BCS Championship
Ohio State (12-0) vs. Florida (12-1)
Jan. 8, 7:00 p.m. CST
Glendale (Ariz.)
OHIO STATE Overview: Not a lot can be said around these parts that everyone hasn't read or heard about this Ohio State team. The Buckeyes are absolutely loaded with talent on both the lines and at every skill position. They've only been challenged once all year, in this year's "Game of the Century," and they won it, 42-39. Illinois gave OSU their second best matchup of the year, but even that game was 17-0 midway through the 4th quarter. They score, they defend, they excite. They're really, really good.
Offense: Troy Smith won the Heisman by a gargantuan margin, the largest in history by players who never fled from police in a White Bronco. Smith is a surgeon at quarterback; his passes are crisp and incisive, his decisions precise and, almost always, correct. Antonio Pittman appeared to be fading in November, but saved his best for last with a 139-yard effort against the Wolverines. The junior from Akron doesn't need to get 100 yards against the Gators; he probably won't. He won't be called on to win this game. What he must do for the Buckeyes to be consistent on offense is log 4-5 yards a rush. If the Gators can stop Pittman cold, the nasty Florida front 7 will be able to pin its ears back and get after Troy Smith. If the Heisman winner has time, Ohio State will win by 10-14. If he doesn't, the game will be very, very close.
Defense: This one is kind of a mystery, and not because the Buckeyes don't have some all-world players here, because they do. They just haven't faced an offense designed like Florida's Urbanball scheme, so its hard to say exactly how they'll respond. If they can learn quickly, it shouldn't be a big surprise; six players from last year's OSU defense are now in the NFL. The job Tressel and Co. have done with the Bucks D this year pretty much defines the "reload not rebuild" mentality. Malcolm Jenkins will probably draw Dallas Baker whenever man coverage is appropriate, and that matchup is a huge key in the contest. If Jenkins contains Baker, it could be like a house of cards, with Leak losing his best option and making bad decisions to compensate.
FLORIDA overview
Offense: Can you remember a more polarizing player in recent college football history than Florida's Chris Leak?
When his name comes up, you don't get many shoulder shrugs; almost everyone passionately believes that he has held the Gators back for years, or that he's gotten the most awful, horrible, raw deal since the Native Americans that sold Jefferson the Louisiana Purchase for a couple cents an acre. Any QB that leads their team this far is doing something right, but his 13 INT this season are frighteningly high. In fact, only twice against a D-1 opponent this season did Leak NOT throw a pick. Its not really if, but when he makes a mistake. What will be the stakes and the field position at that point?
Deshawn Wynn's performance will go a long way toward answering that question. Florida's senior RB has to have the best game of his season, period. He's only been over 65 yards once since September 23, and the Gators just have to do better than that at moving the chains on the ground. Hopefully, Meyer and his offensive gurus have plotted some wrinkles over the last month.
Defense: This Florida defense is really the epitome of the great SEC defenses that win championships in America's premier football conference. None of the studs have really achieved star status, but when they're playing in Pro Bowls in five years, you'll check their bio and say to yourself: "Wow, I didn't know he went to Florida!" The loss of Marcus Thomas to disciplinary reasons hasn't killed the Gators yet, because Brandon Siler and Jarvis Moss have picked up the slack, leading a D that gave up only 13 points per game this year. The secondary hasn't been great, but if anyone in the back 4 can come up with even one game changing play, it has to be considered a big victory for Florida. As I said above, the pass rush is key. If Moss and Derrick Harvey are getting to Smith, this game is a coinflip. If Smith has time, he won't make mistakes, and Ohio State will win fairly easily.
Prediction: On paper, its hard to figure out how Florida is the second ranked team in the country. Their defense is very good, but the offense really isn't special. They should have lost to South Carolina and Tennessee, could have lost at Georgia and Vanderbilt, and took advantage of some unconscionable Arkansas miscues to win the SEC Title Game.
They're still a very good football team, but I'll go on record as saying the Gators are overrated at #2 and are going to need a Herculean effort from their defense and at least one big Ohio State miscue to win the game. The only thing that could work in their favor, and its almost immeasureable, is if OSU's long layoff since the Michigan game has the Buckeyes a little rusty.
It's a long shot to occur with Tressel at the helm, but if OSU looks stiff out of the gate and the Gators take an early lead, Smith won't have Pittman's runs to help him as much, and could fall victim to pass pressure.
Florida will win a national championship in 2007, but it will be in basketball, not football. After an impressive streak of college football classic games on big stages (OSU vs. Michigan, USC vs. Texas, Boise State vs. Oklahoma), Ohio State makes this one a snoozer by comparison, and brings the national title back to the Big Ten.
Ohio State 27, Florida 13.
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