Virginia Tech vs. Miami Preview

Tech kept rolling against the Seminoles and I got back on the horse with an accurate prediction on the Tech vs. Florida State game. How will both of us perform this week when the wounded Canes come to town? Here we go:

Miami (5-5, 2-4 ACC)

Offense: Beware the wounded animal. Miami got absolutely humiliated in its final Orange Bowl game ever, 48-0, by the Cavaliers. How has it come this far? There’s been plenty, plenty of ink spilled lately over the Hurricanes’ descent from prominence, so I won’t beat the drum too hard here. But it still amazes me how this squad that was the boogeyman for my generation of school kids has fallen to mid-tier ACC status at best.

Looks like Kyle Wright will go in Blacksburg after a horrendous 9-21, 94 yards, 3 INT outing against the Cavs that made Virginia look as if a Tech should be added to their jerseys. The senior certainly doesn’t want to be as the rare ‘Cane QB that doesn’t lead his squad to a bowl game, but he hasn’t completed more than 9 passes in a game since October 6^th. Sure, he’s been splitting time under center, but the question has to be asked: even if he has the full confidence of his coaches, can Wright play strong for an entire game? The Tech D should be able to feast on this guy. His big outings this year have come against weak competition: 224, 275, 230 and 302 against FIU, TAMU, Duke and No. Carolina. Against Oklahoma, GA Tech, Florida State and Virginia? Not an outing above 94 yards, and a 2:4 TD:INT ratio.

‘Cane RB Javarris James has the bloodlines, and he may also hold the key to Miami’s offensive success. In James’ 5 biggest outings of the year, the ‘Canes haven’t lost in regulation (they went down in OT on his biggest performance against NC State). In games where he runs for 55 yards or less, Miami is 1-4. Obviously, the young James gives Miami a spark it can’t duplicate elsewhere. RB Graig Cooper has been more solid game to game (7 of 10 games between 48 and 80 yards), but isn’t quite the sparkplug James is. Both players are young and should struggle against a hungry VA Tech D.

Darnell Jenkins is the only Hurricane WR that has even been passable as a big play threat this season, at 25 catches for 570 yards, but even then, the 2.5 catches per game is a really small number for a program built on speedy playmakers at the edge. Jenkins has been hut by QB play, to be sure, but hasn’t been nearly consistent enough to warrant high praise. The entire WR corps has been plagued by inconsistency, as almost all have had one big game but not been able to get open steadily. Lance Leggett, Sam Shields and Cooper all have some potential to hurt a defense, but don’t do it consistenly.

Defense: The D isn’t awful statistically but doesn’t have the stunning athleticism of the past top ‘Cane units. Overall, the D is 27^th nationally and 6^th in the ACC in yards surrendered, but just 43^rd and 8^th in points given up. The ‘Cane D hasn’t been mentally tough enough to be able to get the big stops needed to stop yards from turning in to points.

Up front, Miami does have 3 of the league’s sackers in Calais Campbell, Vegas Franklin and Teraz McCray. This is a unit where the ‘Canes have been good this year, at 4^th in the ACC in sacks and 3^rd in TFL. Campbell is probably the best athlete of the bunch. He’s picked off a pass, caught a pass, and registered 13 TFL and 7 sacks this year. For his career, the 42 TFL have resulted in 144 lost yards – that’s a fairly high number, and indicates that when he gets in to the backfield, he makes it count for a substantial loss. Senior DL Franklin hasn’t done much lately, but looked great with a combined 3 sacks against Duke and TAMU. If he steps it up for his final trip to Blacksburg, the Tech line could have some issues defending both these guys.

Senior LB Tavares Gooden is the ‘Canes’ leading tackler, with 91 on the year, including 10 at Florida State and 14 against Duke and Oklahoma. Gooden mostly hangs back and makes stops on the mid-range plays; only 3 of his 91 tackles have come in the backfield. Getting him to miss an assignment will be a tough task for the Tech offense. Sophomore Colin McCarthy is Miami’s most versatile LB, with 57 tackles, a pick, and 10 TFL on the year. McCarthy could be Miami’s next top-flight ‘backer if he continues to improve in coverage.

The pass defense has numbers that look fine at first glance, but look closer: despite being just 2^nd in the league in yards surrendered, the ‘Canes are 9^th in the league in pass efficiency defense. So teams aren’t trying to throw all that much against Miami, but when they do, it doesn’t prove too hard. This plays right in to Virginia Tech’s hands. Randy Phillips is the most dangerous ‘Cane in the secondary; not only does Phillips have a team-leading 5 INT, but boasts a combined 150 return yards on the 5 picks. When Phillips snatches the ball, everybody look out, dude’s a home run threat. 3 of the picks have come in the last 3 weeks. As long as Glennon doesn’t let Phillips snap off a big play, VA Tech should be able to throw.

Special Teams: Francesco Zampogna lost his job after early season struggles saw him make just 9 of 14 FGs. Darren Daley took over at Florida State, cashing in on all 5 kicks, but then tanked on two FGs against NC State that could have helped Miami beat the Wolfpack. Who knows what we’ll get this weekend, but odds are, it won’t be good. Miami is actually pretty bad in all areas of special teams. Punter Matt Bosher is 11^th in the league, as is Graig Cooper on punt returns. Advantage: VA Tech.

Prediction: I think its reasonable to think Miami may come out with an inspired effort on the heels of last week’s embarrassing OB finale. On the other hand, I think its reasonable to expect Miami to come out lifeless after last week’s embarrassing OB finale. So really, I don’t know what’s going to happen. I do know that VA Tech isn’t going to lose this game, not in Blacksburg, not on Senior Day, not one chance. Virginia Tech 32, Miami 14.