C-USA Title Game Preview

The Golden Hurricane are a touchdown-sized underdog to UCF in this weekend’s C-USA title tilt in Orlando. Can Paul Smith and Tulsa make this trip to Disney a happy one? Let’s take a good hard look at the opponent:

UCF (9-3, 7-1)

Offense: The Knights’ offensive attack, quite frankly, begins and ends with running back Kevin Smith. All told, the offense is 33^rd best in the nation and 4^th in C-USA at 425.67 yards per game. The rushing attack has rolled up an awesome 237 yards per outing, good for 10^th nationally and 2^nd in the league. Smith is the horse, leading the nation at 180 yards per game. Smith is a fantastic running back in almost every way; he’s productive, obviously, but he’s also durable, with 20 or more carries in 11 of 12 games this year, and he’s consistent, with 124 yards or more in the same 11 games. A telling stat is this: in UCF’s three losses, Smith has put up his 9^th, 10^th and 12^th biggest rushing outings of the year. If Tulsa holds him to 140 yards or less, it’ll win. Period.

Under center, senior Kyle Israel has been the Knights’ mostly primetime signal caller after splitting a few early snaps with Michael Greco. The passing offense is 98^th in the nation and worst in the C-USA, but some of the weakness is due to the huge emphasis on running the football. In efficiency, UCF ranks 49^th nationally, a serviceable number, and Israel has been just good enough to take the heat off Smith. Israel is in the top 40 nationally in QB rating, with one of the best outings coming against Tulsa in October, where he threw for 21-29 for 224 yards and a TD. He’s certainly been better later in the year, with at least one TD the last 6 games, but he’s also thrown a pick in each of the last 4. The UCF attack shapes up as a classic “gang up on Smith, and make Israel beat you.” He might, but that strategy is truly Tulsa’s only hope.

Rocky Ross leads UCF in most receiving categories, with 3.75 catches and 47.33 per game. Ross is probably the only receiver in the country with almost 600 yards on the year that hasn’t topped 100 in any single game this year. He’s not a guy that is going to go off for 12 catches and 150 yards, but he is Israel’s standby in the passing game. The reality is, because Smith is going to draw all Tulsa’s focus, Ross will get his catches. Can they come at times which don’t break the D’s backs? We’ll see.

The offensive line O’Leary has built is a good one, and not just at plowing turf for Smith to conquer. They’ve protected Israel to the tune of just 1.33 sacks allowed per game, good for 2^nd in the C-USA. However, they are vulnerable. UCF doesn’t throw much, but Tulsa has to be much more active on the defensive front than in the October meeting. Roy Roberts got Tulsa’s only sack in part one. If Tulsa has to bring blitzes to get pressure, the potential for Smith’s home run scampers goes up a ton.

Defense: UCF’s D is one of the more balanced outfits in the C-USA. Ranking 46^th in rushing D, 53^rd in total D and 65^th in scoring. They haven’t been great in the red zone, so Tulsa will have to convert on every chance they can.

The overall strength of the D is certainly against the pass, setting up a great matchup with Paul Smith and the Tulsa offense. UCF’s pass efficiency is 1^st in the C-USA. They’re only 5^th in yards allowed, but that’s because they’ve got the most wins in the league and are constantly in the lead. It starts up front, where UCF is tops in the league in sacks and 3^rd in tackles for loss.

Sophomore linebacker Bruce Miller is a breakout star in the league, with 6 solo sacks and 33 total tackles. Miller got to Paul Smith twice in Orlando, Part One for two big sacks, and somebody better put a hat on him, because he’s got 5 sacks in the last 6 games, and will be Smith’s public enemy number one when he drops back to pass. Senior DL Leger Douzable also has 5 solo sacks and 12 TFL. It seems like Douzable’s tackles are always back breakers, with 50 total loss yards on the 12 this year. He’s a big key to UCF’s D, setting opponents in 2^nd/3^rd and unconvertible longs.

In the secondary, Joe Burnett is the guy avoid, with a conference leading 6 INT. Burnett is yet another member of the UCF defense that is on fire lately, with 4 picks in the last three games. Burnett is a pretty decent punt returner, too, when he gets the chance, but his main function is as a pass-deterrent, and he’s pretty good at it. Elsewhere in the secondary, Sha’reff Rashad is kind of a feast or famine ‘backer. Yeah, he’s got the 4 picks, but he also struggles to cover receivers in certain situations and is forced to make a ton of solo tackles to compensate. Rashad, in my mind, is the guy to pick on in the UCF secondary.

Special Teams: While Burnett is decent on the punt returns, Curtis Francis is the home run hitter returning kickoffs for the Knights. At 9^th in the nation with a 29 yards per return average, he hasn’t gotten a ton of chances to return balls since taking one to the house against East Carolina. Nevertheless, if he’s on the field, he shouldn’t be kicked to. Michael Torres is one of the nation’s most accurate kickers, with 16 of 18 field goals and 45 of 46 extra points. He’s obviously not part of the defensive game plan, but if Tulsa finds their chances riding on a Torres miss, they’ll be disappointed.

Prediction: Tulsa’s up against it in this one, folks. Almost everything UCF does well plays in to beating the Golden Hurricane, and we’ve already seen it once in the 44-23 drubbing in October. No way this contest gets that out of hand, but I don’t think Tulsa can hold Smith to a buck fifty, and Paul Smith might struggle just enough with the UCF corners to make one too many mistakes. I hope I’m wrong, but the money’s on UCF: UCF 38, Tulsa 28.

ACC Title Game Preview

Here we go again. It’s VT and BC for all the ACC marbles. This is the rematch most, if not all, Tech fans wanted, and now they’ve got it. I would say ‘be careful what you wish for’, but it’s a bit too late for that. Here we go, Hokies. Saturday preview, ACC Championship style:

Boston College (10-2, 6-2 ACC)

Offense: The BC attack is still led by Matt Ryan, who is still a great college quarterback, but the bloom is off the rose to some degree since BC lost twice to start November. Once BC got a couple losses on its resume, people started to notice that Ryan’s efficiency numbers were still lingering in the mid 40s nationally. Right now, Ryan sits at 52^nd in the country, which is still startling low for a QB being talked up as such a high round draft choice. The myth that a QB should be judged by wins alone is one of the great fallacies of football analysis, and Ryan gets a pass for his shortcomings as long as BC wins. Nevertheless, all it took was 5 great minutes from Ryan and the offense to offset 55 great ones from the VA Tech defense to get a win in Blacksburg.

Rushing isn’t the focus of the BC attack, but even when it is, the Eagles haven’t been great. I find it hard to believe that Andre Callender’s 902 rushing yards rank him 4^th in the ACC, but it’s a fact, and Callender hasn’t been good at all down the stretch, gaining just 278 yards in the last 5 games. Where Callender, and the entire BC offense has been excellent is in finding RBs out of the backfield. The senior has 43 catches in just the last 6 games, for 438 yards. That’s big time performance out of the backfield. Big time.

Speaking of receiving, the attack obviously doesn’t stop with Callender. Junior Brandon Robinson caught 50 balls in the season’s first 11 games, for 14.4 yards per catch, but didn’t play in the finale against Miami and can’t be counted on this weekend either. Sophomore Ryan Gunnell was outstanding in his stead, catching 9 balls for 135 yards. Gunnell was surprisingly good all year, with 54 catches for 749 yards, but looked especially deadly filling in for Robinson. Junior TE Ryan Purvis has 50 catches for 521 yards. Senior WR Kevin Challenger has 40 catches for 500 yards. The scariest thing about this BC attack is not Matt Ryan. I repeat: it’s not Matt Ryan. The scariest thing is the massive allotment of capable receivers, and the fact that any can step up on any day.

Up front, BC probably has best offensive line in the league. Tops in the league in protecting its QB, the BC line gives up 1.50 sacks a game, and that’s a pretty good number considering how much the Eagles throw the football. Ryan isn’t winning any elusiveness contests either, so you’ve got to give this line credit. Fans of the hogmollies have to be licking their chops getting ready to watch the VT front 7 do battle with this line.

Defense: Brandon Ore had some nice success against the BC defense in Round One, rushing for 97 yards on 20 carries, and Sean Glennon wasn’t bad either, throwing for 149 yards on 15 of 25 passing. Of course, Tech only put up 10 points, but efficiency and yardage wasn’t a huge problem.

The BC rush D is tops in the ACC and 2^nd in the nation, giving up just 66 yards per game. There aren’t a ton of dynamic offenses on the BC schedule, but that’s a great number up front. Up front, LB Alex Albright has 8 solo sacks and senior DL Nick Larkin has 4 solo sacks. These guys aren’t just stout against the run, they’re beasts at rushing the passer, and can hurt you in any number of ways. Jolonn Dunbar and Mark Herzlich are the 2^nd and 3^rd top tacklers on the team, and both had double digit tackle numbers in Blacksburg. They must be stopped. Period. They must be stopped.

DB Jamie Silva has 254 career tackles and 11 picks, including 110 this year. Silva made 15 solo tackles against FSU, which probably meant he wasn’t covering receivers well enough. He’s not a top flight cover corner, but when he has a chance to make a tackle, he doesn’t miss often. BC’s overall pass numbers aren’t great, but they’re a bit misleading. When you’re almost always ahead, teams throw on you. However, this is a secondary that ranks 106^th in the nation in pass defense, a brutal number especially in a league lacking many truly top-flight QBs. In fact, the best QB in the league plays on their own team. VT has to win this game through the air.

Special Teams: The biggest special teams play of the year in perhaps the entire ACC came in Round One when BC recovered an onside kick and went on to win the game. Kicker Steve Aponavicius hasn’t had a chance to kick a ton of field goals, but he’s been decent when given the chance, making 10 of 15. Not great, but decent. He probably won’t lose the game for BC. Punter Johnny Ayers booted for a 45 yard average on 9 punts in Blacksburg, and helped keep the Hokies far away from the goal.

Prediction: Virginia Tech gave away one game this year to BC. It won’t happen again. The Hokies have been wanting this rematch since October, and they’ve got it. VT is a 6 or so point favorite, and justifiably so. Matt Ryan hasn’t gotten any better since Blacksburg, and Sean Glennon has gotten much, much better. BC will dare Glennon to beat them, and guess what: he will. Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 17.