(This article originally appeared on www.orangeandbluenews.com.)
The Illini may not be in a bowl but that doesn't stop the Orange&Blue News from previewing Big Ten teams that play this holiday season. Today we take a look at the Purdue-Maryland, Minnesota-Texas Tech games.
INSIGHT.COM BOWL
Tempe, AZ
December 29, 7:30 p.m.
Texas Tech (7-5) vs. Minnesota (6-6)
MINNESOTA Overview – I'm going to write a few hundred words about this game, but here's the Cliff's Note: Minnesota can not stop the pass, and will lose to any team that can effectively complete passes without turning the ball over. And these aren't "we gave up a couple really big games and skewed the statistics" numbers. These are "we just kicked off the Kellen Lewis for Heisman" numbers. To the team's credit, they finished strong. And by strong, I mean beat three bad teams to go 6-6. As far as bowl teams go, the Gophers are pretty bad in my view.
Offense – While the Gopher D is dreadful against the pass, Bryan Caputo and the offense isn't too bad at throwing the ball around. Caputo put up some gaudy numbers against Indiana and Penn State, throwing for over 330 yards in each game, and was surprisingly effective against Michigan, tagging the Wolves for 215 and no INT. The key for Minnesota on offense is turnovers. Over the current three game winning streak, the Gophs have won the turnover battle 11-1. With that kind of security, Caputo is much more likely to inherit the ball in good field position and, additionally, keep the tragic Golden D out of bad field position, where just one or two passes will mean a score. Amir Pinnix had about the least glamorous 1,000 yard season one can imagine, going over 120 yards just once.
Defense – Here's a D that absolutely must create turnovers to give their offense a chance to win. When they don't win the turnover battle, here's what happens: combined losses to Cal, Wisconsin and Ohio State by a score of 134-29, and that's with turnovers 6-5 against the Gophs. In some cases, they managed to subdue teams on the scoreboard just enough to give the offense a chance to win the game. This would be a wise feat to replicate; the bend-but-don't-break, high yards but low points formula has proven effective against Texas Tech over the years.
TEXAS TECH Overview – Red Raider Head Coach Mike Leach is easily the nation's leader in "completely bizarre yet strangely profound" quotes per game, with his career best being the outstanding riff on "Mike's Pirate School" as a jab at Texas A&M a couple years ago. Always on the periphery of major coaching discussions, Leach has had the Raiders as consistently good as anyone in the Big 12 outside Oklahoma and Texas. 2006 was the first year in awhile he's put an underclassman in charge of his intricately designed brand of the west coast offense, and the growth Graham Harrell has shown since August is bad news for Minnesota.
Offense – 3rd in NCAA passing yards, 7th in total yards and 15th in scoring, there really hasn't been a big dropoff in production from this Texas Tech team compared to years past. While the offense does have the capability to throw deep, possession football is the word, and Leach's offense manages the football and the game extremely well. The spread passing game creates good chances for Shannon Woods, who compiled a very effective 6.1 yards per carry on the year. Joel Filani is a receiver in the Wes Welker mode, with big time numbers in catches and yards.
Defense – Texas Tech has had some bad second halves on defense, gagging a big lead against Texas, and showing a tendency to wear down when forced to go to the bench. The mystifying performance of the year was a 30-point surrender at Colorado. The Gophers might be wise to exploit the Buffaloes' game plan; Tech surrendered 228 yards on the ground. When you beat the Red Raiders defense, you do it on the ground.
Prediction – Amir Pinnix needs to have a very good game rushing, and the Minnesota offense must have no more than 1 turnover to really have a chance to compete. Harrell won't really have to do anything flashy to move the ball consistently, and Tech should have a relatively easy victory.
Texas Tech 36, Minnesota 20
For Recreational Purposes Only: Take Texas Tech -6.5
How Bad Should I Want to Watch This Game: 4 on a scale of 10.
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
Orlando, FL
December 29, 8:00 p.m.
Purdue (8-5) vs. Maryland (8-4)
PURDUE Overview – The Boilers had to be about the most easy-to-predict, straight and narrow football team in the Big 10 this year. They didn't lose a single embarrassing game, and didn't really get close to an upset. They did exactly what you thought they'd do in every game. So the problem now, is clearly, figuring out if they're supposed to beat Maryland or not.
Offense – Curtis Painter tossed 3700 yards and 21 TD this year. The accompanying bad news is a whopping interception total of 18. That's just far too many for an offense to remain efficient, and it's the biggest explanation for how a team can finish 7th nationally in total yards, and yet not come within 12 of a single good team. The running attack wasn't too great to begin with, and key injuries suffered on Oahu during the Hawaii game will make Painter job's tougher. Dorien Bryant had a really good season at WR, snagging 79 balls for over 900 yards and 11 TD. He's got to get open early and often to keep some pressure off Painter, and keep him from having to find secondary and tertiary targets. That's when the picks start happening, and they will be Purdue's undoing.
Defense – Purdue's D has recovered a whopping 17 fumbles in 2006, and that stat has helped the unit appear a lot more formidable on paper than it really is. The yardage totals in the five Purdue losses is staggering; only Notre Dame among the five failed to tally 180 yards by both ground and air. That's a really bad stat, because it shows the D isn't getting beat by big play breakdowns in one consistent area. They're balanced, and not in a good way. Even in late season wins to Illinois and Indiana, the Boilers got beat for at least 430 yards. They're 112th in the nation in the run, and the trend is nothing new in West Lafayette. Since 2001, Purdue has a losing record when scoring less than 40 points. This is not the defense of a bowl team.
MARYLAND Overview – The ACC is kind of the anti-Big 10 this year. Unlike the Big 10, with two (maybe three) great teams, and really no quality in the middle, the ACC was loaded top to bottom with average to above average teams. I'd guess that 7 ACC teams; Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson would have all finished 4th in the Big 10. Maryland was in a position to seal a division crown not once but twice, and fell on their sword each time, sending Wake Forest to a conference title, and Jim Grobe to a National Coach of the Year honor. With only 12 seniors, this is a team on the rise, and Friedgen's squad should contend for division titles consistently in the coming years.
Offense– Sam Hollenbach. That's the name of a guy just destined to play Quarterback, isn't it? Hollenbach progressed a lot in the mid-autumn, and was an effective leader for most of the stretch drive, leading the Terps to 5 straight wins by a total of 13 points. The Terps have either been lucky or clutch when they don't bring their A-game; they're 17-6 when they score between 20 and 30 in the last 5 years. Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore present a two-RB tandem similar to Purdue's, but this pair is a little stronger and faster than their West Lafayette counterparts. None of the receiving threats are that scary; balance is the word on offense.
Defense – In seven games against non-ranked teams, Maryland is 7-0 while giving up 16.8 ppg in those games. The defense has been just good enough to win, and just will not let itself get beat by teams that aren't good. Adam Podlesh has been a solid weapon at Punter in close games, averaging at least 42 yards per punt in every ACC win this year. Defense has been the staple of the recent Friedgen era at Maryland, and this year's Terps personify that trend. Their goal is to be good enough to win, and they have been just that in eight games this year.
Prediction – The Terrapins haven't lost to a non-ranked team this year, and they're not going to start now. Maryland has three wins on their schedule better than any Purdue's. If they hold on to the football and force Painter to hurry his decisions and look for second and third options, they should win.
Maryland 28, Purdue 23.
For Recreational Purposes Only: Take Maryland in a pick'em.
How Much Should I Want to See This Game: 4.5 on a scale of 10.
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