Meineke Car Care Bowl Preview

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL – Dec. 29^th, 1:00 EST

UCONN vs. Wake Forest –

Of all great football stories of 2007, UCONN might have been the most unpredictable. Randy Edsall built a program in Storrs virtually from scratch; ten years ago, before this team was even D-I, bowl games and national rankings weren’t yet a glimmer in Edsall’s eye. However, success didn’t happen over night. Change has been in the water for several years in the great northeast, and this year the tide turned big-time in the form of program changing wins over Louisville, South Florida and Rutgers on three consecutive weekends. Down in Winston-Salem, Wake followed up its ACC championship with a solid, but ho hum 8-4 campaign that would have been much, much better if it had only held off Virginia, to whom the Deacons lost by 1 in early November. Still, Wake boss Jim Grobe is getting offers from every big school that looks for a coach, a tribute to the overhaul he’s done there.

Just like it did to win the title last year, Wake won ugly over and over again this year. How many 8-win teams boast the 97^th best offense in the nation? Virginia Tech, Virginia and Auburn are the only 8-win teams lower on the offensive totem pole, but all three of those squads have defenses in the top 17 nationally; Wake’s isn’t nearly that dominant, ranking just 9^th in the ACC. Yet still, the Deacons have made a living under Grobe by gutting out the close ones, evidenced this year in gut-check wins over Maryland (7, OT), Duke (5) and Florida State (3). In general, Wake isn’t going to beat itself, ranking 16^th nationally in turnover margin this year, but sophomore QB Riley Skinner did show a weakness for the INT, throwing 12 against just 11 TDs this year.

When the Deacons look across the field at UCONN, they’ll see a familiar resemblance. The Huskies have a pretty bad offense (84^th nationally), a great turnover margin (7^th nationally), and won all their big games ugly (Louisville by 4, USF by 7, Temple by 5). These two teams even lost to Virginia by the exact same score, 17-16. Where UCONN is a bit stronger is under center, where Tyler Lorezen boasted a 13:5 TD:INT ratio on the year, and never threw more than 1 pick in a game. Lorenzen can run, too, with a 304 yard total the complimented Andre Dixon (80 ypg) and Donald Brown (68 ypg) throughout the year.

It’s the battle of the uglies in Charlotte, but with a home-state crowd and a lot more experience doing what they do, Wake should win the ball game. UCONN hasn’t won on the road since September 22^nd, and that won’t change now. Wake 20, UCONN 16.