What's Going Wrong With Virginia Tech?

(This article originally appeared on www.hokiehaven.com.)

After jumping to a 16-5 start, and a 6-1 mark in ACC play, Seth Greenberg's Virginia Tech Hokies dropped two straight last week, both in rather embarrassing fashion, to fall to 16-7, with their ACC title and possible NCAA tournament hopes in serious jeopardy. What was just a week ago shaping up as The Dream Season is in danger of becoming The One That Got Away and, unfortunately, Tech's schedule doesn't get any easier; four of the Hokies' final 7 games are against the top three teams in the conference.

The glaring weakness that has emerged on this Virginia Tech team is an inability to defend height. There's no secret to the fact that the Hokies are a guard dominated unit; what is surprising is the brutal degree to which Tech has been crushed by good post play. In each of Tech's 3 ACC losses, the opponent's leading scorer has measured 6-foot-7 or taller, including the recent clinic put on by Boston College's Jared Dudley, who went off for 30 points and 13 rebounds.

Dudley is a good player, as are North Carolina State's Ben McCauley (20 points, 7 rebounds) and Florida State Al Thornton (27 points, 13 rebounds). But it's also clear that Virginia Tech's interior defense brings out the absolute best in its opposition's best big men. Consider this:

- Dudley's 30 points were a season high, and his 13 rebounds were his highest since November 13
- McCauley's 20 points were his highest in 6 games, and his 10 FG made were his second highest total of the year
- Thornton's 27 points were his third most of the year, and his 13 rebounds were a season high

Consider this final stat: when the opponent's leading scorer is 6-foot-7 or taller, Tech is 1-3. When the leading scorer is shorter than 6-foot-7, Tech is 5-0. There's no way around it: Virginia Tech is getting crushed by teams with size and bulk, and having little problem with guard-dominated squads. When the Hokies play post defense, they win. When they don't, they don't. It's really been that simple.

Where has Coleman Collins been? At 6-foot-9, 240-pounds, Collins is the only Hokie with a prayer of manning up and stopping the bleeding in the paint. But against North Carolina State and Boston College, Collins has vanished, putting up lines of 0 points-3 rebounds-1 assist-1 turnover-1 personal foul and 6 points-3 rebounds- 0 assists- 0 turnover-0 personal foul. Logging only one personal foul in the last two games has to be looked at as a bad thing; the Hokies biggest player has to be more physical in the middle, and force the opposition to think twice about coming hard to the basket, even if that means drawing a few whistles. You can't be a masher if you're getting called for a foul per game or less. Since a 14 board outburst against Maryland, Collins' rebounding has been almost nonexistent. In four games since, 104 court minutes have resulted in just 2 offensive rebounds for Tech's tallest player. This number just has to improve if Virginia Tech hopes to start winning again.

So, what do Tech's prospects the rest of the year look like, using this metric?

Virginia
At North Carolina
At North Carolina State
Boston College
Miami
At Virginia
Clemson

Virginia, who the Hokies play twice, is a guard dominated team. The Cavs don't get more than seven a game from anyone taller than 6-foot-5. If Virginia is still undefeated in brand new John Paul Jones Arena when the Hokies come calling, it's going to be a difficult road win. But, given Virginia's guard-reliance, and Virginia Tech's week off before this Saturday's clash in Blacksburg, a Hokie sweep is more likely than the reverse. Clemson doesn't have a dominant single scorer, and since that season finale is in Cassell, we'll project it a win for now. The Miami Hurricanes are led by guards, and don't have ten wins, so that should be a win as well. It will be almost impossible to win at North Carolina, with both Hansbrough wreaking havoc in the paint, and the revenge factor on the Heels' minds.

Going 3-2 over those five would put Tech at 19-9, 9-5 in the conference, and repeat contests against NC State and Boston College undecided. A major improvement in post defense will be needed to reverse the results of the first games in each series. 19-11 and a weak finish will likely mean a 7-9 seed, and a very difficult second round NCAA matchup. 21-9 would put the Hokies in the 4-6 range, and offer them a much more winnable second round contest, and a very realistic shot at the Sweet 16.

The question is, will they make the necessary improvements?

The second half of ACC play starts Saturday against Virginia. For the Hokies, it starts in the paint.