Virginia Tech vs. Florida State preview

Just when you thought the tough part of the schedule was in the past, here comes Florida State. The Seminoles beat BC in a game that might go a long way toward getting FSU’s once proud program off the mat to become ACC title contenders again. Let’s take a look at the challenges FSU presents.

FLORIDA STATE (6-3, 3-3 ACC)

Offense: Drew Weatherford might define the word “embattled.” It seems like the junior QB has won, lost, and won the QB job all over again almost every week this year, but after all of it, Weatherford finally seems to be peaking. Check out the numbers the last two weeks: 35-47 for 339 yards vs. Duke, 29-45 for 354 yards at Florida State. When you pair those kind of numbers with the raw athleticism FSU boasts on the edges all over the field, the combination is there for a very potent offensive attack. Weatherford has thrown just 1 INT in 192 attempts this year, a gigantic improvement on the 11 picks he threw in 311 attempts last year.

Antone Smith is FSU’s leading rusher, with 643 yards on 162 attempts. With Xavier Lee now riding pine, FSU doesn’t have anyone other than Smith with more than 87 rushing yards on the season. Obviously, the onus is on Smith to carry the load, and FSU seems to now exactly how much they want him to do offensively. The last three weeks, Smith has lugged the pig 22, 23 and 22 times. Another added consideration for the Hokies on D is that all of Smith’s big receiving days have come with Weatherford under center. Smith caught 5 passes in both the Clemson and Boston College games; Tech needs to mark him coming out of the backfield.

Preston Parker, Greg Carr and De’Cody Fagg represent a fearsome trio of talented receivers. All three are in the ACC’s top 9 in yards, and Parker leads the way with 46 catches for 609 yards and three scores. De’Cody Fagg is the hottest right now, with 15 catches and 245 yards from the hot hand of Weatherford in the last two weeks. The offensive line has allowed 1.78 sacks per game this year, good for 55^th nationally and 5^th in the league. The protection numbers aren’t bad, but considering the unit spent a good portion of the year blocking for the elusive Xavier Lee, and the pretty bad rushing numbers (96^th nationally), the offensive line has to be seen has a weakness Tech must exploit.

Defense: Although not quite the wall-to-wall athlete fest of old, Florida State’s defense is still a fearsome unit with big play potential in every line of defense. Geno Hayes is a stud linebacker with 136 career tackles and 31 career TFL. Hayes had the game sealing INT and TD at Boston College, and had at least one TFL in each of the previous six games. Derek Nicholson is a junior linebacker that has really come on this season. After recording just 6 tackles in the first five games of last year, Nicholson has 64 in his junior campaign, good for first on the team.

Up front, Everette Brown leads the team in sacks, with 5, but hasn’t had one since October 11^th against Wake Forest, and has actually only registered 4 total tackles since that game. DeKoda Watson is in the opposite boat from Brown, with all his TFL coming in the last five games. Watson is a sophomore with a really high upside, and a growing danger to make plays all over the field.

After FSU’s two leading tacklers, Nicholson and Hayes, the next four leading tackle men are secondary players, which may or may not be a good sign. Since the FSU pass D is 72^nd nationally and 10^th in the league, I have to think part of the reason for those padded tackle stats is the corners’ inability to cover receivers tightly. Roger Williams, Myron Rolle, Michael Ray Garvin and Tony Carter are the four players in the question, and have only 5 INT this year between them. You have to think part of FSU’s strategy will be to go after QB Sean Glennon in a big way. If that happens, FSU will likely play tight coverage against the Tech receivers. If the ‘Nole corners can’t hang with Tech’s deep threats, Glennon could uncork some big plays.

Special Teams

Senior kicker Gary Cismesia has 277 career points, and is a lock for high ACC honors this year. Cismesia has kicked 19 of 25 FG on the year and is tied for 2^nd in the nation in made kicks. Punter Graham Cano has been good too, with a 42.38 yard punting average that ranks 32^nd nationally. None of the return teams have distinguished themselves in either a positive or negative light.

Prediction

I doubted Tech last week, and I won’t again. FSU got a big win at BC, and in some cases that would be cause for alarm. But over the last couple years, the ‘Noles have been mercurial as it gets. This is a team prone to proving itself in a big way, then losing the chip on their shoulder and laying an egg the following week. I think Tech clamps down on the dormant FSU rushing game, forcing Drew Weatherford to beat them. He can, but he won’t, not this time, anyway. Virginia Tech 24, Florida State 13.