Big Ten Preseason Magazine Analysis

(This article originally appeared on www.orangeandbluenews.com)

Before the gridiron battles of autumn, another war is waged on news stands across the county. Throughout the summer, in the dead period between spring and fall practice, annual College Football Preview magazines go public, competing with one another to see which can deliver the most accurate prognostication of the upcoming season.

As Illini fans digest this year’s editions, Orange and Blue News decided to examine five major annuals from the time period 2002-2006 to see which proved the most accurate in predicting the results of the Big Ten and your Fighting Illini.

We’re looking at five of the top college football journals in the country; Athlon, Lindy’s, Phil Steele, Street & Smith and The Sporting News. These five represent the most renowned and respected college football predictions each summer.

First of all, let’s start with the raw data. Here’s a chart of each team, with their average rating from the five magazines over the 2002-2006 time period:

(A quick note: When two teams tie for 3^rd, they are both given a 3.5 for their finish that year, as they shared the 3^rd and 4^th positions.)

Ohio State
Athlon 1.8
Lindy's 1.6
The Sporting News 1.2
Phil Steele 1.5
Street&Smith 2.6

Michigan
Athlon 1.6
Lindy's 1.4
The Sporting News 2.4
Phil Steele 1.9
Street&Smith 1.6

Iowa
Athlon 4.8
Lindy's 4.4
The Sporting News 5.6
Phil Steele 4.2
Street&Smith 4.2

Penn State
Athlon 6.6
Lindy's 4.8
The Sporting News 4.8
Phil Steele 5.1
Street&Smith 5.8

Purdue
Athlon 5.4
Lindy's 5.2
The Sporting News 4.2
Phil Steele 4.4
Street&Smith 6.2

Michigan State
Athlon 6.6
Lindy's 6.6
The Sporting News 7.4
Phil Steele 5.1
Street&Smith 5.8

Wisconsin
Athlon 4
Lindy's 5.2
The Sporting News 5.4
Phil Steele 5.7
Street&Smith 6.2

Minnesota
Athlon 7.2
Lindy's 5.2
The Sporting News 5.4
Phil Steele 5.7
Street&Smith 6.2

Northwestern
Athlon 9.4
Lindy's 9.2
The Sporting News 9.6
Phil Steele 9.1
Street&Smith 8.6

Illinois
Athlon 9
Lindy's 8.8
The Sporting News 9
Phil Steele 8
Street&Smith 9.2

Indiana
Athlon 10.4
Lindy's 11
The Sporting News 10.8
Phil Steele 11
Street&Smith 10.4

So, what do all these numbers add up to? By dividing a team’s average finish by their average predicted finish, each team gets a number score. A lower score makes a team traditionally underrated (higher finish than prediction), a higher score makes a team traditionally overrated. Let’s take a look at the Big Ten standings, from the most underrated to the most overrated, over the last 5 years.

UNDERRATED

1. Northwestern (2.18) – No respect for the Wildcats. Over the last five years, this has been the most underrated team in the conference, by a whopping margin. Across the board, underrated by more than 2 standings spots every single year, and it wasn’t just a one year wonder. The Wildcats were massively underrated in 2003, 2004 and 2005 and never overrated. This team hasn’t finished below their predicted finish since at least 2001.

2. Indiana (1.32) – It would be hard for a team that almost always gets picked last to be overrated, but there is something strange about the fact that most magazines always pick the Hoosiers for dead last, despite the fact that they haven’t finished there in any of the five years. Indiana shared 10^th place twice, but also has posted finishes of T9th, 10^th and T6th. Lindy’s and Phil Steele have picked them dead 11^th every single year. Where does Lindy’s have them this year? Yep – 11^th.

3. Minnesota (.52) – This is a bit misleading, since the Gophers are still coasting on the wings of 2002’s surprising 7^th place finish, after being picked 9.4^th. Lindy’s is again the worst at predicting Minnesota’s finishes, underrated them by an average of .8 per year. Lindy’s has the Gophers 10^th this year.

ACCURATE

4. Iowa (.4) – Despite finishing slightly on the underrated side of things, the Hawks have been one of the most difficult teams to predict in the Big Ten. In 2002, predicted 6.8, finished 1.5. In 2004, predicted 3.6, finished 1.5. In 2006, predicted 3.2, finished a disastrous 8.5. Its always hard to say where Iowa will finish, but typically they don’t end up too close to where the experts say.

5. Wisconsin (-.2) – Much like Iowa, their overall rating makes them seem an easy team to predict, but look closer: In 2006, predicted 5.8, finished 2.5. In 2005, predicted 7.1, finished 4.5. In 2003, predicted 3.6, finished 7.5. In 2002, predicted 4.8, finished 8.5. It’ll be hard for the Badgers to overachieve this year, as they look to be the consensus 2^nd place choice.

6. Purdue (-.22) – With the exception of 2005, when almost nobody say the Boilers’ decline coming, Phil Steele has been on the money predicting Purdue. He missed their finish by 7 spots in 2005, but in the other four years combined, he’s only been off by a combined 2.5 standings spots – very impressive. Steele has Purdue in a three-way tie for 5^th this year.

7. Penn State (-.28) – When it comes to predicting the Nittany Lions, Athlon has been brutal. Off by an average of 3.5 spots per year, and the worst of all five magazines in 4 of the past five years, Athlon has Penn State 4^th this year.

OVERRATED

8. Michigan (-.72) – Predictably, Michigan has been a bit overrated in 4 of the last 5 season. Street & Smith’s seems to know the Wolverines the best; other than 2005, S & S has been dead on Michigan’s finishes twice, and off by just half a place twice. This information is interesting, because Street & Smith’s is one of the few magazines that doesn’t have Michigan winning the conference this season – they picked Wisconsin.

9. Ohio State (-.8) – If you want originality on the Buckeyes, don’t ask the Sporting News. TSN has picked the Buckeyes first every year since 2001, and they’ve only been completely right once, last year. OSU has tied for first twice in that time period, but they’ve also logged a 6^th and a T2nd. In both years OSU hasn’t finished first, Street & Smith has been the most accurate in foreseeing their decline.

10. Illinois (-.9) – Throw out 2003’s disappointing 11^th place finish, when Illinois was predicted 8^th, the Illini has performed more or less to expectation. Lindy’s wins this one – missing Illinois’ finish by just 2 total spots over 4 years. This is great news for Illini fans; Lindy’s has Illinois higher than any other magazine, putting them 6^th. The magazine has been on the money 4 out of 5 years, and there’s no reason to think this year will be different.

11. Michigan State (-1.28) – Everyone this side of East Lansing probably saw this coming. But it wasn’t just last year’s disaster that did in the Spartans, finishing 10^th after being predicted 6^th. In 2005, they finished 9^th after being predicted 5^th, and in 2002, finished T8th after being predicted 3^rd. That’s a 60% disaster rate – not good.

So, after all this, which magazine actually does the trick the best? We added all the places by which a magazine missed predicting the final standings. For example, if a magazine predicted Illinois 9^th, and they finished 7^th, that’s 2 points. It’s like golf – low score wins.

1. The Sporting News (110) – Consistently the best of the bunch, finishing 2^nd, 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd and 2^nd in predicting the conference, TSN has Michigan winning it this year, and the Illini 8^th.

2. Lindy’s (115) – Lindy’s isn’t too far behind TSN, and despite underrating Indiana and Minnesota, they’ve been great at sorting out the middle of the often-crowded Big Ten pack.

3. Athlon (125) – Athlon was best last year, but has been maddeningly middle of the road before that, finishing 3^rd, 3^rd, 4^th and 4^th amongst the five magazines. With only one finish better than 3^rd in five years, this isn’t the magazine to bet on.
4. Phil Steele (127) – Ouch. Dead last of the five magazines three straight years, from 2003-2005. What’s killed Mr. Steele? An inability to figure out the Spartans, missing them by 4 places 4 of 5 years. Steele hasn’t been great with Iowa either, missing them by 4 places 3 times.
5. Street & Smith (129) – You never know what you’re going to get with the S & S gang. Best of the five twice, last or tied for last three times, its feast or famine with this outfit. Illini fans should hope it’s a famine year – Street & Smith has them predicted for 11^th place.

This article compiled with assistance from data provided by www.stassen.com.