C-USA Title Game Preview

The Golden Hurricane are a touchdown-sized underdog to UCF in this weekend’s C-USA title tilt in Orlando. Can Paul Smith and Tulsa make this trip to Disney a happy one? Let’s take a good hard look at the opponent:

UCF (9-3, 7-1)

Offense: The Knights’ offensive attack, quite frankly, begins and ends with running back Kevin Smith. All told, the offense is 33^rd best in the nation and 4^th in C-USA at 425.67 yards per game. The rushing attack has rolled up an awesome 237 yards per outing, good for 10^th nationally and 2^nd in the league. Smith is the horse, leading the nation at 180 yards per game. Smith is a fantastic running back in almost every way; he’s productive, obviously, but he’s also durable, with 20 or more carries in 11 of 12 games this year, and he’s consistent, with 124 yards or more in the same 11 games. A telling stat is this: in UCF’s three losses, Smith has put up his 9^th, 10^th and 12^th biggest rushing outings of the year. If Tulsa holds him to 140 yards or less, it’ll win. Period.

Under center, senior Kyle Israel has been the Knights’ mostly primetime signal caller after splitting a few early snaps with Michael Greco. The passing offense is 98^th in the nation and worst in the C-USA, but some of the weakness is due to the huge emphasis on running the football. In efficiency, UCF ranks 49^th nationally, a serviceable number, and Israel has been just good enough to take the heat off Smith. Israel is in the top 40 nationally in QB rating, with one of the best outings coming against Tulsa in October, where he threw for 21-29 for 224 yards and a TD. He’s certainly been better later in the year, with at least one TD the last 6 games, but he’s also thrown a pick in each of the last 4. The UCF attack shapes up as a classic “gang up on Smith, and make Israel beat you.” He might, but that strategy is truly Tulsa’s only hope.

Rocky Ross leads UCF in most receiving categories, with 3.75 catches and 47.33 per game. Ross is probably the only receiver in the country with almost 600 yards on the year that hasn’t topped 100 in any single game this year. He’s not a guy that is going to go off for 12 catches and 150 yards, but he is Israel’s standby in the passing game. The reality is, because Smith is going to draw all Tulsa’s focus, Ross will get his catches. Can they come at times which don’t break the D’s backs? We’ll see.

The offensive line O’Leary has built is a good one, and not just at plowing turf for Smith to conquer. They’ve protected Israel to the tune of just 1.33 sacks allowed per game, good for 2^nd in the C-USA. However, they are vulnerable. UCF doesn’t throw much, but Tulsa has to be much more active on the defensive front than in the October meeting. Roy Roberts got Tulsa’s only sack in part one. If Tulsa has to bring blitzes to get pressure, the potential for Smith’s home run scampers goes up a ton.

Defense: UCF’s D is one of the more balanced outfits in the C-USA. Ranking 46^th in rushing D, 53^rd in total D and 65^th in scoring. They haven’t been great in the red zone, so Tulsa will have to convert on every chance they can.

The overall strength of the D is certainly against the pass, setting up a great matchup with Paul Smith and the Tulsa offense. UCF’s pass efficiency is 1^st in the C-USA. They’re only 5^th in yards allowed, but that’s because they’ve got the most wins in the league and are constantly in the lead. It starts up front, where UCF is tops in the league in sacks and 3^rd in tackles for loss.

Sophomore linebacker Bruce Miller is a breakout star in the league, with 6 solo sacks and 33 total tackles. Miller got to Paul Smith twice in Orlando, Part One for two big sacks, and somebody better put a hat on him, because he’s got 5 sacks in the last 6 games, and will be Smith’s public enemy number one when he drops back to pass. Senior DL Leger Douzable also has 5 solo sacks and 12 TFL. It seems like Douzable’s tackles are always back breakers, with 50 total loss yards on the 12 this year. He’s a big key to UCF’s D, setting opponents in 2^nd/3^rd and unconvertible longs.

In the secondary, Joe Burnett is the guy avoid, with a conference leading 6 INT. Burnett is yet another member of the UCF defense that is on fire lately, with 4 picks in the last three games. Burnett is a pretty decent punt returner, too, when he gets the chance, but his main function is as a pass-deterrent, and he’s pretty good at it. Elsewhere in the secondary, Sha’reff Rashad is kind of a feast or famine ‘backer. Yeah, he’s got the 4 picks, but he also struggles to cover receivers in certain situations and is forced to make a ton of solo tackles to compensate. Rashad, in my mind, is the guy to pick on in the UCF secondary.

Special Teams: While Burnett is decent on the punt returns, Curtis Francis is the home run hitter returning kickoffs for the Knights. At 9^th in the nation with a 29 yards per return average, he hasn’t gotten a ton of chances to return balls since taking one to the house against East Carolina. Nevertheless, if he’s on the field, he shouldn’t be kicked to. Michael Torres is one of the nation’s most accurate kickers, with 16 of 18 field goals and 45 of 46 extra points. He’s obviously not part of the defensive game plan, but if Tulsa finds their chances riding on a Torres miss, they’ll be disappointed.

Prediction: Tulsa’s up against it in this one, folks. Almost everything UCF does well plays in to beating the Golden Hurricane, and we’ve already seen it once in the 44-23 drubbing in October. No way this contest gets that out of hand, but I don’t think Tulsa can hold Smith to a buck fifty, and Paul Smith might struggle just enough with the UCF corners to make one too many mistakes. I hope I’m wrong, but the money’s on UCF: UCF 38, Tulsa 28.