Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Virginia Tech 2007 Season Analysis, Part 2

(This article originally appears on www.hokiehaven.com.)

Earlier this week, we looked at the first half of Virginia Tech's 2007 football schedule. While there were tough opponents before the bye with trips to LSU and Clemson. The season doesn't get any easier after the bye. In this edition, Hokiehaven.com senior writer Brian Golden takes a look at the second half of the year to see what we can expect.

Boston College (10-3, 5-3 ACC)

Biggest Win: Virginia Tech, 22-3
Worst Loss: at NC State, 17-15


Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan will be the class of ACC quarterbacks next year, coming off a 2,700 yard, 15 touchdown campaign in 2006. When Ryan threw the same amount of touchodwns and interceptions, or more interceptions than touchdowns, Boston College was bad (3-4). When he threw more touchdowns than interceptions, they were very good (7-0). Like so many ACC teams, the Eagles feature running back by committee, with Andre Callender (127 carries for 567 yards) and L.V. Whitworth (174 carries for 790 yards) likely to split carries again. The tandem has been featured in the Boston College backfield since 2004, and between them, neither has had a season below 600 yards rushing. Exactly what that shared load will look like is yet to be determined, with former Packers offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski taking the reins from Tom O'Brien.

The Eagles will still be a talented team in 2007, but there's something about this game that spells ambush for me. Tech will be rested from a 12 day lay off, with a renewed focus on the second, tougher part of the year, and Blacksburg promises to rock for a Thursday battle, the sort of which the Hokies have dominated over the last several years. Add the revenge factor for Virginia Tech's worst loss of the 2006 campaign, and I think this one could be ugly.

Prediction: Tech by 20


At Georgia Tech (9-5, 7-1 ACC)

Biggest Win: at Virginia Tech, 38-27
Worst Loss: at Georgia, 15-12


In Atlanta, the theme for 2007 is: out with one Johnson, in with another. With Calvin Johnson likely a top-five draft pick, junior wide receiver James Johnson will look to fill the void, and, if the quarterback play improves, may put up numbers that get within shouting distance of the elder Johnson's 1,200 yard performance last season. Reggie Ball was a brutally mediocre quarterback, bad enough that CollegeFootballNews asked the question last month: is he the worst four-year starter ever? Taylor Bennett had a huge Gator Bowl against West Virginia, and the Jackets are going to be much better under his quarterbacking. Tashard Choice is the real baller in the Jacket backfield, looking to build on a 1,400 yard campaign in 2006 that included 105 yards and two TDs against the Hokies. With Calvin Johnson snaring passes and the Reggie Ball saga, Georgia Tech's defense was a bit overlooked in 2006, holding opponents to 15 points per game, including stuffing four teams to just seven or below.

Prediction: Hokies by 6


Florida State (7-6, 3-5 ACC)

Biggest Win: UCLA, 44-27
Worst Loss: at NC State, 24-20


Who would have guessed before 2006 that the 'Noles best victory before bowl season would come over Western Michigan? Florida State didn't beat a good team from September and December, crippled by an inept running game, bad morale, and some close losses. How did a running game with Lorenzo Booker struggle THAT much? Your guess is as good as mine. FSU will be better in 2007, almost because they can't really get worse. The offense will have plenty of talent and tools, including guidance from ex-LSU offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher. Florida State has talent at the skills, like they always do, and the challenge will be instilling a team concept and having the group character to win close games. Florida State is the only ACC team the Hokies haven't played in the regular season since joining the conference, so the matchup has a lot of intrigue for that reason as well. You always have to be wary of the proud programs coming off a disappointing season; FSU built some momentum against UCLA in the bowl game, and for some reason I have a feeling this will be one of those head-scratching Hokie losses.

Prediction: 'Noles by 7


Miami (7-6, 3-5 ACC)

Biggest Win: BC, 17-14
Worst Loss: at Virginia, 17-7


It wasn't the way Miami lost in 2006 that showed just how far this team has fallen, it was the way the Hurricanes won. The season featured the ugly throwdown against Florida International, the dismissal of a former-player-turned-announcer who glorified the incident as it took place, and some ugly celebrating after narrowly beating Nevada in a fourth-tier bowl game. When it came time to replace coach Larry Coker, the program clearly needed a major change of scenery, but instead hired a Hurricane lifer, defensive coordinator Randy Shannon. The Hokies and 'Canes have what is truly one of the greatest non-traditional rivalries in college football right now, with both teams often rated highly, and the contests matching different cultures as much as different teams. Some contributors are back on the Canes this year; quarterbacks Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman, running back Javarris James, and others, but the question isn't about talent; the issue at the Orange Bowl is setting a new tone in the Hurricane program. I don't think it happens, and I think Virginia Tech clinches the ACC Coastal with a pounding of the once-mighty 'Canes.

Prediction: Hokies by 10


At Virginia (5-7, 4-4 ACC)
Biggest Win: Miami 17-7
Worst Loss: at Pittsburgh 38-13
at Florida State 33-0


Tech has owned the Cavaliers lately, taking three straight from their in-state rival since a 2003 season-ending loss. This late-season contest looks a bit dangerous for the Hokies, just because I think they'll already have the Coastal locked up by then, and Cavalier sophomore quarterback Jameel Sewell may be well on his way to coming in to his own by then. The offense positively stunk in 2006, going for only 257 yards and 15 points per game, but the defense was actually quite competitive, holding teams to 0, 7, 7 and 17 in four of the last five games. Running back Jason Snelling was about the only thing the Cav offense had going for it in 2006, and without him, everything will rest on the creativity of Sewell. The Hokies might let down for a couple quarters, but should win in the end.

Prediction: Hokies by 16


Season Prediction: 10-2, 7-1 ACC, 1st place ACC Coastal

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