Champs Sports Bowl Preview & Prediction

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL – Dec. 28^th, 5:00 EST

Boston College vs. Michigan State –

Despite boasting different records, the Eagles and Spartans followed similar trajectories in 2007. MSU burst out of the gates 4-0, making the Mark Dantonio hire look like one of the most astute personnel moves of the offseason. But then came OT losses at Northwestern and Iowa and heartbreakers to Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State in a 6 game span. The second-half swoon ended with clutch wins over Purdue and Penn State, but everything State did so well in the first half of the year (rush the passer, run the football) began tailing off and never fully recovered. In New England, BC was ranked #2 in the land, and people were touting Matt Ryan as the next great NFL QB, despite his weak pass efficiency rating, mired in the 40s nationally most of the year. Then BC came to Blacksburg, and even though the Eagles escaped with a 14-10 win, they didn’t catch their collective breath until three weeks later, after two devastating losses to Florida State and Maryland. And even though Tech didn’t get the win at home, it finished the job in December that it started in October, rolling to the ACC crown and giving BC its third loss.

Even though this contest hasn’t been talked about much nationally, it strikes me as one of the most intriguing bowl matchups of the season. Each team’s strength plays at the other squad’s strength. Michigan State started the year with the fiercest pass rush in the nation, and even though they’ve since dropped to 12^th nationally in sacks, but getting in to opponents’ backfields is still a priority and skill for the Spartan D. On the other side, BC’s front line was the ACC’s best at protecting its QB this year, allowing 1.46 sacks a game, tops in the conference. Flip the units, and you’ve got BC’s top-ranked national rush D taking on the MSU ground game, which was 23^rd in the country, and features Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, two of the Big Ten’s top 9 runners.

I picked Michigan State before the bowl season started, but with key components Jonal Saint-Dic, SirDarean Adams and Terry Love left in East Lansing thanks to rules violations, I’ve got to take Boston College. Closer than some think, but a win for the ACC. BC 28, Michigan State 20.

Big Ten Review: Week 8

Another critical week in Big Ten action left a few would-be contenders by the wayside, and gave the nation’s number one team a bit of a scare. Let’s break it down, in order of how much fun these games were to watch:

Game of the Week:

Penn State 36, Indiana 31 – Penn State got one I didn’t expect them to get, knocking off a pesky Indiana squad that really could have and should have won this game. The Hoosiers and Lions were an even match in yardage (387-386) and first downs (25-up), but Indiana couldn’t overcome killer fumbles. Kellen Lewis is quite an athlete, he really is, but he’s not a big-time winner yet because he’s shown an inability to rise to a moment. Case in point: Lewis ripped off a 56-yard touchdown run to bring Indy within 5 with three minutes to play. After the Hoosier D helped get the ball back, Lewis fumbled at his own 29, ending the comeback hope. With Illinois tagged for two Big Ten losses, it looks like the Nittany Lions have the inside track on a 3^rd place finish.

Best of the Rest:

Ohio State 24, Michigan State 17 – Looked like we might have a rout on our hands, eh? This isn’t the John L. Smith edition Spartans, folks. Down 24-zip late in the third, Michigan State raised the collective blood pressure of the state of Ohio with two, count ‘em, two defensive returns for touchdowns in a span of just 56 seconds. MSU closed to 24-14 just like that, but only got three points from two final possessions as the OSU offense was able to run the ball and milk clock despite not reaching paydirt again. This was closer than a lot of people expected, but let’s not sound the alarms just yet – the Spartans deserve credit for showing some moxie, but the Buckeye defense still held them to 3 points, 180 yards and 9 first downs. If offenses can’t score on Ohio State, they can’t beat them.

Ho Hum:

Northwestern 26, Eastern Michigan 14 – Let’s just squint and pretend Northwestern got a road win over the Detroit Lions. OK, not really, but the Wildcats did win on the Lions’ home turf, beating EMU in the Eagles’ once-a-year game at Ford Field. This game was one of those where you’re really not sure if Eastern gagged it away or Northwestern sacked up when it needed to be tough. The ‘Cats forced four turnovers inside their own 10-yard line as Eastern showed why, despite making improvements on both sides of the ball, the Eagles can’t break out of the MAC West cellar. I’m not sure if I tolerated this game because it was mildly entertaining or because it aired on Friday night. Probably better not to ask too many questions.

North Dakota State 27, Minnesota 21 – Don’t pretend you didn’t know it was coming, Part One. The Bison have been blowing people up all year, including Central Michigan, a way better squad than the Gophers, who ND State beat by 30! So it shouldn’t have shocked anyone that North Dakota State, now the proud owners of Division I’s longest win streak, outgained Minny by almost three hundred yards and ten first downs. The only thing that surprised me, honestly, was that the Bison didn’t win by more. ND State got 263 yards rushing from Tyler Roehl while about 30 thousand of their fans cheered in the Metrodome. I keep thinking back to how impressive Tim Brewster was at Big Ten Media Day; dude needs to pull a David Copperfield with this defense, and fast.

Boooooooooooooring

Wisconsin 44, Northern Illinois 3 – Don’t pretend you didn’t know it was coming, Part 2. On, Wisconsin. To a meaningless rout over the Mid-American Conference’s worst football team, and its second-string, sophomore quarterback. This is how the recent Wisconsin myth was built, folks – on the backs of wins that look better on paper than in reality and with a few close, clutch wins in Big Ten crunch time. We all knew this would happen – the Badgers would come home needing an ego boost after two crushing losses on the road; they’d bruise an undersized, outmanned opponent just like they should, and then they’d blow up the scoreboard until they felt better about themselves. Donovan threw for 91, Hill ran for 184. Blah, blah, blah. With Indiana, Ohio State and Michigan up next, the Badgers might not win again until Nov. 17^th at Minnesota.

Purdue 31, Iowa 6 – Don’t pretend you didn’t know it was coming, Part 3. The Iowa defense, gutsy through they are, can’t handle the spread-out passing attack. They can’t. They showed that against Indiana, showed it in stints against Iowa State, and showed it big time in West Lafayette against the Boilers. Purdue didn’t get fancy, they just did what they knew they could do to win, grinding out 29 first downs with 315 passing yards and getting 65+ rushing yards from both Sheets and Taylor. I’m sorry that you lost to the Big Ten’s 10^th best team, Illini fans, but the Hawk D is built for an attack like Illinois’ and, at this point, not much else.

Big Ten Preview: Week 8

Only four Big Ten games this week, with Northwestern and Wisconsin getting visits from the MAC, and Minnesota taking on a dangerous FCS foe. Leaving the Illinois game once again to Jeff, let’s take a look at what else is on tap this weekend, in the order of how much I’m looking forward to watching them:

Game of the Week:

Iowa at Purdue – If the Hawks can get a win at West Lafayette, these two teams will be like ships passing in the night; Iowa resurrecting a season after a terrible start, Purdue falling further and further into oblivion after a sparkling 5-0 bow. The Hawks D was cash money against the Illini last week, limiting the multi-pronged Illinois attack to just 6 points, quite a feat for a D that had been savaged by Indiana the week before. But here’s the thing about Iowa; the secondary isn’t very good and you’ve got to beat them through the air. This plays right in to the hands of Purdue, a battered bunch that will zing it all around the field on the arm of Curtis Painter. The Boilers have the perfect scheme to beat Iowa, and here’s saying they will: big time. Purdue 38, Iowa 17.

Best of the Rest:

Penn State at Indiana – Here’s another clash between squads that, based on last week at least, feel headed in opposite directions. The Hoosiers got power bombed by 25 in East Lansing, while Penn State piled on the suddenly limping Badgers. The loss at MSU wasn’t startling just for the margin, but for how it went down. Indy only had the ball for 18 minutes of the game, and netted just 22 ground yards in 17 carries. Penn State’s run D contained P.J. Hill pretty nicely this past weekend, so don’t think they’ll be terrified at the thought of Indiana’s running game. But the pass D is a little more vulnerable, kind of an Iowa D on steroids. In Happy Valley, this is an easy call, but in Bloomington, I expect a game much closer. PSU hasn’t won on the road this year, and I don’t think they’ll break the streak Saturday. Indiana 24, Penn State 17.

Michigan State at Ohio State – The Spartans got back to good with a thrashing of Indiana last weekend, and Ohio State hasn’t been anything but good all year. The D has more punts forced than punts allowed, and the Horseshoe crowd is going to be more than ready to welcome the nation’s newly-minted top ranked squad. Javon Ringer is emerging as a major player in the Big Ten player of the year race, and at 7^th in the nation in rushing, just a little behind Mike Hart. MSU will not be scared heading to the ‘Shoe, and if Brian Hoyer can remain as efficient as he was against Indiana (20 of 23 completions), MSU can have a chance to be in this game until really late. The OSU defense will have other ideas, however, as the great Buckeye linebackers are fast enough to contain Ringer and big enough to pound Jehuu Caulcrick. This one will be closer than people think, but the Buckeyes will prevail. Ohio State 28, Michigan State 20.

North Dakota State at Minnesota – This North Dakota State squad is a dangerous bunch, having already raked a decent Central Michigan team over the coals in September, and unbeaten on the season. NDSU has won their last ten games, and beating Minnesota would be yet another feather in their cap this year. Who knows how the Gophers are going to respond to last week’s heartbreaking finish at Northwestern, but the Bison are a disciplined group that will punish mental mistakes. Minnesota’s clocking in at 118^th in turnover margin, at an atrocious -2.14 per game. They’re also dead last in total D, pass D and 114^th nationally in scoring D. The Gophers are the kind of squad NDSU eats for lunch, so don’t think Minny is getting healthy this weekend. North Dakota State 38, Minnesota 20.

Ho Hum

Eastern Michigan at Northwestern – The Eagles come to Evanston with only one FBS win, over MAC West rival Northern Illinois. EMU has two of the MAC’s best five defensive players in LB Daniel Holtzclaw and DE Jason Jones. Holtzclaw is 6^th in the MAC in tackles, and is a classic sideline to sideline linebacker. Jones has an undeniable knack for attacking opposing backfields, averaging 2 TFL per game. This is a dangerous, trap-type game for the Wildcats, who have a way of turning opposing QBs in to superstars. You’re a smarter sportswriter than me if you can figure out where EMU QB Andy Schmitt’s 20-28, 210 yard, 4 score outing against Ohio came from. I think the Eagles can keep it close in Evanston, but Northwestern pulls out another close one. Northwestern 41, Eastern Michigan 31.

Boooooooooring

Northern Illinois at Wisconsin – Forget what you think you knew about the Badgers preseason. Forget the hype, forget the winning streak carrying over from last year. Forget all that. And look at what they’ve done on the field. Based on what we’ve seen this year, Wisconsin is maybe, maybe the conference’s 6^th best team, with a stat sheet about as unimpressive as can be for a squad that started the year in everybody’s top ten. The Badgers are 60^th nationally in scoring, 60^th in scoring D, 95^th in TFL, 97^th in turnover margin. The list continues; you get the idea. Here’s my prediction for this game: after the Wisconsin D lights up a Northern offense with only one viable option (RB Justin Anderson) and does a number on their backup QB (sophomore Ryan Morris, starting in place of vet Dan Nicholson), folks will be saying Wisconsin is back. Don’t listen. Wisconsin 41, Northern Illinois 10.

Big Ten Review: Week 7

With Illinois’ disappointing loss now 48 hours in the rear view mirror, here’s a rundown of what happened in the rest of the conference this week:

Game of the Week:

Northwestern 49, Minnesota 48 – The Gophers probably lead the nation in “games of the week” for a team that is now 1-6. Separated by just 2 first downs (N28, M26), 9 total yards (N589, M580) and one point, the Wildcats and Gophers played to the death in a 97-point battle that knocked Minnesota from bowl eligibility and kept Northwestern’s fledging hopes alive. Northwestern scored regulation’s last 21 points, including a 4 yard pass from C.J. Bacher to Eric Peterman with 8 seconds remaining. After Minnesota’s touchdown in the second OT, the Gophers went for two, but Adam Weber’s pass fell incomplete, the ‘Cats averted the upset. Minnesota continues to be the nation’s biggest Can’t Change the Channel team. By my count, starting with the beginning of the fourth quarter, the scoreboard in Gophers games this year reads: Minnesota 99, Opponents 90. That’s an average of 15.6 – 15 after the third quarter gun, although I may be wrong – the big numbers are making my brain dizzy.

Best of the Rest:

Uh, none of the other four games were closer than 25 points.

Ho Hum:

Michigan State 52, Indiana 27 – The Spartans made a statement with a pounding of Indiana that will be a key piece of the mid-tier Big Ten puzzle by year’s end. MSU absolutely bloodied the Hoosiers, using their killer tandem of RBs, Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, to rack up 368 yards on the ground. Ringer is emerging as a bonafide Big Ten superstar, with four straight games of 144 yards or more. Brian Hoyer also had an extremely efficient day under center, going 20-23 for 190 yards and a score. On the Indiana side, this was a lame duck effort. 22 yards rushing? 9 first downs? 1 3^rd down conversion? 18 minutes of possession? Yikes.

Boooooooooooring:

Michigan 48, Purdue 21 – Ladies and gentlemen, the Purdue Boilermakers! In two weeks, Purdue has seen this season go the way of so many others, with a 5-0 start all for naught after getting ripped by two physical teams in Michigan and OSU. The spread throwing game got some yards, but Purdue’s inability to run on the Michigan D (39 yards on 25 tries) stopped it from moving the chains, and sealed the Boilers’ fate. Mike Hart got dinged, but did cross the 100-yard plateau again and kept himself right on track for an invite to the Downtown Athletic Club as a Heisman finalist. This game was 48-7 with ten minutes to go; who knows how long it will take Purdue to get back on track after seeing so much promise squandered yet again.

Ohio State 48, Kent State 3 – The Bucks did what we expected them to, forcing 8 punts and surrendering 3 points, maintaining their season status quo (65 punts forced, 48 points given up). OSU is now the nation’s top ranked team, and you can’t convince me its unwarranted. Sure, last year’s title game is whispering caution in the back of my head, but this OSU bunch is outscoring opponents by 35.7-6.6 ppg, and even though almost no one they’ve played can stop anybody, Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern and even Kent State can score a few points. No one but Washington has gotten more than a touchdown, and the Huskies got their second score with under a minute to go.

Penn State 38, Wisconsin 7 – Boy, the Badgers have fallen fast and hard, going from possessing the nation’s longest win streak to a Big Ten also ran in just two weeks. The Badgers got a fairly inflated 12 wins in 2006, but this year’s squad is different; they don’t get big stops, and they give up way too many ground yards. Penn State churned out a balanced-as-heck 216 passing yards against 221 rushing yards and the offense showed no signs of missing Austin Scott, with Rodney Kinlaw rushing for 115 behind a nice outing by the offensive line. P.J. Hill never really got on track for Wisconsin, and Tyler Donovan certainly couldn’t carry the load by himself, tossing two costly picks.

Big Ten Preview: Week Seven

The Illini head west to Iowa City for a battle with the wounded Hawkeyes. Jeff will handle that matchup, but let’s take a look at the rest of the conference action, in order of how much I’m looking forward to watching:

Game of the Week:
Wisconsin at Penn State - One of these programs’ seasons is about to completely tank, and another’s is about to be salvaged. Who’s who? The answer will likely depend on Wisconsin’s ability to throw the ball. QB Tyler Donovan has been efficient, for the most part (103-171, 1400 yds), but lately has run in to a bit of an interception bug. With 5 in the last three games, Donovan has hurt the Badger offense with turnovers, and the Penn State D is the type that thrives on getting costly takeaways. Badger RB P.J. Hill (125 ypg, 9th nationally) will probably get some yards, but will struggle to get as many as Michigan’s Mike Hart did against the Lions D. The Penn State defensive front could terrorize a Badger line that is still trying to recover from losing Joe Thomas to the NFL. The Penn State D is 4th nationally in sacks, 6th in TFL and 8th in rushing D, meaning the Badgers need their best blocking game of the year. PSU linebackers Sean Lee and Dan Connor fit the mold of big hitting backers, and at 2nd and 3rd in the conference in stops, will be counted on to keep Hill under wraps. Wisconsin’s a little better than Penn State, but Happy Valley isn’t the toughest road trip in the conference for nothing. Penn State 20, Wisconsin 17.

Best of the Rest:
Purdue at Michigan - The Boilers weren’t up to the challenge the Buckeyes presented last week, so we’ll see if they can get back on the horse in the Big House. The Wolverines obviously aren’t quite as good as Ohio State, but the defense is still scary, and Purdue’s defense has looked fairly helpless against the pass, meaning Chad Henne has a chance to really get back on track Saturday. This is a fork in the road for Purdue, which started 5-0, but will be headed toward another high-hopes, weak-finish season if they can’t get it done in Ann Arbor. I’m thinking the key to this game might be how well the Purdue offensive line can create some space for Kory Sheets and the running game. If Curtis Painter has a bit of time, he’ll make good on it. The Wolverines have been the most mercurial bunch in football this fall, but I think they’ll come up just a bit short this weekend, sealing Lloyd Carr’s employment fate. Purdue 24, Michigan 20.

Indiana at Michigan State - The Spartans defensive front, led by Jonal Saint-Dic, is getting a ton of credit for sparking the mini-renaissance in Mark Dantonio’s first season in East Lansing. But its actually the Hoosier defense that leads the nation in sacks, at an astounding 4.83 per game. Sophomore DL Greg Middleton has been a beast, with 9 sacks, and Jammie Kirlew and Ryan Marando are in the Big Ten’s top 10 in sacks as well. This front is probably even more balanced than the Michigan State front, and has to keep creating backfield problems for Indiana to win. In 2007, the Big Ten probably has more viable coach of the year candidates than any campaign in recent memory (Ron Zook is an easy 1st, but in any other year Jim Tressel, Dantonio and Indiana’s Bill Lynch would all be viable candidates). Two of those contenders match up here, and count on Dantonio to neutralize Indiana’s pass rush with quick passes and between the tackles running by Jehuu Caulcrick. This one’s really tough to call, but I think MSU responds with a clutch win. Michigan State 28, Indiana 26

Ho Hum:
Kent State at Ohio State - After a bruising, impressive win in West Lafayette, Ohio State draws the Golden Flashes, the MAC’s most talented squad, in a home date at the Horseshoe. Kent State has loads of talent for its size, but hasn’t been able to stop beating itself, committing one backbreaking penalty after another a 20-13 loss to Miami (Ohio) that I attended. Ohio State, meanwhile, is playing as well as any team in the country outside Baton Rouge, and should be resting their starters by the fourth quarter. QB Julian Edelman is a talent unlike any OSU has faced this year, and I think the element of surprise might be good for ten points by the Flashes. The Bucks have forced more punts this year than the amount of points they’re surrended. That’s astounding. Ohio State 38, Kent State 10.

Boooooorrrrrring:
Minnesota at Northwestern - The Gophers get their best crack at avoiding an 0-fer the Big Ten, travelling to Evanston for a date with a Northwestern team that’s due for a letdown after a monstrous outing in East Lansing. Despite all the fireworks, the ‘Cats still rank 10th in the conference in both rushing yards and scoring, meaning that if CJ Bacher is off kilter at all, they could go down. The lines have been bad too, at 10th or worse in sacks, TFL and rush D. Minnesota showed some signs of life last week against Indiana, but the defense is just god awful, giving up 515 yards a game and ranking 118th nationally in turnover margin, 119th nationally in pass D and 112th in sacks. Those are horrendous, terrifying numbers, and even though Northwestern could lay an egg, I can’t pick a team that woeful on defense. Northwestern 35, Minnesota 22.

Big Ten Review: Week Six

The Big Ten is colored Orange now, with the Illini at 3-0 following two straight wins over traditionally great programs. Jeff has the Illinois game covered, but here’s a quick rundown of what happened in the rest of the league:

Game of the Week

Northwestern 48, Michigan State 41 – You thought you knew this Spartan squad. Finally, someone was able to neutralize the Spartan rush, as CJ Bacher threw for a school-record 520 yards, including a fifth touchdown in overtime, as the ‘Cats stunned MSU in East Lansing. As predicted in this space last week, the Northwestern spread attack neutralized MSU’s biggest strength, their pass rush, and helped Bacher complete 38 of 48 passes. The Spartan offense was excellent, but ultimately just couldn’t keep up with the Wildcat attack. Javon Ringer had another stellar week, posting 185 yards on just 12 carries, one of which went for 80 yards, and Brian Hoyer was typically solid, with 190 yards, a TD and no picks. As promising as MSU’s start was this year, they’re now looking at a must-win against Indiana next week to keep any reasonable hopes for a bowl game alive.

Best of the Rest

None.

Ho Hum

Ohio State 23, Purdue 7 – The Buckeyes are starting to define this category with one workmanlike victory after another. OSU will get objections from only Illinois when calling itself the class of the Big Ten right now, as they took every shot Purdue wanted to offer and then some. The Boilers had this one circled on the calendar all year, but OSU held an offense that had been averaging 40+ points per game to a measly touchdown with 7 seconds left. In six contests, only one team (Washington) has put up more than 7 on the Buckeyes. That’s an amazing stat, and with USC going down, and LSU hoeing a tough road up ahead, Ohio State has every right to start thinking they have an inside track to the national championship game. There will be challenges, but OSU should have no problem getting to 10-0 by the time Illinois comes to town.

Indiana 40, Minnesota 20 – The Hoosiers took one step closer to a nice bowl bid with an easy win over hapless Minnesota. Indy struggled a little bit finding the end zone, but 4 Austin Starr FGs kept them rolling to a 33-14 lead at the end of the third. Sophomore Bryan Payton produced a break out effort at RB, snagging 13 carries for 90 yards and 3 scores. Minnesota got another nice passing day from Adam Weber, but the defense is playing so poorly right now, they don’t have a chance to beat anyone. Don’t sleep on this Hoosier squad in the Big Ten race. The defense is never going to be a lock down unit, but athleticism on offense will carry them a long way. After seeing what Illinois did to Wisconsin and Northwestern did to Michigan State, is there any reason this team can’t get 9 wins, considering they dodge both Michigan and Ohio State?

Michigan 33, E. Michigan 23 – The Wolverines gave up 23 points to a terrible offensive football team in the Eagles, and turned this one much closer than it needed to go. Leading by just 2 midway through the third quarter, Mike Hart put the offense on his back yet again, and galloped for TD runs of 24 and 17 yards, giving Michigan a 19 point lead. Hart logged 215 yards on just 22 carries against a defense that is, believe it or not, a pretty decent one with a solid crew of LBs. Hart should be getting tons of Heisman consideration for the way he’s played, and this outing should have him back at the top of the nation’s rushing leaders. It goes without saying that this effort won’t cut it next week against Purdue.

Boooooooooring

Penn State 27, Iowa 7 – The Fighting Paternos got back on the horse after back-to-back losses, beating the brains in of an Iowa squad that is, let’s face it, pretty darn awful. Iowa didn’t cross the 100 offensive yard mark until early in the fourth quarter, and had absolutely no run game, getting just 48 yards on 28 carries. Penn State, meanwhile, got 256 rushing yards against a front four that started the year so dominant. This one could have been worse, too, as PSU had three crucial turnovers, and Iowa held on to the ball all day. The Hawks had just eight first downs. Eight. The Hawks have a relative cupcake schedule, dodging Michigan and OSU, but they could very easily be 0-7 in the Big Ten heading to the October 10^th “showdown” against Northwestern.

Big Ten Preview: Week Six

Once again leaving the Illinois game to Jeff, let’s take a quick peek around the Big Ten and see what’s in store on the first weekend in October.

Game of the Week

Ohio State at Purdue – The Boilers have had this one circled on the calendar since the beginning of the year. To their credit, they survived all the landmines until now, and enter the OSU game 5-0. Purdue’s offense has been lighting up bad defenses to the tun of 495 yards and 45.4 points per game (10^th and 8^th in NCAA). QB Curtis Painter has slowed a bit the last two weeks, but the passing game is still absolutely blowing people up, with Painter sitting at 308 yards a game and 18 TD to 3 INT. WR Dorien Bryant is a dynamic threat as well, averaging a cool 8 catches, 90 yards a game. Bryant is also tops in the Big Ten in kick returns, at over 32 yards a return. On the OSU side of the ball, the Bucks have been getting Henry Ford-like efficiency from QB Todd Boeckman and the offensive line, pancaking Ds and giving Boeckman plenty of time to see the field and develop in to a high quality QB. The D has been fantastic, with stud playmakers James Laurinaitis and Vernon Gholston leading a unit that’s giving up only 7 points a game. The spread attack of Purdue will give Ohio State some early problems, but the Bucks will batten down the hatches are solidify their grip on the Big Ten title chase. Ohio State 30, Purdue 23.

Best of the Rest

Iowa at Penn State – Two historically solid programs both desperately needing a win to keep their seasons from heading completely south. Penn State has lost tough road battles at Michigan and Illinois the last two weeks, and Iowa lost a nailbiter at Wisconsin before being pounded by Indiana in Kinnick. In Happy Valley, the story is once again defense, with the Lions sitting in the top 15 nationally in rush D, total yards D, scoring D, sacks and TFL. Linebacker U has another two great ones this year in Sean Lee and Dan Connor, two LBs that can lay big time hits and cover the field. The Hawkeye defense has been pretty good, too, but the offense has been wretched. With four top receivers out to injury, QB Jake Christensen’s learning curve has been stunted, and Iowa just isn’t moving the ball well enough to beat a defense like this on the road. Penn State 24, Iowa 13.

Ho Hum

Northwestern at Michigan State – A week after playing Wisconsin to the endgame in Madison, the Spartans return home to get a Northwestern squad that had Michigan on the ropes, but couldn’t stop turning the ball over. On paper, this one should be over in a hurry, with MSU’s double tailback tandem of Ringer and Caulcrick able to carve a defense that’s 9^th in the Big Ten against the run, and 10^th in keeping teams off the scoreboard. However, Northwestern’s semi-spread attack could neutralize Michigan State’s biggest edge on defense, getting to the quarterback and wreaking havoc in the backfield. Led by absolute beast Jonal Saint-Dic, the Spartans are 2^nd nationally in sacks and 5^th in TFL, but if the Wildcats spread ‘em out wide and throw a lot of 3-step drop quick passes, they may be able to limit MSU’s sacking ability. I think this one’s closer than it might be, but the Spartans still pull out the victory. Michigan State 28, Northwestern 23.

Minnesota at Indiana – I’ve grown a little tired of giving the Gophers the same “they stink, but expect some fireworks!” preview, so it was kind of nice to see a completely boring 30-7 loss last week to Ohio State. Indiana is playing well right now, and needs this one to keep the ball rolling and stay within range of 8 wins. No offense to the Hoosiers, but this is a scary game for a program like Indiana, because its one of the first they’ve had in awhile where they are big favorites and absolutely, positively must win. How will they respond? They’re going to start by trying to make QB Adam Weber miserable. Michigan State is getting all the pub, but Indiana actually leads the nation in sacks, at 5.4 a game, and with the way Minny’s offense is going, they should be able to wreak sufficient havoc behind the line of scrimmage. Still, I think the Gophers put a little scare in to ‘em. Indiana 32, Minnesota 24.

Boooorrrrrrrring

Eastern Michigan at Michigan – After a roller coaster few weeks that saw them paste Notre Dame, gut out a win over Penn State, then almost pee down their leg against Northwestern, the Wolverines come back to Ann Arbor for a little serenity before battling Purdue and Illinois the next two Saturdays. I know, you’re thinking “don’t forget Appalachian State!” and believe me, Michigan won’t. Besides, this EMU squad is a woeful bunch on offense, ranking in the 100s nationally in every major category on the heels of a 180 yard outing at Vanderbilt. This unit can’t and won’t move the ball on Michigan. The Eagle D on the other hand is a unit with some playmakers you’re not hearing enough about, because they play on such a bad team. LB Daniel Holtzclaw is 3^rd in the nation in tackles, and can make plays all over the field. DE Jason Jones spent some time last year leading the nation in TFL, and he’s close again this year, tied for 13^th in the NCAA. So EMU should be able to limit the onslaught, but with the offense going nowhere, this one still won’t be close. Michigan 31, EMU 3.

Big Ten Power Rankings: Week Six

It was Show Yourself Saturday in the Big Ten. Some squads showed up, and some didn’t. Illinois and Indiana got big wins, Michigan State looked great even in defeat and Michigan…well, maybe we all hopped back on the Wolverines bandwagon a bit too soon. How do they stack up? Check it:

1. Ohio State – The Buckeyes are so head and shoulders above most of the conference right now, its looking more and more possible that OSU could run the table again. On a day when so many top national teams fell, the Bucks gave another lunch pail performance against Minnesota, dominating the Gophers 30-7. This team has looked great almost every week against what is certainly not a powerful schedule to date, but consider this: OSU easily beat a Washington team that took USC to the wire, and pounded Northwestern by 50 a week before the Wildcats almost beat Michigan. We’ll find out a lot this week in West Lafayette.
2. Purdue – The Boilers didn’t put the hurting on Notre Dame that I thought they would, but the bottom line is survival, and Purdue has made it to the Ohio State game 5-0. I’m still on the Curtis Painter bandwagon, don’t get me wrong, but his stats have down to earth a little bit, with a pick last week against Minnesota and 2 this week against ND. Right now, the pass defense is the biggest question mark. Part of the reason the Boilers have given up so many passing yards is that they’ve been ahead all year. But the 370 yards surrendered Saturday against what has been an awful, awful Irish attack has to have the folks in West Lafayette a little concerned.
3. Illinois – Bravo to Ron Zook and Illinois. The program turning win against Penn State will be magnified five-fold if the Illini can beat Wisconsin this weekend. Vegas is making ILL a 2 point favorite, which shows the kind of respect flying around for Illinois right now. Could Rashard Mendenhall be the best back in the Big Ten? He’s 3^rd in the conference in yardage, but the two guys above him, Mike Hart and PJ Hill, are both averaging 4.8 yards a carry. Rashard’s at 6.4.
4. Wisconsin – I’m just going to take this paragraph to tell you what I think of the national polls. The way the AP poll works is an absolute joke. The AP poll has become a system of punishment and reward, where a win moves you up, and a loss moves you down, no questions asked. Panic sets in when USC gets voted out of the top spot without losing. Teams climb up the ladder beating patsies just because they aren’t losing. Here is what a poll is supposed to be: a rating of what someone thinks the best teams are at that moment. Does anyone that has watched a second of college football right now think that Wisconsin is a better team than Florida? Better than Oklahoma? Better than West Virginia? Better than South Florida? Better than Oregon? Remember, we’re talking about what we’ve seen on the field this year. The polls are a disgrace.
5. Michigan State – The Spartans gave a valiant effort in Madison, but the defense isn’t quite ready to beat the big boys yet. Still, MSU outgained the ‘Scons by 100 yards, had less turnovers…but lost. Who’s the better pro prospect right now, Javon Ringer or Jehuu Caulcrick? Ringer got all the yards at Wisconsin, but at 6’0, 255, Caulcrick has the body.
6. Indiana – The Hoosiers righted the ship in a big way with a thrashing of Iowa as Kellen Lewis threw for 322 yards on just 26 attempts. The Hoosier running attack suffered a second straight week of ineptitude, but the Hawkeye front four is a tough nut to crack, and if Lewis can throw as well he did Saturday, its not as big a problem. I can’t quite figure out the defense, though. Two weeks ago they got lit up by Rashard Mendenhall and Illinois, this week Jake Christensen went off 300+ on them. With Penn State looking vulnerable, an 8-win season is well within reach.
7. Michigan – (throws his hands up) I don’t know. I just don’t know. This team obviously has the talent to play like the conference’s 2^nd best squad, but Michigan laid a major egg in Evanston Saturday and spent the better part of three quarters having no answer for, of all people, Northwestern backup RB Omar Conteh. If I had told you a week ago that UM would win the turnover battle +5 and only win by 12, you’d still be laughing.
8. Penn State – Maybe that battle two weeks ago in the Big House wasn’t the clash of the Titans we thought it was. Not to take any credit away from Illinois, but I don’t think this team is nearly as good as we thought it was after the quick start. In two weeks, Anthony Morelli has gone from being “on the verge of breaking in to the ranks of elite Big Ten QBs” (those are my words) to looking very average at best at Illinois. The D is still pretty doggone good, but will they get support?
9. Iowa – You’ve got to feel for the Iowa defensive line. This is a smash mouth unit filled with NFL talent, but they’re not getting any help from the offense. The Hawk offense is 102^nd in the nation in scoring and, ravaged by injuries it will be hard to improve. Iowa takes on a Penn State unit fighting for its life this Saturday, then gets improved Illinois, Purdue and Michigan State on successive weeks in October. Iowa should get one of those games, but its looking like a 3-6 start at best right now. They did the same last year, with three late wins sending Iowa to 6-6 and the Alamo Bowl. I don’t think they’ll get a similar bid if history repeats itself.
10. Northwestern – The Wildcats were close. Up 9 at half on the visiting Wolverines, but unable to stop shooting themselves in the collective foot, Northwestern couldn’t close the deal and fell, 28-16. When you’re playing an opponent like Michigan, you can’t A. turn the ball over 5 times, B. get to the 10 twice with no TDs, C. punt for an average of 34 yards a kick. So close.
11. Minnesota – Tim Brewster is starting to tinker, with the carries getting shifted around between Amir Pinnix and freshman Duane Bennett. There’s not a lot to say about this squad, other than that Brewster is there for the long haul, and obviously, that’s about how long its going to take. If you’re like me, you might find it hard to believe that Minny’s leading rusher was born in 1989. Gosh, I feel old.

Big Ten Week in Review: Week Five

What a week in the Big Ten! Leaving the big Illini victory to Jeff, let’s take a lot at what went down around the conference:

Game of the Week

Wisconsin 37, Michigan State 34 – The Spartans exposed the weak Badger defense Saturday, but couldn’t shut down PJ Hill or Tyler Donovan enough to get a win. MSU had two chance in the fourth, but missed a field goal with a few minutes left and stalled out on 4^th down in the waning seconds. Wisconsin TE Travis Beckum (10 rec., 132 yds.) had his first real big game of 2007, and Tyler Donovan got another nice win to move to 7-0 as a starter. The Spartans have nothing to be ashamed of; there was no meltdown, just coming up a few points short against a better team on the road. Brian Hoyer was solid (22-36, 323 yds.) and Javon Ringer (10 rec., 145 yds.) showed explosiveness we’ve rarely seen from him. The Badgers’ schedule gets really tough after this, with road trips the next two weeks at Illinois and Penn State; if the defense plays like they did today, they’ll lose one or both of those games.

Best of the Rest

Michigan 28, Northwestern 16 – So, Michigan’s back, right? Maybe not. The Wolverines got beat up at Northwestern for the better part of three quarters before a 5 yard TD pass from Chad Henne to Carson Butler brought them within 2, at 16-14. After a Wildcat fumble, Adrian Arrington caught a TD pass to give Michigan the lead, and UM went on to win, 28-16. Here’s how ridiculous this game was: Northwestern committed 5 turnovers to Michigan’s 0. If someone told you Michigan would win the turnover battle by 5, and not take the lead until the mid-fourth quarter, you would have laughed, right? I have no idea what to expect of Michigan going forward, but Northwestern showed some sparks, with Omar Conteh getting 115 yards rushing to bring his career total to 213.

Ho Hum

Purdue 33, Notre Dame 19 – The Irish are improving and, to their credit, haven’t gone totally in the tank after the embarrassing start. But their best still wasn’t good enough Saturday, as they fell to Purdue 33-19, despite getting great work off the bench from deposed QB Evan Sharpley (16-26, 208 yards). ND’s best effort probably won’t be good enough until they face Navy at 0-8, so until then they’ve got to figure out this QB thing. Sharpley is better right now, but Clausen is obviously the future. Purdue got the win, but disappointed in a couple areas: Curtis Painter threw his second and third picks of the year, and the Boilers surrendered 377 yards to a passing attack that had previously been downright anemic.

Indiana 38, Iowa 20 – Two teams showed their true colors in Iowa City yesterday, as Indiana proved they are a contender for a solid bowl game this season, and the Hawkeyes showed how suspect their secondary really is, and how much they’ve fallen off since the glory days of the Kirk Ferentz era just a few short years ago. Iowa got torched for two long touchdowns in the first half, and fell victim to a flukey 71 yard fumble recovery TD by Indiana’s QB, Kellen Lewis (19-26, 322 yards). In addition to all Iowa’s other problems, they’ve got kicking issues now, as both Daniel Murray and Austin Signor continues their struggles, missing 3 kicks between them. With Penn State, Illinois, Purdue and Michigan State looming, Iowa could very, very easily be 0-6 in Big Ten play by November.

Booooooooooooooring

Ohio State 30, Minnesota 7 – Another workmanlike outing from the Buckeyes, who continue to roll along headed in to next weekend’s showdown in West Lafayette. OSU is giving up 7.2 points per game, and stayed right on course with a lockdown effort on a solid Gopher attack, holding Minny to just 45 yards on the ground. What is there to say about this game? OSU was solid as can be; they got production from QB Todd Boeckman (18-29, 208 yards, 2 TD), RB Chris Wells (24 cars, 116 yards) and, of course, the defense.

Big Ten Week Preview: Week Five

It was a big week in Big Ten action last Saturday, as Michigan got back to good, Ohio State showed they’d never left, Wisconsin survived, Illinois thrived and Michigan State, well, they won too. What’s on tap for the last Saturday in September? Read on!

Last Week: 5-0

Season: 28-7

GAME OF THE WEEK

Michigan State (4-0) at Wisconsin (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) – Are the Badgers for real? They’ve got the nation’s longest winning streak but have been underwhelming all year, with squeaker wins against UNLV and Iowa to go with a shockingly porous defensive performance against the Citadel. The Spartans have been as good as anyone in East Lansing could have hoped at year’s start. The defense feasted on Notre Dame just like they should have, and is giving up only 15.50 points a game, good for 14^th nationally. Senior DL Jonal Saint-Dic is having a monster year, with 6 sacks, 8 TFL and 5 forced fumbles in just three games. The defense leads the nation in sacks, and that’s reason for hope, heading in to Madison, where the Badgers are giving up way more sacks (8 so far) than they should be. Tyler Donovan, the Badgers’ starting QB, has been efficient, but will have to be quick with his passes against this rush. MSU is going to be in this game late in to the fourth quarter, but I think Wisconsin survives by putting it all on PJ Hill and letting him make his Heisman case. Wisconsin 19, Michigan State 16.

BEST OF THE REST

Indiana (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten) at Iowa (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten) – Two teams licking their wounds dance in Iowa City in a rematch of last year’s Hoosier victory in Bloomington. Indiana disappointed me with a gag-erific four-fumble performance against the Illini last week. Did Illinois write the book on beating the Hoosiers? Lewis got his passes in, but wasn’t allowed to do much running, getting just 35 net yards on the ground. Iowa, on the other hand, is signing up players off the street and getting them in the two-deeps at wideout. Four Iowa receivers appear to be out for the year with injuries/suspensions, and that’s the last thing Jake Christensen needs at this stage in his development. Last week I tried paging Albert Young, who I’m becoming more and more convinced is suffering from some hush-hush injury. This week, I’ll try Damien Sims, the very talented back up who spelled Young many times last year. Both these teams are at a crossroads; if Iowa loses, it’ll be 2-4 when Illinois comes to town. If Indiana loses, all the promise of the 3-0 start is gone, and its back to trying to grind out a minor bowl bid. Most homefields are worth 3 points. Kinnick Stadium is worth 7. Iowa 20, Indiana 13.

HO HUM

Ohio State (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) at Minnesota (1-3, 0-1 Big Ten) I’m telling you right now, as long as the Gophers are averaging 20 points a game during the fourth quarter and OT, they’ll never be in the “boooooring” category. Amir Pinnix is an underrated back, at 110 yards per game, and QB Adam Weber has run well along with backup RB Duane Bennett. Weber seemed to make some strides last week, throwing less dangerous passes and cutting his INT output to 1, instead of the 4 he chucked against Florida Atlantic. The defense still has an awful case of the Triple Digits, at 106^th or worse nationally in yards, points, punting, pass efficiency and sacks. What more can be said about Ohio State, who seems solid up and down the lineup as usual. The Bucks have lost only 1 in their last 24 games, and this is just the kind of reckless squad that Tressel’s Troops will feast on. Ohio State 45, Minnesota 20.

Notre Dame (0-4) at Purdue (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) – So, sue me, I lost interest in this whole “Notre Dame Stinks” story awhile ago. Yet, there’s something kind of intriguing about Cowboy Tiller getting Charlie Tuna in his house in west Indiana, as the Boilers get a chance to avenge abuse that goes back a lot farther than last year’s defeat. Curtis Painter’s TD-INT mark is 16-1, and Dorien Bryant has gone over 12 catches and 111 yards twice so far. To top that off, the offensive line has allowed just 2 sacks in 171 pass attempts, a truly astonishing number. ND will score another offensive touchdown (maybe two), but blood is going to be in the air at Ross-Ade, and Purdue won’t disappoint. Purdue 45, Notre Dame14.

Boooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring

Michigan (2-2, 1-0 Big Ten) at Northwestern (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten) – Now that Michigan is back on the horse, they’ve suddenly become very not interesting again. Two weeks ago, this one looked great on paper – the ‘Cats were 2-0, Michigan was 0-2, and could it really happen at Ryan Field? Now, the Michigan D is playing like a showstopper and the Wildcats are just trying to figure out which loss was more embarrassing – dropping to Duke at home or getting demolished in Columbus. The Wildcat line play has been ugly, with 12 sacks given up and just 3 recorded, while the running game is still searching for an identity, especially now with Tyrell Sutton likely on the fritz. Mike Hart wins a few more Heisman voters over, and Michigan takes one step closer to redemption. Michigan 40, Northwestern 12.

Big Ten Power Rankings: Week Five

It was a big week in Big Ten country; the Wolverines are back, the Buckeyes never left, the Illini arrived and the Badgers survived. Purdue threw and the Spartans won too. Don’t forget, these ratings describe how good I think these teams are right now, not how well I think they’ll finish, or what record they’ll have at season’s end.

1. Ohio State – Boom. One week after reminding a whole lot of people that OSU was still OSU with a big win under the shadow of Mount Rainier, the Bucks dropped the hurt on Northwestern in the 500^th game ever at the Horseshoe. The defense certainly hasn’t faced a great offense yet, but the numbers are just insane: 2^nd in the NCAA in total D, 3^rd in scoring D, 5^th in pass D…don’t forget the run D, weak by comparison at 7^th in the NCAA. Offenses have combined for 20 points in 4 games against the stone wall front, and with QB Todd Boeckman very quietly leading the Big Ten in pass efficiency (10^th nationally), OSU is the best of the lot right now, and its really not close.

2. Purdue – The Boilers aren’t perfect, that’s for sure. But can any of the below teams keep up with them? Even if the D won’t be great, and they won’t be (8^th in the Big 10 in scoring D, 9^th in yardage D), which of the below teams will score as many points as Curtis Painter & Co? The Boilers have put up 45 twice and 52 twice and lead the conference in passing yards, total yards and points. The most impressive stat might be that, in the face of 171, the ‘Maker offensive line has surrendered just 2 passes. Sure, Painter isn’t taking super-deep drops, but that’s only 1 sack every 85 passes, and Painter is posting the numbers to show for it: 16-1 TD-INT ratio and 1290 yards in 4 games.

3. Michigan – Yep, I’m not kidding. The Wolverines’ D has healed, the moxie is back, and if Chad Henne returns healthy, this team can still contend for the conference title and play somewhere nice on New Year’s Day. Mike Hart is second on my Heisman ballot right now (Graham Harrell’s 1950 passing yards have him at the top), and Shawn Crable is posting a sensational year at LB, with 12 of his 27 tackles coming in the opponent’s backfield. With a defense capable of shutting down an opponent this thoroughly, every little bit of field possession helps; it would be nice to improve on the punt and kick returns, which have both disappointed.

4. Wisconsin – The Badgers haven’t impressed me one bit this year, but I can’t pull the trigger on picking any of the below teams to beat them on a neutral field. Iowa had a couple chances to connect on big pass plays that would have seriously threatened the Badgers’ 4 point lead late Saturday, but receivers dropped passes and fell down, allowing Wisconsin to hold on to a key win. The defense was good against Iowa, but what happened to Tyler Donovan? A week after the Iowa pass D was knocked around in Ames, the Badgers threw for just 138 yards on 23 attempts. It doesn’t seem like typical Wisconsin stuff to be losing the turnover battles, either.

5. Penn State – That slamming sound your hear in the distance is the window closing on Lion QB Anthony Morelli. Morelli and the rest of the offense had chance after chance to mount a memorable drive against Michigan Saturday, but couldn’t get it done. Michigan’s streak against PSU is 9, and Morelli missed his chance to launch himself in to the All Big Ten discussion. The rush D numbers took a hit after Mike Hart’s 150 yard+ performance, but the fighting Paternos are still 6^th nationally in rush yards surrendered, and 9^th in both scoring D and yardage D. PSU might not face another D all year that needs a win as bad as Michigan did Saturday, but until they produce against a high quality defensive unit, consider me a doubter.

6. Illinois – I was wrong about the tribe. I had Indiana pegged as this year’s Big Ten breakout squad, but the Illini showed me up with a convincing 27-14 win over the Hoosiers this weekend. Is that Red Grange? Nope, just Rashard Mendenhall, going from being basically a nobody on the national radar to cracking the top 10 in rushing yards just 4 games in to his junior campaign. When a team has a breakout year, every game is huge, but this Saturday’s collision with Penn State is really huge. The next three weeks; Wisconsin, at Iowa and Michigan will all be very tough. If the Illini lose to the Lions, they’re headed toward another improved, yet unremarkable year. Beat PSU, and things get very, very interesting.

7. Michigan State – MSU took care of business in South Bend, and while we know the Irish stink, the win was just a little more evidence that some of the headcase ghosts were exercised from East Lansing when Mark D’Antonio put up his name plate. The defense has been great at harassing QBs (1^st nationally in sacks, 5^th in TFL), and actually pretty darn good overall (14^th in scoring D, 14^th in yardage D). In a league short on top-flight offenses, this kind of D might keep MSU in some games. If Brian Hoyer keeps improving, these team has an excellent chance to be 6-1 heading to Columbus on October 20^th. If MSU wins 7 or more games, D’Antonio will be tough to unseat for coach of the year.

8. Iowa – The Hawks gave a typically gritty Iowa performance in Madison Saturday night, but came up just a little bit short against a Badger squad that outgained them by 76 yards. We’re not going to know how good Jake Christensen is until at least next year when, hopefully, he won’t be throwing passes with 4 of his top 5 WRs unable to play. The schedule is as light as can be in the Big Ten, with Michigan and Ohio State off the docket and all the toss-up games (Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State) at cozy Kinnick Stadium. Iowa can win all three those and still get to eight wins for the year, but either Albert Young or Damien Sims had better step up fast, and the line has to protect Christensen better (98 nationally in sacks allowed).

9. Indiana – Darn it, Indiana. You were my sleeper Big Ten pick since Day One, and I had your back all the way against Illinois. But you got the fumbles early against Illinois, and lost despite winning the yardage battle. Indiana has an offense built to dismantle Iowa’s defensive scheme, but they’ve got to control the ball, move the chains and get to Iowa QB Jake Christensen. The Hoosiers have done a great job of collapsing pockets so far, ranking 3^rd in the conference in sacks and TFL, but if Christensen has time Saturday, I’m thinking he’s due for a breakout performance.

10. Minnesota – The Gophs get out of the Big Ten basement, and all it took was a 14-point loss to Purdue! Minnesota’s D has been awful, ranking in the bottom 13 D-I teams in total yards given up, points given up, turnover margin, pass D, sacks and (for good measure) punting average. What could Amir Pinnix (109.75 ypg) and Adam Weber (17^th nationally in total offense) do if they weren’t constantly starting drives backed up against their own goal line? We won’t find out. Not in this life time at least.

11. Northwestern - Honestly, I don’t know who would win if Minny played Northwestern, but the ‘Cats sure looked like a team missing a heart, liver, kidney, and several other vital organs in Columbus Saturday. I’m not trying to be a jerk here, but with two games that are just going to leave you bloody, why not take three weeks to prepare for Minnesota, who comes to Evanston on October 13^th? The problems start up front – the ‘Cats have three sacks and have given up 12.

Big Ten Review - Week Four

Game of the Week

Wisconsin 17, Iowa 13 – The Hawkeyes showed why their coaching staff is still one of the tops in the Big Ten, rebounding from a heartbreaking loss to play a better opponent to the final minute. Iowa had two great chances to connect on big plays with under two minutes to play, but slips and drops cost the Hawks big pass conversions. As they tend to do, the Badgers put this one on their feature back, PJ Hill’s shoulders, and he delivered, contributing 113 yards on 29 carries against a stout Iowa run D. Iowa kept this one close despite registering only 228 yards; what the Hawks did do was win the turnover battle, 3-0, and get occasionally sparkling play from their gaggle of substitute receivers. But where is the Iowa running game? Sure, this Wisconsin run D is excellent; but in four games, Albert Young has just 262 yards.

Best of the Rest

Michigan 14, Penn State 9 – Defense was the currency in this battle between two Big Ten powers looking to make a statement. Mike Hart put himself squarely in the Heisman race with a 44 carry, 153 yard performance against a typically dominant Penn State defense. The Wolverines moved the ball much better than PSU, winning the yardage battle (336-270), the first down battle (25-14), and converting an impressive 10 of 18 third downs. Even though this was a one point game with nine minutes left, you never got the impression Michigan was going to let this slip away. People singing the praises of Nittany Lion QB Anthony Morelli after three games may need to reconsider; his 15-31 outing showed that he’s still not a top Big Ten QB.

Ho-Hum

Purdue 45, Minnesota 31 – Well, you got what you paid for. The Boilers won 45-31 in a shootout. Minnesota scored 14 points after the third quarter to run their total up to 80 on the year, but the brutal Gophers defense isn’t giving them a chance to compete with anyone. The Boilers ran up a 17-0 lead 13 minutes in, and coasted to a 24-3 halftime lead. The teams traded scores throughout the second half, with Minny never getting closer than 14. Maybe the Gophers are improving; they held Purdue without a touchdown for 23 minutes spanning the first to third quarters. Purdue’s Curtis Painter threw for 338 yards, and ran his TD-INT ratio to 16-1 on the season. If they can contain passers, the Gophers might have an outside shot at Indiana in two weeks.

Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 14 – Notre Dame’s offense got on the board with a gimme 5-yard drive after a turnover, but eventually got worn down by a hard hitting Spartan D, and dropped to 0-4. Don’t undersell how important this win was for Mark D’Antonio in East Lansing; ND got off to a good start, led 7-0, and all the pieces were there for a magical Irish win. But D’Antonio’s Spartan D didn’t let it happen, stifling the Irish offense to just 9 first downs on 203 yards. Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick were a devastating 1-2 punch, combining for 46 carries and 227 yards. QB Brian Hoyer got all the TDs, but Ringer and Caulcrick were the enforcers.

Boooooooooooooooring

Ohio State 58, Northwestern 7 – I think I might have to rename the “Boring” category “Ohio State 58, Northwestern 7”. With the ‘Cats coming off last week’s humiliating home loss to Duke, and the Buckeyes getting their swagger back in a road win at Washington, the script was all there for a pounding and OSU delivered. The Bucks led 45-0 at half time, and N’Western’s only score of the day came on a 99-yard kick return to start the second half. OSU’s D is looking positively filthy, holding the ‘Cats to 120 yards, 0 rushing yards, and just 11 first downs. QB Todd Boeckman was scarily efficient, throwing 11-14 for 179 yards and 4 TDs. Yoo hoo, Big Ten – the Buckeyes are back.

Big Ten Week Four Preview

The Big Ten season gets underway in a big way this weekend with five conference tilts and the annual Michigan State-Notre Dame hatefest. Leaving the Illinois game to Jeff, let’s take a look at the other 5 contests taking place on Saturday.

Game of the Week

#10 Penn State (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten) at Michigan (1-2, 0-0 Big Ten) – OK, Wolverines: here’s your chance. While there are some Wolverine fans who will never be happy (and its true, there will be no national title this season, as some had hoped), this is Michigan’s chance to get right back on track for a Big Ten title run. The holes in the Wolverines’ offense and defenses have been exposed, but a big win over PSU will bring back the swagger; and in a down Big Ten, that could carry UM a long way. Michigan has beaten the Lions 8 straight times, and their effort to win #9 will certain around their defense’s ability to stop a Penn State offense that has put up big points against bad defenses. The Lions have scored 135 in three games against FIU, ND and Buffalo. Keeping the Lions off the scoreboard is key; even on Mike Hart’s shoulders, the Wolverine attack isn’t going to score a ton of points, and PSU is 30-1 since 2001 when they score 30 points or more. Anthony Morelli has been sharp against weak competition, tossing 8 TDs to just 1 INT, and rolling up 628 passing yards. Michigan’s front four has to create pressure; if they don’t, this will be the game Morelli’s been waiting for, where he can finally establish himself as a topflight starter. RB Rodney Kinlaw rose to the occasion against Buffalo, going for 129 yards and a score, while his running mate, Austin Scott, is more the bruiser, averaging just 4.5 yards a pop; Scott is a better redzone option, with 5 scores to Kinlaw’s 2. When Michigan is on offense, they’ll face a Penn State defense that has terrorized foes this year. The Lions are 1^st nationally in rush D, giving up just 18 yards a game. Penn State is 1^st in sacks, 4^th in TFL, 8^th in total yardage D. This is a stout Lions D, and seeing Mike Hart (3^rd nationally in rushing) do battle with the vaunted PSU linebacking corps. Michigan isn’t nearly as bad as they looked against Oregon, and I think make a stand Saturday, and put themselves right back in to the title hunt. Michigan 20, Penn State 16.

Best of the Rest

Iowa (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) at #9 Wisconsin (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten) – A week after dropping a battle to Iowa State, the Hawkeyes find the shoe on the other foot. The Hawkeyes have no answer for why the Cyclones have their number; by the same turn, Iowa’s been inexplicably good against the Badgers in recent years. The lifetime series is tied at 40, and since the Heartland Trophy was christened in 2004, the Hawks have posted three performances against Wisconsin that were among their best of the year, winning 2 of 3 battles. Iowa’s new QB Jake Christensen had plenty of time against ISU, but took 4 sacks because he couldn’t find open receivers. Count on Kirk Ferentz’s ace staff to have plugged some holes since Saturday, but they’ll also be facing an upgraded defensive line in Wisconsin’s front four, who is a solid unit despite posting subpar numbers to date in 2007. After a disappointing defensive outing against the Citadel (31 points, 245 yards against the FCS team), you can bet former Hawkeye Bret Bielema has his troops’ attention. I actually think the Hawks match up awfully well against Wisconsin. Iowa’s front four, led by Kenny Iwebema, Brian Mattison and Mitch King, is a run stuffing monster, and PJ Hill won’t have the kind of spacious gaps he’s enjoyed against lesser foes. Still, this Badger squad is too good to lose at home to Iowa; the Hawks will put up a great effort, but it won’t be enough. Wisconsin 24, Iowa 20.

Ho-Hum

Michigan State (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten) at Notre Dame (0-3) – These teams hate each other. Spartan fans were jacked for last season’s clash, and ND’s dramatic fourth quarter comeback in a monsoon drove the final nail in to John L. Smith’s MSU legacy. Mark D’Antonio is the new sheriff in East Lansing, and the results have been impressive. D’Antonio came to town preaching defense, and the Spartan D has responded; MSU is first nationally in sacks, 3^rd in tackles for loss, 18^th in turnover margin, and 19^th in scoring D. The competition hasn’t been fluff either, with MSU getting home wins over UAB, Bowling Green and Pitt to kick off the year. This will be MSU’s first road trip of 2007, and they return to a Notre Dame Stadium carrying a bit less mystique than it did when the Spartans planted their flag at ND’s 35-yard line following the team’s 2005 win. Plenty of ink has been spilled over ND’s horrific 2007 start, and they’re honestly (gasp) even worse than people think. Can you believe the Irish didn’t practice in pads or work on tackling to the ground since fall practice? And Weis wonders why his offensive line has given up 23 sacks, and the tackling has looked absolutely awful. This is a turning point game for the Irish; I think it’s possible that ND comes out sharp, better and dangerous, and gets a win over a Spartan team leaving home for the first time. But if MSU wins tomorrow, ND will begin the year 0-8; this is by far the most winnable game on the Irish schedule until Navy comes to town in Week Nine. For my money, ND will be better, Jimmy Claussen will show a few flashes of brilliance, but it won’t be quite enough. Michigan State 21, Notre Dame 14.

Purdue (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten) at Minnesota (1-2, 0-0 Big Ten) – If this Golden Gopher football team were a movie, it would be Rush Hour 3; tons of fireworks, explosions and hijinks hiding absolutely no substance. Get this: from the start of the 4^th quarters on, this season’s scoreboard reads Minnesota 66, Opponents 41. That’s 107 in the 4^th quarters and overtimes of just three games. On average, the Gophs are scoring 22 points a game after the third quarter bell, and they’re a lucky FG miss away from being 0-3. Obviously the offensive firepower is there, as QB Adam Weber has already thrown for 794 yards and 10 scores. Remarkably, Weber’s been sacked just once, but the 7 INT, included 4 against Florida Atlantic, are a problem that must be fixed right away. On paper, the offensive line has been great, protecting Weber and opening holes for Amir Pinnix (72 carries, 386 yards) and Weber (42 carries, 194 yards). Obviously, on defense Minnesota isn’t stopping anybody; Minny is 110^th nationally in pass efficiency D, 116^th in total yardage D, 104^th in scoring D, 119^th in turnover margin. OUCH. Curtis Painter & Co., on the other hand, have been dynamite, leading the Big Ten in yards, points and passing efficiency after 3 games. Painter has lit the lamp for 311 yards a game through three, and has an amazing 13-0 TD-INT ratio. The Boiler O-Line has given up just 2 sacks, and coupled with Painter’s pinpoint accuracy, Minnesota just won’t see the ball in good enough position to outscore this Purdue juggernaut. Purdue 44, Minnesota 24.

Boooooooooooooring

Northwestern (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) at #8 Ohio State (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten) – If Minnesota is Rush Hour 3, Northwestern is Scrubs: every season brings so much reason for hope, but eventually collapses under the weight of expectations. The Wildcats dropped a killing loss to Duke last week, ending the Devils’ 22-game losing streak, and setting the Pat Fitzgerald Era back significantly. The ‘Cats are decent at QB (CJ Bacher: 73-124, 838 yards) and RB (Brandon Roberson & Tyrell Sutton: 72 carries, 374 yards), but they don’t protect the QB, don’t get to the QB, don’t attack the othe team’s backfield, and don’t excel on special teams (105^th in punt returns, 91^st in kick returns). This is a bad recipe with which to head to Columbus, where Ohio State is puffing out their chests after reminding the world just how good their program is with last week’s solid win at Washington. This Buckeye defense is shaping up to be one of Tressel’s best, as they currently sit at either 1^st or 2^nd in the league in pass eff. D, scoring D, total D, and pass yards D. Neither of N’Western’s backs are good enough to create problems if the passing game doesn’t work, so look for another workmanlike domination by OSU. Ohio State 38, Northwestern 13.

Big Ten Power Rankings - Week Four

Here are my power ratings for the Big Ten heading in to Week Four. These rankings are based on how good I think the teams are right now, not how well I think they’ll finish, or what they’ll do based on their schedule. It’s a ranking of how the teams would do on a neutral field tomorrow.

1. Ohio State – If the Buckeyes steal a Big Ten crown this year, it’ll be Tressel’s best non National Championship coaching job. The win at Washington was huge; the Buckeyes went in to a hostile environment and made their first big statement since the Florida debacle, and laid the wood to an offense that had been surging. The emergence of Brandon Seine as a counter punch to Chris Wells gives OSU the best backs in the conference, and the defense has been rock solid against 2.5 good offenses.

2. Penn State – Buffalo isn’t the dead beat squad that most folks think, but the Lions’ slow start against the Bulls raised some eyebrows. Buffalo’s Drew Willy has been hot lately, but 330 passing yards against this Nittany D? I had the Lions #1 last week, but their propensity for slow starts so far dropped them a notch. PSU better beware of coming out of the gates slowly next week: an early lead might be all Michigan needs to find their sea legs.

3. Wisconsin – The pick nouveau to win the conference and challenge for a national title, the Badgers gave a piss-poor defensive showing against the Citadel, giving up 31 points en route to a too close for comfort 45-31 victory. This team has the potential to win the Big 10 going away, but isn’t there yet. It took a TD pass with 2 minutes left to beat UNLV, and the defense got worked by an FCS team. We’ll see how much Tyler Donovan has learned this week against Iowa; the Hawks will successfully bottle the run, forcing Donovan to throw more often than he’s used to.

4. Purdue – Honestly, this team could finish anywhere from 1^st to 7^th in the conference, and I wouldn’t be shocked. The offense has looked unreal, with Curtis Painter near the top ten nationally in both completions and yards, and second in passing TDs. How good is the defense, though? The Boiler D has given up 342 ypg against some pretty bad competition, and its just frankly hard to tell if they’re good yet. I know they’re not great, I know they don’t stink. I’m guessing we’ll find out how tough they are on October 8^th: Ohio State comes to town.

5. Indiana – Yep, I really do think they’re this good. Frankly, 5^th in the Big Ten this year doesn’t say a whole lot, but I think the Hoosiers are good enough to clear the top half of the conference and contend for an Alamo type bowl game. I wasn’t impressed with this squad until last week, when Kellen Lewis gave a studly dual-threat performance against one of the MAC’s stingiest D’s. Indy hasn’t played a team with good corners yet, and we’ll see how it affects Lewis’ ability to both run and pass when that happens. For now, I like this squad.

6. Michigan State – Mark D’Antonio has done about as well with this squad as could be expected; there’s three wins, 100 points, and zero flag planting on opponents fields. That probably won’t change this week, despite how much the Spartans and Irish really don’t like each other. We knew last year that Brian Hoyer was a competent QB; he’s looked great this year, but the O-Line has to protect better. 8 sacks in three games against this caliber of competition isn’t good.

7. Michigan – There have been plenty of columns written on the demise of the Wolverines in the last couple weeks, but this is still a bowl team that will scare teams throughout the year. The win over the Irish doesn’t show much, except that Michigan still cares, but the following stats do: the offensive line has been competent (40^th in the nation in sacks given up), the defensive line is still dangerous (13 sacks in 3 games), and Mike Hart is one tough SOB (3^rd in rushing yards, 1^st in guaranteed wins). This team will make a bowl game.

8. Illinois – I know, Illini fans, but hear me out. I think this is a quality football team that will be just on the cusp of making a bowl game. The win over Syracuse isn’t that impressive, although I think it’s a great W for this program. Juice Williams showed me something Saturday with his ability to get out of the pocket and run – it was a nice performance, and I hope as many people as possible watch the Juice vs. Kellen Lewis matchup this week. For all the ink that has been spilled the last few years over Drew Tate, Drew Stanton and Brett Basanez, these are two of the most exciting talents the Big Ten has seen in awhile.

9. Iowa – I learned a lot about the Hawkeyes Saturday. Not only did Iowa drop a rough one to Iowa State, but its two previous opponents (No. Illinois and Syracuse) were both embarrassed, with NIU ending Eastern Michigan’s 7 game losing streak, and ‘Cuse getting bombed by the Illini. The Iowa defensive front is a gang of monsters against the run, but couldn’t get any pressure on Bret Meyer. I’m not knocking the Iowa D; they’ve been great, giving up just six field goals in three games. But where is the offense? The very good duo of Albert Young and Damien Sims didn’t find running room against a pretty lackluster Cyclone front, and Jake Christensen couldn’t find receivers, despite having plenty of time to throw in most cases. To win in the Big Ten, the Hawks are going to have to do what Iowa has always done well: run the ball between the tackles, involve a very good TE (Tony Moeaki), and excel at play-action. Is Christensen up to the task?

10. Northwestern – Well, nothing to kill some buzz like ending Duke’s 22 game winless streak. The ‘Cats committed 13 penalties for a whopping 125 yards Saturday, and were stopped 4 times on 4^th downs. That’s how you lose to a team you outgain by 200 yards. What can you say now? The Duke offense had absolutely nothing going on the ground, getting just 2 ypc, but managed to win because Thaddeus Lewis only missed on 4 passes. The schedule actually is kind to N’Western, with winnable games against Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa and Indiana all in Evanston. Anybody that commits a penalty at practice this week oughta get tazed.

11. Minnesota – The Tim Brewster era is off to a whimper in the Twin Cities, with the Gophs just a shanked Miami (Oh.) FG away from being 0-3. How can a team that scores so easily in second halves be so brutal at the outset? Minny is getting outscored 65-28 in the first half, but dominating second halves and OT, outscoring teams 83-44. The defense is 116^th in D-I right now in total yards, and hasn’t really shown signs of stopping anyone, at any time.

Big Ten Week Three Review

Other than the big Illini win in the Dome, here’s a rundown of the Big Ten action from the weekend:

Game of the Week:

Iowa State 15, Iowa 13 – I was lucky enough to witness this one in person, and what more could you want from college football than a bitter rivalry game decided by an embattled kicker with one second to play. Sure, maybe neither of these two teams will be that good this year, but this was a great college football game; emotion, big hits, only 5 combined penalties, just one turnover and last second heroics. Bret Culbertson’s fifth field goal of the day sailed through the uprights with just one second to play, setting off a wild celebration in Ames, and sending Iowa to its 7^th defeat in 10 tries against their in-state rival.

Where do the Hawks Go From Here? There’s no need to panic just yet, as the Cyclones gave a big-time effort Saturday, and even very good Iowa teams struggle in Ames. The Hawkeye defense is very good, having allowed just six field goals and zero touchdowns in 12 quarters this year. But the offense couldn’t push around an average defensive line and Iowa’s receiving corps didn’t find many openings against State’s back four. If the offensive line can figure out how to open holes, this team can win eight games. If not, they’ll be home for the holidays.

Best of the Rest:

Michigan State 17, Pitt 13 – This game announced the arrival of the Mark D’Antonio era in East Lansing, with the Spartans building an early lead against a similarly acquitted opponent and holding it, using a late Brett Swenson field goal to extend their one point lead to the final margin. The Panthers had a chance at the end, but couldn’t connect on a 40-yard hail mary pass in the final seconds. Other than giving up one 62-yard TD pass, the Spartan defense was excellent.

Where do the Spartans Go From Here? Its on to South Bend, and there’s absolutely no excuse for a classic MSU meltdown next week against the woeful Irish. MSU is better and more athletic at every single position than Notre Dame, but who knows if there is some lingering animus over last season’s choke to end all chokes?

Florida Atlantic 42, Minnesota 39 – The Gophers might not be good, but at least they’re exciting. Surrendering 580 yards, 463 in the air, to the FAU Owls just isn’t something competent teams do, and Minnesota is a hair away from being 0-3 against 3 non BCS-teams right now. Minnesota put together another huge second half, getting 24 points starting at 10:28 in the third, but yikes: could they get out of the gate worse? Either Tim Brewster is the best half-time adjuster in the biz, or the worst pre-game motivator.

Where do the Gophers go From Here? Minnesota is looking like they may have the worst defense in the Big 10, and that’s a bad recipe to take in to battle with Purdue. The Boilers are dicing secondaries left and right; can Minny give themselves a chance by starting competently?

Wisconsin 45, Citadel 31 – This contest started like a heavyweight fight, with the Citadel matching Wisconsin score for score all the way through half time. PJ Hill never stopped running, logging 5 TDs and 168 yards rushing. Tyler Donovan looked efficient and effective, but where was the defense? 31 points against Citadel? 254 yards passing surrendered by this typically staunch unit? Weird.

Where do the Badgers go from Here? As weird as it sounds, Wisconsin is the last thing standing between the Big Ten and nationwide calls of “Overrated” right now. Michigan was exposed against Appalachian State, Ohio State still carries the doubts from last year’s Florida debacle, and the mantle has been passed to Wisconsin. With Minnesota, Michigan, Northwestern and Iowa all suffering embarrassing losses in the last two weeks, the whispers of ‘overrated’ are starting to increase. A great season by the Badgers will be the best antidote.

Ho-Hum

Duke 20, Northwestern 14 – Oh, Wildcats. How did this happen? Northwestern outpassed Duke 368-246, outrushed them 138-63, and had more first downs 25-15. And yet, somehow, thanks mostly to 13 penalties for 125 yards, Northwestern ended the nation’s longest losing streak at 22. CJ Bacher tossed for 368 yards, including a first half pick in the end zone, killing one of many promising drives.

Where do the Wildcats go from Here? They go straight to Columbus, everyone’s favorite Big Ten destination to get healthy…not. If the ‘Cats can overcome the shame of losing to Duke, they may yet find a couple winnable games down the road – they won’t have a chance at OSU, but the Sept. 29^th date against Michigan in Evanston is still circled on the calendar.

Ohio State 33, Washington 14 – This was a ho-hum affair, and that’s just what Jim Tressel wanted to see. Ohio State trailed 7-3 at half, but asserted their dominance immediately in the third quarter, getting a 68 yard TD pass from Todd Boeckman to Brian Robiskie and a 14-yard TD run by Chris Wells to grab a 17-7 lead they never relinquished. By the 59 minute mark, OSU was up 27-7, and had earned back a bit of the respect from last year’s national title game.

Where do the Buckeyes Go From Here? With the way the rest of the conference looks, they may go all the way to a Big Ten title. Who looks better so far? The Bucks should cruise to 8-0 if they can get past Purdue, and then they trip to Happy Valley on October 27^th. For now, the focus is on two tune-ups against N’Western and Minnesota, and getting QB Todd Boeckman as many reps as possible.

Indiana 41, Akron 24 – The Hoosiers survived some second quarter defensive gaffes to hold off a solid Akron team, and Kellen Lewis looked an awful lot like Antawn Randle-El, throwing for 137, rushing for 199, and accounting for all 5 Indiana TDs. Equally impressive was Lewis’ passing efficiency when not dashing out of the pocket – he went 19 of 24.

Where do the Hoosiers go from Here? A 3-0 start is a rarity in Bloomington, and with games left against Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Ball State and Northwestern, getting to 7 wins looks very possible. Kellen Lewis has been unreal against the early schedule; we’ll see how he looks against Big Ten Ds, but for now – we’re awfully impressed.

Penn State 45, Buffalo 24 – For 27 minutes Buffalo and Penn State looked like well-matched teams, working to a 3-3 tie just three minutes before the half. The Lions got a couple quick TD throws from Anthony Morelli to take a 17-3 lead in to half, and built the lead to 31-3 before Buffalo finally scored again with 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Giving up some points to Buffalo isn’t the disaster it used to be, but still – there are some raised eyebrows in State College after seeing Drew Willy throw for 330 yards.

Where do the Lions go From Here? With Wisconsin fairly non-impressive and Michigan probably out of the picture, Penn State is thinking Big Ten title. This week PSU heads to the Big House, and the results will be fascinating. Can this defense shut down a Michigan team that finally has a bit of momentum on its side. State avoids Northwestern and Minnesota, so there aren’t getting any favors there. To win, the defense has to stay awesome.

Boorrrrrrrriinng

Michigan 38, Notre Dame 0 – Yeah, it was boring. We warned you. Michigan is a good football team dressed up in a bad start, and Notre Dame is an awful football team. Mike Hart will run on anybody and everybody this year and, if Chad Henne returns, I won’t be that worried about Michigan for the rest of the year. This isn’t a conference title team, but it’ll be hard for them to finish worse than 4^th in the conference if they stay healthy.

Where does Michigan go from here – You thought the ND game was big? Wait until Penn State arrives this week. A win against the Lions would instantly erase most Ann Arbor memories of the big Appalachian State incident and reestablish Michigan as a player in the Big Ten race. This is a huge football game for the rest of the Big Ten season, probably one of the biggest conference tilts in recent years not involving Ohio State.

Purdue 45, Central Michigan 22 – Purdue lit up another MAC team with a weak secondary. Curtis Painter is starting to get plenty of situation in these circumstances – he has 952 yards and 13 TDs in just three games. I don’t care if the secondaries stink – he’s doing something right. Establishing the run with Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor has probably been Painter’s biggest asset, and the two combined for three first quarter first downs and 172 yards overall. The skilled, versatile receiving corps has helped, too.

Where do the Boilers Go From Here? How will the defense react when the offense isn’t scoring points by the truckload. Its easy enough to look decent when your offense spots you a 31 point lead, but when games are tight, it’s a different story. Eventually, Painter will make some mistakes, and the defense will need to be on the ball. October 6^th and Ohio State are decent bets for when this phenomenon may first occur.