Tuesday, February 06, 2007

How did ISU men's basketball do on their Big XII mid-season report card?

(This article originally appeared on www.big12-fans.com.)

Brian #1

Three weeks ago, Two Brians and a Brad asked what the % chance was that ISU would make the NCAAs this season, with answers coming in between 10% - 51%. A recent five game losing streak has plunged that probability to dependent completely on leaving Oklahoma City with the Big XII Tournament Title, an outcome that isn’t going to happen.

In our family’s preseason prediction pool, yours truly set the over/under on the amount of Cyclone wins this season at 15, knowing that the two suckers who share this column with me would drink some cardinal & gold Kool-Aid and take the over, even though I expected more in the ballpark of 11-13 wins. As it stands, ISU is 12-10 and 3-5 in the Big XII, with 8 conference tilts and at least one bonus game in OKC remaining.

Left with just four scholarship players after a boatload of defections from the Wayne Morgan regime, McDermott has transformed this team’s identity in just a season. The Cyclones, despite not always succeeding at doing so, clearly place a priority on valuing the basketball, treating each and every possession with reverence, and pounding the ball inside on as many possessions as possible. The problem is, without any solid Big XII ball handlers, and lacking the size to consistently gain leverage in the paint, this team isn’t that great at accomplishing its priorities. Last year’s team, even when giving away possessions like food stamps at a Hawkeye alumni gathering, was still pretty good at the other things, like scoring in transition, and wearing sporty head bands.

Wesley Johnson, at 12.7 ppg and 9.0 rpg, is clearly the story of this year’s team, but I’m a bit skeptical of his ability to turn into an all Big XII caliber player. He’s currently 6’7 and 190 lbs. Are people 6’7 even allowed to be that skinny. Putting on weight in basketball isn’t as easy as it is in football, and if Wesley doesn’t add a good 25-30 pounds, he doesn’t have a prayer of being a true banger in the Big XII. His outside shot is pretty good, however, and I think if continues to develop, he can make a big impact in the cardinal and gold.

I have no doubt whatsoever in McDermott’s ability to turn the Cyclones in to a long term winner, but this year isn’t the smashing success we were all projecting two weeks ago. The next two weeks of games will be absolutely crucial: Missouri, at Texas, Oklahoma and at Kansas State. If ISU wins 2 of 4, it’s an NIT team and might have a chance to win a first round game in OKC. 1 of 4, and they’ll be sitting at 13-13 with 4 to play. A goose egg over the next two weeks will kill any thoughts of post season play, and almost ensure a losing record.

Grade: B

Brian #2

I see the question “How do Greg McDermott’s Cyclones break down on the midseason report card” breaking down into two categories- recruiting and coaching. Basically, I feel like McDermott should be graded first against the team I expected when he took the job, and second against the potential of the players now in place.

After McDermott accepted the job and people were done defecting, I was strongly considering trying out for the team in hopes of being the starting point guard. We had Ross Marsden, Jiri Hubalek, Rahshon Clark, and Jessan Gray coming back. None of those guys are remotely close to being able to handle the ball well enough to play guard, and the consensus entering the year was that only one of them was really a Division One player (Clark). This was after the Spring signing period, so basically even all the leftovers were already pledged to a school.

So what did McDermott do? He went out and signed a JUCO guard who could dominate the ball (Mike Taylor), and two serviceable guards in the short term (JUCO Corey McIntosh and freshman Dodie Dunson). And then there is Wesley Johnson. The story of the rock under which McDermott’s staff found the coltish 6’7” freshman has been told too many times, but guys like that don’t usually slip through the cracks. He has every chance to become an All Big Twelve performer as soon as next season. So McDermott’s grade on compiling talent in such a short, talent squeezed window has to be an A. He got three players better than any that I thought were still available.

Coaching, though, has not been as good. He is far from struggling, but I was expecting him to excel in this area, and I’ve seen more individual player development than actual cohesive growth of the team. Certainly, Hubalek is much improved from when this year started, and others have gotten better, as well. But the team hasn’t grown by the leaps and bounds I expected. We are better right now than I expected three months ago, but not as good as I expected one month ago, if that makes any sense. However, Hubalek has improved enough to merit a B in the coaching category for McDermott.

So an A and a B. In my book, that averages to a B+ when you take into account Mike Taylor’s on court antics. I cheer for him, but I know that he would be public enemy number one if he was wearing the opposing team’s jersey because of his propensity to showboat. I’m happy with McDermott, but I almost want to give an incomplete, because these are far from his players. Taylor is a necessary piece right now, but he would have no place in a regular McDermott offense, so that may be slowing down the team’s growth. He will probably be necessary next year, as well, so I think the 2008-2009 season will be the first one where we can really evaluate McDermott as we will know him for the rest of his time.

Grade: Incomplete

Brad

I’ll admit it—to say I got my hopes up too high too early for this ISU men’s basketball team would be the understatement of the year. Everyone in my family, and every sensible Cyclone fan, was telling me otherwise. But I didn’t listen. My optimism overtook any common sense like it does every season, whether it be football or basketball. Maybe it’s because I long for the days when I would eat Cyclone sherbet over bowl victories, or hang out with Curtis and Will at Aunt Maude’s. I want winning to be synonymous with Cyclone basketball again.

Of course, this optimistic guy does not see the program going to hell in a hand basket; in fact, I think “NC-two-A” tourneys are right around the corner. I miss you Larry. The fact is, this team has some decent players, and it has some terrible players. And then there’s Chris Caesar. The problem is: he actually plays—significantly against Baylor. He is, surprisingly, quite athletic. I’ve seen him almost pull off 360 dunks in warm-ups. So, he could be good in an amateur And-One League with no one guarding him, but that won’t get us anywhere in the Big 12.

Greg McDermott has stuck to his guns and played the style he likes to play, even if it doesn’t suit the current roster like it did his gritty UNI teams. He likes to slow the game down, play tough defense, and grind out wins. Our defense has improved immensely under his guidance, but our offense allows us to grind out more losses than wins. I’m still disappointed with the loss at Colorado and, until seeing the recent K-State success, was mildly upset over the home loss to the wild kitties. But we never play well in Boulder, and KSU still has better talent and more experience than the Cyclones.

McDermott and staff are moving things in the right direction. Recruiting looks strong for next year and we even have quite the head start on the upcoming years. He’s making our man-to-man defense fun to watch, even though we are usually outmanned. When we fill some of our holes and the guys get more experience in the system, the offense will come around. Right now, I’d give McDermott and Co. a B+.


Brian #1 is a freelance writer living in Chicago, and a regular contributor to Rivals.com and his website, briankgolden.blogspot.com. Brian #2 is a sophomore at Iowa State University majoring in finance and Spanish. Brad is a junior at Notre Dame, majoring in Economics and Philosophy.

No comments: