A Look Ahead

(This article originally appeared on www.hokiehaven.com.)

Overview

After the roller-coaster of last season's emotional Duke loss, the Hokies bottomed out, losing their next five, and turning what looked to be an NCAA run into an 0-6 ACC start. This week, the 2007 team has the chance to show how much its grown in just a year, and not take a nose dive after an emotional game in Durham.

UNC-Greensboro

Greensboro is exactly the challenge Virginia Tech is looking for coming off Saturday's 69-67 stunner at Duke. The Spartans have shown an ability to win games, but should be no match for the Hokies' depth and athleticism. In addition to the physical mismatch, Greensboro heads home to face Virginia Tech as part of a positively brutal road trip. In the seven days since January 2, the unit has played three road games all decided by four points or less. The Spartans' most recent battle was a 72-68 conquest at Elon on Monday night.

The beginning, middle and end of the Greensboro attack is junior Kyle Hines. Three nights ago, the 6-foot-6, 230-pound forward set the school's career record for double-doubles, logging his 28th against Western Carolina. Hines really is a player that does it all; he's averaging 21 points, 10 rebounds, 2.3 blocks and 1.5 assists per game. He's certainly one of the favorites for Southern Conference Player of the Year honors, and will probably make the Hokie interior defense look soft a few times on Wednesday night. However, if Tech locks down the perimeter targets, Hines isn't enough of a player to win the game on his own.

Ricky Hickman is the Spartans' second leading scorer, but isn't a very good shooter, either from outside, inside or the free throw stripe. After Hickman, the scoring drops off a lot, with Greensboro getting between 5 and 8 points per game from five players, the best of whom might be Ben Stywall (6.1 ppg, 7.9 rpg). Stywall still turns the ball over too much, but has made strides in his freshman campaign. Dwayne Johnson logs the team's second most minutes, and distributes fairly well, notching about 5 assists a game.

Greensboro probably won't start a player over 6-foot-6, and the Spartans have no real discernible advantage over the Hokies. Their two point overtime loss at NC State last Tuesday might scare Hokie fans a bit, but it will be difficult to replicate their 16-36 3-point shooting on that night. Hickman hit 5 threes and Kendall Toney drained 8. Toney's emergence as an outside threat has coincided with improved play by the Spartans overall. Since a December 4 loss at Davidson, Toney has hit 22 of 40 from behind the arc, including at least two in each game. If Greensboro doesn't get that kind of shooting from Toney or someone else, this game should be over by the early second half. The Hokies owe it to themselves, after last year's post-Duke tumble, to come out with a dominant effort and should win by 12-18.

North Carolina

And the reward for hard work is…more work. Just a week after disposing of Duke, Virginia Tech greets top-ranked North Carolina. It's awfully hard to tell how good a team like North Carolina really is this early in the year. Thanks to the immense talent in Chapel Hill, Roy Williams has a little more time than most coaches to tinker with lineups, play combinations, feel his way through the early part of the year than most coaches, who have to worry about maximizing talent immediately so they can win games. And yet, the results have been very good so far, with only a loss to Gonzaga marring a 14-1 slate.

You have to be awed by depth Carolina is attempting to establish during the early-mid portion of their schedule. A whopping 10 men average at least 12 minutes a game, with reigning NCAA Freshman of the Year Tyler Hansbrough leading the way with just 28. What's startling about Hansbrough is how similar his stats this year are to those he amassed last year (2006: 18.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 57% FG, 74% FT, 2007: 18.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 54% FG, 74% FT). That kind of consistency is truly remarkable in a younger player, and any kind of defense Tech can throw at Carolina to keep Hansbrough from getting comfortable and in a rhythm will be a good thing.

Incredibly, Reyshawn Terry is the only upperclassman averaging more than 14 minutes. Terry hasn't looked good lately, going for double figures in scoring only once in five games, including a goose egg Sunday against Florida State. You have to think the senior will be really focused on dialing up his play for ACC time, and if he gets going along with Hansbrough, the one-two punch could be a death blow for Virginia Tech. Stopping Terry from being influential is probably the key to winning against Carolina. For a team as young as the Heels, losing their lone senior will always open the door for catastrophe. Hassling Terry early is of utmost importance.

The Hokies don't have to win this game; every goal they set for themselves preseason can be accomplished even with a loss at home to the Heels. What can not happen is for Tech to shoot themselves in the foot, play without focus, and get run out of the gym. All the momentum built in the Duke win can be retained with a strong, disciplined effort that results in a close loss. I can't pick Virginia Tech to win this game, but I do think they'll build on the Duke win with a strong effort. They'll lose the game, but it won't be a knockout; it will be a 5-10 point setback, showing both themselves and the ACC that they're anything but a one hit wonder.