VA Tech BB Preview: Hofstra

There’s only one opponent for VA Tech over Christmas Week 2007, and it’s the struggling Hofstra Pride on Friday the 28^th. Tech will be looking to salvage some pride after a few recent rough outings. What’s the scoop? Read On:

Hofstra (2-6, 0-1 CAA)

The Pride currently occupy the cellar hole of the Colonial League, made famous to Hokie fans in recent years by the tourney successes of George Mason and James Madison. But Hofstra is on the other end of the 8-ball from those two mid-major beasts, staring at the business end of a 2-6 mark that has seen ugly early season losses to Holy Cross, Stony Brook, St. Francis and Fordham. Ouch. The only two wins have come by a deuce over Manhattan and Charlotte; but during a four game losing streak, the Pride dropped all four by four points or less. So I guess you could say they’ve got a lot of early experience playing in close contests.

The Hofstra attack is dominated by senior guard Antoine Agudio, a four year starter closing in on 2,000 career points. Agudio currently sits at 1,888 points, and its fair to say he knows a little bit about putting the ball in the basket. Agudio has averaged 15, 17, 20 and this year, 26.8 points a game. If he’s still averaging 27 points a game by year’s end, he’ll start to get some national attention as he approaches the 2,500 career point mark.

Agudio is a consistent outside shooter in just about every way. He’s been over 42% from beyond the arc in every year of his career, and he’s consistent game to game as well: in every game but one this year, he’s made at least 3 3-point buckets, and he’s shot at least 6 in every game. He’ll shoot, and he’ll make alot. No way around that. The key to stopping Agudio is - you can’t, really. He’s going to score. But with the added pressure of needing to carry a totally bad team this year, he’s forcing the issue a bit too much. Agudio’s turnover numbers are up to 3.9 a game from last year’s 2.2. If Agudio gets his 25, but Tech can force him in to 4-5 turnovers, Coach Greenberg ought to be satisfied with that performance.

The real key to beating Hofstra is to just not let anyone else beat you. Agudio will get his points. He scored 28 of his team’s 47 at Holy Cross, but the Pride still lost by 14. There just aren’t any other credible weapons. Charles Jenkins is a capable alternative, at 6-foot-3, 220 lb., with a 12.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg average line in his freshman season. He’ll contribute, but he’s nowhere near the put away threat Agudio presents, and not as deft with the outside shot either. Jenkins, too, has committed 3.9 turnovers a game; I think we’ll see as much pressure on the opposing guard corps as we’ve seen this year.

Beyond Agudio and Jenkins, Hofstra has relied on a steady rotation of bodies. No one else averages more than 26 minutes a game, but the leader is transfer Darren Townes, a 6-7 junior from New York City who leads the team with 5.8 boards a night. Townes is mostly a scoring threat on the put back, and hasn’t made a three all year. He’ll get a few rebounds. Some of the other threats are freshman swing Nathaniel Lester, who has exploded in to double digits in three of the last five, junior forward Dane Johnson, the biggest body on the squad, and Lithunian junior forward Arminas Urbutis.

Prediction: Tech is going to win this game by a lot. Antoine Agudio can only do so much. He’ll drain a few threes on the bigger stage, by if the Hokies don’t win this game going away, there’s big reason for concern. VA Tech by 19.