OUTBACK BOWL
January 1, 10:00 a.m. CST
Tampa
Tennessee (9-3) vs. Penn State (8-4)
Line: Tennessee -4
TENNESSEE Overview – Philip Fulmer of Tennessee may be the most hated great coach in all of college football. In additions to several well publicized rivalries with other SEC coaches, Fulmer constantly fields criticism and disrespect from his own fan base, even with a recent national title on his resume. The Vols bounced back from last season's 5-6 disappointment with a solid 9-3 campaign in 2006. They didn't get a lot of press, with Arkansas and Florida dominating the SEC headlines. But Tennessee was quietly good, tough and consistent all season long. Their losses to Florida and LSU came by a combined 5 points.
Offense – If you can find a guy more lethal and physically gifted than Vols WR Robert Meachem, chances are he's wearing a cape and changing clothes in a phone booth. Almost half of Erik Ainge's passing yards went to Meachem this year, and if you can't stop him, you will lose. Meachem's two lowest yardage outputs of the year were against Arkansas and Florida, two of the Vols' three losses. That's no coincidence; the Ainge to Meachem connection is the beginning, middle and end of Tennessee's offense. When Ainge played the entire game, Tennessee went 9-1, which is a pretty remarkable stat for a guy coming off a year where his TD/INT ratio was 5/7. The Vols running game was essentially AWOL against good defenses, and don't expect much improvement against Penn State. If Tennessee is running the ball well, it won't be close.
Defense – Jonathan Wade has been counted on intensely to make big plays following several early injuries up front in September, and Wade has responded well. The roster is filled with a whopping 54 freshmen, and several key ones are on defense, creating lots of optimism for the future. This is a unit that just doesn't allow explosive outbursts. Tennessee is 30-0 since 2001 when scoring 30 points or more. Penn State is 27-1, so its safe to say whichever team gets to 30 will win the football game. The big let down of the year was against LSU, when the Vols surrendered 247 passing and 231 rushing yards. The key to beating Penn State will be bruising the Lion running game, forcing Morelli to make bad decisions.
PENN STATE Overview – If scientists did DNA testing on Joe Paterno, and found to actually be Chuck Norris, would you really be that surprised? At an age when most people have been retired for 15 years, Paterno keeps churning out good teams, even when he breaks bones in his leg while standing on the sideline. The foundation has always been defense, and this year is no exception. The Lions are giving up about 15 ppg, one of the best figures you'll see in that category.
Offense – Anthony Morelli didn't strike fear in to Big 10 defenses the same way Michael Robinson did, and his 10/8 TD/INT ratio isn't very good. RB Tony Hunt is excellent, and one of the most underrated players in the Midwest. Hunt went over 130 yards 7 times this year. He's also a valuable threat to catch the ball out of the backfield, and his presence has been well utilized to take heat off Morelli. I'll be shocked if the 6-foot-2, 235 pound senior isn't building a mansion with his NFL dollars in the near future.
Defense – The Penn State front seven is absolutely phenomenal, boasting two Bednarik finalists, Paul Posluszny and Dan Connor. As stated above, the defense is very sound overall, limiting opponents with a fierce run stopping attack. However, when QBs have time to throw, the secondary has a tendency to get beat deep. If the pass rush is subdued, Robert Meachem should have a big game.
Prediction – The ultimate battle here is the Penn State pass rush vs. Robert Meachem. If the Vols battered offensive line can sustain protection, Ainge will find Meachem deep. If Penn State's rush can create havoc in the pocket, the Nittany Lions have a chance to win.
Tennessee 20, Penn State 16
For Recreational Purposes Only: too close to call
How Much Should You Want to Watch this Game: 8
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
January 1, noon CST
Orlando, FL
Arkansas (10-3) vs. Wisconsin (11-1)
WISCONSIN Overview – Despite going 11-1, the Badgers are one of the least known quantities among the nation's top 25 teams. Wisconsin hasn't beaten a single good team all year, and got handled by Michigan in its only loss. Brett Bielema kept the train moving full speed ahead after Barry Alvarez' departure, and this game is Wisconsin's chance to prove that their future is just as bright under Bielema as it was under Alvarez.
Offense – Apparently some engravers are already busy etching PJ Hill's name in to the 2008 and 2009 Heisman Trophies. 1533 yards is a stellar freshman campaign, but Hill certainly didn't close well, going over 100 yards only once in the Badgers' final 4 games. In fact, he hasn't averaged over 5 yards per carry since October 21, and it will be very interesting to see if the month off rejuvenates his young legs. With a RB like Hill, its incumbent on the QB to avoid turnovers, and John Stocco's 19/4 TD/INT ratio has been just what the doctor ordered. How much dropoff from Stocco will there be if Tyler Donovan is forced into action? Another question for the Badgers offense. The offensive line is once again outstanding.
Defense – For as much press as Hill received this year, the defense has been borderline unreal, rating as the number 2 pass defense and number 3 scoring defense in the nation. This is even more impressive, since teams that spend most of their season with a lead get thrown on much more often than normal. This team gave up 116 points in 11 games, a big time stat against any competition. If you can't get excited about seeing a D like this take on an offense like the Razorbacks', I doubt your credibility as a college football fan.
ARKANSAS Overview – Remember last year when Houston Nutt was an awful coach? One 10-3 season later, Nutt has a contract extension and an SEC West title in tow. The Hogs were one of several teams that could have won their last couple games and been playing Ohio State in the national title, but the 10 win season still surpassed the expectations of almost everyone, save prognosticator Phil Steele, who had the Hogs as one of his surprise teams of the year. Is it really possible that this team has a coach named Nutt and two quarterbacks named Dick and Johnson?
Offense – I'm not sure how many teams in college football history have had two running backs go for 1,000 yards but zero quarterbacks throw for 1,000 yards. It's a testament to the Hogs complete reliance on the run, and their non-existant chances of remaining competitive when they have to throw. Casey Dick looked positively awful against LSU and Florida, throwing for a combined 13-39 and 177 yards in the two losses. Mitch Mustain may be the quarterback of the future, but he struggled enough to get benched in favor of Dick at midseason. RB Darren McFadden is probably the best QB on the team, and his numbers (1558 rushing yards, 14 TD, 149 receiving yards, 1 TD, 72 passing yards, 3 TD) usually don't occur outside of video games. The dude has a 249.9 passer rating, higher than the two starting QB combined. WR Marcus Monk is fantastic when the QBs can get him the ball.
Defense – The D was good this year, giving up only 18 points per game, and if you remove the 50 point disaster against USC, the average is about 15. The D is helped by the possession attack of the Hogs' running game, but has been genuinely good in its own right for most of the year. Its hard to tell if the unit is wearing down at season's end, or has just been overcome by good competition. They couldn't get key stops against LSU and Florida, and will have to shut down PJ Hill on lots of third down tries. Can they get it done?
Prediction – This one is really tough to call, because we know almost exactly how good Arkansas is, and have very little idea how good Wisconsin is. The Hogs have played 4 top ten teams, and even though they've gone 1-3 in those games, I think they're more prepared to play a game like this. I think this game is the most exciting matchup of all the bowls, and I'll be disappointed if its not an Instant Classic.
Arkansas 24, Wisconsin 17.
For recreational purposes only: Arkansas -1.5
How Much Should I Want to See This Game: 10
ROSE BOWL
January 1, 4 p.m. CST
Pasadena, CA
USC (10-2) vs. Michigan (11-1)
MICHIGAN Overview – One can argue the Michigan vs. Florida debate for years; the bottom line is, neither team distinguished itself significantly from the other, and voters were forced to make a decision without enough evidence either way. I think its incumbent on Michigan, as it always is on emotionally charged teams, to let their emotions support their actions on the field, and not overwhelm them. Oh yeah, and the USC team they're playing is pretty good.
Offense– If Michigan had beaten Ohio State in Columbus, its very possible Mike Hart would have gained the critical mass of popular opinion and gone on to finish as high, or higher than Troy Smith in the final Heisman balloting. He didn't, but his 1500 yard, 14 TD season didn't get tons of national attention. With Michigan's trio of spectacular WRs (Manningham, Breaston and Arrington) making all the highlight reel grabs, Hart epitomized toughness, lugging the little brown ball 301 times for an even 5 yards a pop. The Wolverines' dependence on a robust running performance is clear when looking at Chad Henne's numbers over the last three years; his yardage, TDs and INTs have all dropped every year as Michigan has grown into this year's elite outfit.
Defense – You don't put up numbers like the Wolverines D has without boasting extremely good LBs, and Michigan has three, LaMarr Woodley, Prescott Burgess and Dave Harris. The secondary didn't handle Ted Ginn too well, and although not many units do, it will be interesting to see if Dwayne Jarrett and the USC offense model their aerial attack after the one used by the Buckeyes. John David Booty hasn't seen a pass rush like this, and applying the heat will, as always, be of paramount importance.
USC Overview – They play in the Coliseum, they're the toast of Los Angeles, countless go on to NFL contracts every year, and they're accompanied on road trips by the gorgeous white-sweatered Song Girls, and yet…I just can't hate the Trojans. Under Pete Carroll, USC does everything great programs do; win close games, win big games, and win with class. And this year, they're winning with defense. Last year's much-maligned Trojan defensive eleven only gave up more than 24 once this season.
Offense – Don't get crazy at the highlight reel catches Jarrett and Smith make early in this Rose Bowl. The numbers to focus on are 86 and 55: USC's rushing output in its two losses. It doesn't matter how they do it, great playcalling, stretching the D, excellent blocking, Trojan success is directly tied to the young legs of CJ Gable and Chauncey Washington. Booty has to be considered a Heisman frontrunner for 2007, but his highest two yardage games of 2006 came in losses. If USC is running the ball well, even if the scoreboard doesn't reflect it early, they'll do well. Obviously, this is a tough task against the Michigan front 7.
Defense – You know you're dealing with a great coach when the keys to victory change due to team composition, but the stellar results remain the same. Lose two Heisman winners on offense? Oh well, we'll just trot out one of the best scoring defenses in the nation. The Pac-10 has plenty of wild offenses capable of scoring, and USC held all of them to 22 or below save Oregon State. Don't overlook the 14 point and 10 point performances at Arkansas and against Nebraska early on. Those were early season games, but the unit's proficiency on D is clear.
Prediction – It's really something how closely these teams align in overall stats. USC has 364 PF and 179 PA, Michigan has 362 and 175. Both teams finished with a loss to their rival and are disappointed, not thrilled, to be in the Rose Bowl. A late Mike Hart TD wins it for Michigan, and they finish the season ranked #2.
Michigan 21, USC 16
For Recreational Purposes Only: don't bet it
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