What are the Chances that ISU Makes the NCAA Tournament?

(This article originally appeared on www.big12-fans.com.)

Hey Big 12 fans. We’re happy to bring you the first weekly installment of the newest column on www.big12-fans.com: “Two Brians and a Brad,” a weekly look in to most important question in the sports galaxy of the Iowa State Cyclones.

The two Brians and Brad in question are all native Iowans and relatives who spend most family holidays, when the rest are eating turkey, watching old Cyclone highlight tapes or trying to win Ryan Koch the Heisman in NCAA 2007.

The goal of this column is to bring you inside Cyclone Nation, to the question of the week that we’d be wasting our time talking on the telephone about if we weren’t writing about it. Thanks for joining us.

This Week’s Question:

What are the chances that Iowa State makes the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament?

Brian #1

Most Iowa State basketball fans supported Jamie Pollard’s replacement of deposed coach Wayne Morgan with Greg McDermott last spring. That defeaning thump you heard just after the Cyclones’ oh-so-close OT loss to Kansas Saturday was the rest of Cyclone Country jumping on the bandwagon.

History, of course, will be the judge of McDermott’s success at Iowa State, but with everything we have to go with now, there seems little doubt that the Cyclones will be returning to the NCAA Tournament soon. But will it be this year?

McDermott’s Clones have three impressive showings in three Big XII games; a 66-65 road win at Missouri, a 71-62 defeat of Nebraska, and the aforementioned 68-64 OT loss to the Jayhawks. Iowa State has produced two consecutive conference Rookies of the Week, freshman Wesley Johnson has 9 double-doubles, newcomer Dodie Dunson is emerging as a capable backcourt option with a sweet stroke under pressure, and Jiri Hubalek has turned around a season that looked like it might end with a one way ticket to Prague, playing inspired defense and averaging 12ppg and 10rpg in conference play.

The schedule ahead isn’t terrible. The Big 12 is a strong conference this year but, as has been the trend in recent years, almost all the quality basketball is being played south of the Ozarks. Iowa State only has to play each of the South teams once, and gets a chance to do battle with its North opponents for 10 of the 16 conference games.

I don’t think Iowa State will be competitive at TAMU, Texas and Oklahoma State. Other than that, its becoming clear that a G-Mac coached team that follows the game plan is going to have a chance to win in the last five minutes almost everytime it takes the floor. However, it would be silly to think that a team this young, and without the ballhandlers that thrive in February and March, didn’t also have a chance to lose every game.

Nine wins will get the Cyclones to the bubble, sitting at 18-12 (9-7). If they could get to 9 conference wins, it would probably take 2 wins at the Big 12 Tourney to crack the field of 64, depending on how things shook out over the stretch drive. If the Clones can manage 4-3 against the North from here on out, holding serve against the weaker south teams at home (Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Baylor) would bump ISU to 9-7 in the Big XII.

There weren’t a lot of fans this side of criminally delusional that had Iowa State as a good preseason bet for the NCAAs. Most of us hoped to improve, gain experience, and sneak in to the NIT. So where the Cyclones sit now is a great place to be, from a fan’s perspective. Assuming there’s not a total collapse, we’re pretty much playing on house money. One thing to remember, however, is that if Wesley Johnson doesn’t get a great rebound put back in Columbia, this team is 1-2 and this year’s outlook might seem very different.

I don’t think ISU is an NCAA team this year, but I can’t rule it out completely. The game I’ve got circled on my calendar is February 17 at Kansas State. Coming off two tough South games and just at that point in the season where young players hit the proverbial wall, this will be a contest that could push the Cyclones toward success or failure for the rest of the campaign.

Chance of making NCAA: 18%

Brian #2

I have to be honest. I thought that there was almost no chance that “What are the chances Iowa State makes the men's NCAA basketball tournament?” would still be a legitimate question on January 17 as recently as a month ago. I fully expected the Cyclones to be 0-3 at this point in the conference season. Instead we are sitting at 2-1 with the only loss being in overtime to Kansas.

At 11-6, we need to win 8 more games to put ourselves on the good side of the NCAA tournament bubble. Of our remaining 13 regular season games, I see 4 games that can most likely be chalked up as losses. Roadies at Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M aren’t games that I feel this team is ready to win (although I thought the same thing about the Missouri game.) Both Colorado games, on the other hand, should be victories. That means that in the other 7 games and the conference tournament, all of which I consider tossups at this point, we need to manage to find 6 victories. That seems improbable to me for a couple of reasons.

Greg McDermott only has 8 players that can play extended minutes. Star guard Michael Taylor is averaging over 36 minutes over the past 7 games, and forward Wesley Johnson is averaging nearly 35 minutes over that span. Both of these guys are in their first year of Division One basketball, and I just can’t see them (or the other Cyclones playing major minutes) maintaining their high level of play over the duration of the entire Big 12 conference season at this pace. This team reminds of the 2001 team that eventually lost to Hampton in the NCAA tournament. That team was obviously on a different level performance wise, but Larry Eustachy got everything he could out of that team and they ended up running out of gas at just the wrong time. I see this year’s Cyclone squad hitting the wall with 3 or 4 games still left on their schedule and falling short of the resume necessary for a tournament bid.

Now, I could be wrong. This team could be extremely well conditioned and just hitting their stride, like it would appear if you were to just look at the last three games. Keep in mind, however, that McDermott’s UNI team started 19-3 before losing 6 of their last 10 games entering the NCAA tournament, and then bowed out in the first round. McDermott’s ability to push his team past their breaking point is the only reason we have any chance at all to be a part of March Madness, but it is also the reason that I believe that chances of making the NCAA are still very slim.

Chance of making NCAA: 10%

Brad

When Greg McDermott inherited the Iowa State men’s basketball program in the spring of 2006, his challenge was comparable to the one the U.S. faced during The Great Depression. With only four returning players from last year’s team, along with some “leftovers” he was able to land late, some thought ISU would have trouble competing in the Ames YMCA league. Just like FDR knew then, McDermott knows now that it’s going to take more than a few small tweaks in policy to get out of the mess his predecessors left. ISU needs to win a war.

After three battles thus far, ISU is an unexpected 2-1. Saturday’s game against Kansas gave Cyclone fans reason to cry…and hope. The remaining 13 battles in this war are not going to be easy, but the team that lost to Drake, UNI, and Iowa just a few weeks ago is, thankfully, missing in action. McDermott has Iowa State playing at a high level with more cohesiveness than we saw when Curtis Stinson was in Ames frequenting Taco Time. The Johnson newcomers are performing better than anyone could have reasonably expected. Cory Johnson, although green, gave every ounce of his 6-7 body defending 7-1 monster Greg Oden in Columbus. Wesley Johnson is looking like ISU’s best player and if he keeps averaging nearly a double/double, he’ll be one of the most decorated Cyclones in history. Jean Prioleau deserves a Bronze Star for landing him in the late period.

Ten days ago, McDermott was close to granting Jiri Hubalek an honorable discharge back to the Czech Republic. Now he has the 6-11 big man under control and playing the best post defense of his career. Michael Taylor probably makes fans more nervous than opposing teams, and his play probably wouldn’t be tolerated by these coaches under normal circumstances. But no one can argue that the Cyclones need a take-charge type of player, and his 16 misses against the Jayhawks can be reconciled by moments where he goes off to the point where you look at his eyes and can only see white. The guy truly does get possessed.

I expect ISU to win the next two against Colorado and KState to start the conference season an impressive 4-1. The home tossups against Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Missouri will go a long way towards determining the Cyclones’ tourney hopes. If they can continue the gritty play they have showed in the first three battles, more of these tossups than not will go Iowa State’s way. Although if one of Iowa State’s must-have players becomes unavailable for whatever reason, the momentum could change fast. Memo to those two players: Wesley—stay healthy. Mike Taylor—keep doing your homework.

To be sure, ISU does not have the Barney Fife of yesteryear prosecuting this war. In Greg McDermott, it has its own Chesty Puller.

Chances of Making NCAA: 51%


Brian #1 is a freelance writer living in Chicago, and a regular contributor to Rivals.com and his website, briankgolden.blogspot.com. Brian #2 is a sophomore at Iowa State University majoring in finance and Spanish. Brad is a junior at Notre Dame, majoring in Economics and Philosophy.