Orange Bowl Preview

FEDEX ORANGE BOWL – Jan. 3rd, 8:00 EST

Virginia Tech vs. Kansas –

10-2, and champions of the ACC: just like I predicted to start the year. One thing I never would have predicted would be that the Hokies would get the Kansas Jayhawks, third place team in the Big 12, as a reward for their conference championship. Surely the ACC champs ought to beat the Big 12’s third best, right? Let’s check it out:

Kansas (11-1, 7-1 Big 12)

Offense: The Jayhawks roared out of the gates in September on the strength of an offense that scored so quickly, and so often, that it immediately forced opponents to alter their game plans just to keep up. KU dropped an average of 53.5 ppg on its first four opponents and then, after a 30-point ‘off-week’ against K-State, dropped another 58 on Baylor. When KU met Mizzou in Kansas City on Thanksgiving weekend, QBs Todd Reesing and Chase Daniel were at a crossroads. The two had put up similar numbers, with similar records and similar accompanying shock around their success. Whichever QB had the better game was going to be a Heisman finalist, and Daniel dominated the game, earning his ticket to New York. But Reesing’s year was equally spectacular. The junior went 256-409 this year, with an unbelievable 32:6 TD:INT ratio. Three of the picks came against K-State, and other than that, the numbers are even gaudier, 29:3. Will Reesing be an NFL QB? Heck no, but he’s been in a zone this year, reaching rare air with his accuracy and decision making. Reesing and KU haven’t been tested like they will be against VA Tech, and rattling Reesing is the best way to ruin KU’s offense. In the ‘Hawks’ two closest calls of the year, a tight win at K-State and the Mizzou loss, Reesing threw 5 of his 6 picks.

The rushing game was good for 197 ypg, 27^th nationally, and Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp are both solid backs, top ten in the Big 12. McAnderson, the senior, topped the century mark 5 times, with a mighty three game stretch of 434 yards and 8 TDs against A&M, Nebraska and Oklahoma State. Sharp, the sophomore, was the counter punch, going for 788 yards and 7 scores on the year; but Sharp was absent against Kansas, a fact that has been lost on the post-game commentary of that contest.

Junior WR Dexton Fields had a breakout year, with 56 catches for 733 yards and 6 scores. Unlike Reesing, Fields was at his best in the Jayhawks’ closest battles, catching a combined 14 balls for 194 yards against K-State and Mizzou. Marcus Henry is the home run threat in the passing game, turning 52 catches in to 994 yards and 9 scores. Henry is a big-time, grand slam kind of guy, and he benefits from Fields’ success over the middle. Fields will try to draw the safeties in, and Henry will find the deep seams.

KU’s offensive line was actually fairly mediocre this year, considering how good the offense was. The line was 47^th in the nation in sacks surrendered. I haven’t heard yet officially if Anthony Collins, the 310-lb. left tackle will play against the Hokies, but he’s probably the best offensive lineman. Collins dinged a leg against Iowa State, and he’s chiefly responsible for protecting Reesing’s backside. If Collins is out, the likelihood that Tech can create effective pressure on Reesing, and force the game-changing turnovers, goes way, way up. Center Ryan Cantrell will make the line calls in the no-huddle attack, and RT Cesar Rodriguez is KU’s only senior starting lineman.

Defense

Of all the reasons KU went 11-1 this year, a +1.58 turnover margin, tops in the entire nation, was the biggest. The Jayhawks were amazing at creating possession-changing plays and preventing them on the offensive end of the football. The defense deserves tons of credit for that, obviously, and the superstar of the KU defense is Aqib Talib. You’ve heard the name before, but remember it – I haven’t seen a lot of defensive players on Talib’s level when it comes to anticipation and vision. Talib only had 4 picks this year, and only one since October 6^th. He’s such a deadly pass picker, though, that he really won’t get much action, and Tech would be wise to throw away from him whenever possible. Talib also had 61 tackles and 8 receptions this year. He’s a great college football player, as good as KU has anywhere on the field.

The Jayhawks’ three leading tacklers are a trio of junior LBs that all finished in the top 14 in the Big 12 in dragging down opponents. Joe Mortensen, James Holt and Mike Rivera all nabbed 7+ tackles per outing, and comprise a linebacking corps that isn’t going to miss a lot of tackles, and is going to have the freedom to chase opposing backs all over the shop. Each of the backers is capable of taking over a game on the defensive end. In three of KU’s closest contests, against Mizzou, Colorado and Kansas State, Mortensen had 11+ tackles in each. And against the Buffaloes, in what has to be one of the toughest outings of any defensive player this year, Holt logged 12 solo tackles in a 19-14 slugfest. Running right at these guys probably isn’t the best strategy for the Hokies. I like a steady diet of counter and misdirection plays that capitalize on KU’s desire to pursue ball carriers with a vengeance.

KU’s weakness on defense is its front four, which finished 80^th nationally in sacks despite the fact that teams were passing against the Jayhawks constantly because of the huge leads they ran up. However, the defense was 4^th nationally in scoring allowed, and 14^th in yards, so even this d-line isn’t weak. Just vulnerable. Sophomore stud DL Maxwell Onyegbule was the sack leader, but only got one in Big 12 play. The real star of the line is James McClinton, a second-team All-American who made 11 TFL and 38 total tackles this year, and made himself a fixture in opposing backfields all day, every day. Stop McClinton, beat KU. It’s pretty simple. Caleb Blakesley and Russell Brorsen are decent parts of the machine, but McClinton will draw the double teams, and rightfully so.

Special Teams

Kicker Scott Webb probably never dreamed that when he came to KU, he’d score 114 points in a season, good for 2^nd in the Big 12. But that’s what he did in 2007, a tribute to KU’s dynamite offense and his accurate kicking leg. An interesting thing about Webb is that he doesn’t really scatter his misses; he’s either on or off. In two games this year, A&M and Mizzou, Webb went 2 for 7 on FGs. Over the other ten, he went 15 for 17. I’m not going to call the kid a head case, by any means, but Tech should know early if he has it or not. Kansas is awful in the punting game, absolutely awful. Kyle Tucker averaged less than 40 yards a boot this year, and the coverage was bad, too. 111^th in the country in net punting is an awful way to try to win football games. The seams will start to show against the Hokies, when KU has to punt a little more than it likes.

Prediction

The Jayhawks aren’t the dog a lot of folks on the eastern seaboard think they are. This is a team that was much more in it against Mizzou than a lot of people realized that didn’t watch the contest, and any time a team scores 43 or more points in 8 of 12 games, I’m going to give their offense some credit.

However, I like Tech’s 8^th ranked sack unit and 2^nd ranked scoring D to be able to do some things KU hasn’t seen, better than the Jayhawks expect. Pressure leads to Reesing errors, and as we’ve established, Reesing errors lead to KU struggles. Conversely, the one thing KU doesn’t do very well, rush the passer, is something teams have to do to beat Tech. Reesing, Fields and Talib will each make a couple plays that leave Hokie fans shaking their heads, but VA Tech will get a big special teams play and take control of the game in the third quarter, bringing the Orange Bowl trophy for a year’s residence in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech 27, Kansas 17.