Virginia Tech 2007 Season Analysis, Part 1

(This article originally appeared on www.hokiehaven.com.)

The 2007 ACC football schedule was released last week and Virginia Tech will have a tough slate of opponents ahead of them this upcoming season. Hokiehaven.com senior writer Brian Golden takes a long hard look at the entire year and what to expect from the Hokies in 2007. In this edition, he'll look at the first half of the season from the East Carolina game until the bye.

September 1st vs. East Carolina (7-6, 5-3 in Conference-USA in 2006)

Biggest Win: at Southern Miss, 20-17
Worst Loss: at UAB, 17-12

The Pirates weren't great in 2006, but they managed to beat two ACC teams, Virginia and NC State, on their way to a 7-5 finish that landed them in the inaugural PapaJohns.com Bowl. Despite those two wins, a clutch road win over division rival Southern Miss was bigger, anchoring a four-game winning streak, and getting East Carolina the momentum needed to secure a bowl bid. Well coached but not that talented, ECU finished 5-3 in a conference that looked weak all year, and was humbled by a 1-4 bowl performance. A team that won 7 games last season and earned an extra month of bowl practice won't be the easiest task in the world, but the Pirates were ravaged by graduation on the offensive of the ball, and if the Hokies can shake off the cobwebs early on, this one shouldn't be close. When East Carolina comes to Blacksburg, they'll be breaking in a new qwarterback to replace James Pinkney, a four-year player that threw for over 8,000 yards and 46 TDs during his time under center. The new signal caller might be sophomore Robert Kass, who looked stable against South Florida in the bowl game. The Pirates didn't have much of a running game in 2006, but leading rusher Brandon Fractious is gone as well, leaving Chris Johnson and Dominique Lindsay the likely candidates to carry the load. Five Pirates caught at least 22 passes for 350 yards last year, but 3 are gone and the effectiveness of returners Phillip Henry and Steven Rogers will be very questionable until Pinkney's replacement is solid.

Prediction: Hokies by 24


September 8th at LSU (11-2, 6-2 in the SEC)

Biggest Win: at Arkansas, 31-26
Worst Loss: does at Auburn or at Florida count?

Tech has played LSU only once before, a 26-8 domination in Blacksburg in 2002. The Hokies return the trip with a road hike to Baton Rouge in what should be one of the best non-conference games of the year in all of college football. The Bayou Bengals are consistently one of the most athletically skilled units in college football, featuring lethal skill players on offense, bruising line play, and prototypically fast SEC defenses. The 2006 LSU team flew slightly under the radar for much of the year, slowly gaining steam towards a top-5 finish, with the two blemishes on an 11-2 record on the road at Auburn and Florida. Next year, LSU will return a very stout defense, but the big question will be under center where 6-foot-6, 260-pound quarterback JaMarcus Russell will be taking his show to the NFL. Questions remain for his potential replacement in quarterback Ryan Perrilloux, but Matt Flynn is the likely candidate at this time. Meanwhile, at running back Keiland Williams will provide plenty of speed to keep the offense rolling.

Prediction: LSU by 7


September 15th vs. Ohio (9-5, 7-1 in the MAC)

Biggest Win: Western Michigan, 27-20
Worst Loss: at Bowling Green, 21-9

Former Nebraska coach Frank Solich has breathed new life into the Bobcat program, leading Ohio to a MAC Championship appearance and the GMAC Bowl in 2006. After a 2-3 start that featured losses at Rutgers and Missouri, the Bobcats ripped off seven straight MAC wins on their way to an East Division title. Ohio didn't rack up a lot of yards (280 per game), but was balanced (155 passing, 125 rushing). In all five losses, Ohio scores 10 points or less. However, during the seven-game winning streak, only one opponent scored more than 20. Almost all the rushing yards were by Kalvin McRae, who returns for a senior season after going for 1100 yards-plus two straight years. The Bobcats dominated the MAC, but were nice kitties on the road last year, and Tech should be able to force a new quarterback into plenty of mistakes.

Prediction: Tech by 28


September 22nd vs. William & Mary (3-8, 1-7 in the Atlantic-10)

Biggest Win: at Towson, 29-28
Worst Loss: Hofstra, 16-14

The Pride come to Blacksburg to resume a series that cutoff in 1985, with the Hokies winning the last nine by a combined 312-95. William & Mary is a I-AA team, and a bad one at that, going just 1-7 in the Atlantic 10 last year. Quarterback Mike Potts has been solid since replacing Walter Payton award's Lang Campbell, a recent pick-up of the NFL's Cleveland Browns. Potts threw for 1,500 yards last season, and will probably be the Pride's best offensive option all year. William & Mary's ground game will be dead on arrival, however, and the defense gave up at least 28 points to their final five opponents of 2006. This is the only non-conference game Virginia Tech has against a non-bowl team, and the starters won't be playing in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: Hokies by 38


September 29th North Carolina (3-9, 2-6 in the ACC)

Biggest Win: NC State, 23-9
Worst Loss: Virginia, 23-0

How exactly did North Carolina ascend to a brief top-10 ranking five years ago? The Heels have been positively awful since, annually battling with Duke for 11th place in the ACC. Butch Davis is the new sheriff in Chapel Hill, making it really difficult to predict not only the success of the 2007 Heels, but also the composition. Will Joe Dailey (1316 yards, 7 TD, 10 INT) be back at the helm, particularly with true freshman Mike Paulus coming in? Dailey was run off once already by a new coach (Nebraska's Bill Callahan), and you have to feel for him if it happens again. The most promising talent at UNC is probably sophomore receiver Hakeem Nicks (39 catches, 660 yards). Nicks has the size to be a very good ACC receiver in two years, but someone will have to be running the ball to draw a bit of focus from stronger, faster opposing defenses. Davis is a tough coach, and the onus has got to be on shoring up a defense that gave up a whopping 30.5 points per game in 2006. They will get better in time, because they really have to, but it won't be in 2007.

Prediction: Tech by 24


October 6th at Clemson (8-5, 5-3 in the ACC)

Biggest Win: at Wake Forest, 27-17
Worst Loss: vs. Kentucky, 28-20

Circle this one on your calendar as the biggest game of the 2007 Virginia Tech season. Nestled between two relatively easy games on one side, and another patsy and the bye week on the other, this is the most crucial game of the year for the Hokies. LSU is better, but that game is a preparation for the test that is Clemson. Clemson's 2007 team will look like a slightly worse version of LSU's. Both teams at the Tigers that call their places Death Valley, and create a big-time atmosphere on their home field. Additionally, if 2007 is another year of great expectations and losing big games, Tommy Bowden may finally find the hot seat too fiery to bear.

Tech has dominated the recent series, beating the Tigers four out of four since 1998, by a combined 133-45. However, this Clemson team is better than those in the late 90s, and this one won't be so easy. Tech ambushed the Tigers in Blacksburg last year, but that game couldn't have come at a worse time for Clemson, a big road trip just five days after an emotional night game against Georgia Tech. Young backfield studs James Davis and C.J. Spiller both went for 900 yards and at least 5.8 yards per carry last season, and should be even tougher to contain in 2007. Maligned quarterback Will Proctor is gone, and no returning quarterbacks have attempted more than 20 passes in a season. Beamerball is 11-1 on the road in the ACC, and its going to take a top-notch effort to come away with a win. This one could go either way.

Prediction: Tech by 2


October 13th at Duke (0-12, 0-8 in the ACC)

Biggest Win: um…
Worst Loss: Richmond, 13-0

Ah, Duke. Tech hasn't given up a point to Duke since 2004, winning twice in a row, by a combined 81-0. Duke football is the antithesis of Duke basketball: they don't get the calls, they don't get pimped on ESPN, their coach doesn't do American Express commercials. Duke returns their top passer, both top runners, and both top receivers, so there's almost no way they won't improve on their 14.9 points per game performance of 2006. Somehow, Duke was up on Wake last September, until surrendering a late TD to lose by a point. The Devils actually put up a few points against decent opponents in 2006, scoring 24 against FSU, 21 against Georgia Tech and 28 at Vanderbilt. This could be the year Duke finally scores on Virginia Tech.

Prediction: Hokies by 31