Big Ten Media Day: News & Notes

(This article originally published August 1 on www.orangeandbluenews.com)

Here’s a rundown of a scattering of tidbits from today’s opening press conference at Big Ten Media Days in Chicago:

FUZZY MATH

Illini coach Ron Zook explained that he thought the rule change to move kickoffs back to the 30-yard line would actually be a 7-yard change, because most teams return kicks that are within two yards of the end line. But, don’t they already do this? I’m pretty sure that in this case, five yards back is truly just five yards back. Wisconsin’s Bret Bielema weighed in on the kickoff issue by saying this his independent research showed that, since the NFL moved their kickoff line back to the 30-yard line, that the team receiving the opening kick has won 80% of overtime games. Every bit of research I can find says the number is much closer to 60%. In my opinion, the biggest thing the new kickoff rule will do is help keep games closer. Why? Well, who receives kickoffs? With the exception of each half’s opening kick, the team receiving a kick is always a team that has just been scored on. So, its an extra five (or seven) yards for every team that has just given up points. It might not make a huge difference, but over the long run, it will mean closer games.

FOOD STUFFS

I attended MAC Media Day in Detroit last week, and the presentation of that event really trumped this one. Sure, the Big Ten brings the ESPN crew, a whole bunch more people, and the downtown Chicago setting, but I don’t think they got the little things right. MAC: free dinner for all reporters that included sirloin, pork, asparagus, free beer and amazing desserts. Big Ten: Cellophane-wrapped hoagies with potato chips and fruit. Sure, they’ve got more people to feed here, but the difference was marked.

KARMA

In discussing his squad’s crucial road victory at Iowa last year, Wisconsin Coach Bret Bielema referenced the hostile environment at Iowa, saying “I went to school there, and they called me a bunch of names I’d never even heard before.” Ironic, since Bielema, after a 1992 victory over cross-state rival Iowa State at that same Kinnick Stadium, told Cyclone Coach Jim Walden at midfield, “I think you’re a big (expletive), and I’ve enjoyed kicking your (expletive) for five years.” Instant Karma – its gonna get ya.

PRETTY BOY WATCH

ESPN Golden Boy Kirk Herbstreit was in the house today, but no Corso. Say what you will about Herby, he is easily the brains of ESPN’s GameDay duo. I can’t help but wondering in front of what mirror Lee Corso was trying on mascot heads while Herbstreit was actually doing some work. Ladies: the quarterback actually looks a little pudgy in person.

EVERYONE’S A POLITICIAN

Weighing in on the kickoff rule, Northwestern Coach Pat Fitzgerald said “As a Chicagoan, watching Devin Hester run back kicks in Soldier Field, I’m a little scared of defending the kickoffs.” I’m sure Fitzgerald meant what he said, but the comment was a little stiff, and came off like the politician who starts every speech with: Its great to be here in (town name), how about them (local sports team)?”

TIM BREWSTER: EASILY EXCITABLE

While I enjoyed Tim Brewster’s opening comments to the gathered press, his energy came off as being a bit excessive when making a few comments. In reference to Minnesota’s long –standing competition with Michigan for a certain little brown piece of hardware, Brewster exclaimed, full of bluster, “Make no mistake about it, we’re going to go get that JUG!” Commenting on new Minnesota basketball coach Tubby Smith’s aggressive style of basketball, Brewster almost shouted, “We’re going to have the barn ROCKING!”

ACCENTUATE THE…WHAT?

Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz took a markedly different approach to his opening comments than the other Big Ten coaches. While most, most notedly Indiana’s Bill Lynch, used the time to accentuate all the positives about their team, Ferentz chose to speak mostly about all the uncertainties and challenges his team faced. Captain Kirk spoke of weakness on the offensive line, young quarterbacking, and no real receivers to speak of. I’ve always liked Ferentz’s humility, but couldn’t help but wonder if this was humble pie, or an attempt to manage expectations by the leader of a program who has barely gone .500 since its coach’s huge contract extension in 2004.

THE VIEW FROM ABOVE

Penn State’s Joe Paterno said he may consider coaching from the press box in coming years. After suffering a leg injury in last season’s loss to Wisconsin, Paterno performed coaching duties from the press box, and said the experience wasn’t as bad as one might think. “You see a lot from up there,” Paterno said. “Every now and then I slipped my coaches a note, but mostly I was able to just sit down, have a cup of coffee.” JoePa went on to joke: “I just sat on my rear end and watched television. I felt like a newspaper guy.”

LIVE AND IN COLOR

Kurt Kittner, a Schaumburg native and the Illini’s all-time winningest quarterback, took in the festivities today, dressed in a snappy black suit and orange & blue tie. Kittner will begin his career in broadcasting this fall as the color man on Illini Radio. Kittner’s thoughts on the Illini’s prospects this fall. “I think it looks good,” the ex-Chicago Bear said. “We’ve got a lot of really good young players looking to come in, and a lot of guys who saw playing time last year that need to step up and really become playmakers this season.” And how’s the broadcasting training going? “We’ll find out September 1.”

Big Ten Media Day: Press Conference

(The following article appears on www.orangeandbluenews.com, the premiere site for Illinois athletics information.)

The Big Ten conference season got officially underway Tuesday on Lower Wacker Drive in downtown Chicago.

With 8 bowl bids in play, the annual BCS bid (or two), three new head coaches, and the introduction of the Big Ten Network, there was plenty to talk about at the opening press conference. With the ESPN News cameras and even the pretty boy, Kirk Herbstreit, in the house, the league’s 11 coaches addressed the media in the Hyatt Regency’s Grand Ballroom. Each coach began with an opening statement, and then proceeded to answer questions from the assembled media.

Orange and Blue News rates the best and worst of the day’s events:

Best Opening Statements:

1. Tim Brewster, Minnesota – I came in prepared to not like this guy, but once he started talking, it became obvious immediately how he’s assembled his reputation as ace recruiter. Speaking with noticeably more volume, animation and intensity than every other coach, Brewster extolled the virtues of Minnesota football past, saying “Minnesota has always been and will always be about winning.” Brewster also said that he will take his squad to spend time around John Gagliardi at nearby St. John’s University, the winningest coach in college football history. Who knows if the fire and brimstone will translate to W’s, but one thing is certain: Brewster looks the part.
2. Joe Paterno, Penn State – There’s a lot to love about JoePa. This is my first time seeing the old codger up close and personal, and I wasn’t disappointed. He was genuine, humble, didn’t indulge in a lot of “coach speak,” cracked a few good jokes, and most importantly – was honest about his football team. “We’ll be a good team, but not a great team, we’re just a little too young for that,” Paterno told the assembled media. In person, Paterno plays like a tender-hearted Junior Soprano; tough, very funny, with just a touch of “crazy like a fox.” Good stuff.

Worst Opening Statements:

1. Bill Lynch, Indiana – Sadly, for the second straight year, a Big Ten coach takes the reins following the untimely passing of his predecessor. Although I’m wishing the entire Hoosier family the best in dealing with that situation, Lynch didn’t impress me today. There’s no creative way to say it: the man was boring. He didn’t move, he didn’t inspire, he didn’t stir much emotion of any kind outside of “I wish they’d just bring back JoePa.” Additionally, in his opening statement, he went through a verbose description of everything that even resembles a positive on his football team, trying to make the Hoosiers sound dangerous and improved. It felt like a classic case of “methinks he doth protest too much.”
2. Mark D’Antonio – Michigan State – If there’s one thing I can’t stand, its “coach speak.” In just fifteen minutes, the new Spartan sheriff gave us “Change is always tough,” “we’re still on the honeymoon here,” “we’re really excited to be here,” and didn’t really contribute much insight at all. The things he did say seemed to be designed explicitly mark himself as a tough guy. “I will not tolerate a weak defense,” he said with a scowl. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Best Question –

This one is kind of tough, because most of the material at the press conference was pretty vanilla, but I did appreciate the reporter who asked Ohio State’s Jim Tressel what he thought of the difference in speed between the SEC and Big Ten, after the Florida debacle last January. The reporter referenced an earlier question of Ron Zook which asked the same thing, based on his experiences in each conference. It put Tressel in a situation where I wasn’t really sure what he was going to say; that’s the definition of a good question in my book.

Worst Question –

1. News flash: we’re talking to coaches, not psychics. A reporter near the front of the ballroom asked Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald the following question:

“Given that you’re coaching at your alma mater, and you’re a pretty young guy, do you see yourself staying at Northwestern as long as JoePa has been at Penn State?”

First of all, how could he possibly know that? “Yes, Mr. Reporter, based on my first year in Evanston, I’m guessing that in the year 2047, I’m still going to be roaming the sidelines at Ryan Field. And its going to be great driving to work every day in my flying car.” Secondly, it really doesn’t matter what he thinks. Does that change anything about Northwestern football this year? What a bad question. Fitzgerald’s response hit the nail right on the head, and drew a laugh from the crowd: “I’m going to have to win a lot more games than 4 to stick around that long.”

2. Speaking of stuff that doesn’t matter at all right now, the following was asked of Tim Brewster: “How do you think the brand new TCF Stadium set to open in fall 2009 will affect your program?” Yeah, you know that stadium that is going to be built a full two years from now, how is that going to long-term affect the program you’ve been at for only six months? Nevermind all the interesting things to discuss: this year’s schedule, the recruiting class, coaching his son, a new conference, his NFL experience – let’s talk about a stadium that opens in 26 months.

Best Answer –

1. Describing backup fullback Chris Pressley’s recent academic trip to China, Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema explained his team’s new conditioning philosophy: “Pressley went over there at 265, and came back three weeks later at 250. So that’s our new weight loss program – send ‘em to China.”
2. In responding to a reporter who asked how he motivated his team and himself after dropping the National Title game to Florida last January, Jim Tressel responded without any abrasiveness, and related to the reporter on a personal level, saying that he and Tressel were probably very much alike, that whenever the reporter didn’t write a story as well as he’d liked, he probably couldn’t wait to get after it the next time and make sure he didn’t make the same mistake twice. It was friendly, smart, human – great answer to a tough question.

Worst Answer –

1. Lloyd Carr was asked how Chad Henne stacked up, after three years as a starter, with some of the other great QBs in Michigan history. Carr’s response, “I don’t compare players.” Ok, fair enough. But then, in Henne’s support, “Let’s not forget, this was a guy who was probably the only quarterback in Big 10 history to win a league title as a true freshman.” Yeah, we may have forgotten, since it happened in 2004! That’s the best you can do in reflecting on your man’s three year career?
2. A reporter asked Kirk Ferentz how he felt about the Hawkeyes’ schedule, which includes neither Michigan nor Ohio State. “I haven’t really thought about it at all.” Really, Kirk? Because its worth thinking about, when the combined 2006 conference record of Iowa’s 10 BCS conference opponents is 29-50. Forget thinking – just throw yourself a “soft schedule we don’t deserve” party.
3. Joe Paterno attempted to answer questions about members of his football team that have run afoul of the law. JoePa, who has made statements in the past which indicate he may not see rape as a serious crime, said “we’ve had some members of our team who may have…taken advantage of a woman…while she was drunk.” Not only does Paterno’s description of the crime allegedly committed by Nittany Lion Anwar Phillips in 2003 place some measure of blame on the victim by playing up her intoxication, but it also dodges the issue, by not calling the crime what it is. Can you imagine the attention would draw if a coach of Paterno’s stature said simply and firmly: “Men who rape women have no place on my football team.”

Best Media Guides

1. Ohio State – A beautifully simple cover design, complete with the patented Buckeye stickers and a shimmery silver finish; the best looking media guide I’ve ever seen.
2. Minnesota – I’m a sucker for stadium architecture, and the detailed drawings of TCF Bank Stadium are enough to make me want to see the place close up.
3. Illinois – I like that the Illini guide features Ron Zook, and the foreground image of players mobbing one another gets me pumped.

Worst Media Guides

1. Iowa – Two big, ugly Hawkeye football helmets with a nothing gray background is the best they could do? Seriously? The cover of this thing looks like my high school brother did it on Print Shop.
2. Michigan – A very close second. At least they put SOMETHING in the background behind their hideous guide cover. How does a school with Michigan’s tradition pull off such a weak marketing campaign for this media guide?
3. Purdue – I guess I just don’t think you should use the phrase “Boiler Up!” in a positive way, especially to introduce yourself to the media.

Best Philosophical Quotes –

“Young men will go wherever you want them to go, as long as you tell them how to get there,” Wisconsin Coach Bret Bielema

“Our nation is intoxicated with sport,” Purdue Coach Joe Tiller.

Coaches I’d want to Have a Beer With:

1. Ron Zook, Illinois
2. Jim Tressel, Ohio State
3. Anyone but Lloyd Carr.

Pac-10 Preseason Magazine Analysis

(This article originally appeared on oregonstate.rivals.com)

Before the gridiron battles of autumn, another war is waged on news stands across the county. Throughout the summer, in the dead period between spring and fall practice, annual College Football Preview magazines go public, competing with one another to see which can deliver the most accurate prognostication of the upcoming season.

As Beaver fans digest this year’s editions, BeaverBlitz decided to examine five major annuals from the time period 2002-2006 to see which proved the most accurate in predicting the results of the Pac Ten and the Beavers

We’re looking at five of the top college football journals in the country; Athlon, Lindy’s, Phil Steele, Street & Smith and The Sporting News. These five represent the most renowned and respected college football predictions each summer.

First of all, let’s start with the raw data. Here’s a rundown of each team, with their average rating from the five magazines over the 2002-2006 time period:

(A quick note: When two teams tie for 3^rd, they are both given a 3.5 for their finish that year, as they shared the 3^rd and 4^th positions.)

USC
Athlon 1.2
Lindy's 1.6
The Sporting News 1.4
Phil Steele 1.2
Street&Smith 2.2

UCLA
Athlon 4.6
Lindy's 5.4
The Sporting News 5.6
Phil Steele 4.6
Street&Smith 5.6

Washington
Athlon 5.8
Lindy's 5.8
The Sporting News 5.8
Phil Steele 5.3
Street&Smith 5.6

Washington State
Athlon 6.2
Lindy's 5.8
The Sporting News 5
Phil Steele 6.4
Street&Smith 5.8

Oregon
Athlon 4.4
Lindy's 3.6
The Sporting News 4.4
Phil Steele 4.3
Street&Smith 3.4

Oregon State
Athlon 5.4
Lindy's 5.4
The Sporting News 5.6
Phil Steele 5.9
Street&Smith 5.6

Arizona
Athlon 8.4
Lindy's 8.2
The Sporting News 8.4
Phil Steele 8.4
Street&Smith 9.2

Arizona State
Athlon 8.4
Lindy's 8.2
The Sporting News 8.4
Phil Steele 8.4
Street&Smith 9.2

Cal
Athlon 5.2
Lindy's 5.6
The Sporting News 4.8
Phil Steele 4.8
Street&Smith 5.2

Stanford
Athlon 8.8
Lindy's 8.6
The Sporting News 9
Phil Steele 9.1
Street&Smith 7.8

So that’s where the teams were rated, overall. Let’s break it down, now, from most underrated to most overrated. Each team will be listed with three numbers: their average predicted finish, their average actual finish, and the difference between the two. So, the higher the number, the more underrated they are. (Ex: If a team’s predicted to finish 10^th, and they finish first, that’s a score of 9.)

UNDERRATED

1. Cal (5.12, 3.6 = 1.56) – Year in, year out the most underrated team in the Pac 10 since 2002. The Bears made up the most ground in 2003, when they were picked 8.4, but finished 3.5. In 2002, they were picked 9.8 and finished 5.5. The three years since have been pretty on the level, with their first place tie last year earning them a few more ‘underrated’ points. If you want a bad prediction on Cal, ask The Sporting News, who has been off on Cal’s finish by 14 total places in just 5 seasons, almost 3 spots per year. That’s bad.

2. Oregon State (5.58, 4.7 = .88) – That’s right, Beaver fans, this has been the second most underrated team in the Pac 10 in recent years. Only 2003’s 6^th place finish has been worse than expected, the Beavs overachieved by 4.5 spots in 2006, 1.1 spots in 2005, and .7 spots in 2004. Somehow, this team continues to get less respect as the years go on. Phil Steele had the clearest crystal ball on OSU fortunes until this past season, when he picked State to finish tied for 9^th. Ouch. Has he learned his lesson? This year, Steele has the Beavers 6^th, lowest of all the major magazine. Guess not. Don’t worry – they’ve taught this lesson before.

3. Washington State (5.84, 5.3 = .54) – This rating is a bit inflated based on 2002’s run to the Pac-10 co-title, and 2003’s 2^nd place finish. In recent years, Wazzu has actually been a bit overrated, crashing to a T9th finish in 2005 after being predicted 6.6. Last year they were slightly underrated, building on a 7.6 prediction to finish 6.5.

PREDICTABLE

4. UCLA (5.16, 4.8 = .36) – There’s no doubt at all who knows the Bruins Best: Athlon’s Sports. In five years, Athlon has been off on the Bruins finish by 3 total spots – in fact, the mag has never missed the UCLA finish by more than one spot in the final standings, a remarkable accomplishment. This year, Athlon has UCLA 3^rd, which means you can bet the ranch the Bruins clock in somewhere between 2^nd and 4^th.

5. USC (1.52, 1.2 = .32) – As good as USC has been, they’ve still been a bit underrated by the preseason journals. While the other four mags have been awfully close, the folks at Street & Smith’s can’t bring themselves to give the Trojans respect. S & S picked USC 4^th in 2002, 3^rd in 2003, 2^nd in 2006. They finished 1^st or T1st every year.

6. Stanford (8.66, 8.4 = .26) – Just as USC has been predictably great, the Cardinal have been predictably brutal. An average finish of 8.4 over five years is bad enough, but the predicted finish of 8.66 is even worse. Other than 2005’s 4-way tie for 4^th, Stanford has been T8th or worse every year.

7. Arizona (8.52, 8.3 = .22) – Athlon, Sporting News and Phil Steele have been all over the ‘Cats, picking them an average of 8.4, with their average finish of 8.3. Lindy’s has been just as close, with an average pick of 8.2. Street & Smith’s is the journal to avoid, being singlehandedly responsible for ‘Zona’s status as slightly underrated. S & S has picked Arizona an average of 9.2 in 5 years. Jeez, they’re not that bad.

8. Arizona State (4.92, 5.4 = -.48) – The Sun Devils, despite seeming fairly predictable, have been all over the map. 2006 – overrated by 3 spots, 2005 – overrated by 1.8 spots, 2004 – underrated by 2.1 spots, 2003 – overrated by 5.1 spots, 2002 – underrated by 5.4 spots. This is a good team to avoid if you’re looking to have them figured out preseason. Phil Steele has been the best with the Devils, but even he hasn’t been close.

OVERRATED

9. Oregon (4.02, 5.1 = -1.08) – Overrated by over a spot per year, the Ducks have quacked their way to almost the top of the list of consistently overrated Pac-10 squads. They’ve been overrated by 2.5 spots or more 3 of the 5 years. Don’t ask The Sporting News for help: they’ve been off on Oregon by at least 2.5 spots every single year, either up or down. Look for Phil Steele to add even more points to the Ducks’ overrated tally this year; Steele has Oregon pegged for a tie for 2^nd!

10. Washington (5.66, 8.00 = -2.34) – Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Huskies, who started the decade at the top of the Pac-10, have been usurped by the Cougars, passed by Oregon and OSU, and are far and away the most consistently overrated unit on the Pacific Coast. Get this: Steele has overrated Washington by 1 ½, 1 ½, 3, 5 ½ and 2 ½ spots. When will he learn? This year, he’s got the Huskies 8^th, so I guess they’ll finish…12^th?

Now that we’ve seen how each team stacks up, let’s rate the magazines on their overall performance. Here’s how it’s done: for every spot the journal misses a team, whether its over or underrated, that’s 1 point. Low score wins:

1. Athlon – 96

2. Phil Steele – 97

3. Lindy’s – 99

4. Sporting News – 102

5. Street & Smith’s – 107

Well done, Athlon, the Pac-10 accuracy champs!

Slim Lineman Nets ISU Offer

(This article originally appeared on iowastate.rivals.com.)

Iowa State is in the running to obtain the commitment of a self-proclaimed "big finisher" from a traditional hotbed of football talent - Garland, Tex. But he's got visits to take and weight to gain and a senior season to play. Still, Jimmy Chase is pumped to have an offer from ISU.

Chase is a 6-foot-3, 235-pound offensive line prospect who currently holds offers from Iowa State and UL-Monroe. And several other BCS conference programs are showing him solid interest including Arkansas, Kansas, Iowa and Louisville.

Coach Scott Fountain is the point person on Chase's recruitment for the Iowa State staff, and according to Chase, Fountain has made a good impression.

"He's a cool person," said Chase. "I talked to him a couple times, and I just kept thinking that he seemed like a real cool person."

The offer from Ames was the first Chase received from a major D-I school and it came in a very now way - via text message.

"Coach Fountain texted me one day and just said 'We're ready to offer you, we're going to play ball'," said Chase. "I was pretty excited because that was my first big school."

Chase currently lists Arkansas as his favorite school, due both to the Razorbacks' recent emergence on the national scene, and their proximity to his Texas home. According to Chase, he will likely visit there, Kansas, Iowa and Iowa State come fall.

Wherever Chase ends up, his top priority once he hits college will be putting on pounds to his strong, but lean frame. He thinks his ideal playing weight is somewhere around 290, leaving him about 55 pounds to gain by the peak of his career.

Big Ten Preseason Magazine Analysis

(This article originally appeared on www.orangeandbluenews.com)

Before the gridiron battles of autumn, another war is waged on news stands across the county. Throughout the summer, in the dead period between spring and fall practice, annual College Football Preview magazines go public, competing with one another to see which can deliver the most accurate prognostication of the upcoming season.

As Illini fans digest this year’s editions, Orange and Blue News decided to examine five major annuals from the time period 2002-2006 to see which proved the most accurate in predicting the results of the Big Ten and your Fighting Illini.

We’re looking at five of the top college football journals in the country; Athlon, Lindy’s, Phil Steele, Street & Smith and The Sporting News. These five represent the most renowned and respected college football predictions each summer.

First of all, let’s start with the raw data. Here’s a chart of each team, with their average rating from the five magazines over the 2002-2006 time period:

(A quick note: When two teams tie for 3^rd, they are both given a 3.5 for their finish that year, as they shared the 3^rd and 4^th positions.)

Ohio State
Athlon 1.8
Lindy's 1.6
The Sporting News 1.2
Phil Steele 1.5
Street&Smith 2.6

Michigan
Athlon 1.6
Lindy's 1.4
The Sporting News 2.4
Phil Steele 1.9
Street&Smith 1.6

Iowa
Athlon 4.8
Lindy's 4.4
The Sporting News 5.6
Phil Steele 4.2
Street&Smith 4.2

Penn State
Athlon 6.6
Lindy's 4.8
The Sporting News 4.8
Phil Steele 5.1
Street&Smith 5.8

Purdue
Athlon 5.4
Lindy's 5.2
The Sporting News 4.2
Phil Steele 4.4
Street&Smith 6.2

Michigan State
Athlon 6.6
Lindy's 6.6
The Sporting News 7.4
Phil Steele 5.1
Street&Smith 5.8

Wisconsin
Athlon 4
Lindy's 5.2
The Sporting News 5.4
Phil Steele 5.7
Street&Smith 6.2

Minnesota
Athlon 7.2
Lindy's 5.2
The Sporting News 5.4
Phil Steele 5.7
Street&Smith 6.2

Northwestern
Athlon 9.4
Lindy's 9.2
The Sporting News 9.6
Phil Steele 9.1
Street&Smith 8.6

Illinois
Athlon 9
Lindy's 8.8
The Sporting News 9
Phil Steele 8
Street&Smith 9.2

Indiana
Athlon 10.4
Lindy's 11
The Sporting News 10.8
Phil Steele 11
Street&Smith 10.4

So, what do all these numbers add up to? By dividing a team’s average finish by their average predicted finish, each team gets a number score. A lower score makes a team traditionally underrated (higher finish than prediction), a higher score makes a team traditionally overrated. Let’s take a look at the Big Ten standings, from the most underrated to the most overrated, over the last 5 years.

UNDERRATED

1. Northwestern (2.18) – No respect for the Wildcats. Over the last five years, this has been the most underrated team in the conference, by a whopping margin. Across the board, underrated by more than 2 standings spots every single year, and it wasn’t just a one year wonder. The Wildcats were massively underrated in 2003, 2004 and 2005 and never overrated. This team hasn’t finished below their predicted finish since at least 2001.

2. Indiana (1.32) – It would be hard for a team that almost always gets picked last to be overrated, but there is something strange about the fact that most magazines always pick the Hoosiers for dead last, despite the fact that they haven’t finished there in any of the five years. Indiana shared 10^th place twice, but also has posted finishes of T9th, 10^th and T6th. Lindy’s and Phil Steele have picked them dead 11^th every single year. Where does Lindy’s have them this year? Yep – 11^th.

3. Minnesota (.52) – This is a bit misleading, since the Gophers are still coasting on the wings of 2002’s surprising 7^th place finish, after being picked 9.4^th. Lindy’s is again the worst at predicting Minnesota’s finishes, underrated them by an average of .8 per year. Lindy’s has the Gophers 10^th this year.

ACCURATE

4. Iowa (.4) – Despite finishing slightly on the underrated side of things, the Hawks have been one of the most difficult teams to predict in the Big Ten. In 2002, predicted 6.8, finished 1.5. In 2004, predicted 3.6, finished 1.5. In 2006, predicted 3.2, finished a disastrous 8.5. Its always hard to say where Iowa will finish, but typically they don’t end up too close to where the experts say.

5. Wisconsin (-.2) – Much like Iowa, their overall rating makes them seem an easy team to predict, but look closer: In 2006, predicted 5.8, finished 2.5. In 2005, predicted 7.1, finished 4.5. In 2003, predicted 3.6, finished 7.5. In 2002, predicted 4.8, finished 8.5. It’ll be hard for the Badgers to overachieve this year, as they look to be the consensus 2^nd place choice.

6. Purdue (-.22) – With the exception of 2005, when almost nobody say the Boilers’ decline coming, Phil Steele has been on the money predicting Purdue. He missed their finish by 7 spots in 2005, but in the other four years combined, he’s only been off by a combined 2.5 standings spots – very impressive. Steele has Purdue in a three-way tie for 5^th this year.

7. Penn State (-.28) – When it comes to predicting the Nittany Lions, Athlon has been brutal. Off by an average of 3.5 spots per year, and the worst of all five magazines in 4 of the past five years, Athlon has Penn State 4^th this year.

OVERRATED

8. Michigan (-.72) – Predictably, Michigan has been a bit overrated in 4 of the last 5 season. Street & Smith’s seems to know the Wolverines the best; other than 2005, S & S has been dead on Michigan’s finishes twice, and off by just half a place twice. This information is interesting, because Street & Smith’s is one of the few magazines that doesn’t have Michigan winning the conference this season – they picked Wisconsin.

9. Ohio State (-.8) – If you want originality on the Buckeyes, don’t ask the Sporting News. TSN has picked the Buckeyes first every year since 2001, and they’ve only been completely right once, last year. OSU has tied for first twice in that time period, but they’ve also logged a 6^th and a T2nd. In both years OSU hasn’t finished first, Street & Smith has been the most accurate in foreseeing their decline.

10. Illinois (-.9) – Throw out 2003’s disappointing 11^th place finish, when Illinois was predicted 8^th, the Illini has performed more or less to expectation. Lindy’s wins this one – missing Illinois’ finish by just 2 total spots over 4 years. This is great news for Illini fans; Lindy’s has Illinois higher than any other magazine, putting them 6^th. The magazine has been on the money 4 out of 5 years, and there’s no reason to think this year will be different.

11. Michigan State (-1.28) – Everyone this side of East Lansing probably saw this coming. But it wasn’t just last year’s disaster that did in the Spartans, finishing 10^th after being predicted 6^th. In 2005, they finished 9^th after being predicted 5^th, and in 2002, finished T8th after being predicted 3^rd. That’s a 60% disaster rate – not good.

So, after all this, which magazine actually does the trick the best? We added all the places by which a magazine missed predicting the final standings. For example, if a magazine predicted Illinois 9^th, and they finished 7^th, that’s 2 points. It’s like golf – low score wins.

1. The Sporting News (110) – Consistently the best of the bunch, finishing 2^nd, 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd and 2^nd in predicting the conference, TSN has Michigan winning it this year, and the Illini 8^th.

2. Lindy’s (115) – Lindy’s isn’t too far behind TSN, and despite underrating Indiana and Minnesota, they’ve been great at sorting out the middle of the often-crowded Big Ten pack.

3. Athlon (125) – Athlon was best last year, but has been maddeningly middle of the road before that, finishing 3^rd, 3^rd, 4^th and 4^th amongst the five magazines. With only one finish better than 3^rd in five years, this isn’t the magazine to bet on.
4. Phil Steele (127) – Ouch. Dead last of the five magazines three straight years, from 2003-2005. What’s killed Mr. Steele? An inability to figure out the Spartans, missing them by 4 places 4 of 5 years. Steele hasn’t been great with Iowa either, missing them by 4 places 3 times.
5. Street & Smith (129) – You never know what you’re going to get with the S & S gang. Best of the five twice, last or tied for last three times, its feast or famine with this outfit. Illini fans should hope it’s a famine year – Street & Smith has them predicted for 11^th place.

This article compiled with assistance from data provided by www.stassen.com.