VA Tech BB Preview: NC State & Miami

With two big, big wins in the past week, the Hokies are right on track for an NCAA tournament bid. Currently, Tech sits third in the ACC pyramid. The league will likely land at 7 teams in the dance, so if the Hokies can stay in the conference’s top 5, they’ll be in the dance: period.

Did you see this coming? I didn’t. Can it last? Let’s see:

at NC State (14-7, 3-4 ACC)

The ‘Pack is a team with eerily similar stats to VA Tech this year. Tech’s scoring 69.2 points a game; NC State scores 67.6. Tech gives up 63.3 a night; the Wolfpack give up 66.6. Both teams are 2-4 on the road; Tech is 9-1 at home, NC State is 9-2.

So, why in teams that fill a box score so similarly (at least right now), has one squad dominated the other so much? NC State has won the last five meetings in the series, dating back to a January 19, 2005 one point Tech win. The run got particularly rough last year as the Wolfpack swept three meetings by an average of 14.7 points an outing.

Last year, NC State exerted dominance in the paint, abusing Tech’s undersized squad with an abundance of height. Senior Gavin Grant is back for another swing through the league; the 6-foot-7 old reliable from the Bronx is having a year that mirrors his 2007 ACC campaign. Grant is averaging 14 points and 4.4 boards a year, numbers that are slightly down in correlation with an average of five less minutes a night from last year. As you see so often in players’ senior years, Grant has finally begun to value the basketball, dropping his turnover numbers from 4.2 last year to 2.2 this year. That’s two extra possessions he’s keeping in the Wolfpack’s hands this year. That’s good stuff.

Grant’s been around; J.J. Hickson is the new sheriff in town. NC State’s leading scorer is a young buck, a 6-foot-9 freshman from Marietta, Georgia. By the time Hickson is done in Raleigh, I’m predicting he’s one of those players that seems like he’s been around forever. Most of the ACC is already sick of his 15.0/8.4 average. Hickson is a consistent scorer, with 7 of his last 8 games in the 10-16 point range, and he’s come on strong lately off the glass, snaring 4 straight double-doubles. One thing he obviously hasn’t learned to do yet is take care of the ball as well as Grant. Hickson turns the ball over almost 3 times a game. Tech will be forced to double him in the post early and often. Yep, the Hokies will be committing a lot of their defensive resources to double downs on Hickson. So who’s the real difference maker in the game?

My money’s on Courtney Fells, NC State’s third-leading scorer and most frequent three point threat. With Tech devoting bodies to Hickson, there are going to be kick outs. Fells will be the recipient of his share of dishes, and if he gets hot, it’s probably game over for the Hokies. When Fells runs cold, as he did against Duke (0-for-5 FG), and Michigan State (0-for-7 FG), the Wolfpack get bombed. When he’s hot, as he has been in making 50% of his threes in five of the last six games, this is a dangerous NC State team.

Prediction: It’s really hard for me to pick against a team that has owned the Hokies since 2005. The ‘Pack still has big bodies, and Fells has been red hot lately. Too much Fells; the streak runs to 6. NC State by 8.

Miami (15-6, 2-5 ACC)

Consider yourself warned: this team has moxie. The Hurricanes battled Duke like few teams have this year, trading punch for metaphorical punch, and doling out more than a few real ones as well before succumbing late down the stretch, 88-73.

Junior Jack McClinton is the rock ‘em-sock ‘em heart and soul of this Canes squad. McClinton is a feisty one; he can score in bunches, make great passes, commit egregious turnovers, and all the rest. He’s like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get – except heart, and a lot of it.

Sophomore James Dews is a relative newbie in the McClinton mode who’s earned his keep this year, along with a bunch more playing time, by being a solid three-point option. Dews has raised his percentage beyond the arc from 27.6% to 41.7% - a dramatic and necessary improvement. Dews mailed in 20 against Georgia Tech and 17 at Providence – two of the ‘Canes biggest wins of the season.

Fifth year senior Anthony King is the inside threat most likely to bust the Hokies’ chops. In his fifth year in a ‘Canes outfit, King is about as steady as big men get. For four straight years, King has been a rock, averaging between 6 and 9 points a game and 7 and 9 boards. This year – he’s improved in a couple corollary categories. Never before has King boasted an assist:turnover ratio higher than .68; this year, it’s 1.24. To make the problem worse, you can’t just hammer away on King if he’s going off. His 73% FT percentage is great by big man standards; if one player on the ‘Canes is likely to have a break out game and break the Hokies’ back, it’s this guy.

Prediction: I don’t see Tech losing this game at home. Miami’s success has been come on its home court in south Florida, and they haven’t much north of Interstate 4. There’s too much at stake as Tech tries to hold serve this weekend; Vassallo goes for 18, and it’s Hokies by 11.

VA Tech BB Preview: Duke & Boston College

As Tech’s trip toward postseason play marches on, it’s back to Cassell on Thursday for the annual anticipated throwdown with ACC bully, Duke. Just 45 hours later, the Hokies will be in Chestnut Hill tipping off against Boston College. What’s in store for January’s fourth week? Let’s check it out.

DUKE (15-1, 3-0 ACC)

Biggest Win: Marquette, 77-73

Worst Loss: vs. Pitt, 65-64

The Devils are good. Anyone surprised by this information probably hasn’t watched a college basketball game in my lifetime, and certainly hasn’t been following the ACC, which Duke has dominated the last 15 years, earning numerous ACC titles and final four appearances.

This year’s edition of team Krzyzewski is a classic Durham outfit, scoring points in bunches (85.0 ppg, 9^th nationally), preventing other teams from scoring (3^rd nationally in victory margin, and just generally blowing everyone out that gets in their way (8 wins by 22 points or more).

DeMarcus Nelson leads the Devils in scoring (14.3), completing a career that’s steadily developed from a 6.2 ppg/4.5 rpg season as a freshman in 2004. The biggest change in Nelson’s numbers this year is a 50% jump in his assist-to-turnover ratio. Assists are up from 2.0 to 2.9, turnovers are down from 2.5 to 2.3. It’s hard to say exactly how to stop Nelson, since his greatest strength is his consistency. In 10 battles this year, Nelson’s been right between 9 and 16 points. In 12 games this season, he’s been between 5 and 8 rebounds. Nelson is hard to stop, and despite logging 32 minutes a game, he keeps himself in the game by not fouling much. However, despite being Duke’s leading scorer, he’s not a stone cold killer in the mold of JJ Redick or some of Coach K’s other great gunslingers. Keep him right around his average of 14, and Tech can win.

In what some suggested would be a rebuilding year for the Devils, the rebuilding might be starting with Kyle Singler. Singler is a long, 6-foot-8 freshman out of the great northwest that’s roaring out of the gates with a 13 point, 6 rebound a game average. Most impressive in these early stages of his career, Singler has already shown a proclivity for showing up in big games. The frosh dropped in 25 points against Marquette, 13 on just 7 shots against Wisconsin, and 17 against Pitt and Clemson. That’s an 18-per game average in what have probably been Duke’s biggest four games of the year. If he blows up, the Hokies have no chance to win. It’s that simple.

Duke’s other weapons are mostly young, too. Jon Scheyer, a sophomore from Chicago’s north shore, has come on strong lately, raising his average to 11 points a game with 8 double-figure outings in his last 10 games. Sophie Gerald Henderson has doubled his output to 13 a night off last year’s average of 6.8. Junior Greg Paulus has seen minutes, points, boards and assists all drop this year; is he being rested for the stretch drive? Time will tell.

Prediction: I know, I know: we’ve heard it all before – VA Tech can’t hang with Duke, they’re outmatched physically. The Hokies have battled Duke as well as anyone the last couple years, but I think they’re facing too high a mountain this time. Without Jeff Allen to match up on some of the Devils’ bigger bodies, VA Tech faces an even tougher battle. Duke by 13.

BOSTON COLLEGE (12-5, 3-1 ACC)

Biggest Win: Miami (Fl.), 76-66

Worst Loss: Robert Morris, 57-51

The BC Eagles have 12 wins in 17 games, but have benefited from one of the coziest early season schedules in the country. BC hasn’t had to leave Chestnut Hill for 5 games, and only three of those have been true road battles. BC’s list of early season victims isn’t impressive, save Maryland, the tally includes New Hampshire, Fl. Atlantic, Mercer, Rhode Island, Northeastern, Sacred Heart and Longwood. This is not a battle-tested 12-win team, and the seams are going to start to show during the ACC stretch drive.

Gone is Jared Dudley, but Tyrese Rice has picked up a big of his slack, logging 19.5 points and a clutch 5.3 assists an outing so far this season. Rice is quick, with fast hands (1.6 steals/game) and an ability to flat go off from the free throw line (11 straight FTs made in two games this year). You can’t foul him; he’s hard to guard. The absence of Allen in the middle will make his dribble drive penetration even more problematic.

The man literally filling Dudley’s spot has been Shamari Spears, a sophomore who’s burst in to the starting lineup by showing an aggressiveness and hunger for the basketball. Spears averages over 7 boards a night. Spears has a tendency to disappear in BC losses. Spears only contributed 6 against Kansas, 8 against Robert Morris and 8 against UMASS. When he’s not scoring and getting some putbacks, or worse, taking himself out of the game via foul trouble, the Eagles really struggle. I truly believe that the key to winning tough basketball games is stopping an opponent’s second and third options, not their first.

In that spirit, freshman Corey Raji can’t be allowed to go off either. Raji has been inconsistent as they come, pouring in 24 and 17 against Providence and Maryland but contributing less than 5 points several times. Looking down the BC roster, you see its full of two things: young players, and wide, stout bodies. Rakim Sanders, a 6-foot-5 freshman scores 12.3 points a game. Biko Paris is another freshman, but his specialty is dishing the ball, earning 2.5 assists a game in limited minutes. Sophomore Tyler Roche scores 5 points a game, and could do some damage this weekend.

Prediction: If this game were at Cassell, I’d be picking the Hokies. I don’t think the Eagles have road legs, but the scheduling committee has given VA Tech an extremely stout test. Less than two days after playing Duke, the Hokies have to take a fairly long road trip against a team that basically sleeps at their home arena. Blame the schedule makers. BC by 9.

Virginia Tech BB Preview: UVA & GA Tech

After a monumental win against the Terps to stay unbeaten at Cassell, the Hokies turn road warriors this week at UVA and Georgia Tech. Who’s waiting out there on the road? Check it out:

VIRGINIA (10-4, 0-1 ACC)

Biggest Win: at Arizona, 75-72

Worst Loss: Seton Hall, 74-60

The instate Cavs are near the bottom of the ACC ledger right now, but the conference campaign is just one game old, and the standings certainly won’t stay that way. UVA is a dangerous, poised team with some quality senior leadership that will be a tough, tough out in February and beyond. Let’s look at some of the Hoos’ main weapons.

As he has for three years now, senior guard Sean Singletary paces the Cavs. Singletary is a beast, plain and simple, a 6-foot dynamo that fills up a box score, averaging 17.9 points, 3.9 boards and a career high 6.6 assists per game. Singletary has been in double figures every game this year, and has dropped in 20+ on 6 occasions in his senior campaign. Singletary shoots, passes, and attacks well. The only significant chink in his armor is an increasing propensity to commit turnovers. He’s been asked to handle a bigger portion of the ball handling duties this year, and that responsibility has resulted in bumped up numbers in both assists and turnovers. Singletary averages nearly 5 turnovers a game, so Tech will likely have to pressure him and hope it can force a few gaffes.

Adrian Joseph has been UVA’s best front court player this year, and Joseph has certainly been a pleasant surprise. A contributor in years past, the senior has answered the bell this season, seeing his rebound numbers leap from 3.5 to 7.8 a game, and adding a few more points to go with the boards, scoring 11.9 up from 7.2 a game last year. Joseph is a dangerous player because of his nose for the ball and his ability to hit the outside shot. This is a 6-foot-7 man who shoots 40% from beyond the arc, and nearly 80% from the stripe. He’s not quite the size of ACC big men that have burnt Tech big time in recent years, but if any Cav is going to kill the Hokies singlehandedly, my money is on Joseph, not Singletary. UVA has lost 4 games this year, and in three of those games, Joseph has scored 6 points or less. If that doesn’t tell you that stopping Joseph is the key to this game, nothing will.

The Cavs have an ace sharpshooter in Mamadi Diane, the Potomac product that has drained a three-ball in 12 of 14 outings this season. Diane is hitting 48% of his threes on the year, and while that number just can’t last until March, Diane is certainly hot lately, with 16 of his last 36 made in competition. I’m always amazed when stud three-point shooters struggle at the free throw line, but Diane is only 70% from the charity stripe. If the game is tight late, the Cavs would be much better suited to foul Diane than let him get a clear look at the hoop from long distance.

Prediction: I don’t like this matchup for the Hokies. There’s certainly the momentum factor in Tech’s favor coming off the thrilling Maryland win, but UVA is really tough at home, and I don’t think VA Tech can keep up with the Hoos’ 79 points a game scoring pace. The Hokies take one on the chin. UVA by 12.

GEORGIA TECH (7-8, 0-2 ACC)

Biggest Win: at Notre Dame, 70-69

Worst Loss: UNC Greensboro, 83-74

If the Hokies are going to grab a road win in the ACC, this is their best chance. Tech is 7-8 and will be 7-9 after the Tar Heels come to town Wednesday night. The Jackets were hit hard by defections after last season, and come Saturday, will likely be experiencing the inevitable hangover the game after playing the nation’s top team. GA Tech is the perfect team against which Greenberg’s Gang can reach up and grab one away from Cassell.

It’s safe to say the Jackets are still trying to find their best rotation. Not a single GA Tech player averages more than 30 minutes per game, and 11 average 10 minutes or more. That’s an astounding amount of balance in minutes. Anthony Morrow, Tech’s senior guard, is the team’s most experienced player, and Morrow has had an up and down career. After a breakout sophomore campaign that saw Morrow average 16 points and 4 boards a game, he saw his minutes, points and rebounds all dip dramatically during last year’s campaign. But Morrow is back this year, leading the team with 15 and 5 a night, and an improved A:T ratio to boot, 1.21:1. Morrow has one of the sweetest touches you’ll see outside a massage parlor. The senior is shooting 47% from threeland, and small sample size isn’t a problem. He’s already buried 36 bombs in 15 games: 2.4 a game. Face guarding him and denying the ball is Tech’s biggest challenge in this game.

In the post, GA Tech will run out a rotation of several bigger guys who will come in with fresh legs and a hunger for the glass. Jeremis Smith is a senior averaging 10 points and 7 boards a game, who isn’t nearly as prone to turnovers as most other big men. Putting an early foul or two on Smith’s sheet would help a lot, because the longer he’s in the game, the harder Hokie post men have to work to keep up. Zach Peacock is another 6-8 banger, but he’s younger and less experienced. Still, he uses his height well, and unlike Smith, can drop in the occasional outside shot. And as long as we’re counting big men, we can’t forget Alade Aminu, a 6-foot-10 mountain from Stone Mountain, Georgia. At just 225 lbs., he’s not the strongest player on Tech’s roster, and it’s shown the last few weeks. After roaring out of the gate, Aminu has averaged only 4.7 points a game the last 9 outings; keeping him out of the box score and on the bench is another VA Tech key to victory.

Prediction: What hurdle will be hardest for the Hokies to leap, the sum total of GA Tech’s post men, or the sole force of Anthony Morrow? I’m not sure, but I think if VA Tech can win the battle in one of the two areas, it can get the win. Call it a gut feeling, but I don’t think the Hokies are going winless this week. Hokies by 5.

VA Tech BB Preview: Hofstra

There’s only one opponent for VA Tech over Christmas Week 2007, and it’s the struggling Hofstra Pride on Friday the 28^th. Tech will be looking to salvage some pride after a few recent rough outings. What’s the scoop? Read On:

Hofstra (2-6, 0-1 CAA)

The Pride currently occupy the cellar hole of the Colonial League, made famous to Hokie fans in recent years by the tourney successes of George Mason and James Madison. But Hofstra is on the other end of the 8-ball from those two mid-major beasts, staring at the business end of a 2-6 mark that has seen ugly early season losses to Holy Cross, Stony Brook, St. Francis and Fordham. Ouch. The only two wins have come by a deuce over Manhattan and Charlotte; but during a four game losing streak, the Pride dropped all four by four points or less. So I guess you could say they’ve got a lot of early experience playing in close contests.

The Hofstra attack is dominated by senior guard Antoine Agudio, a four year starter closing in on 2,000 career points. Agudio currently sits at 1,888 points, and its fair to say he knows a little bit about putting the ball in the basket. Agudio has averaged 15, 17, 20 and this year, 26.8 points a game. If he’s still averaging 27 points a game by year’s end, he’ll start to get some national attention as he approaches the 2,500 career point mark.

Agudio is a consistent outside shooter in just about every way. He’s been over 42% from beyond the arc in every year of his career, and he’s consistent game to game as well: in every game but one this year, he’s made at least 3 3-point buckets, and he’s shot at least 6 in every game. He’ll shoot, and he’ll make alot. No way around that. The key to stopping Agudio is - you can’t, really. He’s going to score. But with the added pressure of needing to carry a totally bad team this year, he’s forcing the issue a bit too much. Agudio’s turnover numbers are up to 3.9 a game from last year’s 2.2. If Agudio gets his 25, but Tech can force him in to 4-5 turnovers, Coach Greenberg ought to be satisfied with that performance.

The real key to beating Hofstra is to just not let anyone else beat you. Agudio will get his points. He scored 28 of his team’s 47 at Holy Cross, but the Pride still lost by 14. There just aren’t any other credible weapons. Charles Jenkins is a capable alternative, at 6-foot-3, 220 lb., with a 12.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg average line in his freshman season. He’ll contribute, but he’s nowhere near the put away threat Agudio presents, and not as deft with the outside shot either. Jenkins, too, has committed 3.9 turnovers a game; I think we’ll see as much pressure on the opposing guard corps as we’ve seen this year.

Beyond Agudio and Jenkins, Hofstra has relied on a steady rotation of bodies. No one else averages more than 26 minutes a game, but the leader is transfer Darren Townes, a 6-7 junior from New York City who leads the team with 5.8 boards a night. Townes is mostly a scoring threat on the put back, and hasn’t made a three all year. He’ll get a few rebounds. Some of the other threats are freshman swing Nathaniel Lester, who has exploded in to double digits in three of the last five, junior forward Dane Johnson, the biggest body on the squad, and Lithunian junior forward Arminas Urbutis.

Prediction: Tech is going to win this game by a lot. Antoine Agudio can only do so much. He’ll drain a few threes on the bigger stage, by if the Hokies don’t win this game going away, there’s big reason for concern. VA Tech by 19.

Preview: Virginia Tech at Virginia

This is it. In-state ACC rivals that took last spring’s basketball crown down to the wire are headed to the finish line neck and neck in football as well. No hype necessary. Who wins the Commonwealth and the division in 2007? Let’s get to it:

Virginia (9-2, 6-1 ACC)

Offense: The Cavs haven’t been very good on offense this year. Their rushing attack ranks 88th nationally, the passing attack is 73rd. On total yards, they rank 99th. Scoring, 80th. However, that being said, the ACC has been a league dominated by defense. Even the 99th ranked total yardage D is only 8th out of 12 in the league, not bad considering there are only 20 worse teams in all of FBS, and 4 of them happen to be in the ACC.
QB Jameel Sewell ranks 5th in the league in total offense and is one of the big reasons the Cavs have been able to squeak out 5 wins by 2 points or less. Sewell has made some big throws down the stretch to put UVA in positions to kick late FGs or run clock at crucial moments. In the two recent games where his arm hasn’t been the story, his legs have been. Sewell ran for 64 yards against Pitt and 66 against UCONN, meaning he’s put up 200 yards of total offense for 7 straight games, dating back to September 22. You can’t buy that kind of consistency at QB, and Sewell deserves serious consideration for ACC MVP - not best player, but most valuable player.
The running game isn’t great, but sophomore back Mikell Simpson has come on in recent weeks. After gaining negative -9 yards in the Cavs’ first 7 games, Simpson has come on in full time duty for 328 yards in the last 4 games, giving UVA an efficient counterpunch to Sewell’s passing. Simpson hasn’t had a big game against a top-flight D of VA Tech’s caliber, so this test should be interesting. Keith Payne hasn’t seen much playing time since Simpson started to heat up, but when he goes, the freshman can gain some yards as well; 69 against Maryland and 70 vs. MTSU. Sewell gets a few carries as well, averaging about 20 yards a game rushing, a decent number considering how harmful the 2.07 sacks per game surrendered by the Cavs hurt his rushing numbers.
As for the rest of the offense, UVA does a nice job of distribution, getting 3 catches per game from three different receivers. Simpson hasn’t been consistent throughout the year, but his astounding 13-catch, 152 yard performance against Maryland has him at the top of the catch list. Jonathan Stupar, a senior TE, has been a rock for Sewell, catching 2 or more passes in every game but one all year. Stupar is one of the best safety valves you’ll see, and look for him to have a huge game as Sewell will likely have to throw a lot of dump passes in the face of VA Tech’s pass rush.
The offensive line has been pretty ho hum, giving up 2.09 sacks a game, 5th in the league. Sewell does have some scramble ability, so that’s not a great number. Like every unit on the squad, this bunch has stepped it up in the fourth quarter. They won’t wear down - VA Tech has to bring heat for 60 minutes.

Defense: Overall, the D has been the strength of the Cavs, by far. 17.45 points allowe per game is good for 10th nationally, and second in the ACC to only your Hokies. The D is also 18th in yards, and the squad as a whole is 39th in turnover margin. You’d be hard pressed to find an overall unit as balanced as UVA. The Cavs are 23rd nationally against the pass and 18th against the run. More than anything, this may be a function of how many close games UVA has been in, so teams rarely go in to strictly run or pass modes.
The front seven is pretty darn good, ranking 13th nationally in sacks, and that all starts with Chris Long, son of legendary linebacker Howie Long. Long is a ferocious talent at DL, with 12 sacks on the year, good for an ACC-leading, 5th national average of 1.09 per game. Unlike some other big sack guys, Long isn’t just a sack artist, either. He has 69 tackles, 19 of which have come in opponents’ backfields. Stop Long, move the ball. It’s that simple.
Long isn’t the only big skill player in the front seven, though. Junior LB Clint Sintim has 67 tackles on the year and 5 solo sacks. Sintim is hard to erase from the the game plan, with 7 or more tackles in each of the last three games. Junior LB Jon Copper is UVA’s leading tackler, with 92 stops, good for 11th in the ACC. Copper has hit the 7 tackle mark in every single game this year, an astounding comment on the junior’s commitment and consistency. He’s also come from the LB spot to get 10 TFL, 3 sacks and 2 picks, and is easily the squad’s most versatile playmaker.

Special Teams: Senior Chris Gould doesn’t have a ton of FGs (1.36 per game, 8th in the league), but he does have at least one in 10 of the 11 games and has hit big kicks in the clutch to help UVA get the close ones. On the year, he’s 15 of 19, a pretty doggone solid number, and if he has a chance to win this game in the final minute, VA Tech is in trouble. Punter Ryan Weigand is outstanding, averaging 45.86 per kick, 4th nationally and best in the league. His giant foot has been a key to UVA’s success in the field position, defensive battles of the ACC.

Prediction: It all comes down to this. In my opinion, if VA Tech wins this game, they’re division champs and probably headed to the title game as a favorite. If they win, this year has a chance to be a success, with 11 and even 12 wins a possibility. If the Hokies lose, however, the season is a disappointment, and will be marked by a “so close” memory.
There are times in life when two smart people can look at the same data and draw vastly different conclusions. It is certainly possible to look at UVA’s season and see a team full of clutch players, to see a team with a huge heart, to see a team that “knows how to win close ones”. And that’s probably all true, to some degree.
But, frankly, I see an average team that has gotten very good bounce, good break, and borderline call possible down the stretch, and is truly 6 points away from not being bowl eligible. VA Tech is 3.5 point favorites, and will cover the spread and then some. VA Tech 30, Virginia 17.

Virginia Tech vs. Miami Preview

Tech kept rolling against the Seminoles and I got back on the horse with an accurate prediction on the Tech vs. Florida State game. How will both of us perform this week when the wounded Canes come to town? Here we go:

Miami (5-5, 2-4 ACC)

Offense: Beware the wounded animal. Miami got absolutely humiliated in its final Orange Bowl game ever, 48-0, by the Cavaliers. How has it come this far? There’s been plenty, plenty of ink spilled lately over the Hurricanes’ descent from prominence, so I won’t beat the drum too hard here. But it still amazes me how this squad that was the boogeyman for my generation of school kids has fallen to mid-tier ACC status at best.

Looks like Kyle Wright will go in Blacksburg after a horrendous 9-21, 94 yards, 3 INT outing against the Cavs that made Virginia look as if a Tech should be added to their jerseys. The senior certainly doesn’t want to be as the rare ‘Cane QB that doesn’t lead his squad to a bowl game, but he hasn’t completed more than 9 passes in a game since October 6^th. Sure, he’s been splitting time under center, but the question has to be asked: even if he has the full confidence of his coaches, can Wright play strong for an entire game? The Tech D should be able to feast on this guy. His big outings this year have come against weak competition: 224, 275, 230 and 302 against FIU, TAMU, Duke and No. Carolina. Against Oklahoma, GA Tech, Florida State and Virginia? Not an outing above 94 yards, and a 2:4 TD:INT ratio.

‘Cane RB Javarris James has the bloodlines, and he may also hold the key to Miami’s offensive success. In James’ 5 biggest outings of the year, the ‘Canes haven’t lost in regulation (they went down in OT on his biggest performance against NC State). In games where he runs for 55 yards or less, Miami is 1-4. Obviously, the young James gives Miami a spark it can’t duplicate elsewhere. RB Graig Cooper has been more solid game to game (7 of 10 games between 48 and 80 yards), but isn’t quite the sparkplug James is. Both players are young and should struggle against a hungry VA Tech D.

Darnell Jenkins is the only Hurricane WR that has even been passable as a big play threat this season, at 25 catches for 570 yards, but even then, the 2.5 catches per game is a really small number for a program built on speedy playmakers at the edge. Jenkins has been hut by QB play, to be sure, but hasn’t been nearly consistent enough to warrant high praise. The entire WR corps has been plagued by inconsistency, as almost all have had one big game but not been able to get open steadily. Lance Leggett, Sam Shields and Cooper all have some potential to hurt a defense, but don’t do it consistenly.

Defense: The D isn’t awful statistically but doesn’t have the stunning athleticism of the past top ‘Cane units. Overall, the D is 27^th nationally and 6^th in the ACC in yards surrendered, but just 43^rd and 8^th in points given up. The ‘Cane D hasn’t been mentally tough enough to be able to get the big stops needed to stop yards from turning in to points.

Up front, Miami does have 3 of the league’s sackers in Calais Campbell, Vegas Franklin and Teraz McCray. This is a unit where the ‘Canes have been good this year, at 4^th in the ACC in sacks and 3^rd in TFL. Campbell is probably the best athlete of the bunch. He’s picked off a pass, caught a pass, and registered 13 TFL and 7 sacks this year. For his career, the 42 TFL have resulted in 144 lost yards – that’s a fairly high number, and indicates that when he gets in to the backfield, he makes it count for a substantial loss. Senior DL Franklin hasn’t done much lately, but looked great with a combined 3 sacks against Duke and TAMU. If he steps it up for his final trip to Blacksburg, the Tech line could have some issues defending both these guys.

Senior LB Tavares Gooden is the ‘Canes’ leading tackler, with 91 on the year, including 10 at Florida State and 14 against Duke and Oklahoma. Gooden mostly hangs back and makes stops on the mid-range plays; only 3 of his 91 tackles have come in the backfield. Getting him to miss an assignment will be a tough task for the Tech offense. Sophomore Colin McCarthy is Miami’s most versatile LB, with 57 tackles, a pick, and 10 TFL on the year. McCarthy could be Miami’s next top-flight ‘backer if he continues to improve in coverage.

The pass defense has numbers that look fine at first glance, but look closer: despite being just 2^nd in the league in yards surrendered, the ‘Canes are 9^th in the league in pass efficiency defense. So teams aren’t trying to throw all that much against Miami, but when they do, it doesn’t prove too hard. This plays right in to Virginia Tech’s hands. Randy Phillips is the most dangerous ‘Cane in the secondary; not only does Phillips have a team-leading 5 INT, but boasts a combined 150 return yards on the 5 picks. When Phillips snatches the ball, everybody look out, dude’s a home run threat. 3 of the picks have come in the last 3 weeks. As long as Glennon doesn’t let Phillips snap off a big play, VA Tech should be able to throw.

Special Teams: Francesco Zampogna lost his job after early season struggles saw him make just 9 of 14 FGs. Darren Daley took over at Florida State, cashing in on all 5 kicks, but then tanked on two FGs against NC State that could have helped Miami beat the Wolfpack. Who knows what we’ll get this weekend, but odds are, it won’t be good. Miami is actually pretty bad in all areas of special teams. Punter Matt Bosher is 11^th in the league, as is Graig Cooper on punt returns. Advantage: VA Tech.

Prediction: I think its reasonable to think Miami may come out with an inspired effort on the heels of last week’s embarrassing OB finale. On the other hand, I think its reasonable to expect Miami to come out lifeless after last week’s embarrassing OB finale. So really, I don’t know what’s going to happen. I do know that VA Tech isn’t going to lose this game, not in Blacksburg, not on Senior Day, not one chance. Virginia Tech 32, Miami 14.

Virginia Tech vs. Florida State preview

Just when you thought the tough part of the schedule was in the past, here comes Florida State. The Seminoles beat BC in a game that might go a long way toward getting FSU’s once proud program off the mat to become ACC title contenders again. Let’s take a look at the challenges FSU presents.

FLORIDA STATE (6-3, 3-3 ACC)

Offense: Drew Weatherford might define the word “embattled.” It seems like the junior QB has won, lost, and won the QB job all over again almost every week this year, but after all of it, Weatherford finally seems to be peaking. Check out the numbers the last two weeks: 35-47 for 339 yards vs. Duke, 29-45 for 354 yards at Florida State. When you pair those kind of numbers with the raw athleticism FSU boasts on the edges all over the field, the combination is there for a very potent offensive attack. Weatherford has thrown just 1 INT in 192 attempts this year, a gigantic improvement on the 11 picks he threw in 311 attempts last year.

Antone Smith is FSU’s leading rusher, with 643 yards on 162 attempts. With Xavier Lee now riding pine, FSU doesn’t have anyone other than Smith with more than 87 rushing yards on the season. Obviously, the onus is on Smith to carry the load, and FSU seems to now exactly how much they want him to do offensively. The last three weeks, Smith has lugged the pig 22, 23 and 22 times. Another added consideration for the Hokies on D is that all of Smith’s big receiving days have come with Weatherford under center. Smith caught 5 passes in both the Clemson and Boston College games; Tech needs to mark him coming out of the backfield.

Preston Parker, Greg Carr and De’Cody Fagg represent a fearsome trio of talented receivers. All three are in the ACC’s top 9 in yards, and Parker leads the way with 46 catches for 609 yards and three scores. De’Cody Fagg is the hottest right now, with 15 catches and 245 yards from the hot hand of Weatherford in the last two weeks. The offensive line has allowed 1.78 sacks per game this year, good for 55^th nationally and 5^th in the league. The protection numbers aren’t bad, but considering the unit spent a good portion of the year blocking for the elusive Xavier Lee, and the pretty bad rushing numbers (96^th nationally), the offensive line has to be seen has a weakness Tech must exploit.

Defense: Although not quite the wall-to-wall athlete fest of old, Florida State’s defense is still a fearsome unit with big play potential in every line of defense. Geno Hayes is a stud linebacker with 136 career tackles and 31 career TFL. Hayes had the game sealing INT and TD at Boston College, and had at least one TFL in each of the previous six games. Derek Nicholson is a junior linebacker that has really come on this season. After recording just 6 tackles in the first five games of last year, Nicholson has 64 in his junior campaign, good for first on the team.

Up front, Everette Brown leads the team in sacks, with 5, but hasn’t had one since October 11^th against Wake Forest, and has actually only registered 4 total tackles since that game. DeKoda Watson is in the opposite boat from Brown, with all his TFL coming in the last five games. Watson is a sophomore with a really high upside, and a growing danger to make plays all over the field.

After FSU’s two leading tacklers, Nicholson and Hayes, the next four leading tackle men are secondary players, which may or may not be a good sign. Since the FSU pass D is 72^nd nationally and 10^th in the league, I have to think part of the reason for those padded tackle stats is the corners’ inability to cover receivers tightly. Roger Williams, Myron Rolle, Michael Ray Garvin and Tony Carter are the four players in the question, and have only 5 INT this year between them. You have to think part of FSU’s strategy will be to go after QB Sean Glennon in a big way. If that happens, FSU will likely play tight coverage against the Tech receivers. If the ‘Nole corners can’t hang with Tech’s deep threats, Glennon could uncork some big plays.

Special Teams

Senior kicker Gary Cismesia has 277 career points, and is a lock for high ACC honors this year. Cismesia has kicked 19 of 25 FG on the year and is tied for 2^nd in the nation in made kicks. Punter Graham Cano has been good too, with a 42.38 yard punting average that ranks 32^nd nationally. None of the return teams have distinguished themselves in either a positive or negative light.

Prediction

I doubted Tech last week, and I won’t again. FSU got a big win at BC, and in some cases that would be cause for alarm. But over the last couple years, the ‘Noles have been mercurial as it gets. This is a team prone to proving itself in a big way, then losing the chip on their shoulder and laying an egg the following week. I think Tech clamps down on the dormant FSU rushing game, forcing Drew Weatherford to beat them. He can, but he won’t, not this time, anyway. Virginia Tech 24, Florida State 13.

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech Preview

Two Techs enter. One leaves victorious. That’s the guarantee against Georgia Tech, as the Hokies try to forget Boston College. Last Thursday, VA Tech snatched defeat from the jaws of victory; can they turn it around in the Tech Bowl? Let’s take a look at the opponent:

GEORGIA TECH (5-3, 2-3 ACC)

Offense

There aren’t a whole lot of offenses in the nation that rely on one player more than the Yellow Jackets with Tashard Choice. Coming in to this Thursday, GT’s rush offense is 13^th in the nation, and the pass offense is 107^th. Choice is by far the workhorse among the running backs, leading the ACC at 108 yards per game. That’s why the GT attack should be so benign without him. At press time, word on the e-street was that Choice would definitely miss this weekend’s contest. For some reason, I’m not convinced. The senior running back has never missed a game since he transferred to Atlanta from Oklahoma three years ago. Furthermore, despite his apparent absence, Las Vegas still has GT listed as a 2.5 point favorite, which would be almost inconceivable were he not in uniform. Confused? Me too.

Regardless, other offensive weapons will have to step up; as good as Choice has been, the 2-3 ACC record shows that he can’t carry Tech all by himself. One option is career backup, senior RB Rashaun Grant, who has shown promise this year, gaining 231 yards on just 39 carries. Grant is a fifth-year senior that, at the very least, will know where the holes are supposed to be, and shouldn’t make a ton of mental mistakes. He picked up 119 yards on just 11 carries against Army, so the explosiveness seems to be there. Freshmen Jonathan Dwyer and Josh Nesbitt represent the backfield of the future, and both average over 25 yards per game.

Those Tech fans hoping the QB situation would dramatically improve with Reggie Ball moving on to greener pastures have been left wanting in 2008. GT is a startling 113^th nationally in pass efficiency, and despite some good outings from Taylor Bennett, has been crippled offensively by its one way limitations. Bennett’s best game of the year was a 22-34 for 309 outing against Maryland, but even then, the junior couldn’t led his team to victory. Any running back that plays will be a better offensive option than Bennett and the passing game so, as usual, the key for Tech on defense is to swallow the run game and force Bennett to beat them. He can’t.

No GT receiver is in the ACC’s top 12 in receptions or yards per game, so there’s probably not a whole lot to fear here. Sophomore wideout Greg Smith and freshman WR Demaryius Thomas are the 1-2 punch, both averaging between 3-3.2 catches and 40-50 yards per game. The two young guns can hurt the Hokies, but they won’t beat them. Up front, Georgia Tech sports an impressive offensive line that has given Bennett every chance to succeed this year. The Ramblin’ Wreck is a killer across the front five; 4 of the 5 o-line starters began the year with 26 consecutive starts. Even though the unit has been beset my some injuries, including a recent one to right guard Nate McManus, they’re still great. The unit has allowed Bennett to be put on his back just six times in eight games, good for 3^rd best nationally.

Defense

The Wreck defense has kept GT in games even when the offense wasn’t clicking, and is easily the strength of the team. There’s balance here, too; Tech boasts the nation’s 6^th best rushing D and its 34^th best passing D. GT is 1^st in the ACC in both yards allowed and points allowed.

The defensive front four has been just as dominant as Tech’s offensive line. Opposing QBs have gone down in heaps this season, as the Yellow Jackets have sacked signal callers 3.63 times per game this year, good for 4^th nationally. That’s a net gain of 3 sacks per game over their opponents; it’s a big number, and so is their 9.50 TFL average, 2^nd nationally. VT absolutely must keep this swarming crew out of the backfield. Tech has three of the ACC’s top 12 sackmeisters; junior DL Vance Walker, senior LB Philip Wheeler and senior DL Darrell Robertson. All three are deadly in opposing backfields.

If VT can cross the line of scrimmage, there’s hope for success, but Tech boasts playmakers at several positions in the back 7 as well. At DB, freshman Morgan Burnett is looking like a possible future star; with 30 tackles on the year, and 3 picks in GT’s last five games, Burnett is quickly becoming a fixture on opposing coaches’ game plans. Shane Bowen is another young player with talent to burn. The sophomore LB is improving a lot on the job in his first starting year, with 4 TFL and 3 sacks. Senior LB Gary Guyton is a leader on the unit, with 45 tackles and 12 TFL; junior DL Darryl Richard has 4 sacks.

Special Teams

Senior Travis Bell will be an all-ACC kicker after the season is over. Bell has hit 17 of 20 FGs on the year for a smashing 85% accuracy mark. Bell has been doin’ it for four years in Atlanta, and if you throw out his awful sophomore slump, the career numbers are excellent: 44 of 55 on 3-pointers. If Choice is out, punter Durant Brooks will have to be a weapon and, to date, the senior has been up to the task. Brooks’ average is 45.22 yards per kick, good for 7^th nationally.

Pick

The BC loss was such a gut-wrencher that it’ll take a very special week of focus, intensity and practice to exorcise the ghosts from that one. GT’s defense is every bit as solid as the Virginia Tech side, but without as many SportsCenter highlights. If Choice is out, how successful will the VT D be at completely crushing the GT run game so that Bennett has to beat them? It’ll be close either way, but I think Georgia Tech comes in rested off its bye week and secures a win. Yellow Jackets, by a nose. Georgia Tech 20, Virginia Tech 17.

Virginia Tech vs. Boston College Preview

It’s here. Other than a to-be-expected loss in the home of the nation’s 2^nd ranked squad, both Virginia Tech and Boston College have survived every hurdle leading to their October 25^th battle in Blacksburg. Both teams are relatively healthy. Both teams have 12 days to prepare. BC is 7-0; VT is 6-1. Let’s get it on.

Boston College (#3; 7-0, 3-0 ACC)

Offense: From the Old News file, BC’s offense is led by Matt Ryan, a probable first round NFL draft choice and an outside candidate to earn a trip to New York as a Heisman finalist. Ryan is off to a great start this year, with 192 completions of 304 attempts for 2148 yards, and 17 scores to just 6 picks. Ryan is a big-body, strong-arm thrower, at 6’5, 218 lbs., he already reminds some scouts of the Patriots’ Tom Brady. Ryan’s biggest improvement since last year is cutting down on the interceptions. Last year, Ryan threw 15 TDs to 10 picks. He’s being more careful with the ball this year, and BC’s offense has become more efficient, accordingly.

Lost a bit in all the joyous hubbub over Ryan is the improvement of Andre Callender. The senior back has been able to handle a great load this year; his 128 rushes for 627 yards are pretty close to last year’s full season totals of 146 rushes for 633 yards. Callender has also found the end zone 8 times, compared to last year’s 3, and already has more catches and receiving yards than he did all of last season. Senior L.V. Whitworth has taken a smaller role in the offense with Callender’s development. Whitworth is on pace for just 483 yards this season. But after three straight years of between 140 and 190 carries with a yards per carry of 4.4, 4.3 and 4.5, its clear that Whitworth is a stable back that can be relied on in crunch time.

The throwing game is not only difficult to defend because of Ryan’s accuracy, but because there are several targets with an ability to step up and catch balls. Five Eagles ar snagging 3.4 balls or more per game, and all of the above (Rich Gunnell, Brandon Robinson, Kevin Challenger, Callender and Ryan Purvis) are among the ACC’s top 15 ball catchers. That’s distribution and dominance. With all the passing, it’s pretty amazing that the offensive line is 9^th nationally in sacks allowed. The BC big bodies are giving up just .86 sacks a game, and only Oklahoma and Minnesota above them could really be called passing teams.

Defense: The BC D is a ball hawking unit with experience in every unit that will feast on any mistakes by either Tyrod Taylor or Sean Glennon. BC is 4^th in the nation in turnover margin, at +1.57 per game, and with the efficiency of Ryan & Co., it will absolutely paramount that VA Tech not turn the ball over, especially inside their own 50. Turnovers will turn in to points.

The defensive effort all starts up front, where the Eagles have three very good linebackers that can make plays in coverage and in the backfield. Sophomore Alex Albright is having a break out year in his first season of extended duty. Albright’s tackle totals are meager, at just 19, but he has 6 sacks in the last four games. Senior Jolonn Dunbar has 53 tackles, 4 TFL and an INT return for touchdown on the year. Dunbar has 195 career tackles in the BC scheme, and can deliver a big hit. Sophomore Mark Herzlich is delivering on the promise he showed last year as a freshman; Herzlich has 43 tackles, 6 TFL and a pick this year.

BC’s pass D numbers are pretty bad on paper, but the main reason the pass defense is giving up a lot of yards is because the Eagles have been ahead basically start to finish all year, and teams have been throwing constantly. You can see this at work in BC’s 105^th rated pass D; however, if you look at pass efficiency D, the Eagles are 16^th nationally, 3^rd in the ACC. Senior DB Jamie Silva is 3^rd in the nation in INT. Silva’s picked five balls this year, but that’s 2 against NC State and 3 against Bowling Green. The scary thing with Silva is that he can really run with the ball if he gets his hands on it. Silva’s returned his 5 picks for 107 yards, and has 55 tackles to go with his interceptions.

Special Teams: BC Kicker Steve Aponavicius has been pretty accurate on his career, with 15 of 20 field goals and 51 of 55 extra points. Aponavicius kicked in college for the first time against the Hokies last year, so VT fans should remember him. The punting game is solid hands, with Johnny Ayers averaging 41 yards a kick.

Prediction: I’d love to pick the Hokies here, especially with Frank Beamer and the staff sure to make the most of 12 preparation days. However, BC just looks too good on both sides of the ball. The #1 rush defense in the country will dare the Hokies to throw, and what results this year indicate they’ll be able to do it well enough to win the game? VT leads at half, BC pulls ahead in the third and puts it away with a late Ryan-led drive. Boston College 21, Virginia Tech 16.

Preview: Virginia Tech at Duke

Forgive me, Hokie fans, for I have sinned. Last week in this space I forecasted a 1-point loss to Clemson, having no idea how inspired the defensive effort would be in the Palmetto State. As we all know, Tech got three returns for TDs; a punt, a kick and a pick, and the Hokies rode that to a blow-away 41-23 win.

So, with Tech now at 2-0 in the ACC and two weeks from a possible title-game preview at Boston College, the temptation would be to look right on past the Duke Blue Devils. Fight the urge. Duke is dangerous, and here’s an up close look.

Duke (1-5, 0-3 ACC)

Offense: You may not be the betting type, but if you are, you know that when a team covers the spread four weeks running, the public isn’t giving them the respect they deserve. Sure, the Dukies aren’t a great team by any stretch, but they’ve climbed out of the ACC cellar talent-wise, and I’ve got them as the 10^th best team in the league right now, and the potential to be even better was evidenced in a close loss to Miami and a shootout loss with Wake Forest.

Thaddeus Lewis commands the offensive attack, and is putting together a season a little bit better than a lot of folks might realize. Lewis, still just a sophomore, is 101 of 191 throwing, with 1491 yards in just 6 games. The schedule hasn’t been easy either, as the numbers aren’t padded with any huge days against cream puffs. Lewis has thrown for 241 yards or more in the last four games, and since the opening clash with UCONN, his TD:INT ratio is a pretty-darn-great 14:4. This kid is poised to be a genuine all-conference performer within the next year or two, and his presence commands VA Tech’s respect and attention on defense.

Lewis is 3^rd in the ACC in total offense and 2^nd in passing efficiency, so clearly the road to stopping Duke’s offense starts with stopping Lewis. The key to harassing Lewis is through pressure, as is so often the case. The Duke line has been terrible, just terrible at protecting Lewis this year, surrendering 3.83 sacks a game (115^th in the nation). The quickest way for a talented young thrower like Lewis to have his growth stunted is to get too many clean shots from opposing defensive ends, but the sacks just keep coming, often at the worst times for Duke drives.

The offensive line woes don’t stop at just poor pass protection, however, as the line has also been wretched at paving holes for a running game. The rush attack is 116^th in the nation at just 66 yards a game. After seeing limited carries in the first three carries, junior Re’Quan Boyette has given Duke a bit of a lift in this department, logging 190 carries in 29 carries in those three contests. Boyette is as much of a bruiser as the Blue Devils have, at 5-foot-10 and 210 lbs.

Lewis’ development has been aided by being able to chuck to experienced WR Eron Riley. Riley is currently the ACC’s leading receiver, at 4.17 catches (7^th in conf.) and 90.67 yards (1^st in conf.) per game. At just twenty and two months, Riley is younger than some that play major college football as freshman, but he’s been a rock for Lewis. Riley has about 1400 yards and 14 scores in his career, and he’s still just a junior. Senior WR Jomar Wright is another long-term guy having his best year yet in the blue and white, with 31 catches for 346 yards and 3 TD at the midpoint.

Defense: The numbers aren’t pretty.

11^th in the ACC against the run, 177.33 ypg

12^th in the ACC at pass efficiency D, 144.15

12^th in the ACC at total yardage D, 437.17 ypg

12^th in the ACC at scoring D, 32.33 ppg

11^th in the ACC against the pass, 259.83 ypg

OK, so the Duke D ain’t good. The unit’s biggest problem this year has been an inability to get off the field on possession downs, and give the volatile offense a chance to explode in to a groove. Once the unit woke up and got a few stops against Wake, look what happened: the Devils only had to punt on one of their last five possessions, and almost won the football game. The key for Tech will be getting a lot of third downs in the 2-6 yard area. Keep the sticks moving with manageable down & distance, and the overmatched Duke D will really have no chance.

Sophomore LB Vincent Rey is the ACC’s leading tackler (12 tpg), and has been a beast all year. Rey had 12 tackles against Wake, including three TFL, and can make hits all over the field. Rey is a lot like Lewis: a talented young player that represents a new kind of Duke football player. #31 got out of the gate strong with a devastating 17 tackle, 2 sacks performance against UCONN that set the tone for the kind of year he’s having. Rey has had a TFL in every game but one this year, and he just has to be marked at all times.

Senior DL Patrick Bailey isn’t an outstanding talent, but is coming up on 200 career tackles, so he can make a play here and there. Bailey also as a TFL in every game but one, and his 12 stops against Northwestern helped give Duke a great chance to win on the road.

The secondary obviously isn’t too good, but with the way Tyrod Taylor is throwing, any threat is significant, and sophomore DB Leon Wright is just that. With 3 picks on the year, including two against Miami, Wright is the Devils’ best hope to pick off some passes and cause Taylor trouble. Against Wake, he returned to his last year’s role of also returning punts, and did a pretty nice job, handling 4 for 52 yards.

Special Teams: As mentioned above, Wright looks to be the punt returner now, with Jabari Marshall the main kick return guy. Marshall knows what he’s doing back there, having averaged 25 yards a return in 2006, and getting off to a nice start in 2007, with a TD against UCONN and 29 returns for 26 yards a pop, good for 2^nd in the conference.

The Duke placekicking game is in outright disarray, with junior Joe Surgan sitting on just 4 of 14 FGs made since the start of 2001. Who knows which kicker gets the FG duties this weekend, but Greg Meyers missed his only attempt, and Nick Maggio has only been allowed to do extra points (4 of 4). Freshman Kevin Jones has showed promise punting the ball, with a 41.1 yard average on 26 kicks.

Prediction: The weapons in Durham scare me, but the defense is just too shaky overall to give VA Tech much of a scare. Expect about 12 pass attempts from Taylor; the Hokies can’t run the ball too much in this game. Methinks the final is a bit closer than some Hokie fans would like, but a win is a win, and after this, it’s on to Chestnut Hill. Virginia Tech 24, Duke 13.

cking game is in outright disarray, with junior Joe Surgan sitting on just 4 of 14 FGs made since the start of 2001. Who knows which kicker gets the FG duties this weekend, but Greg Meyers missed his only attempt, and Nick Maggio has only been allowed to do extra points (4 of 4). Freshman Kevin Jones has showed promise punting the ball, with a 41.1 yard average on 26 kicks.

Prediction: The weapons in Durham scare me, but the defense is just too shaky overall to give VA Tech much of a scare. Expect about 12 pass attempts from Taylor; the Hokies can’t run the ball too much in this game. Methinks the final is a bit closer than some Hokie fans would like, but a win is a win, and after this, it’s on to Chestnut Hill. Virginia Tech 24, Duke 13.

Virginia Tech at Clemson Preview

And here we are. While most Tech fans had high hopes for the trip to LSU, this week’s contest against Clemson has been the one circled as a contest that will play a large part in making or breaking the Hokies’ season. And, with Clemson’s 13-3 defeat at Georgia Tech last week, the Tigers now enter the game coming off a loss, and needing a win to keep their Atlantic Division hopes alive. Let’s check out the matchup:

Clemson (4-1, 2-1 ACC)

Offense: Before the wheels came off in Atlanta, this unit had been humming along pretty well. Junior QB Cullen Harper is still off to a really nice start, with season numbers of 92-147 for 1158 yards. The impressive stat, and the one most important to Clemson’s success, considering their stable of solid possession backs, is that Harper has thrown 12 TDs to just 1 INT. Harper’s not much of a threat to make an impact with his legs, and his lack of mobility has been a big factor in the 14 sacks he’s taken. Harper went down 6 times against the Ramblin’ Wreck, and was harried constantly. It seems to me like this awful QB protection rate (3.2 sacks per game, 104^th nationally) is a dual responsibility of the line and Harper. Either way, its got to change, because the Hokie front seven will be coming from all directions and trying to replicate the performance the other Tech put on last week. James Davis and CJ Spiller are the dual feature backs, with Davis being the much more consistent of the two. They both have big play capability, but Davis hasn’t averaged less than 5.0 yards a pop in any of the first 5 games of this year. Spiller is dangerous, too, but hasn’t had a great year statistically, and completely disappeared against both Furman and Georgia Tech. As James Davis goes, so goes the Clemson running game. As far as the passing game, if Harper has time to throw, he’ll look first to Aaron Kelly, a junior WR. Kelly has been a key player in the Clemson aerial attack for three years, and if he keeps up at this rate, he might have a shot at a lot of the Tigers’ all time receiving marks. He’s on pace for a 70 catch, 800 yard season in 2007. Sophomore Jacoby Ford and junior Tyler Grisham, both WRs, will catch some balls as well. The key with Harper and the Clemson passing game is not giving him time to set up and throw from the pocket. When Harper has it, he’s very efficient. When he doesn’t, the Clemson can and will be stopped.

Defense: Overall, the Clemson defense has been pretty darn stout this year, and can’t take much of the responsibility for the Georgia Tech defeat. The Tigers limited Tech to just 256 yards, and the other two ACC foes, NC State and Florida State, got just 202 and 256, respectively. Clemson is especially good defending against the pass; even with three blow out wins under their belt, which should means teams are throwing a lot against them, they’re 8^th nationally in pass yardage D and 7^th in pass efficiency D. Junior DB Michael Hamlin is a ball-hawking player with 7 career interceptions, including one in each of the last three games. The Tigers aren’t spectacular defending the run, at 66^th nationally, so its even more incumbent than usual for Brandon Ore and Tyrod Taylor to make things happen on the ground. The D is sitting at 4^th in the league in TFL right now, and Phillip Merling is a standout in this area, with 9 of his 27 overall tackles coming behind the line of scrimmage. Young gun Ricky Sapp, a sophomore DL, will also get in the backfield; Sapp has 2.5 sacks this year after nabbing four during his freshman campaign. All in all, the strength of this unit is in defending the pass, but there should be some holes between the tackles.

Special Teams: The weakness of the squad is certainly special teams at this point in the year. The Clemson punt cover unit is 102th nationally in net punting, with a measly 31.67 yards coming of it every time the Tigers willingly change possession. Their kick return unit hasn’t been good either, logging just 18 yards a kick. In these days of kickoffs from the 30 yard line, that’s a terrible total, and it’s only good for 113^th nationally. Kicker Mark Buchholz was off to a solid start, but shanked four of five kicks against Georgia Tech, potentially costing Clemson the game. Buchholz appears to have held on his starting job, but its tough to say how he’ll bounce back mentally from such an awful effort.

Prediction: Clemson is a solid outfit on both sides of the ball. If the Tigers had beaten Georgia Tech, I’d be picking the Hokies today, but Clemson needs this game desperately, and Coach Tommy Bowden might need it that badly as well. VA Tech can still lose and win their division; Clemson really can’t, and I think the added sense of urgency will be enough to win a squeaker. Clemson 17, VA Tech 16.

Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina Preview

The Hokies looked great in dispatching William & Mary Saturday, 44-3. Tyrod Taylor got a lot of great reps, and the defense brought their A-game. But VA Tech is faced with a strange challenge; thanks to a weird scheduling quirk that gave Virginia three September ACC games, its not even October yet, and the Hokies are already three behind the Cavaliers in the win column. Tech gets their chance to start gaining ground this week against North Carolina. Let’s take a look:

North Carolina (1-3, 0-1 ACC)

Offense: The Heels are off to another bad start, and with Duke finally breaking the two-year losing streak, UNC is probably the ACC’s worst team. But Carolina is not without weapons, as QB T.J. Yates has been a fairly accurate passer to date. Yates is 3^rd in the ACC in passing efficiency and 2^nd in the conference in total offense (244.50 ypg). Yates was looking like a major freshman of the year candidate before a brutal outing in last week’s 37-10 loss to South Florida. Jim Leavitt’s Bull defense frustrated Yates in to throwing 4 picks and completing just 11 of 27 passes. This week will be a great indication of whether that outing was a one week aberration or if the Bulls wrote the book on how to stop this talented freshman. To say the Carolina rush attack has been anemic would almost be a compliment. The Heels are 110^th in the NCAA in rush yards per game, with freshman Johnny White leading the way at 48.5 yards per game. White hasn’t had a single game above 60 yards, and hasn’t been much of a hom run threat either. White won’t get many yards against Tech, but it would help an awful lot to get him some looks through the air as well. White caught 4 balls against East Carolina for 58 yards, and the added dimension helped Carolina to their most impressive offensive output of the year. Yates’ big numbers have helped UNC host three of the ACC’s top 10 pass-catchers, statistically, at this point in the year. Brooks Foster leads the way with 15 catches for 277 yards (5^th in ACC in yards) and Hakeem Nicks is next with 18 catches for 243 yards (7^th in conference.) Junior Brandon Tate is 10^th in the conference with 214 yards on just 8 catches, but Carolina’s long-ball guy disappeared against South Florida, grabbing just one ball for 6 yards. IF the line can’t pass protect (74^th in NCAA in sacks allowed), the home run balls aren’t going to be there, and Yates can be contained. Center Scott Lenahan is a returning starter and team captain in the middle of the line.

Defense: Welcome to Butch Ball. The ‘Heel actually hasn’t been that bad, ranking 60^th nationally in yards surrendered, and 68^th in scoring D. Sure, its not great, but might indicate how this team is going to be built under new sheriff Davis’ tutelage. UNC has been equally mediocre against run and pass, coming in at 59^th nationally against the pass and 64^th against the run. They’re not pressuring QBs (9^th in ACC in sacks, 1.75 per game) but they are sticking a lot of running backs for short losses (4^th in ACC in TFL, 7.25 per game), and that has to be seen as a building block on Chapel Hill. One thing UNC isn’t doing is creating turnovers, at a -5 deficit on the year, and the secondary hasn’t helped, snaring a pitiful 2 INT in the first 4 games. There have been some standout individual performers so far, though. LB Durell Mapp is a three-year letterwinner who’s picked up right where he left off at the end of last year’s ACC campaign. Mapp had 87 stops last year, and already has 50 this season, good for tops in the conference and 6^th nationally. DL Hilee Taylor is a nice compliment to Mapp, and is really the big threat to do damage to opposing drives. Taylor has 4.5 sacks, including 3 against Virginia, and already has a total of 8 stops for a loss in just four games. Taylor is a senior with just 41 total tackles coming in to the year; the Heels needed someone to step up on the defensive line, and he’s done it. The secondary doesn’t have a lot of top-flight talent; one of the squad’s two pick came courtesy of Deunta Williams, who is still listed on the team roster as a WR. This should be another chance of Tyrod Taylor to build confidence.

Special Teams: Brandon Tate has gotten off to a great start returning both punts and kicks. Tate’s averages of 11 per punt return and 27 per kick return are both in the top 6 in the ACC. Senior kicker Connor Barth hasn’t been given much chance to help out this year, but has been solid throughout his career. He’s 38 of 52 on field goals lifetime.

Prediction: The schedule puts another game in Tech’s path that provides a chance for a lot of the new pieces to learn, develop and get more game reps. This is a particularly nice matchup for Tech because their pass rush should have a chance to really come to life and take away Carolina’s deep threats. Another week, another step toward the division title. Virginia Tech 35, North Carolina 10.

Preview: Virginia Tech vs. William & Mary

The ship has been righted in Blacksburg, as the Hokies pounded out a 28-7 win over Ohio this weekend. And while we hopefully won’t learn too much about this Tech team until October 6^th at Clemson, Frank Beamer is hoping for another solid effort and lots of game reps for his freshman QB, Tyrod Taylor. Let’s take a quick look at Tech’s Saturday opponent, the William & Mary Pride.

William & Mary (2-1, 0-1 Colonial)

Offense: The Pride currently possess the second best offense in the division formerly known as I-AA (FCS). Needless to say, the competition hasn’t been up to snuff, but this is an offense that should be playing with confidence, averaging 47.3 points per game in its first three outings. They’ve scored at least 31 all three times, and both score and pass consistently. Jake Phillips has a beautiful QB rating of 202.7, and has already eclipsed his abbreviated 2006 yardage totals. Standing at 1010 yards after just three contests, the junior who’s started since his freshman year has made the biggest improvements in one area: interceptions. Phillips has thrown 0 picks in his first 84 attempts of 2007, and that efficiency will be key if W&M has any hopes of an upset. Don’t think that this is a dink and dunk attack either. Phillips is averaging 12.02 yards per pass attempt. Again, the competition hasn’t been ACC-tough, but this is a kid who’ll bring a great effort and tons of poise to Lane Stadium. On the receiving end, all of the Pride’s top 8 receivers average more than 10 yards a catch; this isn’t a team that really works a lot of “safety valves” in to their offensive plan. TE Drew Atchison has had two big-time games, catching 6 balls for over 100 yards and a touchdown against Delaware and Liberty. Junior WR Elliott Mack has been more consistent, however, with games of 4-53, 4-73 and 5-71. Coming out of the backfield, DeBrian Holmes is the workhorse, leading the team in carries by a mile (49) but with only 191 yards to show for it. Holmes broke his ankle at the end of the Liberty game, and probably won’t see action this week. Senior Tony Viola didn’t play against Delaware, but got 56 and 57 yards against VMI and Liberty; his presence as a counter punch has helped open the passing game. The offensive line faces the biggest challenge of any W&M unit this week trying to hold off Tech’s nasty pass rush. Because of Phillips’ downfield throws, the line is counted on to protect well. The Pride’s front five is young in the middle, but very experienced at the tackles with LT Brent Cochran and RT Brad Stewart making their 23^rd and 25^th consecutive starts, respectively. Tech will need to get pressure up the middle to harass Phillips.

Defense: As is so often the case, the counterpoint to an excellent offense is a brutal defense. The Pride D has given up 35.3 ppg this year against obviously weak competition, so look for Tyrod Taylor & Co. to look as polished and dynamic as they have all year. The defensive front is very young; the Pride will start three sophomores that average 259 pounds on the D-Line this week. The W&M pass defense is currently the best yardage-wise in the CAA, but don’t be fooled; that’s only because this front four is so weak against the run. One stat the D did improve on was red-zone efficiency. After giving up 6 TDs in 6 trips to Delaware, the line tightened up a bit and only surrendered scores on half of Liberty’s 20-yard line invasions. Ryan Jones is a Sophomore DT and former walk-on who might have the highest ceiling of the front four. At linebacker, the Pride have some experienced tacklers, with WLB Michael Pigram the stoutest of the bunch. Pigram is a tough customer at just 5-10 and 220, and has 25 stops on the year. Josh Rutter posted 15 tackles against Liberty. SLB Ryan Horvath is another former walk-on getting his third career start against the Hokies. The secondary is really young, with three sophomores and a junior, and the corners are making a ton of tackles thanks to the lack of support from the front four. CB Max Harris had 11 tackles and 8 solos against Liberty, and SS David Caldwell posted a career-high 15 tackles in the VMI victory. This secondary isn’t great at picking off passes, getting their first two of the year in the latter stages of the Liberty game.

Special Teams: Kicker Brian Pate was last week’s CAA player of the week for his performance against Liberty. Pate is 19-19 on the year on PAT, and is 3-4 on FG. Sophomore CJ Herbert has 3 blocked kicks in his career, so he may be a factor on special teams.

Overview: W&M may score a couple times, but this defense doesn’t have a prayer of stopping the Tech rushing attack, and will provide the perfect training wheels for Mr. Taylor as he gains confidence for the ACC battles down the road. Virginia Tech 38, William & Mary 13.

Virginia Tech vs. Ohio Preview

(This article originally appeared on www.hokiehaven.com.)

So, this Virginia Tech squad won’t be playing for the national championship, as many in Blacksburg and across America hoped they might. The Bayou Beatdown exposed Tech’s weaknesses at more areas than just quarterback, but that’ll be the major change starting this week, with freshman sensation Tyrod Taylor taking the helm from embattled vet Sean Glennon. Let’s take a look at this week’s opponent, the Ohio Bobcats, and assess the Hokies’ chances Saturday.

Ohio (2-0)

Offense:

When moving with the football, the Bobcat attack begins and ends with Kelvin McRae. A Clinton Portis look-alike with the same kind of flashy grin, McRae is a strong runner with a nose for the end zone. The senior from Decatur, Georgia has just shy of 3,100 career yards, and with 6 TDs, is currently the nation’s leader in scoring. McRae emerged last year as a receiving threat, as well, snagging 29 balls for 280 yards. If Tech shuts down McRae, they win easily. Period. If they don’t, Ohio can turn this in to a battle.

After seeing split time in 2004 and 2006, QB Brad Bower has slipped in to the full time role evacuated by Austin Everson, and had his strongest game as a starter last week at Louisiana-Lafayette, going 17-28 for 264 yards and a score. Bower’s career numbers are remarkably consistent; he always hovers right around 55-60% completions. So far this year, he hasn’t faced much of a rush. In his career to date, he’s thrown an INT about once every 12 pass attempts; this year, its 1 in 18. He is prone to throw picks when facing heat, however. His 1-7 TD-INT ratio last year kept him off the field. If Bower gets rattled, he’ll fall back on McRae. It all goes through McRae.

Last year, the Bobcat passing attack was just this side of abysmal, and so far in 2007, no one has stepped up as a go to guy. The plan seems to be to spread the ball around to a host of targets, and in two 2007 contests, no receiver has caught more than four balls in a game. Wideout Chido Nwokocha looked good against Gardner-Webb, snaring 3 for 52, but then disappeared at Lafayette. Sophomore Chris Garrett leads the squad in catches, with 7 for 51, but isn’t yet the kind of downfield threat Ohio can use to stretch a defense.

This Bobcat offensive line isn’t nearly as equipped to open gaping holes for McRae as the 2006 outfit, but they’ve done a decent job so far against two undermanned opponents. Matt Miller, a 322 pound senior tackle from down the road in Mechanicsville, VA might be the best of the bunch and along with David Shelby, composes a solid set of bookends between which McRae can try to find space against the angry Hokie front four.

Defense:

As long as Frank Solich is the sheriff in Athens, Ohio is going to be capable on the defensive side of the ball. Considering the MAC’s size, the league boasts a very high number of excellent defensive linemen, and Ohio’s Jameson Hartke and Landon Cohen are two of the best. Hartke posted 7.5 sacks in 2006, and Cohen logged 14 tackles for loss. If the Bobcats are going to cause distress for Tyrod Taylor, the effort is going to depend on these two beasts to do damage.

At year’s beginning, the linebacking spots were wide open after the departure of crucial talents last year. Jordan Meyers, Michael Brown, Taj Henley and Erick Ejike will run a rotation of sorts at the LB position. This group, like in any defense, has to be the anchor of the defense, and the group went from mediocre against Gardner-Webb (333 yards total, 14 points) to pretty bad in the Bayou (534 yards total; 257 passing, 277 running). Giving up 5.4 yards per rush is a good sign that Brandon Ore and the Tech line can bruise this midline group as the game goes on.

The Bobcat secondary gets a lot of help from the aggressive front four, but does have a winner in undersized but talented corner Mark Parson. Before the season, Solich said Parson had “TJ Wright-like skill,” referring to 2006 All-MAC CB Wright, now making a go of it professionally. To date in 2007, the numbers against the pass look worse than they should. Gardner was playing from behind all game, leading to a boat load of pass attempts, and the secondary got no help against Lafayette because of the linebackers ineptitude at run support.

Special Teams:

Chris Garrett is one of the youngest and brightest MAC stars returning kicks, coming off a freshman campaign where he averaged 14.5 yards per punt return. Kicker Michael Braunstein will be one of the last players in NCAA history to transfer under an old rule allowing a player with remaining eligibility to transfer to another school to take graduate courses without sitting a year. Braunstein was 10-12 on FG last year, and is a perfect 3-3 on FG and 8-8 on PAT so far in 2007.

Prediction:

Kelvin McRae will frustrate Tech fans by picking up a string of first downs early on, but the Tech defense has something to prove, and will give their young signal caller Tyrod Taylor all the support he needs to succeed in his starting debut. Virginia Tech 28, Ohio 7.

Game Preview: Virginia Tech vs. LSU

With the emotional opener against East Carolina nestled safely in the win column, the eyes of Blacksburg turn to the Bayou, where Tech challenges LSU Saturday in what is likely the biggest non-conference clash in the nation this September. Read on for a full preview and analysis of the big clash:

LSU (1-0, 1-0 SEC)

Offense: I guess you could say the performance against Mississippi State last Saturday wasn’t impressive, and there’s some truth to that assessment. The Bayou Bengals only racked up 347 yards while drilling MSU 45-0, but any time you approach the half century mark against an SEC defense, you’ve done your job. New starting QB Matt Flynn was fairly pedestrian in the first game of his senior campaign, but he was efficient, going 12-19 for 128 yards and 2 scores. Concerns about Flynn’s acumen should dissipate quickly; throughout the 2006 season, most Tiger fans I know were convinced he was the best quarterback in Baton Rouge, despite the fact that he was second-string to eventual #1 draft pick Jamarcus Russell. Flynn has amassed 1,500+ yards over his career as backup, so he’s ready for the big stage.

On the ground, the Tigers will spread it out, as leading rusher Jacob Hester got just 14 carries against the Bulldogs. Remarkably, LSU handed out 50 carries to 7 different players and the effort, while unspectacular, was efficient. Hester will likely continue that kind of output. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 4.6, 4.7 and now (after one game) 4.9 yards per game. Expect consistency and toughness from Hester. Richard Murphy is a freshman with talent to burn. Murphy logged 35 yards, including a 21-yard burst in his first college game vs. Mississippi State. It will be interesting to see, as the season progresses, if the tailback by committee situation continues, or if the job is all Hester’s.

Early Doucet is the most familiar name on the LSU squad right now, and after no other receiver caught more than one ball vs. MSU, he’s likely to catch much of the Hokie focus. Doucet is coming off a 59 catch, 772 yard season that saw him catch 8 touchdowns as well. With a competent line returning, the weakest link on the Tiger offense at this point might be wearing a headset, not a helmet. New coordinator Gary Crowton will push for more quick outs and line reads, giving the quarterback more room to improvise. Flynn will take to the system fully in time, but if Tech can catch LSU in an adjustment period, you won’t hear Frank Beamer complaining.

Defense:

Good lord.

The Tigers always seem to boast monster defenses, finished 3^rd in the nation the last two years in total D, and this year is no exception. In fact, this season might be the best of the bunch, including a fearsome defensive front that boasts sure-thing NFLers Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. Dorsey is probably the best defensive tackle in the nation, according to both LSU coach Les Miles and Auburn’s Tommy Tuberville, who saw his offensive line battered by Dorsey in a “Warren Sapp-like” performance last year. This is a front that can pressure without blitzing, providing plenty of chances for the d-backs. Craig Steltz is one of those backs and, despite filling in for first round pick LaRon Landry, snatched three errant Mississippi State passes, giving LSU great field position throughout the contest. LSU picked off six passes in all, and although that kind of turnover rate can’t possibly continue, expect a lot of turnover chances from this fast, physical, blinding defensive attack. The linebackers are pretty good too, although they’re likely the weakest of LSU’s three defensive units. Darren McFadden ripped off huge yardage against this unit last year, providing some measure of hope for Brandon Ore and Virginia Tech.

Prediction: Tech will surprise observers with how well it can run against LSU, but the passing game will be met with utter devastation, keeping the Hokies out of striking distance for most of the game. Tech can harass Matt Flynn into some mistakes, but he will manage the game well enough to lead LSU to a hard-fought, defensive win. LSU 19, Virginia Tech 7.

NCAA Tournament Second Round Preview

(This article originally appeared on www.hokiehaven.com.)

After outlasting the Illini on Friday, Virginia Tech takes to the court in Columbus, Ohio again to battle another team from Illinois, Southern Illinois. Hokiehaven.com's Brian Golden takes a look ahead at the contest to see who will be headed to the Sweet Sixteen.

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (28-6, 15-3 MVC)
Big Wins: VA Tech 69-64, at Creighton 58-57, at Butler 68-64
Bad Losses: at Evansville 75-68

Two days after making one less mistake than Illinois, and surviving a madcap final few seconds, Virginia Tech battles Southern Illinois today for a spot, presumably versus Kansas, in the Sweet 16. The Salukis are, in some ways, the anti-VA Tech. SIU won the Missouri Valley the way Virginia Tech couldn't win the ACC: by bringing the lunchpail every single night, and dispatching the less threatening conference opponents. Of course, Drake and Illinois State are a far cry from FSU and NC State, but Southern Illinois' tough mental makeup is clear. When some began to doubt if this 2007 edition would be as special as some of its predecessors, the Salukis woke up, and began a winning streak that would last 11 games, and 6 weeks.

Back before SIU totally had it together, they faced a Virginia Tech team still looking for its identity on November 26. Southern Illinois took game one of the season series 69-64, in a contest that saw four Saluki starters go for double figures. Tech recovered from that loss, however, and I don't think the previous contest will be much help for either team. Each unit has grown into a more experienced, mature version of itself on that November day. That was a sloppy evening of basketball, with each team committing turnovers by the truck load and SIU earning a nice win for their tournament resume.

The Salukis often struggle to score, but the tallies are led by senior guard Jamaal Tatum at 14.9 ppg. Tatum's numbers aren't eye popping, but he has a habit of going off in big games, averaging 19.6 ppg in the team's three big second half games, including 21 in the MVC tourney against Creighton. Tatum is good, but he's far from the other only threat out there. Randal Falker and Matt Shaw, the dual Saluki big men, will cause problems for VA Tech by their mere presence in the game. Shaw, plagued by a troubling inconsistency most of the year, has begun to find stability going for 11 points three straight games, and giving the methodical Hokies yet one more guarantee. Everyone that plays for SIU can control the basketball and play defense, but the team is not especially deep. Only two bench players saw more than five minutes against Holy Cross, therefore, penetrating the lane to draw fouls on Falker and Shaw is imperative. Unlike almost everyone Tech has played lately, SIU doesn't have a bench that can do damage.

Controlling the tempo is the first key to a Hokie victory. Or, it may be more appropriate to say, releasing the tempo. SIU will try to control the game's pace, settling in to half court sets and draining shot clock. VA Tech needs to trap a little, gamble a little, allow Dowdell to score and distribute in transition. SIU will win a game in 50s. Tech wins a game where they can score 65 or more. This is tough, but I think both teams are right at 60, and Tech loses a Hokie heartbreaker. SIU BY 2.