Orange Bowl Preview

FEDEX ORANGE BOWL – Jan. 3rd, 8:00 EST

Virginia Tech vs. Kansas –

10-2, and champions of the ACC: just like I predicted to start the year. One thing I never would have predicted would be that the Hokies would get the Kansas Jayhawks, third place team in the Big 12, as a reward for their conference championship. Surely the ACC champs ought to beat the Big 12’s third best, right? Let’s check it out:

Kansas (11-1, 7-1 Big 12)

Offense: The Jayhawks roared out of the gates in September on the strength of an offense that scored so quickly, and so often, that it immediately forced opponents to alter their game plans just to keep up. KU dropped an average of 53.5 ppg on its first four opponents and then, after a 30-point ‘off-week’ against K-State, dropped another 58 on Baylor. When KU met Mizzou in Kansas City on Thanksgiving weekend, QBs Todd Reesing and Chase Daniel were at a crossroads. The two had put up similar numbers, with similar records and similar accompanying shock around their success. Whichever QB had the better game was going to be a Heisman finalist, and Daniel dominated the game, earning his ticket to New York. But Reesing’s year was equally spectacular. The junior went 256-409 this year, with an unbelievable 32:6 TD:INT ratio. Three of the picks came against K-State, and other than that, the numbers are even gaudier, 29:3. Will Reesing be an NFL QB? Heck no, but he’s been in a zone this year, reaching rare air with his accuracy and decision making. Reesing and KU haven’t been tested like they will be against VA Tech, and rattling Reesing is the best way to ruin KU’s offense. In the ‘Hawks’ two closest calls of the year, a tight win at K-State and the Mizzou loss, Reesing threw 5 of his 6 picks.

The rushing game was good for 197 ypg, 27^th nationally, and Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp are both solid backs, top ten in the Big 12. McAnderson, the senior, topped the century mark 5 times, with a mighty three game stretch of 434 yards and 8 TDs against A&M, Nebraska and Oklahoma State. Sharp, the sophomore, was the counter punch, going for 788 yards and 7 scores on the year; but Sharp was absent against Kansas, a fact that has been lost on the post-game commentary of that contest.

Junior WR Dexton Fields had a breakout year, with 56 catches for 733 yards and 6 scores. Unlike Reesing, Fields was at his best in the Jayhawks’ closest battles, catching a combined 14 balls for 194 yards against K-State and Mizzou. Marcus Henry is the home run threat in the passing game, turning 52 catches in to 994 yards and 9 scores. Henry is a big-time, grand slam kind of guy, and he benefits from Fields’ success over the middle. Fields will try to draw the safeties in, and Henry will find the deep seams.

KU’s offensive line was actually fairly mediocre this year, considering how good the offense was. The line was 47^th in the nation in sacks surrendered. I haven’t heard yet officially if Anthony Collins, the 310-lb. left tackle will play against the Hokies, but he’s probably the best offensive lineman. Collins dinged a leg against Iowa State, and he’s chiefly responsible for protecting Reesing’s backside. If Collins is out, the likelihood that Tech can create effective pressure on Reesing, and force the game-changing turnovers, goes way, way up. Center Ryan Cantrell will make the line calls in the no-huddle attack, and RT Cesar Rodriguez is KU’s only senior starting lineman.

Defense

Of all the reasons KU went 11-1 this year, a +1.58 turnover margin, tops in the entire nation, was the biggest. The Jayhawks were amazing at creating possession-changing plays and preventing them on the offensive end of the football. The defense deserves tons of credit for that, obviously, and the superstar of the KU defense is Aqib Talib. You’ve heard the name before, but remember it – I haven’t seen a lot of defensive players on Talib’s level when it comes to anticipation and vision. Talib only had 4 picks this year, and only one since October 6^th. He’s such a deadly pass picker, though, that he really won’t get much action, and Tech would be wise to throw away from him whenever possible. Talib also had 61 tackles and 8 receptions this year. He’s a great college football player, as good as KU has anywhere on the field.

The Jayhawks’ three leading tacklers are a trio of junior LBs that all finished in the top 14 in the Big 12 in dragging down opponents. Joe Mortensen, James Holt and Mike Rivera all nabbed 7+ tackles per outing, and comprise a linebacking corps that isn’t going to miss a lot of tackles, and is going to have the freedom to chase opposing backs all over the shop. Each of the backers is capable of taking over a game on the defensive end. In three of KU’s closest contests, against Mizzou, Colorado and Kansas State, Mortensen had 11+ tackles in each. And against the Buffaloes, in what has to be one of the toughest outings of any defensive player this year, Holt logged 12 solo tackles in a 19-14 slugfest. Running right at these guys probably isn’t the best strategy for the Hokies. I like a steady diet of counter and misdirection plays that capitalize on KU’s desire to pursue ball carriers with a vengeance.

KU’s weakness on defense is its front four, which finished 80^th nationally in sacks despite the fact that teams were passing against the Jayhawks constantly because of the huge leads they ran up. However, the defense was 4^th nationally in scoring allowed, and 14^th in yards, so even this d-line isn’t weak. Just vulnerable. Sophomore stud DL Maxwell Onyegbule was the sack leader, but only got one in Big 12 play. The real star of the line is James McClinton, a second-team All-American who made 11 TFL and 38 total tackles this year, and made himself a fixture in opposing backfields all day, every day. Stop McClinton, beat KU. It’s pretty simple. Caleb Blakesley and Russell Brorsen are decent parts of the machine, but McClinton will draw the double teams, and rightfully so.

Special Teams

Kicker Scott Webb probably never dreamed that when he came to KU, he’d score 114 points in a season, good for 2^nd in the Big 12. But that’s what he did in 2007, a tribute to KU’s dynamite offense and his accurate kicking leg. An interesting thing about Webb is that he doesn’t really scatter his misses; he’s either on or off. In two games this year, A&M and Mizzou, Webb went 2 for 7 on FGs. Over the other ten, he went 15 for 17. I’m not going to call the kid a head case, by any means, but Tech should know early if he has it or not. Kansas is awful in the punting game, absolutely awful. Kyle Tucker averaged less than 40 yards a boot this year, and the coverage was bad, too. 111^th in the country in net punting is an awful way to try to win football games. The seams will start to show against the Hokies, when KU has to punt a little more than it likes.

Prediction

The Jayhawks aren’t the dog a lot of folks on the eastern seaboard think they are. This is a team that was much more in it against Mizzou than a lot of people realized that didn’t watch the contest, and any time a team scores 43 or more points in 8 of 12 games, I’m going to give their offense some credit.

However, I like Tech’s 8^th ranked sack unit and 2^nd ranked scoring D to be able to do some things KU hasn’t seen, better than the Jayhawks expect. Pressure leads to Reesing errors, and as we’ve established, Reesing errors lead to KU struggles. Conversely, the one thing KU doesn’t do very well, rush the passer, is something teams have to do to beat Tech. Reesing, Fields and Talib will each make a couple plays that leave Hokie fans shaking their heads, but VA Tech will get a big special teams play and take control of the game in the third quarter, bringing the Orange Bowl trophy for a year’s residence in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech 27, Kansas 17.

Championship On The Line

BCS Championship

Ohio State (12-0) vs. Florida (12-1)

Jan. 8, 7:00 p.m. CST
Glendale (Ariz.)

OHIO STATE Overview: Not a lot can be said around these parts that everyone hasn't read or heard about this Ohio State team. The Buckeyes are absolutely loaded with talent on both the lines and at every skill position. They've only been challenged once all year, in this year's "Game of the Century," and they won it, 42-39. Illinois gave OSU their second best matchup of the year, but even that game was 17-0 midway through the 4th quarter. They score, they defend, they excite. They're really, really good.

Offense: Troy Smith won the Heisman by a gargantuan margin, the largest in history by players who never fled from police in a White Bronco. Smith is a surgeon at quarterback; his passes are crisp and incisive, his decisions precise and, almost always, correct. Antonio Pittman appeared to be fading in November, but saved his best for last with a 139-yard effort against the Wolverines. The junior from Akron doesn't need to get 100 yards against the Gators; he probably won't. He won't be called on to win this game. What he must do for the Buckeyes to be consistent on offense is log 4-5 yards a rush. If the Gators can stop Pittman cold, the nasty Florida front 7 will be able to pin its ears back and get after Troy Smith. If the Heisman winner has time, Ohio State will win by 10-14. If he doesn't, the game will be very, very close.

Defense: This one is kind of a mystery, and not because the Buckeyes don't have some all-world players here, because they do. They just haven't faced an offense designed like Florida's Urbanball scheme, so its hard to say exactly how they'll respond. If they can learn quickly, it shouldn't be a big surprise; six players from last year's OSU defense are now in the NFL. The job Tressel and Co. have done with the Bucks D this year pretty much defines the "reload not rebuild" mentality. Malcolm Jenkins will probably draw Dallas Baker whenever man coverage is appropriate, and that matchup is a huge key in the contest. If Jenkins contains Baker, it could be like a house of cards, with Leak losing his best option and making bad decisions to compensate.

FLORIDA overview

Offense: Can you remember a more polarizing player in recent college football history than Florida's Chris Leak?

When his name comes up, you don't get many shoulder shrugs; almost everyone passionately believes that he has held the Gators back for years, or that he's gotten the most awful, horrible, raw deal since the Native Americans that sold Jefferson the Louisiana Purchase for a couple cents an acre. Any QB that leads their team this far is doing something right, but his 13 INT this season are frighteningly high. In fact, only twice against a D-1 opponent this season did Leak NOT throw a pick. Its not really if, but when he makes a mistake. What will be the stakes and the field position at that point?

Deshawn Wynn's performance will go a long way toward answering that question. Florida's senior RB has to have the best game of his season, period. He's only been over 65 yards once since September 23, and the Gators just have to do better than that at moving the chains on the ground. Hopefully, Meyer and his offensive gurus have plotted some wrinkles over the last month.

Defense: This Florida defense is really the epitome of the great SEC defenses that win championships in America's premier football conference. None of the studs have really achieved star status, but when they're playing in Pro Bowls in five years, you'll check their bio and say to yourself: "Wow, I didn't know he went to Florida!" The loss of Marcus Thomas to disciplinary reasons hasn't killed the Gators yet, because Brandon Siler and Jarvis Moss have picked up the slack, leading a D that gave up only 13 points per game this year. The secondary hasn't been great, but if anyone in the back 4 can come up with even one game changing play, it has to be considered a big victory for Florida. As I said above, the pass rush is key. If Moss and Derrick Harvey are getting to Smith, this game is a coinflip. If Smith has time, he won't make mistakes, and Ohio State will win fairly easily.

Prediction: On paper, its hard to figure out how Florida is the second ranked team in the country. Their defense is very good, but the offense really isn't special. They should have lost to South Carolina and Tennessee, could have lost at Georgia and Vanderbilt, and took advantage of some unconscionable Arkansas miscues to win the SEC Title Game.

They're still a very good football team, but I'll go on record as saying the Gators are overrated at #2 and are going to need a Herculean effort from their defense and at least one big Ohio State miscue to win the game. The only thing that could work in their favor, and its almost immeasureable, is if OSU's long layoff since the Michigan game has the Buckeyes a little rusty.

It's a long shot to occur with Tressel at the helm, but if OSU looks stiff out of the gate and the Gators take an early lead, Smith won't have Pittman's runs to help him as much, and could fall victim to pass pressure.

Florida will win a national championship in 2007, but it will be in basketball, not football. After an impressive streak of college football classic games on big stages (OSU vs. Michigan, USC vs. Texas, Boise State vs. Oklahoma), Ohio State makes this one a snoozer by comparison, and brings the national title back to the Big Ten.

Ohio State 27, Florida 13.

For Recreational Purposes Only: Take Ohio State -7.5

New Year's Preview

OUTBACK BOWL

January 1, 10:00 a.m. CST
Tampa

Tennessee (9-3) vs. Penn State (8-4)

Line: Tennessee -4

TENNESSEE Overview – Philip Fulmer of Tennessee may be the most hated great coach in all of college football. In additions to several well publicized rivalries with other SEC coaches, Fulmer constantly fields criticism and disrespect from his own fan base, even with a recent national title on his resume. The Vols bounced back from last season's 5-6 disappointment with a solid 9-3 campaign in 2006. They didn't get a lot of press, with Arkansas and Florida dominating the SEC headlines. But Tennessee was quietly good, tough and consistent all season long. Their losses to Florida and LSU came by a combined 5 points.

Offense – If you can find a guy more lethal and physically gifted than Vols WR Robert Meachem, chances are he's wearing a cape and changing clothes in a phone booth. Almost half of Erik Ainge's passing yards went to Meachem this year, and if you can't stop him, you will lose. Meachem's two lowest yardage outputs of the year were against Arkansas and Florida, two of the Vols' three losses. That's no coincidence; the Ainge to Meachem connection is the beginning, middle and end of Tennessee's offense. When Ainge played the entire game, Tennessee went 9-1, which is a pretty remarkable stat for a guy coming off a year where his TD/INT ratio was 5/7. The Vols running game was essentially AWOL against good defenses, and don't expect much improvement against Penn State. If Tennessee is running the ball well, it won't be close.

Defense – Jonathan Wade has been counted on intensely to make big plays following several early injuries up front in September, and Wade has responded well. The roster is filled with a whopping 54 freshmen, and several key ones are on defense, creating lots of optimism for the future. This is a unit that just doesn't allow explosive outbursts. Tennessee is 30-0 since 2001 when scoring 30 points or more. Penn State is 27-1, so its safe to say whichever team gets to 30 will win the football game. The big let down of the year was against LSU, when the Vols surrendered 247 passing and 231 rushing yards. The key to beating Penn State will be bruising the Lion running game, forcing Morelli to make bad decisions.

PENN STATE Overview – If scientists did DNA testing on Joe Paterno, and found to actually be Chuck Norris, would you really be that surprised? At an age when most people have been retired for 15 years, Paterno keeps churning out good teams, even when he breaks bones in his leg while standing on the sideline. The foundation has always been defense, and this year is no exception. The Lions are giving up about 15 ppg, one of the best figures you'll see in that category.

Offense – Anthony Morelli didn't strike fear in to Big 10 defenses the same way Michael Robinson did, and his 10/8 TD/INT ratio isn't very good. RB Tony Hunt is excellent, and one of the most underrated players in the Midwest. Hunt went over 130 yards 7 times this year. He's also a valuable threat to catch the ball out of the backfield, and his presence has been well utilized to take heat off Morelli. I'll be shocked if the 6-foot-2, 235 pound senior isn't building a mansion with his NFL dollars in the near future.

Defense – The Penn State front seven is absolutely phenomenal, boasting two Bednarik finalists, Paul Posluszny and Dan Connor. As stated above, the defense is very sound overall, limiting opponents with a fierce run stopping attack. However, when QBs have time to throw, the secondary has a tendency to get beat deep. If the pass rush is subdued, Robert Meachem should have a big game.

Prediction – The ultimate battle here is the Penn State pass rush vs. Robert Meachem. If the Vols battered offensive line can sustain protection, Ainge will find Meachem deep. If Penn State's rush can create havoc in the pocket, the Nittany Lions have a chance to win.

Tennessee 20, Penn State 16

For Recreational Purposes Only: too close to call

How Much Should You Want to Watch this Game: 8

CAPITAL ONE BOWL

January 1, noon CST
Orlando, FL

Arkansas (10-3) vs. Wisconsin (11-1)

WISCONSIN Overview – Despite going 11-1, the Badgers are one of the least known quantities among the nation's top 25 teams. Wisconsin hasn't beaten a single good team all year, and got handled by Michigan in its only loss. Brett Bielema kept the train moving full speed ahead after Barry Alvarez' departure, and this game is Wisconsin's chance to prove that their future is just as bright under Bielema as it was under Alvarez.

Offense – Apparently some engravers are already busy etching PJ Hill's name in to the 2008 and 2009 Heisman Trophies. 1533 yards is a stellar freshman campaign, but Hill certainly didn't close well, going over 100 yards only once in the Badgers' final 4 games. In fact, he hasn't averaged over 5 yards per carry since October 21, and it will be very interesting to see if the month off rejuvenates his young legs. With a RB like Hill, its incumbent on the QB to avoid turnovers, and John Stocco's 19/4 TD/INT ratio has been just what the doctor ordered. How much dropoff from Stocco will there be if Tyler Donovan is forced into action? Another question for the Badgers offense. The offensive line is once again outstanding.

Defense – For as much press as Hill received this year, the defense has been borderline unreal, rating as the number 2 pass defense and number 3 scoring defense in the nation. This is even more impressive, since teams that spend most of their season with a lead get thrown on much more often than normal. This team gave up 116 points in 11 games, a big time stat against any competition. If you can't get excited about seeing a D like this take on an offense like the Razorbacks', I doubt your credibility as a college football fan.

ARKANSAS Overview – Remember last year when Houston Nutt was an awful coach? One 10-3 season later, Nutt has a contract extension and an SEC West title in tow. The Hogs were one of several teams that could have won their last couple games and been playing Ohio State in the national title, but the 10 win season still surpassed the expectations of almost everyone, save prognosticator Phil Steele, who had the Hogs as one of his surprise teams of the year. Is it really possible that this team has a coach named Nutt and two quarterbacks named Dick and Johnson?

Offense – I'm not sure how many teams in college football history have had two running backs go for 1,000 yards but zero quarterbacks throw for 1,000 yards. It's a testament to the Hogs complete reliance on the run, and their non-existant chances of remaining competitive when they have to throw. Casey Dick looked positively awful against LSU and Florida, throwing for a combined 13-39 and 177 yards in the two losses. Mitch Mustain may be the quarterback of the future, but he struggled enough to get benched in favor of Dick at midseason. RB Darren McFadden is probably the best QB on the team, and his numbers (1558 rushing yards, 14 TD, 149 receiving yards, 1 TD, 72 passing yards, 3 TD) usually don't occur outside of video games. The dude has a 249.9 passer rating, higher than the two starting QB combined. WR Marcus Monk is fantastic when the QBs can get him the ball.

Defense – The D was good this year, giving up only 18 points per game, and if you remove the 50 point disaster against USC, the average is about 15. The D is helped by the possession attack of the Hogs' running game, but has been genuinely good in its own right for most of the year. Its hard to tell if the unit is wearing down at season's end, or has just been overcome by good competition. They couldn't get key stops against LSU and Florida, and will have to shut down PJ Hill on lots of third down tries. Can they get it done?

Prediction – This one is really tough to call, because we know almost exactly how good Arkansas is, and have very little idea how good Wisconsin is. The Hogs have played 4 top ten teams, and even though they've gone 1-3 in those games, I think they're more prepared to play a game like this. I think this game is the most exciting matchup of all the bowls, and I'll be disappointed if its not an Instant Classic.

Arkansas 24, Wisconsin 17.

For recreational purposes only: Arkansas -1.5

How Much Should I Want to See This Game: 10

ROSE BOWL

January 1, 4 p.m. CST
Pasadena, CA

USC (10-2) vs. Michigan (11-1)

MICHIGAN Overview – One can argue the Michigan vs. Florida debate for years; the bottom line is, neither team distinguished itself significantly from the other, and voters were forced to make a decision without enough evidence either way. I think its incumbent on Michigan, as it always is on emotionally charged teams, to let their emotions support their actions on the field, and not overwhelm them. Oh yeah, and the USC team they're playing is pretty good.

Offense– If Michigan had beaten Ohio State in Columbus, its very possible Mike Hart would have gained the critical mass of popular opinion and gone on to finish as high, or higher than Troy Smith in the final Heisman balloting. He didn't, but his 1500 yard, 14 TD season didn't get tons of national attention. With Michigan's trio of spectacular WRs (Manningham, Breaston and Arrington) making all the highlight reel grabs, Hart epitomized toughness, lugging the little brown ball 301 times for an even 5 yards a pop. The Wolverines' dependence on a robust running performance is clear when looking at Chad Henne's numbers over the last three years; his yardage, TDs and INTs have all dropped every year as Michigan has grown into this year's elite outfit.

Defense – You don't put up numbers like the Wolverines D has without boasting extremely good LBs, and Michigan has three, LaMarr Woodley, Prescott Burgess and Dave Harris. The secondary didn't handle Ted Ginn too well, and although not many units do, it will be interesting to see if Dwayne Jarrett and the USC offense model their aerial attack after the one used by the Buckeyes. John David Booty hasn't seen a pass rush like this, and applying the heat will, as always, be of paramount importance.

USC Overview – They play in the Coliseum, they're the toast of Los Angeles, countless go on to NFL contracts every year, and they're accompanied on road trips by the gorgeous white-sweatered Song Girls, and yet…I just can't hate the Trojans. Under Pete Carroll, USC does everything great programs do; win close games, win big games, and win with class. And this year, they're winning with defense. Last year's much-maligned Trojan defensive eleven only gave up more than 24 once this season.

Offense – Don't get crazy at the highlight reel catches Jarrett and Smith make early in this Rose Bowl. The numbers to focus on are 86 and 55: USC's rushing output in its two losses. It doesn't matter how they do it, great playcalling, stretching the D, excellent blocking, Trojan success is directly tied to the young legs of CJ Gable and Chauncey Washington. Booty has to be considered a Heisman frontrunner for 2007, but his highest two yardage games of 2006 came in losses. If USC is running the ball well, even if the scoreboard doesn't reflect it early, they'll do well. Obviously, this is a tough task against the Michigan front 7.

Defense – You know you're dealing with a great coach when the keys to victory change due to team composition, but the stellar results remain the same. Lose two Heisman winners on offense? Oh well, we'll just trot out one of the best scoring defenses in the nation. The Pac-10 has plenty of wild offenses capable of scoring, and USC held all of them to 22 or below save Oregon State. Don't overlook the 14 point and 10 point performances at Arkansas and against Nebraska early on. Those were early season games, but the unit's proficiency on D is clear.

Prediction – It's really something how closely these teams align in overall stats. USC has 364 PF and 179 PA, Michigan has 362 and 175. Both teams finished with a loss to their rival and are disappointed, not thrilled, to be in the Rose Bowl. A late Mike Hart TD wins it for Michigan, and they finish the season ranked #2.

Michigan 21, USC 16

For Recreational Purposes Only: don't bet it

How Much Should I Want to See This Game: 9

Alamo Bowl Showdown

(This article originally appeared on www.orangeandbluenews.com.)

ALAMO BOWL

AlamoDome, San Antonio TX

3:30 p.m. CST, Dec. 30th

Texas (9-3) vs. Iowa (6-6)

Line: Texas -9

IOWA Overview – Remember back in August, when ESPN's Mark May was picking Iowa to make the national championship game in that hypothetical tournament SportsCenter did with magnets? Yeah, those days are long gone. A promising 5-1 start quickly evaporated into five straight Big 10 losses, including setbacks to Indiana, Northwestern and Minnesota. A confluence of factors did the Hawks in, among them; an unfortunate rash of injuries to key playmakers, an inability to stretch a defense with fast receivers, and an apparent lack of leadership. After a limping through a season which saw them lose at Kinnick Stadium three times (they'd only lost twice there in four years), its safe to say Iowa has a lot to play for against the Longhorns.

Offense – If anyone tries to tell you that Drew Tate makes the Hawkeye offense go, tell them otherwise. A healthy, effective Albert Young drives the Iowa attack, and AY will have to be clicking on all cylinders for the Hawks to have a chance. Damien Sims is about as good a second back as you'll find on a sub top-25 team; look for him to spell Young effectively. The Iowa WRs will be good in the future, but their time is not now, and certainly not against the physical, Texas D. In a rare occurrence, Kirk Ferentz failed to produce a stellar offensive line for the first time in recent memory. Kyle Schlicher continues the tradition of excellent place kicking.

Defense – Despite failing to consistently deliver the goods, the Iowa defense does have some outstanding individual playmakers, including defensive end Kenny Iwebema and safety Marcus Paschal. Hawkeye leading tackler linebacker Mike Klinkenberg is likely out due to a foot injury. The unit was also capable of producing huge efforts in big games, hanging with Michigan in Ann Arbor until a late TD produced the final, 20-6. Norm Parker has drawn the ire of fans in recent years for his playcalling (then again, really, which Iowa assistant hasn't), but its safe to say the defense was not the reason for the Hawks' disappointing 2006.

TEXAS Overview – The job Mack Brown did in Austin this year went mostly overlooked in 2006 due to season-ending losses to Kansas State and Texas A & M. But to that point, the 'Horns were 9-1, with victories over capable rivals Oklahoma State, Baylor and the eventual Big 12 Champion, Oklahoma. All this after handing the reins to freshman Colt McCoy, who left the state of Texas for the first time in shoulder pads to defeat Nebraska, 22-20. A series of brutal hits in the A&M game sent McCoy to the hospital but he has been cleared to play against the Hawkeyes.

Offense – Normally when you hear something like "We don't know which McCoy we're going to see," it's a comment about a player's consistency, and lack thereof. But in this case, Iowa really doesn't know which McCoy they're going to see; the injured freshman Colt, or his senior backup, Matt. No one knows much about Matt McCoy, but Colt came a long way in his first campaign, completing 68.7% of his passes for 2262 yards. The Longhorns staff does a great job of putting McCoy in low-risk situations, as evidenced by his 27/7 TD/INT ratio. Limas Sweed is very good, and Quan Cosby is a guaranteed mismatch for a number two cornerback like Adam Schada of Iowa. No one will hear too much about Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young until they're making millions on Sunday.

Defense – The question mark here for Texas won't be the talent of the players, it will be how they are coached. Defensive Coordinator Gene Chizik is gone to the head job at Iowa State, and while the 'Horns have had ample time to prepare for his absence, it would be silly to not wonder, at least, how the defense will perform in its first game without him. Aaron Ross is a stud CB, and the lines are, as always big and extremely physical.

Prediction – If Colt McCoy is close to 100 percent, the fourth quarter shouldn't matter. Iowa has an excellent coaching staff, and the defense is capable of big games. But Texas is too strong, too fast, and too good for this to be close.

Texas 33, Iowa 14

For Recreational Purposes Only: Texas -9

How Bad Should I Want to Watch This Game: 7 on a scale of 10.

Big Ten Bowl Preview

(This article originally appeared on www.orangeandbluenews.com.)

The Illini may not be in a bowl but that doesn't stop the Orange&Blue News from previewing Big Ten teams that play this holiday season. Today we take a look at the Purdue-Maryland, Minnesota-Texas Tech games.

INSIGHT.COM BOWL

Tempe, AZ

December 29, 7:30 p.m.

Texas Tech (7-5) vs. Minnesota (6-6)

MINNESOTA Overview – I'm going to write a few hundred words about this game, but here's the Cliff's Note: Minnesota can not stop the pass, and will lose to any team that can effectively complete passes without turning the ball over. And these aren't "we gave up a couple really big games and skewed the statistics" numbers. These are "we just kicked off the Kellen Lewis for Heisman" numbers. To the team's credit, they finished strong. And by strong, I mean beat three bad teams to go 6-6. As far as bowl teams go, the Gophers are pretty bad in my view.

Offense – While the Gopher D is dreadful against the pass, Bryan Caputo and the offense isn't too bad at throwing the ball around. Caputo put up some gaudy numbers against Indiana and Penn State, throwing for over 330 yards in each game, and was surprisingly effective against Michigan, tagging the Wolves for 215 and no INT. The key for Minnesota on offense is turnovers. Over the current three game winning streak, the Gophs have won the turnover battle 11-1. With that kind of security, Caputo is much more likely to inherit the ball in good field position and, additionally, keep the tragic Golden D out of bad field position, where just one or two passes will mean a score. Amir Pinnix had about the least glamorous 1,000 yard season one can imagine, going over 120 yards just once.

Defense – Here's a D that absolutely must create turnovers to give their offense a chance to win. When they don't win the turnover battle, here's what happens: combined losses to Cal, Wisconsin and Ohio State by a score of 134-29, and that's with turnovers 6-5 against the Gophs. In some cases, they managed to subdue teams on the scoreboard just enough to give the offense a chance to win the game. This would be a wise feat to replicate; the bend-but-don't-break, high yards but low points formula has proven effective against Texas Tech over the years.

TEXAS TECH Overview – Red Raider Head Coach Mike Leach is easily the nation's leader in "completely bizarre yet strangely profound" quotes per game, with his career best being the outstanding riff on "Mike's Pirate School" as a jab at Texas A&M a couple years ago. Always on the periphery of major coaching discussions, Leach has had the Raiders as consistently good as anyone in the Big 12 outside Oklahoma and Texas. 2006 was the first year in awhile he's put an underclassman in charge of his intricately designed brand of the west coast offense, and the growth Graham Harrell has shown since August is bad news for Minnesota.

Offense – 3rd in NCAA passing yards, 7th in total yards and 15th in scoring, there really hasn't been a big dropoff in production from this Texas Tech team compared to years past. While the offense does have the capability to throw deep, possession football is the word, and Leach's offense manages the football and the game extremely well. The spread passing game creates good chances for Shannon Woods, who compiled a very effective 6.1 yards per carry on the year. Joel Filani is a receiver in the Wes Welker mode, with big time numbers in catches and yards.

Defense – Texas Tech has had some bad second halves on defense, gagging a big lead against Texas, and showing a tendency to wear down when forced to go to the bench. The mystifying performance of the year was a 30-point surrender at Colorado. The Gophers might be wise to exploit the Buffaloes' game plan; Tech surrendered 228 yards on the ground. When you beat the Red Raiders defense, you do it on the ground.

Prediction – Amir Pinnix needs to have a very good game rushing, and the Minnesota offense must have no more than 1 turnover to really have a chance to compete. Harrell won't really have to do anything flashy to move the ball consistently, and Tech should have a relatively easy victory.

Texas Tech 36, Minnesota 20

For Recreational Purposes Only: Take Texas Tech -6.5

How Bad Should I Want to Watch This Game: 4 on a scale of 10.

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL

Orlando, FL

December 29, 8:00 p.m.

Purdue (8-5) vs. Maryland (8-4)

PURDUE Overview – The Boilers had to be about the most easy-to-predict, straight and narrow football team in the Big 10 this year. They didn't lose a single embarrassing game, and didn't really get close to an upset. They did exactly what you thought they'd do in every game. So the problem now, is clearly, figuring out if they're supposed to beat Maryland or not.

Offense – Curtis Painter tossed 3700 yards and 21 TD this year. The accompanying bad news is a whopping interception total of 18. That's just far too many for an offense to remain efficient, and it's the biggest explanation for how a team can finish 7th nationally in total yards, and yet not come within 12 of a single good team. The running attack wasn't too great to begin with, and key injuries suffered on Oahu during the Hawaii game will make Painter job's tougher. Dorien Bryant had a really good season at WR, snagging 79 balls for over 900 yards and 11 TD. He's got to get open early and often to keep some pressure off Painter, and keep him from having to find secondary and tertiary targets. That's when the picks start happening, and they will be Purdue's undoing.

Defense – Purdue's D has recovered a whopping 17 fumbles in 2006, and that stat has helped the unit appear a lot more formidable on paper than it really is. The yardage totals in the five Purdue losses is staggering; only Notre Dame among the five failed to tally 180 yards by both ground and air. That's a really bad stat, because it shows the D isn't getting beat by big play breakdowns in one consistent area. They're balanced, and not in a good way. Even in late season wins to Illinois and Indiana, the Boilers got beat for at least 430 yards. They're 112th in the nation in the run, and the trend is nothing new in West Lafayette. Since 2001, Purdue has a losing record when scoring less than 40 points. This is not the defense of a bowl team.

MARYLAND Overview – The ACC is kind of the anti-Big 10 this year. Unlike the Big 10, with two (maybe three) great teams, and really no quality in the middle, the ACC was loaded top to bottom with average to above average teams. I'd guess that 7 ACC teams; Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson would have all finished 4th in the Big 10. Maryland was in a position to seal a division crown not once but twice, and fell on their sword each time, sending Wake Forest to a conference title, and Jim Grobe to a National Coach of the Year honor. With only 12 seniors, this is a team on the rise, and Friedgen's squad should contend for division titles consistently in the coming years.

Offense– Sam Hollenbach. That's the name of a guy just destined to play Quarterback, isn't it? Hollenbach progressed a lot in the mid-autumn, and was an effective leader for most of the stretch drive, leading the Terps to 5 straight wins by a total of 13 points. The Terps have either been lucky or clutch when they don't bring their A-game; they're 17-6 when they score between 20 and 30 in the last 5 years. Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore present a two-RB tandem similar to Purdue's, but this pair is a little stronger and faster than their West Lafayette counterparts. None of the receiving threats are that scary; balance is the word on offense.

Defense – In seven games against non-ranked teams, Maryland is 7-0 while giving up 16.8 ppg in those games. The defense has been just good enough to win, and just will not let itself get beat by teams that aren't good. Adam Podlesh has been a solid weapon at Punter in close games, averaging at least 42 yards per punt in every ACC win this year. Defense has been the staple of the recent Friedgen era at Maryland, and this year's Terps personify that trend. Their goal is to be good enough to win, and they have been just that in eight games this year.

Prediction – The Terrapins haven't lost to a non-ranked team this year, and they're not going to start now. Maryland has three wins on their schedule better than any Purdue's. If they hold on to the football and force Painter to hurry his decisions and look for second and third options, they should win.

Maryland 28, Purdue 23.

For Recreational Purposes Only: Take Maryland in a pick'em.

How Much Should I Want to See This Game: 4.5 on a scale of 10.

Friday, an Iowa-Texas game preview.