A Look Ahead

(This article originally appeared on www.hokiehaven.com.)

Coming off of a sound win over Virginia on Saturday, Virginia Tech's schedule doesn't get any easier with two road games including one to Chapel Hill against top-five North Carolina. This week will go a long way in determining where the Hokies stand in the ACC. Check out what's on tap this week.

North Carolina (22-3, 8-2 ACC)
Good wins: at Arizona 92-64
Bad losses: at North Carolina State 83-79

The Hokies have been working really hard, so when do they get a day off? North Carolina is next and the Heels, undefeated at home and sniffing revenge, will present Virginia Tech an incredible test tonight in Chapel Hill.

Some things in life just aren't fair. Carolina wins a national title in dominant fashion, and two years later, is absolutely loaded with talent, as they always are, and this talent is incredibly young. Nine of the top ten scorers are freshmen or sophomores. Nine different players snag at least 2.5 boards a game. No one plays more than 29 minutes a game, and 10 players play at least 12. The talent is so deep that Roy Williams has been afforded the luxury of spending the good part of the season until February tinkering with the lineup, rotating players liberally, and keeping everyone rested and healthy. No doubt the team is gelling now, and a BC/VT sweep this week will make Carolina a near-lock for the ACC title.

The Heels are paced by sophomore Tyler Hansbrough (18.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg), and get key support from a trio of freshmen: Brendan Wright (15 and 6), Wayne Ellington (12 and 3) and Ty Lawson (12 and 3). Wright has been particularly good lately. Check out his line against Wake Forest: 7-7 FG, 15 pts, 7 reb., 5 assts. When a team like Virginia Tech, that has struggled with height, is playing a big man shooting, catching, and passing the ball this well…it can get ugly.

So, how did the Hokies knock off this squad in January? Forget rebounding – Carolina won that battle, 42-28. VT created an astounding 14 steals (9 from Dowdell and Gordon), and got to the free throw line 38 times. Both these stats speak to aggression, and Tech has to have it tonight. They've got to go after the ball to create steals, and attack the basket to draw fouls. They truly have nothing to lose: a loss at UNC is a loss at UNC. Expected. Aggressiveness, good shooting and a bit of luck might propel the Hokies to a program-turning win, and the reward is worth the risk of aggression.



North Carolina State (13-10, 3-7 ACC)
Good wins: North Carolina 83-79
Bad losses: Cincinnati 80-71

From a team seeking revenge to a team due for it, Virginia Tech battles with the Wolfpack on Sunday. If Tech finishes a game away from the ACC title, or misses a bye by a game, the January 31st incident against NC State will be circled on the calendar as the culprit for the Hokies' shortcoming. Tech lost by 11 at Cassell, their only home loss of the year, and the margin could have been more. Outrebounded by nine and outshot by 18%, only superior ball control (5 turnovers total) kept VT in the game at all.

NC State followed that road upset with another shocker, beating in-state bully UNC at home by 4. Just when it seemed the team was making an NCAA run, road losses to Georgia Tech and Miami killed the momentum, and has the Wolfpack, barring a miracle, NIT bound. The 'Pack is a streaky bunch, clearly, and presents significant matchup problems for Tech. All three leading scorers are above 6'8 and, as we pointed out last week, almost every team that has beaten Tech this year has been led by a big-man scorer. Freshman Brandon Costner has been steady as she goes in his young ACC career, missing double figures only once, and hunting for his seventh double-double.

The Pack doesn't have the home court advantage other ACC squads do; in fact, the UNC stunner was the only home conference game they've won all year. Tech certainly won't be headed in with a nothing-to-lose mentality. With five days to rest, confidence is key, and the route to that assuredness is in the hands of the experienced guard combo of Dowdell and Gordon. VT can't mash with NC State, they just can't. The Hokies need big games from their guards, both in controlling and distributing the ball, but in possessing the "we've been here before" mentality that can carry Tech to victory.