Some of the nation is done for the year, but not C-USA. All 12 conference teams are in action on the season’s final big weekend, and both divisions are still in question. What’s big, what’s blah, and what’s somewhere in between? Check it:
Game of the Week:
Tulsa at Rice - Win, and you’re in (Part 1). Tulsa needs a win over Todd Graham’s old Rice squad to advance to the conference title game. The ‘Cane deftly avoided a landmine at Army last week, and should come to Houston a bit more focused and sharp than they were in upstate New York. Still, these are the kind of games that tend to surprise folks, what with Rice’s resurgent play of late and the Graham factor to add a little awkwardness to the equation. I think Tulsa returns to its days of squeakin’ it out, getting a late Paul Smith TD to ice the win and the title. Tulsa 38, Rice 30.
UTEP at UCF - Win and you’re in (Part 2). With a victory over UTEP, the Knights won’t just advance to the title game, they’ll host it, with the league’s best overall mark at 9-3 and 7-1. The Knights are currently on a 5 game heater that started with a Week 8 triumph over Tulsa. UTEP has stunk up the joint since failing to capitalize on a fortuitous midseason homestand, but I’ve gotta think the Miners have one big outing left in them. IF UTEP comes out with a chip on its shoulder, this one stays close. That’s a big IF, but I don’t think UCF ices it until late, late in the fourth. UCF 41, UTEP 30.
Best of the Rest:
Tulane at E. Carolina - The Pirates are still shaking their heads over the Marshall loss, which will haunt the bunch well in to the offseason. Still, if ECU gets to 7-5 with a win over Tulane, they’ll be bowling. ECU is one of the best equipped Ds in the league to stop yardage machine Matt Forte, and nobody takes care of the ball better than the Pirates, who lead the league in turnover margin with a whopping +1.27 per game. Forte gets 150, but ECU gets the win and the postseason ticket. ECU 38, Tulane 20.
Ho Hum:
Arkansas State at Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are one of three key C-USA teams sitting on 6-5 and needing a win to really cement the bowl hopes. The Indians are a scrappy Sun Belt squad that caused big problems for good teams early (lost by 8 to Texas, beat Memphis), so So. Miss knows they’re dangerous. Still, the gut says that the Eagles are significantly better and have too much to play for following a topsy turvy regular season. Show me another team that has lost to Rice but beaten ECU. So. Miss 38, Arkansas State 29.
SMU at Memphis - The Tigers are rolling, with four wins in their last five, and only the triumph over UAB not coming down to the wire. Now, they get SMU, who hasn’t won sine September, trying to send off coach Phil Bennett in atypical fashion: with a win. Martin Hankins might be the second half MVP of the C-USA, and he should be in line for another big game here. Still, beware: SMU has a ton of close losses, and the Tigers have a ton of close wins. Eventually, the ball has to bounce the other way. Memphis 34, SMU 30.
Booooooring:
UAB at Marshall - OK, this game probably won’t BE boring, but the implications are. UAB is playing for...uh, pride? The term is loosely defined when applied to a UAB squad that hasn’t been within two TDs in any of its losses since September. The Blazers are trying to claw their way out of last, but no visiting team has won in Huntington since Southern Miss on October 21st. When you look at this UAB squad, do you see “trend buster”? Didn’t think so. Marshall 40, UAB 16.
Texas Southern at Houston - The Cougars will put on a good show in whatever bowl they end up in, assuming they take care of business against Texas Southern this weekend. It shouldn’t be a problem, although it may take until a bowl game for the Cougs to get over the humiliation at Tulsa. I don’t know alot about Texas Southern, but I know this: this is a 0-10 FCS team playing on the road against a relative in-state power. They’ll play with heart, but very little skill. Houston 48, Texas Southern 9.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Monday, November 19, 2007
Preview: Virginia Tech at Virginia
This is it. In-state ACC rivals that took last spring’s basketball crown down to the wire are headed to the finish line neck and neck in football as well. No hype necessary. Who wins the Commonwealth and the division in 2007? Let’s get to it:
Virginia (9-2, 6-1 ACC)
Offense: The Cavs haven’t been very good on offense this year. Their rushing attack ranks 88th nationally, the passing attack is 73rd. On total yards, they rank 99th. Scoring, 80th. However, that being said, the ACC has been a league dominated by defense. Even the 99th ranked total yardage D is only 8th out of 12 in the league, not bad considering there are only 20 worse teams in all of FBS, and 4 of them happen to be in the ACC.
QB Jameel Sewell ranks 5th in the league in total offense and is one of the big reasons the Cavs have been able to squeak out 5 wins by 2 points or less. Sewell has made some big throws down the stretch to put UVA in positions to kick late FGs or run clock at crucial moments. In the two recent games where his arm hasn’t been the story, his legs have been. Sewell ran for 64 yards against Pitt and 66 against UCONN, meaning he’s put up 200 yards of total offense for 7 straight games, dating back to September 22. You can’t buy that kind of consistency at QB, and Sewell deserves serious consideration for ACC MVP - not best player, but most valuable player.
The running game isn’t great, but sophomore back Mikell Simpson has come on in recent weeks. After gaining negative -9 yards in the Cavs’ first 7 games, Simpson has come on in full time duty for 328 yards in the last 4 games, giving UVA an efficient counterpunch to Sewell’s passing. Simpson hasn’t had a big game against a top-flight D of VA Tech’s caliber, so this test should be interesting. Keith Payne hasn’t seen much playing time since Simpson started to heat up, but when he goes, the freshman can gain some yards as well; 69 against Maryland and 70 vs. MTSU. Sewell gets a few carries as well, averaging about 20 yards a game rushing, a decent number considering how harmful the 2.07 sacks per game surrendered by the Cavs hurt his rushing numbers.
As for the rest of the offense, UVA does a nice job of distribution, getting 3 catches per game from three different receivers. Simpson hasn’t been consistent throughout the year, but his astounding 13-catch, 152 yard performance against Maryland has him at the top of the catch list. Jonathan Stupar, a senior TE, has been a rock for Sewell, catching 2 or more passes in every game but one all year. Stupar is one of the best safety valves you’ll see, and look for him to have a huge game as Sewell will likely have to throw a lot of dump passes in the face of VA Tech’s pass rush.
The offensive line has been pretty ho hum, giving up 2.09 sacks a game, 5th in the league. Sewell does have some scramble ability, so that’s not a great number. Like every unit on the squad, this bunch has stepped it up in the fourth quarter. They won’t wear down - VA Tech has to bring heat for 60 minutes.
Defense: Overall, the D has been the strength of the Cavs, by far. 17.45 points allowe per game is good for 10th nationally, and second in the ACC to only your Hokies. The D is also 18th in yards, and the squad as a whole is 39th in turnover margin. You’d be hard pressed to find an overall unit as balanced as UVA. The Cavs are 23rd nationally against the pass and 18th against the run. More than anything, this may be a function of how many close games UVA has been in, so teams rarely go in to strictly run or pass modes.
The front seven is pretty darn good, ranking 13th nationally in sacks, and that all starts with Chris Long, son of legendary linebacker Howie Long. Long is a ferocious talent at DL, with 12 sacks on the year, good for an ACC-leading, 5th national average of 1.09 per game. Unlike some other big sack guys, Long isn’t just a sack artist, either. He has 69 tackles, 19 of which have come in opponents’ backfields. Stop Long, move the ball. It’s that simple.
Long isn’t the only big skill player in the front seven, though. Junior LB Clint Sintim has 67 tackles on the year and 5 solo sacks. Sintim is hard to erase from the the game plan, with 7 or more tackles in each of the last three games. Junior LB Jon Copper is UVA’s leading tackler, with 92 stops, good for 11th in the ACC. Copper has hit the 7 tackle mark in every single game this year, an astounding comment on the junior’s commitment and consistency. He’s also come from the LB spot to get 10 TFL, 3 sacks and 2 picks, and is easily the squad’s most versatile playmaker.
Special Teams: Senior Chris Gould doesn’t have a ton of FGs (1.36 per game, 8th in the league), but he does have at least one in 10 of the 11 games and has hit big kicks in the clutch to help UVA get the close ones. On the year, he’s 15 of 19, a pretty doggone solid number, and if he has a chance to win this game in the final minute, VA Tech is in trouble. Punter Ryan Weigand is outstanding, averaging 45.86 per kick, 4th nationally and best in the league. His giant foot has been a key to UVA’s success in the field position, defensive battles of the ACC.
Prediction: It all comes down to this. In my opinion, if VA Tech wins this game, they’re division champs and probably headed to the title game as a favorite. If they win, this year has a chance to be a success, with 11 and even 12 wins a possibility. If the Hokies lose, however, the season is a disappointment, and will be marked by a “so close” memory.
There are times in life when two smart people can look at the same data and draw vastly different conclusions. It is certainly possible to look at UVA’s season and see a team full of clutch players, to see a team with a huge heart, to see a team that “knows how to win close ones”. And that’s probably all true, to some degree.
But, frankly, I see an average team that has gotten very good bounce, good break, and borderline call possible down the stretch, and is truly 6 points away from not being bowl eligible. VA Tech is 3.5 point favorites, and will cover the spread and then some. VA Tech 30, Virginia 17.
Virginia (9-2, 6-1 ACC)
Offense: The Cavs haven’t been very good on offense this year. Their rushing attack ranks 88th nationally, the passing attack is 73rd. On total yards, they rank 99th. Scoring, 80th. However, that being said, the ACC has been a league dominated by defense. Even the 99th ranked total yardage D is only 8th out of 12 in the league, not bad considering there are only 20 worse teams in all of FBS, and 4 of them happen to be in the ACC.
QB Jameel Sewell ranks 5th in the league in total offense and is one of the big reasons the Cavs have been able to squeak out 5 wins by 2 points or less. Sewell has made some big throws down the stretch to put UVA in positions to kick late FGs or run clock at crucial moments. In the two recent games where his arm hasn’t been the story, his legs have been. Sewell ran for 64 yards against Pitt and 66 against UCONN, meaning he’s put up 200 yards of total offense for 7 straight games, dating back to September 22. You can’t buy that kind of consistency at QB, and Sewell deserves serious consideration for ACC MVP - not best player, but most valuable player.
The running game isn’t great, but sophomore back Mikell Simpson has come on in recent weeks. After gaining negative -9 yards in the Cavs’ first 7 games, Simpson has come on in full time duty for 328 yards in the last 4 games, giving UVA an efficient counterpunch to Sewell’s passing. Simpson hasn’t had a big game against a top-flight D of VA Tech’s caliber, so this test should be interesting. Keith Payne hasn’t seen much playing time since Simpson started to heat up, but when he goes, the freshman can gain some yards as well; 69 against Maryland and 70 vs. MTSU. Sewell gets a few carries as well, averaging about 20 yards a game rushing, a decent number considering how harmful the 2.07 sacks per game surrendered by the Cavs hurt his rushing numbers.
As for the rest of the offense, UVA does a nice job of distribution, getting 3 catches per game from three different receivers. Simpson hasn’t been consistent throughout the year, but his astounding 13-catch, 152 yard performance against Maryland has him at the top of the catch list. Jonathan Stupar, a senior TE, has been a rock for Sewell, catching 2 or more passes in every game but one all year. Stupar is one of the best safety valves you’ll see, and look for him to have a huge game as Sewell will likely have to throw a lot of dump passes in the face of VA Tech’s pass rush.
The offensive line has been pretty ho hum, giving up 2.09 sacks a game, 5th in the league. Sewell does have some scramble ability, so that’s not a great number. Like every unit on the squad, this bunch has stepped it up in the fourth quarter. They won’t wear down - VA Tech has to bring heat for 60 minutes.
Defense: Overall, the D has been the strength of the Cavs, by far. 17.45 points allowe per game is good for 10th nationally, and second in the ACC to only your Hokies. The D is also 18th in yards, and the squad as a whole is 39th in turnover margin. You’d be hard pressed to find an overall unit as balanced as UVA. The Cavs are 23rd nationally against the pass and 18th against the run. More than anything, this may be a function of how many close games UVA has been in, so teams rarely go in to strictly run or pass modes.
The front seven is pretty darn good, ranking 13th nationally in sacks, and that all starts with Chris Long, son of legendary linebacker Howie Long. Long is a ferocious talent at DL, with 12 sacks on the year, good for an ACC-leading, 5th national average of 1.09 per game. Unlike some other big sack guys, Long isn’t just a sack artist, either. He has 69 tackles, 19 of which have come in opponents’ backfields. Stop Long, move the ball. It’s that simple.
Long isn’t the only big skill player in the front seven, though. Junior LB Clint Sintim has 67 tackles on the year and 5 solo sacks. Sintim is hard to erase from the the game plan, with 7 or more tackles in each of the last three games. Junior LB Jon Copper is UVA’s leading tackler, with 92 stops, good for 11th in the ACC. Copper has hit the 7 tackle mark in every single game this year, an astounding comment on the junior’s commitment and consistency. He’s also come from the LB spot to get 10 TFL, 3 sacks and 2 picks, and is easily the squad’s most versatile playmaker.
Special Teams: Senior Chris Gould doesn’t have a ton of FGs (1.36 per game, 8th in the league), but he does have at least one in 10 of the 11 games and has hit big kicks in the clutch to help UVA get the close ones. On the year, he’s 15 of 19, a pretty doggone solid number, and if he has a chance to win this game in the final minute, VA Tech is in trouble. Punter Ryan Weigand is outstanding, averaging 45.86 per kick, 4th nationally and best in the league. His giant foot has been a key to UVA’s success in the field position, defensive battles of the ACC.
Prediction: It all comes down to this. In my opinion, if VA Tech wins this game, they’re division champs and probably headed to the title game as a favorite. If they win, this year has a chance to be a success, with 11 and even 12 wins a possibility. If the Hokies lose, however, the season is a disappointment, and will be marked by a “so close” memory.
There are times in life when two smart people can look at the same data and draw vastly different conclusions. It is certainly possible to look at UVA’s season and see a team full of clutch players, to see a team with a huge heart, to see a team that “knows how to win close ones”. And that’s probably all true, to some degree.
But, frankly, I see an average team that has gotten very good bounce, good break, and borderline call possible down the stretch, and is truly 6 points away from not being bowl eligible. VA Tech is 3.5 point favorites, and will cover the spread and then some. VA Tech 30, Virginia 17.
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