Pac-10 Preseason Magazine Analysis

(This article originally appeared on oregonstate.rivals.com)

Before the gridiron battles of autumn, another war is waged on news stands across the county. Throughout the summer, in the dead period between spring and fall practice, annual College Football Preview magazines go public, competing with one another to see which can deliver the most accurate prognostication of the upcoming season.

As Beaver fans digest this year’s editions, BeaverBlitz decided to examine five major annuals from the time period 2002-2006 to see which proved the most accurate in predicting the results of the Pac Ten and the Beavers

We’re looking at five of the top college football journals in the country; Athlon, Lindy’s, Phil Steele, Street & Smith and The Sporting News. These five represent the most renowned and respected college football predictions each summer.

First of all, let’s start with the raw data. Here’s a rundown of each team, with their average rating from the five magazines over the 2002-2006 time period:

(A quick note: When two teams tie for 3^rd, they are both given a 3.5 for their finish that year, as they shared the 3^rd and 4^th positions.)

USC
Athlon 1.2
Lindy's 1.6
The Sporting News 1.4
Phil Steele 1.2
Street&Smith 2.2

UCLA
Athlon 4.6
Lindy's 5.4
The Sporting News 5.6
Phil Steele 4.6
Street&Smith 5.6

Washington
Athlon 5.8
Lindy's 5.8
The Sporting News 5.8
Phil Steele 5.3
Street&Smith 5.6

Washington State
Athlon 6.2
Lindy's 5.8
The Sporting News 5
Phil Steele 6.4
Street&Smith 5.8

Oregon
Athlon 4.4
Lindy's 3.6
The Sporting News 4.4
Phil Steele 4.3
Street&Smith 3.4

Oregon State
Athlon 5.4
Lindy's 5.4
The Sporting News 5.6
Phil Steele 5.9
Street&Smith 5.6

Arizona
Athlon 8.4
Lindy's 8.2
The Sporting News 8.4
Phil Steele 8.4
Street&Smith 9.2

Arizona State
Athlon 8.4
Lindy's 8.2
The Sporting News 8.4
Phil Steele 8.4
Street&Smith 9.2

Cal
Athlon 5.2
Lindy's 5.6
The Sporting News 4.8
Phil Steele 4.8
Street&Smith 5.2

Stanford
Athlon 8.8
Lindy's 8.6
The Sporting News 9
Phil Steele 9.1
Street&Smith 7.8

So that’s where the teams were rated, overall. Let’s break it down, now, from most underrated to most overrated. Each team will be listed with three numbers: their average predicted finish, their average actual finish, and the difference between the two. So, the higher the number, the more underrated they are. (Ex: If a team’s predicted to finish 10^th, and they finish first, that’s a score of 9.)

UNDERRATED

1. Cal (5.12, 3.6 = 1.56) – Year in, year out the most underrated team in the Pac 10 since 2002. The Bears made up the most ground in 2003, when they were picked 8.4, but finished 3.5. In 2002, they were picked 9.8 and finished 5.5. The three years since have been pretty on the level, with their first place tie last year earning them a few more ‘underrated’ points. If you want a bad prediction on Cal, ask The Sporting News, who has been off on Cal’s finish by 14 total places in just 5 seasons, almost 3 spots per year. That’s bad.

2. Oregon State (5.58, 4.7 = .88) – That’s right, Beaver fans, this has been the second most underrated team in the Pac 10 in recent years. Only 2003’s 6^th place finish has been worse than expected, the Beavs overachieved by 4.5 spots in 2006, 1.1 spots in 2005, and .7 spots in 2004. Somehow, this team continues to get less respect as the years go on. Phil Steele had the clearest crystal ball on OSU fortunes until this past season, when he picked State to finish tied for 9^th. Ouch. Has he learned his lesson? This year, Steele has the Beavers 6^th, lowest of all the major magazine. Guess not. Don’t worry – they’ve taught this lesson before.

3. Washington State (5.84, 5.3 = .54) – This rating is a bit inflated based on 2002’s run to the Pac-10 co-title, and 2003’s 2^nd place finish. In recent years, Wazzu has actually been a bit overrated, crashing to a T9th finish in 2005 after being predicted 6.6. Last year they were slightly underrated, building on a 7.6 prediction to finish 6.5.

PREDICTABLE

4. UCLA (5.16, 4.8 = .36) – There’s no doubt at all who knows the Bruins Best: Athlon’s Sports. In five years, Athlon has been off on the Bruins finish by 3 total spots – in fact, the mag has never missed the UCLA finish by more than one spot in the final standings, a remarkable accomplishment. This year, Athlon has UCLA 3^rd, which means you can bet the ranch the Bruins clock in somewhere between 2^nd and 4^th.

5. USC (1.52, 1.2 = .32) – As good as USC has been, they’ve still been a bit underrated by the preseason journals. While the other four mags have been awfully close, the folks at Street & Smith’s can’t bring themselves to give the Trojans respect. S & S picked USC 4^th in 2002, 3^rd in 2003, 2^nd in 2006. They finished 1^st or T1st every year.

6. Stanford (8.66, 8.4 = .26) – Just as USC has been predictably great, the Cardinal have been predictably brutal. An average finish of 8.4 over five years is bad enough, but the predicted finish of 8.66 is even worse. Other than 2005’s 4-way tie for 4^th, Stanford has been T8th or worse every year.

7. Arizona (8.52, 8.3 = .22) – Athlon, Sporting News and Phil Steele have been all over the ‘Cats, picking them an average of 8.4, with their average finish of 8.3. Lindy’s has been just as close, with an average pick of 8.2. Street & Smith’s is the journal to avoid, being singlehandedly responsible for ‘Zona’s status as slightly underrated. S & S has picked Arizona an average of 9.2 in 5 years. Jeez, they’re not that bad.

8. Arizona State (4.92, 5.4 = -.48) – The Sun Devils, despite seeming fairly predictable, have been all over the map. 2006 – overrated by 3 spots, 2005 – overrated by 1.8 spots, 2004 – underrated by 2.1 spots, 2003 – overrated by 5.1 spots, 2002 – underrated by 5.4 spots. This is a good team to avoid if you’re looking to have them figured out preseason. Phil Steele has been the best with the Devils, but even he hasn’t been close.

OVERRATED

9. Oregon (4.02, 5.1 = -1.08) – Overrated by over a spot per year, the Ducks have quacked their way to almost the top of the list of consistently overrated Pac-10 squads. They’ve been overrated by 2.5 spots or more 3 of the 5 years. Don’t ask The Sporting News for help: they’ve been off on Oregon by at least 2.5 spots every single year, either up or down. Look for Phil Steele to add even more points to the Ducks’ overrated tally this year; Steele has Oregon pegged for a tie for 2^nd!

10. Washington (5.66, 8.00 = -2.34) – Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Huskies, who started the decade at the top of the Pac-10, have been usurped by the Cougars, passed by Oregon and OSU, and are far and away the most consistently overrated unit on the Pacific Coast. Get this: Steele has overrated Washington by 1 ½, 1 ½, 3, 5 ½ and 2 ½ spots. When will he learn? This year, he’s got the Huskies 8^th, so I guess they’ll finish…12^th?

Now that we’ve seen how each team stacks up, let’s rate the magazines on their overall performance. Here’s how it’s done: for every spot the journal misses a team, whether its over or underrated, that’s 1 point. Low score wins:

1. Athlon – 96

2. Phil Steele – 97

3. Lindy’s – 99

4. Sporting News – 102

5. Street & Smith’s – 107

Well done, Athlon, the Pac-10 accuracy champs!