, and great storylines all over the league. For old time’s sake, how do they stack up this Wednesday morning? Let’s do it:

  1. Ball State – I’ve thought all year that the Cardinals are the league’s best team, and I’m sticking to it. BSU has only itself to blame for not earning the trip to Detroit this weekend, and that’ll be true if they don’t go bowling as well. But they really deserve it. This team could definitely give a mid-pack Big East team a run in the International Bowl.
  2. Central Michigan – CMU is a 4 point favorite in Detroit this weekend, and I think the Chips will defend their title with a win over Miami. The Chippewas have taken care of business in every MAC game that mattered this year, and I think they’ll earn a touchdown win the title tilt. Dan LeFevour and Antonio Brown are near locks for Player and Freshman of the Year.
  3. Miami – You could make a compelling argument for Bowling Green in this spot, based on its 8 wins and better overall MAC record. However, I give the Redhawks a pass of sorts for the Ohio loss. They already had the East wrapped up, and they were playing a road game against a rival playing for a .500 season. Oh yeah, and they beat BGSU by about 200 just four weeks ago. Will Shane Montgomery edge Turner Gill for coach of the year? It’ll be close, believe me.
  4. Bowling Green – The Falcons should be bowling somewhere after a dominating win over Toledo with the Peace Pipe on the line. Let me make a quick case for the Falcons making a bowl game: they’ve won their last 4 games, they’re 8-4, they score a ton of points, they have three players that can throw, run and catch TDs, and after speaking to a few fans at the Battle for I-95, I have a gut feeling they’ll travel.
  5. Buffalo – I’m sticking with the Bulls in the upper division even though they undeniably lost a step late in the year. Still, 5-7 is a monumental step forward for this team, and I’m in the camp thinking that Coach Gill will be around for a couple years, at least. Buffalo will have to go a bowl game before speculation turns to offers, and I’m telling you right now – next year will be that year. Meet your 2008 MAC Champs.
  6. Ohio – The Bobcats showed glimmers of what we expected from them all year in a season-ending win over Miami, and a wrap-up streak that saw them win 3 of their last 4, including triumphs over BGSU and the Redhawks. Based on results alone, you’d have to conclude this team had a hard time bringing it’s A game every night: wins over the division’s best two teams, and losses to the worst two.
  7. Western Michigan – I’ve been skeptical of WMU all year, but I’ve got to give them big ups for finishing the year strong when some teams would have packed it in and gotten out the golf clubs. The win at Iowa wasn’t over a great team, but it was a Big Ten win, and the Broncos capped the year by pounding Temple. Can Bill Cubit figure out how to get along with QB Tim Hiller in the offseason?
  8. AkronAkron gave CMU a big scare on the penultimate senior day in the Rubber Bowl before succumbing to the top seeded Chips. Jabari Arthur had a pretty monster year statistically, with 86 catches and 1171 yards, but every time I saw this team in person, Arthur never really seemed in the flow of the offense. Still, the numbers don’t lie, and he was the best receiver in the league on numbers alone.
  9. Eastern Michigan – Along with Ohio, the Eagles were the most confusing team in the league this year, bringing the big guns to in-state showdowns against WMU and CMU (to win the Michigan MAC), but failing to do much of anything against the rest of the league. In hindsight, it makes a bit of sense – the cross-state showdowns gave EMU a little extra juice, but Jeff Genyk doesn’t have the horses for the entire 12 game grind. Yet.
  10. Toledo – If you want to be entertained, the Rockets are your team. No team in the league was as capable of putting up 70 (vs. NIU), giving up 30 (9 times out of 12), winning dramatic last-minute victories (by 1 over ISU and Liberty) or possessing any number of thrilling characteristics. Jalen Parmele is the most underrated player in the league, but at least the Rockets are exciting.
  11. Temple – The budding rivalry in this league is Al Golden vs. Turner Gill, and Temple vs. Buffalo. Geographically, the schools are the league’s two outsiders to the East. They’re also the league’s two most recent admits. Throw in to the mix that each coach has his program on the rise and you’ve got a rivalry for the MAC’s eastern seaboard that will last as long as each coach does at his respective school. In this writer’s mind, they’re also the top two picks for the East in 2008.
  12. Kent State – Hopefully, KSU coach Doug Martin gave thanks for Eugene Jarvis over Thanksgiving turkey. Jarvis ended the year with a league leading rushing 1669 yards, and a team leading 306 receiving yards. That’s almost 2000 yards on a team where no one else topped 500, and that player, Julian Edelman, missed the season’s second half with injuries. How bad would 3-9 KSU have been without Jarvis?
  13. Northern Illinois – Congratulations, Joe Novak. You built a solid program, gave the NIU fans tons of great memories, gave the NFL some great small-college running backs, won a couple division titles. You also made a lot of friends along the way, known around the league press as the consummate nice guy who did things with class and a sense of humor. Well done, sir.

Monday, November 19, 2007

SEC Power Rankings: Week 13

We’ve got teams playing for the BCS, teams playing for bowl eligibility, teams playing for rivalry trophies, and teams playing for pride. It’s the SEC, Week Thirteen. Who would beat who on a neutral field tomorrow? You might be surprised...

1. Georgia - Who would you pick to beat the Bulldogs on a neutral field right now? LSU, and its defense that hasn’t held an SEC team under 24 points since September 22nd? Florida, and its defense, that didn’t hold a single SEC team under 20 points all year? For now, I’m taking the ‘Dawgs, who are just about toe to toe with either of those squads on offense, and have held Okie State, So. Carolina, Ole Miss, Vandy, Auburn and Kentucky to 20 points or less.

2. LSU- The Tigers are going to the national title game, in all likelihood, after this week’s win over Arkansas and a title game triumph over Tennessee. When they get there, I’m a little concerned that folks will expect last year’s Florida Gators and be down on the SEC when they don’t get it. I’m not concerned at all at the close margin of LSU’s recent losses - what alarms me is how quickly their defense seemed to go from world beater good to just plain average once the competition level stepped up.

3. Florida - Congratulations to Tim Tebow, who seems like a pretty good guy despite being a Gator, and will likely walk away with the Heisman Trophy in Manhattan two weeks from now. 20 passing TDs, 20 rushing TDs, SEC competition? That’s definitely Heisman worthy, and will give Urban Meyer’s program a nice little offseason jolt as they prepare to pound the Big Ten’s third or fourth best team in some Florida bowl.

4. Auburn - Here’s another defense that looks elite against the lowlifes but can’t stop SEC’s best teams. Auburn’s D gave up 20 points in a four game span from October 6 to November 3rd - problem is, when they played LSU and Georgia, they couldn’t get off the field. Quick shout out to the Tiger punting game, which leads the nation in net punting average on the heel of Ryan Shoemaker’s toe. The kid averages 44.19 yards a kick, best in the league, and boasts great hang time.

5. Tennessee - The road to Atlanta runs through Kentucky, and Vegas’ early line has the Vols as 2 point underdogs to the home field Wildcats. UT has won four straight and seven of eight, but the wins aren’t quite like LSU’s gutcheck specials. The Vols keep squeaking by teams, and now head on the road for the first time since October 20th when they got pounded at Alabama. Here’s my tip: create some fake news headlines that suggest Fulmer’s job is on the line. That usually makes UT play its best.

6. Kentucky - The ‘Cats couldn’t finish the first half against Georgia, and paid for it by surrendering locker room momentum to the Bulldogs. The defense isn’t raking up nearly enough TFL, ranking 11th in the league, and also hasn’t been able to keep teams out of the end zone, at 11th in the league in scoring. There could be a big difference in how this season is viewed in Wildcat Country based on Saturday’s finale vs. Tennessee.

7. Arkansas - I have to give the Hogs credit for knocking off a hungry Mississippi State squad in the “home” finale this weekend. Even more shocking was how successful Casey Dick was throwing the football. How much would you have bet that Dick would never throw 4 TD against no picks? Well, it happened. Bad news: McFadden will be the first draft pick, but isn’t even the MVP in his own conference.

8. South Carolina - The Gamecocks aren’t getting the respect of Vegas this weekend, as a 2.5 point underdog on their home field against Clemson. With two weeks to prepare on its home turf against the road-weary, hated Tigers, I’ll take the Gamecocks and the points, thank you very much. The league’s best pass D is going to thrash whatever poor squad it gets in the Nobody Cares Bowl.

9. Mississippi State - After the huge win over ‘Bama, Mississippi State couldn’t defend the pass in Little Rock and now needs an Egg Bowl win to go bowling. Jamayel Smith looked like Terrell Owens against the Hogs, and if Anthony Dixon follows suit, this should be an easy win. However, programs like MSU’s are pretty good at finding ways to lose games like this one against Ole Miss. I’m rooting for them. The SEC could use another good team.

10. Alabama - Nick Saban’s contract: $32 million. Season tickets to Crimson Tide football games: $450. Senior Day loss to UL-Monroe: Priceless.

11. Vanderbilt - Vandy!! The sad inability to finish off a potential season-making win at in-state bully Tennessee puts the Commodores in the unenviable position of needing to beat Wake Forest in the finale to get to .500. Will this be a let down game after the big fourth quarter choke? On talent alone, Vandy can and should win. Above the shoulderpads, I’m skeptical.

12. Ole Miss - Here’s your task, Rebs: ruin your rival’s season by beating them on their home turf and keeping them out of bowl consideration. No doubt the Egg Bowl is going to be close, but the Rebel defense is 12th in the league in every single major category; rush D, pass D, total D, scoring D, turnover margin. That’s a bad recipe playing against a team with a hot offense and a mission.

C-USA Power Rankings: Week 13

Here we are. One week to go. Some teams have nothing to play for, and some teams have everything to play for. How would they stack up a neutral field tomorrow?

1. UCF - I keep wiggling back and forth between Tulsa and UCF for the top spot. The Knights are riding a 5-game winning streak which includes wins over Tulsa and Southern Miss in to El Paso this Saturday. You can’t look past the Miners, but if UCF wins and then hosts the C-USA title tilt, that’s a 10-win season. Anything short of a league title is a big disappointment now.
2. Tulsa - The Golden Hurricane looked just vulnerable enough at Michie Stadium for me to yank them from the top spot. I’m not concerned that Tulsa will lose the West, by any means, but 39 points is a lot to surrender, even to an inspired Cadet bunch playing on senior day. That’s the 115th best offense in the country we’re talking about, and it lit up the Tulsa D for 500 yards.
3. East Carolina - The Pirates are still trying to figure out how they lost to Marshall. They can still go bowling, perhaps, with a win over Tulane on senior day. Looking back on the schedule, and seeing how hard they’ll have to fight to get 7 wins, wouldn’t it be nice to trade either VA Tech, W. Virginia or NC State for an easy victory? The difference between 7 and 8 wins is huge come bowl season.
4. Memphis - Without any breakout candidates, Memphis’ Tommy West might be the C-USA coach of the year. After team member Taylor Bradford was slain, the Tigers were 1-3 and looking terrible. Since then, they’re 5-1 in C-USA with only a loss to ECU. Memphis will probably be bowling with a win over SMU on Senior Day. The offense has climbed all the way to 23rd nationally on the arm of Martin Hankins, and the Tigers are one of C-USA best teams in the turnover battle, ranking 17th nationally.
5. Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are another team on the cusp of bowl eligibility, and will get there with a win over Arkansas State Saturday. What does this say about the league - So. Miss has the C-USA’s best scoring defense, but the unit ranks only 45th nationally. If this team scheduled like Kansas, it would be 8-3.
6. Houston - Call me when the Cougs recover from the Tulsa beat down last Saturday. Houston almost became the third team in a month to fall prey to the upstart Herd, but survived to get to 7-4 and keep their West hopes a live. If they win, it’ll be backdoor style, as their C-USA slate is done, and they have to hope that Tulsa loses to Rice. My gut tells me this a defense that could get exposed in a bowl game.
7. Tulane - Matt Forte will be a victim of Troy Davis syndrome, getting no Heisman love whatsoever because his teammates are so bad. I’m not suggesting Forte should win the award, or even be a finalist, but you haven’t heard his name mentioned at all, despite the fact that 2,000 yards is still a sacred mark in college football. Well, it used to be. Don’t you think of Forte played for Tulsa or Houston, he’d get some votes.
8. Marshall - There’s a big cleft right now between bad C-USA teams that stopped trying and bad C-USA teams that kept fighting. Marshall has kept fighting, and will likely get its third win in the last 5 over UAB this weekend. That’s an admirable turnaround, if only dual threat stud Bernard Morris were going to be around next year. Running back Darius Marshall is the future in Huntington, but he’s got a ways to go, especially without Morris to distract attention next year.
9. Rice - I’ll throw Rice in the “still fighting” camp as well. Ever sine the watershed win in Hattiesburg, the Owls have been in every single game, losing by 8 and 3 to Houston and Memphis and 13 and 14 to Marshall and Tulane. How worried am I that the Owls can spring one on Tulsa? Not terribly, but with the way Chase Clement is throwing the ball right now, who knows what kind of chances will be there against the Tulsa D?
10. SMU - 100 copies of Phil Bennett’s resume from Kinko’s: $99. Season tickets to SMU football: $200. 9 straight losses to end an embattled coach’s regime: Priceless.
11. UTEP - And now we get to the teams that stopped trying. Either El Paso is the biggest home field advantage in football, or UTEP gave up after losing by a FG to ECU and Houston back in October. Since then, the defense has been in offseason mode, giving up 56 to Rice and Southern Miss, while the offense mustered only 19 against Tulane. And still, I wouldn’t be one bit shocked if the Miners laid the wood to UCF this weekend. They’re just that kind of team.
12. UAB - When you’re ranked behind a team on a 9-game cooler and another that hasn’t given a crap since Halloween, you know you really stink up the joint. UAB is the rare C-USA squad: awful on both offense and defense, leaving the Blazers down and out but with hope for the future. Of the big playmakers, only senior QB Sam Hunt won’t be back next year.

MAC Power Rankings: Week 13

1. Ball State - I have to admit, I’ve been dying to put the Cardinals in this spot all year. Not because I’m a BSU fan or anything; I’ve just thought Ball State was the league’s best team all year, but had one terrible defensive game on the worst day possible, losing the division to CMU. Don’t get me wrong, the Chips deserve the West title, but if the season started over today, I’d pick Ball State.
2. Central Michigan - OK, being upset in a rivalry game is one thing, but giving up 48 points to Eastern Michigan? Seriously? How CMU responds this week at Akron will be one of the league’s most interesting stories. The undefeated MAC campaign is over, but now CMU has to beat Akron to guarantee a bowl game regardless of how the title tilt turns out. Will the defense answer the bell against the MAC’s worst offense?
3. Miami - Other than a midseason loss at Temple, the Redhawks have stepped up every single week, mostly on the strength of what is easily the league’s best defense. He won’t win the award, but LB Clayton Mullins deserves your consideration for Defensive Player of the Year. With an average MAC defense, the Redhawks have 4 wins tops, and Mullins seems to be in the mix on every big play.
4. Bowling Green - Who has the most wins in the conference? Yep, its the Falcons, after last week’s emphatic win at UB Stadium, which had already vexed East counterparts Ohio and Toledo. With a win this Friday in the Battle for I-95, the Falcons will have 8 wins, a 4-game winning streak, a rivalry win, and the league’s top passing attack. You think some bowl scouts aren’t dying for that combination?
5. Buffalo - Turner Gill’s awesome second campaign in Buffalo won’t end in Detroit, courtesy of the squad’s 31-17 loss to BGSU this weekend. I was a little surprised, as I thought the Bulls would knock off the Green, but it didn’t happen. Still, this is probably my pick to win the East in 2008. Drew Willy, James Starks, Mario Henry and the vastly underrated Naaman Roosevelt all return, giving Buffalo the league’s most potent returning combination on offense.
6. Akron - With the return of John Mackey, Akron’s defense has improved, peaking in a stunning shutout of Miami last week at Yager. Here’s the problem - the offense is worse than ever. Neither Chris Jacquemain or Carlton Jackson can throw downfield to save their life, and opposing Ds have been strong enough to take away Jabari Arthur from the Zip attack. The future is sophomore HB Alex Allen, who has looked explosive each of the three times I’ve seen the Zips in person.
7. Ohio - The Bobcats are a 3 point favorite over East Champ Miami on senior day at Peden, and I think it’s warranted. Now that Miami has the title wrapped up, they might lose a step, and with Ohio fighting for a .500 record on Senior Day, we should be in for a great ball game. Even though the Bobcats have been a bit of a disappointment this year, the D is still 2ndin the MAC in both sacks and TFL, led by Landon Cohen.
8. Toledo - After 85 seconds last Tuesday, the Rockets and Cardinals were on pace for 600 points. Both teams cooled their jets, but Toledo didn’t score in the second half, giving BSU a 41-20 victory. A victory this Friday over BGSU claims the Peace Pipe and gets Toledo to 6-6. The next time they get 7 home games, they’ll have to do better.
9. Eastern Michigan - You and I both know it: nobody has any clue how EMU is going to play on any given day. The league’s least predictable team beat up on the CMU defense for a 48-45 win, taking home the Michigan MAC trophy in style. Lost in all the unpredictability is the defense: how did a really salty unit in the early season, led by two of the league’s top 5 defenders, get so bad? In the last 5 MAC contests, EMU’s D held one opponent under 39 points.
10. Western Michigan - Credit to the Broncos. I’m telling you, the win at Iowa isn’t quite as impressive as some would like to think, but a major bravo for rebounding from a crushing loss to their rival to stun a Big Ten team in its own house. As bad as the MAC has been out of conference this year, this could really be the league’s signature win, not counting bowl season. Sad but true.
11. Temple - The Owls, like Buffalo, fought valiantly this year, but ran out of horses at season’s end. In hindsight, Adam DiMichele was easily one of the league’s most valuable players; Temple lost a ton of production and clutch play when he went down for the year. Al Golden and Turner Gill are going to be duking it out for league coach of the year honors for as long as both of them stick around.
12. Northern Illinois - The Huskies battled a capable Midshipmen squad, getting yet another 100 yard outing from Justin Anderson and what is backup QB Ryan Morris’ best game in awhile, certainly. Alex Kube was a beast, racking up 15 tackles, including 9 solos, but the Navy running attack was too much. Is this Joe Novak’s last year roaming the sidelines in DeKalb?
13. Kent State - Even in defeat, the Flashes represented the league well this weekend, battling Temple with a third-string QB, broken spirits, and nothing to play for but pride. The offense was brutal as Jon Brown threw 4 picks and converted just 2 of 12 third downs. Yet somehow KSU led 14-12 after three quarters before succumbing 24-14 in the fourth. Another valiant effort, another tough loss.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

MAC Power Rankings: Week 12

  1. Central Michigan – The Chips are in the title game courtesy of the big win at Western Michigan last Tuesday. In my heart of hearts, I still think Ball State is better, but there’s no way to take CMU out of the top spot after they drubbed the Cardinals by 20 at Schuemann. What are the odds of a letdown now that the title is locked up with two games to go? You know EMU will be coming for the Chippewas.
  2. Ball State – The Cardinals rolled Toledo last night and looked like a great candidate for the International Bowl in doing so. If Ball State wins at Northern, and it should, the Cardinals will be 7-5 with an explosive passing attack. I have a feeling the folks in Toronto would love to match up Ball State with a Big East team like Louisville. The schools are very close geographically, and the over/under would be about 150.
  3. Miami – The Redhawks will be put to the test over the next couple weeks. Miami’s been great under the radar all year, but now with the East title firmly in sight, how will this squad respond to the sight of the finish line? Shane Montgomery is one of only two plausible choices for Coach of the Year; for him to win it, Miami needs to win out and then win the title in Detroit.
  4. Buffalo – Don’t count out the Bulls from the East race just yet. Turner Gill’s staff has had two weeks to prepare for BGSU’s visit to UB Stadium, where Buffalo is 3-1 this year. After that, Buffalo road trips to Kent State to face a DOA Golden Flashes squad. Gill is obviously the run away choice for MAC Coach of the Year, and if Buffalo sneaks in to the MAC title game, he’ll be getting votes for the national award as well.
  5. Bowling Green – I finally saw the Falcons in person last Friday in Ypsilanti, and the offense looked pretty sharp. Who’s the best passing team in the MAC? Not CMU or Ball State – the answer is BGSU, at 292.70 yards a game. The rush D is the major handicap, and I think it’ll haunt the Falcons in Buffalo this weekend. James Starks and Mario Henry should get plenty of cracks at the nation’s 114th best rush D.
  6. Toledo – All the teams in the MAC’s third tier are closely bunched; I’ll take the Rockets here, begrudgingly. The Rockets have played an astounding 7 homes games to date, inflating their record a bit. 1-point wins over Iowa State and Liberty probably go the other way on the road, but hey, they’ve gotten the job done. In 4 road games, the Rockets haven’t yet held a team under 41 points. That be bad.
  7. Akron – JD Brookhart probably quelled any silly talk about his job being in jeopardy with the high scoring win over Ohio on ESPN2 last Wednesday. The task gets tougher the next couple weeks with the two division leaders, Miami and CMU. Can Akron play spoiler? Alex Allen looked like a potential first team all-MAC talent at the Rubber Bowl Wednesday.
  8. Ohio – The Bobcats shot their bowl hopes in the foot with the major letdown at Akron. Ohio is the one team in the league not afraid to pound the running game over and over, but when you’re playing 3 games in 12 days, that’s tough. Ohio now gets 16 days off before getting a shot at spoiling Miami’s East title in the season finale. McRae and the line will be rested; Solich has 17 days to craft a defensive game plan. The upset is very possible.
  9. Eastern Michigan – EMU has too many defensive talents to send its seniors off giving up 38 points to BGSU on Senior Night. The running game looked nasty against BGSU, but whose hasn’t? How bad will the Eagles be looking for a finale win against Central on Saturday? Answer: Really bad.
  10. Western Michigan – Who’s a bigger disappointment this year, Western or Kent State? Most folks say Kent, but I’m going with Western. The secondary was highly touted, and the media (not me) picked this team for 1st in the conference. Eyebrows are really starting to go up around the league with all the criticism coach Bill Cubit has leveled at QB Tim Hiller. Hiller hasn’t been great, but you didn’t hear a word of criticism last year when Cubit’s son was throwing passes.
  11. Temple – Al Golden was spitting fire after Penn State’s 31-0 victory over his Temple team Saturday. The game was much, much closer than the score indicated, especially after three quarters. Temple had a TD called back for penalty, dropped a pass in the end zone, missed a chippie field goal, and made several other back breaking mistakes. This team will win an East title in the next three years.
  12. Northern Illinois – If this is Joe Novak’s last year in DeKalb, and it may be, at least the Huskies got off the schneid in conference play by beating Kent State 27-29 this Saturday. Now NIU heads to Navy to face a Middie squad that scored 74 points Saturday…but gave up 62. Justin Anderson will be forgotten in postseason voting, but he’s been the best thing in DeKalb all year.
  13. Kent State – Shield your eyes, the glare from the car accident that has been Kent’s 2007 campaign is harsh. When your pass defense gets shredded by Dan Nicholson of NIU, you know you’ve got a problem. Eugene Jarvis continues to toil in losing efforts, at 5th nationally with 143 ypg.

SEC Power Rankings: Week 12

  1. LSU – The Tigers sit back on top the national title chase, and the mantle is well deserved. Only a 3 OT loss at Kentucky stands between this team and a flawless campaign, and with the ledger of ranked teams they’ve beaten, the Tigers deserves a shot at all the marbles. Can Arkansas do damage against the suddenly mortal defense?
  2. Georgia – The Bulldogs have looked amazing since the Tennessee loss, ripping off wins against Vandy, Florida, Troy and Auburn. Now they get Kentucky at home before heading to Atlanta on Thanksgiving weekend. With all the attrition among the nation’s top teams, the Bulldogs have to be looking like a BCS contender, especially in one of the southern bowl games. Still – the Wildcats will be a challenge. UGA’s 8th ranked SEC pass D could struggle against Woodson.
  3. Auburn – The Tigers finally came off their cloud between the Hedges Saturday. The loss didn’t shock me; the method did. Auburn gave up 45 points to Georgia, revealing some cracks in a D that had looked unbelievable the last few weeks. The bye week before Alabama should help Auburn get healthy – the pass rushers could use a little rest. Despite boasting the nation’s 11th best defense, Auburn is only 94th in sacks. Antonio Coleman needs to attack Wilson against ‘Bama.
  4. Florida – Tim Tebow deserves to win the Heisman. That fact is really undeniable now, with the punishment he’s taken from the nation’s best defensive league, and the numbers he’s put up in the process. Tebow is 9th in the SEC in rushing, 2nd nationally in scoring, 2nd nationally in passer rating, 7th in total offense and has just been abused by opposing defenses. The late press rush has been gaga over Oregon’s Dennis Dixon, but Tebow deserves the trophy.
  5. Tennessee – Erik Ainge owes the Vol offensive line a steak dinner. UT’s hogmollies have surrendered only 3 sacks this year, giving Ainge the time he needs to develop from a good QB to a very good one. Jerod Mayo and Rico McCoy might be the league’s best LB duo. At 8th and 9th in the SEC in tackles, they’re both underclassmen and back next year.
  6. South Carolina – The Gamecocks have faded from a possible national title contender to an SEC East has been who could conceivably miss a bowl game altogether. They won’t, with the Spurrier factor and a fan base that will likely travel, but at 6-6 on a 5-game losing streak to end the year, SC isn’t exactly driving bowl scouts nuts right now. Beating Clemson won’t ease the pain this year.
  7. Mississippi State – Thank you, Sylvester Croom, for justifying my year-long campaign to get your team more respect. This team will be bowling, and a win over Arkansas or Ole Miss will cement it. Things get really fun if the Bulldogs can pull the double. Arkansas will be a tough task on senior night in the Rock, but a win over Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl makes this 7-5 season a smashing success.
  8. Alabama – Thank you, Nick Saban, for justifying my year-long campaign to convince the public that your team is mediocre. The Tide is probably on its way to a 7-5, 4-4 season after a likely loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. I’m not dogging Saban; the guy can coach and will have this team in the title game in a few years. But this year the hype machine has been out of control for a team that is ranked 67th nationally in offense and 34th in defense.
  9. Kentucky – The Wildcats came back to earth after a stunning start to the year, but UGA had better not sleep on Woodson & Co. this week in Athens. The UK offense is still the best passing attack in the SEC; luckily, UGA could have similar success through the air – UK has only one d-back with more than one pick, and that’s Trevard Lindley with 2. The pass D is 8th in the league in efficiency and should give Stafford enough time to do what he does.
  10. Arkansas – Don’t get me started on Arkansas. If this team goes 6-6, and it might, with losses to Mississippi State and LSU, it truly does not deserve a bowl bid. ESPN will go nuts if Darren McFadden isn’t in the postseason, but for the one millionth time, here are the ‘Hogs wins to date: Troy, N. Texas, Chattanooga, Ole Miss, FIU and South Carolina. Four non-BCS teams, brutal Ole Miss, and South Carolina. If Arkansas gets to 7 wins, they’ll sneak in. And get beaten.
  11. Vanderbilt – Vandy really could have gotten the UK win Saturday; the Commodores notched 30 first downs, 239 rushing yards and 193 passing yards against no picks. But they did what teams without a history of winning do: failed to make enough big plays down the stretch to beat a slightly better team. Can they snap off a vulnerable Wake Forest squad in the season finale, with a bowl berth on the line?
  12. Ole Miss – No one’s going to be pleased with a 4 win season, but a win over Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl can change the vibe of the entire season. Anthony Dixon is mission #1 for the Ole Miss D, 104th ranked in the nation. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is one of those SEC athletes that gets so overshadowed in this conference, and when he’s gone, people finally realize what an athlete he was.

C-USA Power Rankings: Week 12

  1. TulsaTulsa redefined “answering the bell” with the huge win over Houston, and now only a season finale against Rice stands in between the Golden Hurricane and a West title. This was the Tulsa squad we’ve hoped for all season long, and then some. Given how uneven the team has been all year, it’s remarkable that after all the inconsistency, 10 wins is still in play.
  2. UCF – The Knights are back atop the East courtesy of ECU’s gag in Huntington. Two more wins and UCF is in the C-USA title tilt versus the Golden Hurricane. This week’s road date at SMU shouldn’t be much of a problem; next week’s home date with UTEP might be. You never know what you’re going to get with the Miners; a steady quarterbacking performance by Kyle Israel will be essential.
  3. ECU – This was the ultimate “wha happened??” game of the year. How did the Pirates lose at awful Marshall and cost themselves the the East title in the process? I have no idea, but it was a disastrous performance from a program that might be wearing down from a brutal non-conference schedule early in the year. Greenville’s like a church on Monday right now; after leading the East race almost the whole way, one brutal road outing has them solidly on the outside looking in.
  4. Memphis – If you told me this was only the 8th best team in C-USA, I wouldn’t argue with you. But the Tigers have won close game after close game, getting 4 C-USA wins by 10 total points. So maybe they’re lucky or maybe they’re clutch. Your guess is as good as mine, but with all the other teams in the league prone to choking when they need a win, I’ll take this team in a street fight.
  5. Houston – Maybe we ignored the signs that this team was ready to be beaten. The loss to Tulsa was preceded by a weak outing vs. SMU and a narrow escape at UTEP. Maybe the offensive balance I praised all year really just means the Cougars have no outstanding players. Tulsa obviously did on Saturday. Regardless, the Cougars are still an attractive bowl team, with the 6th best offense nationally.
  6. Southern Miss – The Golden Eagles could sneak in to a bowl with two wins over UTEP and Arkansas State in the next two weeks. As it turns out, the narrow loss to Memphis this week could cost them a shot at the C-USA title. This team is probably closer than any second tier team to being an elite team in the league. 7 turnovers doomed So. Miss against Rice in a 2 point loss earlier in the year; giving up 400 passing yards to Martin Hankins did the trick this week.
  7. Rice – The Owls have a genuine shot at a .500 C-USA record with Tulane coming to Houston this week; that would be a quite a feat, not only because of how bad Rice has been, but really, because of how bad they are this year. The Owls are 100th or worse nationally in the following major categories; total yardage D, scoring D, punting, returns, pass D, sacks allowed, rushing yards. 4 wins will be a major accomplishment.
  8. Marshall – How’d they do it? Marshall stunned East Carolina with a 26-7 upset, ruining the Pirates’ season and giving the Herd something to build on for next year. The offense really isn’t that bad – 7th in the league overall and 5th in passing yards. But in the Herd’s two wins, they’ve won with defense. Holding ECU to 7 and Rice to 21 are both feats that the nation’s 101st ranked D can build on for next year.
  9. Tulane – As long as the Green Wave have competence under center, Matt Forte will carry the team to its share of C-USA wins. That’s what happened Saturday, as Kevin Moore and Anthony Scelfo combined for 16-21 passing for 277 yards and Forte lugged 38 times for 171 yards. David Skehan is looking like he could anchor a decent secondary next season.
  10. UTEP – After only finishing 1 of 3 games in the big homestand, this team mentally checked out and hasn’t been the same since. Maybe they can turn it around back in El Paso against Southern Miss this week. Marcus Thomas and Trevor Vittatoe kept the offense going, but the defense couldn’t stop Matt Forte and UTEP only got 19 points out of 412 yards.
  11. SMU – The Ponies have been close now four straight weeks, but I can’t move them up without the ability to finish in the league. The porous pass defense has killed SMU, despite a decent pass rush (6th in C-USA in sacks) and an offense that has been, at least, competent. Good news: Thomas Morstead is the league’s punter at 44.17 yards per kick.
  12. UAB – The Blazers improved against UCF, but still weren’t close and now close the year with two road games against Memphis and Marshall. This team has fallen so far since playing out of their mind at Mississippi State. After beating Tulane the next week, it’s been 4 losses by a combined 118 points. In a league this balanced, that’s a mark of a team behind the times.

Sunday, November 04, 2007

C-USA Week 11 Power Rankings

  1. East Carolina – The Pirates are an offensive machine, and I’m shocked, quite frankly. Where did this come from? It doesn’t matter who’s playing QB, RB or anywhere: ECU is dropping points left and right on everybody, with five straight 37-plus point performances against C-USA foes. That kind of offensive output isn’t exactly novel in the conference, but when it’s coupled with a defense like ECU’s rush D (3rd in league), the combo is deadly.
  2. Houston – After finishing off SMU despite a lot of Pony moxie Sunday night, the Cougars come to Tulsa next week with the C-USA West lead and the conference’s most balanced offense, by far. If any of you caught tonight’s ESPN telecast, commentator Bill Curry called RB Anthony Aldridge and WR Donnie Avery “one of the most dynamic playmaking duos in the history of the NCAA.” Really? Wow. They’re good, but, Bill….come on….
  3. UCF – Down half a game plus a tiebreak to ECU, the Knights need a Pirate loss to either Marshall or Tulane to keep their title hopes alive. Even if they don’t make the C-USA title tilt, the resurgence of football in Orlando might make UCF an attractive bowl option with 8 wins. With UAB, SMU and UTEP on deck, I’d be shocked if UCF doesn’t get to at least 8-4.
  4. TulsaTulsa got a solid win over a C-USA foe for the first time in forever, and with the UTEP loss to Rice, the Golden Hurricane will win the West by beating Houston and the Owls. Houston’s supremely balanced offense will test Tulsa’s struggling defense, which ranks in the bottom 20 nationally against both rush and pass. Still, the solid performance this weekend against Matt Forte has to encourage TU fans.
  5. Southern Miss – The Golden Eagles have been all over the map this season, but can still win the East if they get in to a tiebreaker with ECU, who they beat way back on September 15th. If So. Miss gets to 7-4 by beating Memphis and UTEP, an intriguing cross-conference season ender with Arkansas State could make the difference between bowl game or bust.
  6. Memphis – Martin Hankins threw 60 passes this weekend against ECU, and even though Hankins continues to impress, there’s no chance Memphis will win any more games if he’s throwing that often. The Tigers need more from Joseph Doss on the ground, where he’s only given Memphis more than 50 yards once since September 1st. The O-Line continues to excel, allowing Memphis QBs to be sacked just 1.11 times per game, but the D-Line is getting pushed around, better than only one other C-USA team in sacks and TFL.
  7. Tulane – I can’t believe I’m ranking this 2-7 team 7th, especially since they’ve lost so many close games. But the five below teams have looked incredibly poor at so many times on the year, and the Wave have always looked at least competent. I would be more alarmed at Tulane’s 111th ranked pass D, but maybe I shouldn’t be – the conference has 5 teams in the bottom 9 nationally.
  8. Rice – Let’s try to not get crazy here, but the Owls are 2 wins from a .500 C-USA campaign, which would be a nice achievement considering how bad this program has been lately. SMU is a dead duck this season, so Rice should be 3-3 with home dates against Tulane and Tulsa. Can Brian Raines, Scott Solomon and the big boys up front keep a lid on Matt Forte and get win #4?
  9. UTEP – This may be a bit low for the Miners, who probably won’t win or lose a game by more than 7 the rest of the year, but my gut tells me that after letting the West lead slip away in a three game home stand against the league’s best, the Miners are mentally done for the year. How else do you explain the outing against Rice, where the Miners gave up 56 points, 550 yards and 26 first downs to what is still the league’s 11th best offense?
  10. Marshall – Somehow, the Herd is two rungs off the floor despite having just one win on the season. This is more a function of SMU and UAB futility
  11. SMU – Perhaps reports of the Ponies’ demise were greatly exaggerated by yours truly. Four of SMU’s last five losses have come by 10 or less, but nonetheless, Phil Bennett is still gone at season’s end. If Justin Willis can cut down on the INTs (14:11 TD:INT ratio), he could join the league’s elite QBs next season.
  12. UAB – The Blazers have been the walking dead since beating Tulane, losing their last three by a total tally of 127-23. That’s horrendous in a league that boasts close games every single week. The UAB offense can’t do anything, converting just 4 of 17 possession downs, and getting no more than 38 rushing yards from one player. Yow. Things are bad when you’re ranked below SMU and almost certain to be a dog to Marshall in the season finale.

MAC Power Rankings: Week 11

  1. Central Michigan – The Chips’ ticket for Detroit is all but punched, as CMU needs to win just one of the in-state clashes against WMU and EMU to advance to the title tilt. Both clashes should be emotional, but with the way Central has rolled conference opponents this year, I don’t see them losing both. So the question is: how good can they be the rest of the year, and who will be the opponent in Detroit? The defense still ranks 114th nationally in yards and 113th nationally in scoring; can they hone the attack in preparation for a title run?
  2. Ball State – The Cardinals went for the Big Ten over the last two weeks, a disappointment to many in the MAC still hoping the league would accrue one signature non-conference victory this year. Still, the Cardinals should finish 7-5 with wins over Toledo and NIU. Ball State has been great at protecting the football this year (7th nationally in turnover margin), and will make an enticing bowl participant if the International or GMAC bowls pick them up.
  3. Miami – I’ve seen the Redhawks in person three times this year, and every time, they’ve won intense, down-to-the wire battles with defense. This week, the Redhawk D stuffed Buffalo with the MAC East on the line, and now two more wins will give the ‘Hawks a division title. Daniel Raudabaugh’s passes have more zip on them every time I come to town, and the D deserves a lot of credit for stuffing James Starks after the initial 92-yard run.
  4. Buffalo – So close. The Bulls were three points away from locking up the MAC East for all intents and purposes, but came up just short with a valiant effort at Oxford. The defense wasn’t quite tough enough to contain Miami on the edges, but the Bulls never quit, getting 10 points in the last 34 seconds of the first half, and almost pulling it out at the end. Naaman Roosevelt is going to be a big, big-time player.
  5. Ohio – My trip to Athens this weekend came just as Ohio is peaking, and I think I’ve got a scenario figured out that would still bring the East title to The Plains. Either way, the Bobcats are running and stopping the run better now, and might get a chance to play spoiler on the season’s final weekend against Miami. Kalvin McRae is third in the MAC in rushing yards, but leads the league in hilarious facial expressions.
  6. Bowling Green – The Falcons are still the league’s most mercurial team, sandwiching brutal losses to Miami and Ohio between convincing wins over Kent, Akron and Temple. The BGSU secondary hasn’t gotten much league-wide attention, but sophomore P.J. Mahone is 4th nationally with 6 INT, and the unit is 2nd in the MAC against the pass.
  7. Toledo – Offensively, the Rockets haven’t been held under 28 points since September 15th against now #4 Kansas. So, they should be a MAC leader, right? Well, the defense hasn’t met a missed tackle it didn’t like, and no one in the Glass City has heard the term “coverage sack” since 2006. 115th nationally in sacks (with 9), and 118th in TFL (with an awful 4.2 per game), the Rockets need to create negative plays to win this week at Ball State.
  8. Eastern Michigan – Jeff Genyk is making baby steps with the EMU program, but are they coming quickly enough? The defense is a solid unit, but just got bombed over and over again by Toledo this weekend en route to surrendering 52 points. How do these things happen, just 7 days after the unit holds WMU to a 2-point safety? You got me.
  9. Western Michigan – Although I’d vote for Kent State, a lot of MAC observers would say the Broncos are this year’s biggest disappointment. That can all change if Western beats Central to kick off a three-game run that culminates in a MAC West title. To do it, they’ll need to beat Central, have EMU beat Central, and hope that Ball State loses twice. In the words of Jerry Seinfeld, “good luck with allll……that.”
  10. Temple – The Owl D kept Temple in it Friday night at Peden, but the offense misses QB Adam DiMichele. With Penn State coming to town this weekend, the chance of going .500 is almost 0. For my money, Temple needs to beat either Kent State or WMU in the season’s final two weeks to cement all the momentum it built up this year over the offseason.
  11. Akron – You get the feeling the Zips have never quite recovered from their little two-game roller coaster on which they won and lost a game in the final seconds. Carlton Jackson and Chris Jacquemain might consider these last three games an audition for next year’s starting job; hopefully for Akron, one of the two steps up and wins the job. QB by committee hasn’t worked this year.
  12. Kent State – After an impressive debut against CMU, let’s see how freshman Giorgio Martin improves with the help of a bye week before facing NIU this weekend. Kicker Nate Reed has been a bright spot, with 15 of 20 FGs on the year.
  13. Northern Illinois – Larry English really should get some serious consideration for MAC defensive player of the year. English has 8 of NIU’s 13 sacks; imagine what he’d be able to accomplish on a team with other defensive weapons that demanded attention. Not only has the rest of the Huskie pass rush been non-existent, but the entire D only has 6 picks in 9 games. NIU’s offense can occasionally move the ball behind Justin Anderson, but they don’t get big plays; that kind of handicap demands a turnover hungry defense.

SEC Power Rankings: Week Eleven

  1. Auburn – I’m going to go out on a limb here. Yeah, yeah, Auburn lost to LSU on a last-second play on LSU’s home field two weeks ago. I know that. But these rankings represent which squad would win on a neutral field if they played now, and how can anyone argue against Auburn? The defense has been absolutely lights out, and with as weak as LSU’s D has been lately, you’d have to think they’d stand a good chance to reverse the 6 point loss on LSU’s turf.
  2. LSU – The Tigers cling to BCS title game hopes, but with Arkansas and the East winner waiting in the title game, it won’t be easy. Furthermore, the defense has been very substandard the last few weeks. Get this: after giving up 32 total points in the first five weeks, LSU hasn’t held an opponent below 24 for the last four games. LSU will be a fine representative for the SEC wherever it goes, but with Ohio State, Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Boston College looking very good, I’m no longer convinced this is one of the nation’s best two teams.
  3. Georgia – The Bulldogs got a bit of a scare from Troy, but no matter. The Trojans are a very capable Sun Belt squad which had a lot to play for, and Georgia survived. I think UT is going to lose again, so if UGA beats Auburn and UK, they’ll win the East. But the pass D has to be better: at 10th in the SEC in efficiency defense, UK’s efficiency captain Andre Woodson could give them fits.
  4. Florida – The Gators are still fighting, but three losses means 2007 is a letdown, and the best plan now is to continue to experiment with schemes that work offensively while taking pressure off Tim Tebow to do it all. Vanderbilt didn’t pose much of a threat, but getting 100 yards from two running backs helped Tebow survive.
  5. Alabama – I guess I finally have to give the Tide credit, after a solid performance that saw them give LSU a game that should have been at least headed to overtime before a John Parker Wilson fumble in the final minutes. The future is bright with Terry Grant in the backfield; Wallace Gilberry has turned in to quite the sack machine, with seven QB sacks in his last 4 games.
  6. Tennessee – The Vols are typically mercurial this year, with major disappointments against Cal, Florida and Alabama sandwiched around super-impressive wins against Georgia and South Carolina. Which Vols show up this Saturday against Arkansas? With the 74th ranked rush defense in the nation preparing to face the law firm of McFadden & Jones, UT fans better hope Good Vols leave Bad Vols at home.
  7. Arkansas – The Hogs finally got a big-time BCS win by putting up a ton of points against South Carolina and kickstarting what they hope is a late season Heisman run by Run DMC. Let’s see now how the Razorbacks perform as road warriors in Knoxville this week against the nation’s 74th ranked rush D. Too bad the Arkansas offense lives in the pre-forward pass stone age; UT’s 84th ranked pass D is pretty bad, too.
  8. South Carolina – The Gamecocks’ early season flirtation with BCS glory is over, and so are their SEC title hopes. I can’t really prove causality here, but the ‘Cocks have really struggled since Spurrier showed the quick hook with freshman QB Chris Smelley. SC is now 6-4, and with Florida and Clemson up ahead, it is conceivable, don’t laugh, that the Gamecocks could miss a bowl game altogether. That would get the chicken coop crowing.
  9. Mississippi State – The Bulldogs got a well-deserved week of rest after the big win at Kentucky, and now lie in wait for Alabama. The offense, especially the passing game, is still pretty bad, ranking at 113th nationally. However, with two weeks to prepare for a ‘Bama squad coming off its biggest game of the year, MSU has a great chance to pull off a program-defining upset to get bowl eligible.
  10. Kentucky – All of Lexington feels like a church on Monday now, just three weeks removed from being the talk of college football after the LSU game, the ‘Cats have a losing SEC record and it’s officially basketball season. Still, with three winnable games on the schedule (Vandy, UGA and Tennessee), and an underrated pass D (20th nationally), Kentucky still could sneak their way to New Year’s Day with a 9-3 record and a hungry fan base.
  11. Vanderbilt – The Commodores had hopes of catching UF napping Saturday, but those dreams went bye-bye pretty quickly, and Vandy got routed by 27. At 5-4, the Commodores need one more win to go bowling, and if it comes in the SEC, they’re in for sure. I’m not sure how many receivers in SEC history have caught for 800 yards and 70 catches four straight years, but junior Earl Bennett is already on that pace for the third straight year.
  12. Ole Miss – The Rebs take up the cellar for the umpteenth week in a row, and the offense, which had been a bright spot for awhile, has only scored 11 total points in its last 2 SEC games. Greg Hardy has 10 sacks in 10 games. Well done, sir.

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

C-USA Power Rankings: Week Ten

For the first time in a long time, we had a week without a bunch of movement among the top dogs. We’re one week closer to the finish line, though, so how will each team respond to the challenges in front of it?

Let’s take a look at how they’d stack up on a neutral field tomorrow:

1. East Carolina – The Pirates have been on top of the ladder for what seems like so long now, their feet ought to be checked for numbness. Any concerns that the NC State loss would wreck ECU’s confidence quickly eroded with the Pirates’ spanking of UAB. When you beat a team by 35, there are plenty of heroes, but Quentin Cotton was a beast on defense, nailing Blazer backs in the backfield three times. I’m still amazed that a team who looks so incredibly mediocre on paper is this solid on the field. But ECU leads the C-USA in one extremely important category: turnover margin.

2. Houston – Last month’s 37-35 loss to the Pirates looks more and more like a title game preview, with the Cougars 4-1 and getting dead beats SMU and Marshall at home in November. Ah, but wait – don’t forget Tulsa, who makes a last stand for the West title with a home date Houston next weekend. Unfortunately for the Golden Hurricane, their greatest strength is the Cougars’ as well. Houston’s 36th ranked pass defense is tops in the league, as is their total D, scoring D, rush O and scoring O.

3. UCF – Exxon Valdez-like ink has been spilled over the Golden Knights’ offense and RB Kevin Smith. So what’s left to say? The defensive front has stepped up in an unheralded role, and the Leger Douzable unit has UCF third in the league in sacks. DB Sha’reff Rashad looks like he might be regaining his form of last season, when he had 4 picks. Rashad has two in the last two games.

4. UTEP – The big homestand ended with a thud as the Miners lost 34-31 to Houston Saturday, effectively ending their inside track to the West title. Down a game and a half plus tiebreaker to the Cougs, and with three of four road dates to end the year, the Miners have awfully long heads of winning the division. Marcus Thomas is yet another top-flight C-USA back, but the nation’s 117th ranked pass defense hasn’t stopped anyone all year; it certainly won’t start doing so this week at Rice.

5. Tulsa – The boys from Oklahoma are C-USA’s best, last line of defense against an ECU/Houston title tilt, and you’d better believe that when Houston comes to town in two weeks, Tulsa will defend any chance they’ve got left like the Alamo. It was nice to see senior Chris Chamberlain post a 14-tackle game against SMU, and Chamberlain is just a few stops away from 250 career tackles now. Tulsa is a maddening outfit; they seem to boast so much potential, but have struggled against the better teams and beaten the C-USA’s bottom feeders by the skin of their collective teeth.

6. Memphis – The dark horse in all the title talk is Memphis, who is now getting some nifty QB play from Martin Hankins to go with a Jake Kasser-led defense that forces turnovers. Can the Tigers give ECU a run for its money this weekend? Vegas has made ECU a mere 5-point favorite, which might mean the upset is in the offing. Hankins is getting great protection from an offensive line allowing just 1 sack per game.

7. Southern Miss – The Golden Eagles had a big chance to make a statement Sunday against UCF, but didn’t, and now it’s a short week of prep for UAB, a team So. Miss should beat, but might not, given their recent history of struggling with weaker clubs. Like almost everyone else, the Eagles couldn’t slow Kevin Smith. Props to some defensive standouts: Martavius Prince still leads the C-USA in sacks, with 6.5, and Gerald McRate is the nation’s leading tackler, at 12.88 per game.

8. UAB – Halloween came early to Birmingham as UAB put up a frightful performance in the 41-6 loss to ECU. The Blazers haven’t been close at all in their last two outings against the C-USA big boys; will an extra day’s rest give them an edge over Southern Miss? Regardless how fresh the legs are, they’ve got to throw better. UAB’s just 116th nationally in pass efficiency, and Sam Hunt’s TD:INT ratio of 8:10 has been brutal.

9. Tulane – This team just cannot finish close games. Tulane is literally three plays from being 5-3 and in the hunt for a bowl bid, but has given up scores with 36 seconds left and no time left to lose two close ones, and couldn’t finish against UAB in a game it should have won. If the Wave were leading the East and headed for a bowl bid, Matt Forte would have a real shot to make it to New York as a Heisman finalist, but as is, he’ll be just another colorful story of the 2007 season.

10. Marshall – We are Marshall! Somehow, the Herd exploded in to the win column with a thunderous 34-21 win over Rice Saturday night in Huntington. Bernie Morris threw for 227 and ran for another 120 as Marshall jumped to a 17-0 lead at the half. C.J. Spillman, James Johnson and Maurice Kitchens all had at least 9 tackles in a solid all-around effort from the embattled D. Let’s enjoy this while it lasts, Marshall fans: UCF, ECU and Houston are next.

11. Rice – The Rice Owls, spreading wins to all corners of the globe. Rice did Saturday what no team has found a way to do since 2006, and drove Marshall straight in to victory lane with a stinker of a performance on the road. Let’s play a game: you tell me which of these stats is more shocking. A. Rice’s leading rusher, C.J. Ugokwe, averages 28 yards per game, B. Rice is 118th or worse in the nation in 4 of the 5 major defensive statistical categories, or C. statistically, Rice looks about like Notre Dame?

12. SMU – The Ponies are coach-huntin’ after Phil Bennett got the old heave ho this week, and it’ll be hard to replace his…OK, maybe it won’t be that hard to replace Bennett. But for now, the team is in disarray, despite really not being that bad so far in the C-USA. Sure, the record is 0-4, but that’s two OT losses and a last minute Tulsa TD we’re talking about. However, that’s all immaterial now. 1-7 teams don’t replace their coach if the season ain’t over.

Monday, October 29, 2007

SEC Power Rankings: Week Ten

In the West, LSU can effectively wrap it up with a win at ‘Bama this week. On the east side, Tennessee and Georgia are neck and neck with the Vols holding the tiebreaking head-to-head win. How do they all stack up on a neutral field? Let’s check it out.

  1. LSU – The Tigers coast in to T-Town this Saturday, and hopefully their pulses have slowed after three consecutive down to the wire battles. LSU is an 8-point favorite at ‘Bama, and the defense has a lot at stake, after getting violated in three straight outings. They’ve lost their #1 spot in the nation’s rankings; don’t expect them to lose their top spot in the SEC East.
  2. Auburn – This Tiger D is easily a top-5 unit right now; after a slow start, Auburn’s stoppers are 8th nationally in yards and 9th in scoring. Watching them feast on Ole Miss this Saturday was like…well…watching a Tiger feast on an old rebel with a huge moustache. Raise your hand if you can’t wait for Auburn to visit Sanford.
  3. Georgia – The Bulldogs got a season-turning win over Florida Saturday in the Cocktail Party, and now it’s home for at three-game Sanford Stand before the season ender in Atlanta. Knowshon Moreno might finally get the national press he deserves after the huge outing vs. the Gators, and let’s hope he stays healthy. The depth chart looks bleak below the freshman sensation.
  4. Florida – Despite all the talent, what’s obvious now is that Florida has some big holes on defense and lacks the overall talent to fend off teams that are lying in wait. November 10th’s Spurrier Bowl is an elimination game in the East; do the Gators have the horses to handle the Gamecocks? Taking the nation’s 87th best pass defense in to Columbia is a big no-no.
  5. Alabama – Nick Saban: time to earn your keep. This weekend’s clash against LSU is the kind of game that ‘Bama fans are paying their multi-gazillion dollar coach to win. The Tide will need a very special effort to move the ball against a rested and hungry LSU defense. LSU’s weakness is their poor protection of Matt Flynn. At just 10th in the SEC in sacks, ‘Bama may not be able to capitalize.
  6. Tennessee – The Vols crack me up. Tennessee’s squeaker win over South Carolina was a classic example of why some folks in college football are absolutely insane. After UT got two chances on a last-minute field goal, and then SC’s Ryan Succop missed his try at glory, Philip Fulmer pounded his chest in a post game presser, saying: “Everybody who thought our season was over just doesn’t know what Tennessee football is all about.” If either of those two unlikely events don’t happen in the final seconds, both of which were totally out of his control, Fulmer might be getting a pink slip.
  7. South Carolina – The shine is off the Gamecocks a little bit, now that the Kentucky win doesn’t look so great and the offensive struggles at LSU look even worse. Seems like Blake Mitchell is back at QB…for now. Mitchell tossed for 290 at Knoxville, but this is Steve Spurrier and his gnat-like attention span we’re talking about. Chris Smelley better keep the helmet on. After the 14-catch, 151-yard game at UT, maybe Kenny McKinley will get some of the great press he deserves.
  8. Mississippi State – MSU got a landmark win over Kentucky Saturday, and now the Bulldogs are a win away from going bowling. I’ve beat the Sylvester Croom drum all year long, and the Bulldogs finally put it all together at Commonwealth Stadium, soundly beating a UK team that beat LSU just two weeks ago. Could this team go 8-4? Probably not, but with two weeks to prepare for Alabama, and then Arkansas and Ole Miss, the bar should definitely be set at 7-5.
  9. Kentucky – The ‘Cats have fallen hard and fast after beating LSU just two weeks ago. Andre Woodson won’t be going to New York, and the rush D is still getting handled, giving up 190+ rush yards a game (11th in SEC). Sometimes you don’t realize until a team loses a guy just how valuable he was. Woodson has gotten all the hype, but UK’s offense struggled with Rafael Little. The defense is now 11th in the conference in scoring, and 5th in the East is looking very likely.
  10. Arkansas – I’m sorry, but I’m singing the same tune with the Hawgs week after week. When will they beat a BCS team? Here are the five wins so far: Troy, N. Texas, Chattanooga, FIU and Ole Miss. This late in the year, when so many other teams have played the teeth of their schedules, this disparity renders Arkansas’ stats almost meaningless. All we have to go on is DMac’s highlight reel and the hope that maybe, just maybe, the weak schedule has Arkansas more rested than its upcoming opponents, South Carolina and Tennessee.
  11. Vanderbilt – The Vandy D is an unheralded unit, led by senior LBs Jonathan Goff and Marcus Buggs. The unit is 14th nationally in yards allowed, and continues to pick up an offense that has been plum awful at 105th nationally in yards and 111th in passing yards. Despite the big win over SC two weeks ago, the ‘Dores lineup with Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee the next three weeks, before getting Wake Forest at, in all likelihood, 5-6. The nation will be sick of the SEC, but if Vandy gets one more conference win and then plays Wake tough, they’ll deserve a bowl bid.
  12. Ole Miss – And, trailing the pack by 25 lengths: the Rebs. At 12th in the SEC in the following categories: rush O, scoring O, rush D, total D, punting, punt returns and turnover margin, and without even the future to look forward to (Ben Jarvus Green Ellis and Seth Green are both seniors), Kinko’s may be expecting a work order for resume printing from head coach Ed Orgeron and his staff very soon.