2006 BCS Conference Comparison

My buddy Mark, a huge Arkansas fan, texted me first thing Tuesday morning:

“See, I told you we could play football in the south!”

After Florida’s 41-14 drubbing of Ohio State, SEC fans feel vindicated, Big Ten supporters aren’t picking up the phone, and WAC junkies are just begging for a chance.

The Which Conference is Better debate never really stops, but intensifies dramatically around bowl season, with top teams from every conference in the nation going doing battle throughout the holiday season. There are plenty of fans, maybe even a majority, who will throw their support behind conference rivals they can’t stand in November just so their conference looks better on a national stage. So which conference really is the best?

There’s not much question that the SEC has the most potent collection of dangerous teams and this year, of course, has the national champion. During the season, when Ohio State and Michigan appeared to be the two biggest baddies in the land, a few commentators hailed the Big Ten as America’s premier conference because it boasted the two best teams. Occasionally, the PAC-10 or Big XII will get a nod thanks to a confluence of great athletes in the same season.

One thing that drives me absolutely criminally insane about the way announcers cover college football is their adamant refusal to really examine a question for an extended period of time. ESPN has completely diminished the excitement of a great argument by not letting their commentators speak for more than 20-30 seconds about any particular issue. One might perhaps suggest that this time limit exists because Lou Holtz, Mark May and Lee Corso rarely know enough about any one topic to speak much longer. I hate this attention-deficit “debate”; talking spout one or two talking points, and nothing really gets discussed. I’d much rather see a weekly half-hour show devoted to one particular question, or topic, like this one, than see a show try to devote 30 seconds to every topic imagineable.

So, in that spirit, I’m going to use this column to try to rank the 6 BCS conferences in 2006.

To attempt such a thing, you have to first agree on a definition of “best.” I, for one, don’t buy that the SEC is the best conference just because the national champion is from there. You also can’t throw around meaningless stats like “conference X has the most bowl teams.” Almost all bowls are done because of conference affiliations, so all that number does is show how badly a conference’s teams were desired a few years ago when the contracts were written. No method is perfect, because everyone has a slightly different, personal definition of what “best” means. But, for my money, the “best” way to determine “best” is by asking this question:

If you were a completely average team, the most average team in America, 59.5th best out of 119 teams…in which conference would it be the hardest to have a winning record?

In order to answer this question, I’m going to utilize the following method:

List each conference in order of how the teams finished the regular season.
Compare all the first place teams against one another, and then the second, and so on, assigning point values (6 for 1st, 5 for 2nd, etc.)
Different conferences have different amounts of teams, and therefore different max points, so at the end, we’ll divide each conference’s points by their max points, and get a %, where 100% is the best possible.

And then maybe we’ll know, at least in 2006, which conference truly was the best.

#1

ACC – Wake Forest
Big 10 – Ohio State
Big 12 – Oklahoma
Big East – Louisville
Pac 10 – USC
SEC – Florida

Obviously, you’ve got to put Florida tops here, and based on what we saw Monday, its not that close. Second is a really close battle between Ohio State, USC and Louisville. I’d like to give Ohio State the benefit of the doubt, thinking that they can’t really be as bad as they looked Monday, and they probably aren’t. But USC flat-out drilled a team Ohio State struggled to beat on their home turf, and I don’t see how you could bet against Pete Carroll with any time at all to prepare. Louisville did beat West Virginia, and we’ll credit the Cardinals for building a great home field advantage. But without any real impressive performances outside of that, I think they’re behind OSU and USC. Oklahoma is a fairly clear next choice, with Wake Forest being pretty far behind the pack at #6.

SEC (6), 2. Pac-10 (5), 3. Big 10 (4), 4. Big East (3), 5. Big 12 (2), 6. ACC (1)

#2

ACC – Georgia Tech
Big 10 – Michigan
Big 12 – Nebraska
Big East – Rutgers
Pac 10 – Cal
SEC – Arkansas

Ranking the #2 choices is difficult, because its almost indisputable that two of the #3s (Wisconsin and LSU) are better than all these teams right now. Since Arkansas lost to a Wisconsin team that Michigan beat by 14, I’ll take the Wolverines tops, followed by the Hogs. Cal and Nebraska might play to a near standstill, but I’ll take Cal in third because they beat Texas A&M by 35, and Nebraska needed a late TD to win by 1. Cal also has a slightly better “best win,” drilling Oregon State by 28, while the Huskers probably claim a 14 point win over Missouri in this category. Georgia Tech looked very good in the Gator Bowl, and Reggie Ball did a lot more good on the pine than he did under center. But even at their best, the Ramblin’ Wreck lost by 3 to a team Rutgers took to 3OT in Morgantown. So I’ll take Rutgers 5th, Tech 6th.

Big 10 (10), 2. SEC (11), 3. Pac 10 (9), 4. Big 12 (5), 5. Big East (5), 6. ACC (2)

#3

ACC – VA Tech
Big 10 – Wisconsin
Big 12 – Texas
Big East – West Virginia
Pac 10 – Oregon State
SEC – LSU

This is a surprisingly potent collection of teams, with Wisconsin, LSU and West Virginia all being legitimate top 10 teams, and Texas the defending national champ. LSU’s win over Notre Dame isn’t that impressive, because Notre Dame is…well that’s a different column. Wisconsin got it done all year, and despite being outplayed most of the game against the Hogs, got a big win in the Capital One Bowl. I think its LSU by a hair over the Badgers, with West Virginia not that far behind in third. Texas is a very powerful team physically, but didn’t seem to have the focus that made its 2005 unit great, evidenced by the Kansas State loss and the squeaker over a bad Iowa team. Had VA Tech beaten Georgia in Atlanta, I might take them above the ‘Horns here, but I think its got to be Texas, the Hokies and then a team that’s impossible not to like, the 10-4 Oregon State Beavers.

SEC (17), 2. Big 10 (15), 3. Big East (9), 4. Big 12 (8), 5. ACC (4), 6. Pac 10 (10)

#4

ACC – Boston College
Big 10 – Penn State
Big 12 – Texas A&M
Big East – South Florida
Pac 10 – UCLA
SEC – Auburn

This is where you start to see a major dropoff in some of the weaker conferences. Auburn is a runaway #1 here, having beaten the 4th best 2nd place team in the Outback Bowl. Before the bowls, I think BC would have been a clear cut #2 here. They boast three good wins (Clemson, VA Tech, Maryland). TAMU’s win over Texas and UCLA’s win over USC are better, but those teams didn’t do a lot the rest of the year. A&M was close, losing to Nebraska by 1, Oklahoma by 1 and Texas Tech by 4 for its only pre-bowl losses. We learned a lot about UCLA in their awful bowl performance against the ‘Noles, and I think their 6 losses really keep them from being taken seriously. Penn State impressed me in the bowl game, but I still don’t think their offense is that impressive. This is probably the toughest group to rank of all, but I’ll take Penn State second, Boston College third, Texas A&M fourth and UCLA fifth. South Florida is, of course, 6th.

1. SEC (23), 2. Big 10 (20), 3. ACC (8), 4. Big 12 (11), 5. Pac 10 (12), 6. Big East (10)

#5

ACC – Clemson
Big 10 – Purdue
Big 12 – Texas Tech
Big East – Cincinnati
Pac 10 – Oregon
SEC – Tennessee

Before the bowls, I definitely had Clemson leading the pack here, but that hangover of a performance against Kentucky was a headscratcher. Maybe they didn’t want to be there, or maybe they just weren’t that good in the first place. Tennessee wasn’t great against Penn State, but didn’t produce the huge yawn that the Tigers did, so I’ll go with the Vols first, Clemson second. Texas Tech is a puzzle, but showed what they were capable of doing with that dazzling second half against Minnesota. In fourth, I think you have to take the Cincinnati Bearcats, one of the least respected 8 win teams in the country. They gave Louisville all they could handle, beat Rutgers, fought hard against VA Tech, and pounded South Florida. They’d beat Purdue on a neutral field, a team that didn’t beat another winning team all year, and got clobbered silly by every good team they faced. The Boilers have a slight edge over the Ducks, who are a bad call away from being 5-7, and have won three games since September.

1.SEC (29), 2. ACC (13), 3. Big 12 (15), 4. Big East (13), 5. Big 10 (22), 6. Pac 10 (13)

#6

ACC – Maryland
Big 10 – Minnesota
Big 12 – Missouri
Big East – Pitt
Pac 10 – Arizona State
SEC – Georgia

Talk about a quietly awesome year. The Georgia Bulldogs finished 9-4 in 2006 with wins over South Carolina, Auburn, GA Tech and VA Tech. Disappointing losses to Vandy and Kentucky mar that record a bit, but its still good enough for tops here. Missouri is a fairly easy second, and I don’t think there’s a lot of competition for Maryland being third behind those two. Arizona State really doesn’t have a good win all year and doesn’t have a single bad loss either. They went down to Cal, Oregon, USC, Oregon State, UCLA and Hawaii and beat everyone else. I think they’re a bit better than Minnesota, who was 3-6 a few weeks ago, and is now looking for a coach because they took their 31 point lead on Tech and choked like a chicken bone. Pitt’s a bad football team.

SEC (35), 2. Big 12 (20), 3. ACC (17), 4. Pac 10 (16), 5. Big 10 (24), 6. Big East (14)

#7

ACC – Virginia
Big 10 – Indiana
Big 12 – Kansas State
Big East – UCONN
Pac 10 – Washington State
SEC – Kentucky

Yeah, I’m getting sick of giving the SEC top billing, but what choice do I have after Kentucky beat down Clemson in the Music City Bowl? Washington State has easily the best quality wins of the remainder, boasting wins over Oregon State, Oregon, UCLA and Baylor. That’s a decent resume this far down the ladder, and combined, the four wins are a little bit better than Kansas State’s signature victory, the upset of Texas. Virginia beat Miami when they were in ultimate self-destruct mode: big deal. They also lost to East Carolina, W. Michigan and Indiana. I’ve got to take the Hoosiers 4th here, despite their loss to UCONN in September. Indiana beat Iowa and Western Michigan, and UCONN absolutely tanked after winning in Bloomington, so they finish dead last.

SEC (41), 2. Pac 10 (21), 3. Big 12 (24), 4. Big 10 (27), 5. ACC (19), 6. Big East (15)

#8

ACC – Florida State
Big 10 – Northwestern
Big 12 – Oklahoma State
Big East – Syracuse
Pac 10 – Arizona
SEC – South Carolina

Spurrier’s Gamecocks are the best of this bunch, easily. South Carolina played had Florida backed in a corner, lost by less than a TD to Tennessee, Auburn and Arkansas. Only two good wins over Clemson and Kentucky, but enough for first. Arizona has a surprising amount of quality wins: BYU in September, and three straight against Washington State, Cal and Oregon in November. I’ll take the Wildcats over the two bowl teams in this bunch. Oklahoma State gets a slight edge over Florida State thanks to their jaw-dropping-when-its-on passing attack led by Bobby Reid and Adarius Bowman. FSU did beat UCLA, but was just awful down the stretch, gagging in chances against NC State, BC, Maryland and Wake during the stretch drive. They only beat Western Michigan by 8, and that opening night win over Miami is pretty irrelevant. Syracuse and Northwestern were both bad, but the Wildcats beat the Iowa team with Drew Tate that ‘Cuse couldn’t beat without him, so I’ll take Northwestern fifth.

SEC (47), 2. Pac 10 (26), 3. Big 12 (28), 4. ACC (22), 5. Big 10 (29), 6. Big East (16)

#9

ACC – Miami
Big 10 – Iowa
Big 12 – Kansas
Pac 10 – Washington
SEC – Alabama

The 9 hole is just littered with formerly proud programs who spent most of the year getting embarrassed. Every team on the list went 6-6, and this a balanced group in their mediocrity. I really think the best team on this list is the Kansas Jayhawks. KU won 3 of their last four, including a dominating victory over in-state rival K-State. The ‘Hawks took Nebraska to OT, lost to A&M by 1, and beat South Florida. That’s a better resume than anyone else on the list. Alabama is next, with a D that kept them in games they really had no business winning; their only losses by 8 or more points were to Florida and LSU. Iowa is a more disciplined team than the ‘Canes, and I think a Kirk Ferentz game plan would give the Hawks a narrow win. Washington was awful down the stretch, despite an exciting victory over Washington State in the finale.

Big 12 (33), 2. SEC (51), 3. Big 10 (32), 4. ACC (24), 5. Pac 10 (27)

#10

ACC – NC State
Big 10 – Michigan State
Big 12 – Baylor
Pac 10 – Stanford
SEC – Ole Miss

Its getting ugly down here. Ole Miss is the only team here that did anything at all down the stretch, getting wins over the worst two teams in the SEC. Baylor could score on any of these teams, and despite having no defense at all, I think they’d beat Ole Miss. I can’t believe I’m picking Michigan State to win anything, but NC State lost their last 7, and Stanford is the worst BCS team in the nation, so the Spartans come in third.

Big 12 (38), 2. SEC (55), 3. Big 10 (35), 4. ACC (26), 5. Pac 10 (28)

#11

ACC – UNC
Big 10 – Illinois
Big 12 – Colorado
SEC – Vanderbilt

You’ve got to give the edge to Vandy here, courtesy of their big win over Georgia. Colorado has the next best win, over Texas Tech, but I think Ron Zook’s Illini takes them on a neutral field. Illinois’ victory over Michigan State was the game that ruined John L. Smith’s season much more than the Notre Dame game. North Carolina is a distant fourth.

SEC (59), 2. Big 10 (38), 3. Big 12 (40), 4. ACC (27)

#12

ACC – Duke
Big 12 – Iowa State
SEC – Mississippi State

Somehow, the Bulldogs went to Tuscaloosa and won, making them a runaway top choice here. Iowa State wasn’t nearly as awful as their record indicated, but they’re not better than Mississippi State. Duke vs. Stanford. Now there’s a matchup you’d pay to see.

SEC (62), 2. Big 12 (42), 3. ACC (28)


OK, so we’ve done it. Top to bottom. Let’s look at the standings:

1. SEC 62 of 65 possible = 95.3%
2. Big 12 42 of 65 possible = 64.6%
3. Big 10 38 of 62 possible = 61.2%
4. Pac 10 28 of 58 possible = 48.2%
5. ACC 28 of 65 possible = 43.0%
6. Big East 16 of 48 possible = 33.3%

So, there you have it. To no one’s surprise, the SEC completely dominates these rankings, earning an astounding 95% of possible points. Maybe a bit surprising is the Big 12, coming in at 2nd place, barely edging the Big 10. The Big East had three pretty good teams, but going .500 in that conference should have been the easiest, by far, for a totally average team.

Even if you don’t agree with all the calculations, the overall trend of the results is hard to ignore.

And yes, Mark. They can play football in the south.

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