(This article originally appeared on www.hokiehaven.com.)
After outlasting the Illini on Friday, Virginia Tech takes to the court in Columbus, Ohio again to battle another team from Illinois, Southern Illinois. Hokiehaven.com's Brian Golden takes a look ahead at the contest to see who will be headed to the Sweet Sixteen.
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (28-6, 15-3 MVC)
Big Wins: VA Tech 69-64, at Creighton 58-57, at Butler 68-64
Bad Losses: at Evansville 75-68
Two days after making one less mistake than Illinois, and surviving a madcap final few seconds, Virginia Tech battles Southern Illinois today for a spot, presumably versus Kansas, in the Sweet 16. The Salukis are, in some ways, the anti-VA Tech. SIU won the Missouri Valley the way Virginia Tech couldn't win the ACC: by bringing the lunchpail every single night, and dispatching the less threatening conference opponents. Of course, Drake and Illinois State are a far cry from FSU and NC State, but Southern Illinois' tough mental makeup is clear. When some began to doubt if this 2007 edition would be as special as some of its predecessors, the Salukis woke up, and began a winning streak that would last 11 games, and 6 weeks.
Back before SIU totally had it together, they faced a Virginia Tech team still looking for its identity on November 26. Southern Illinois took game one of the season series 69-64, in a contest that saw four Saluki starters go for double figures. Tech recovered from that loss, however, and I don't think the previous contest will be much help for either team. Each unit has grown into a more experienced, mature version of itself on that November day. That was a sloppy evening of basketball, with each team committing turnovers by the truck load and SIU earning a nice win for their tournament resume.
The Salukis often struggle to score, but the tallies are led by senior guard Jamaal Tatum at 14.9 ppg. Tatum's numbers aren't eye popping, but he has a habit of going off in big games, averaging 19.6 ppg in the team's three big second half games, including 21 in the MVC tourney against Creighton. Tatum is good, but he's far from the other only threat out there. Randal Falker and Matt Shaw, the dual Saluki big men, will cause problems for VA Tech by their mere presence in the game. Shaw, plagued by a troubling inconsistency most of the year, has begun to find stability going for 11 points three straight games, and giving the methodical Hokies yet one more guarantee. Everyone that plays for SIU can control the basketball and play defense, but the team is not especially deep. Only two bench players saw more than five minutes against Holy Cross, therefore, penetrating the lane to draw fouls on Falker and Shaw is imperative. Unlike almost everyone Tech has played lately, SIU doesn't have a bench that can do damage.
Controlling the tempo is the first key to a Hokie victory. Or, it may be more appropriate to say, releasing the tempo. SIU will try to control the game's pace, settling in to half court sets and draining shot clock. VA Tech needs to trap a little, gamble a little, allow Dowdell to score and distribute in transition. SIU will win a game in 50s. Tech wins a game where they can score 65 or more. This is tough, but I think both teams are right at 60, and Tech loses a Hokie heartbreaker. SIU BY 2.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
NCAA Tournament First Round Preview
(This article originally appeared on www.hokiehaven.com.)
Virginia Tech will take to the court Friday night against Illinois in their first NCAA appearance in 11 years. Will the Hokies be a quick one and out or will March Madness reign in Blacksburg a little longer? Find out as Hokiehaven.com's Brian Golden takes a look ahead.
ILLINOIS (23-11, 9-7 BIG 10)
Big Wins: Indiana, Michigan State, at Indiana
Bad Losses: at Michigan
From a national runner-up finish two years ago to a 12 seed that struggled mightily in the not-so-mighty Big Ten, the Illini will come to Columbus wounded warriors, over which a win will be expected for Seth Greenberg's Hokies. Bruce Weber's troops took two from Indiana and also nabbed the Spartans, but have absolutely no marquee wins on which to hang their hat, and probably should have been omitted from the field entirely in favor of Syracuse or Kansas State.
None of that will matter when the ball is tipped early Friday evening, however, as Illinois is strong in all the areas Virginia Tech is weak and will thrive off a Big Ten friendly crowd in Columbus. Illinois is led by big men Warren Carter and Shaun Pruitt. Neither of the two upperclassmen has 'wow' talent, but after paying their dues behind more talented players, both Carter and Pruitt logged a ton of quality minutes this year. Carter, in particular, was solid, scoring double figures the last 10 games, helping Illinois finish 8-2 down the stretch. Chester Frazier is an explosive guard, and his season stats tell a beguiling story. Most games, Frazier isn't counted on to score much, only seeing double figures twice since January 4th. But occasionally, as in a 21 point outing against Penn State or a 10-rebound haul at Indiana, Frazier gets rolling and proves very difficult to stop. He's the kind of young player that can feed off a positive crowd and hurt you in a few ways; the crowd will be there Friday, Tech has to make sure Frazier isn't.
Elsewhere, the Illini operate on a fairly successful guard by committee plan; Jamar Smith (22 min./game), Calvin Brock (19 mpg) and Trent Meachem (18 mpg) have all had many ups and downs this year. Virginia Tech's goal with the Illini guards must be to force Weber's hand with substitutions. Weber is a good situational game coach, and Tech has to hassle the guard corps until one member of the unit must be replaced due to inefficiency, not at the convenience of Weber.
This game will, and should be the game this year's Hokies are remembered by. The questions that have harangued this bunch all year are all in play Friday night: Can they maintain a high level of play against a team with inferior talent? Can they play strong enough post defense to subdue active big men? Most importantly: Can they win a big game when the big game is NOT against a big team?
The crowd will be hostile early, and I think Tech goes into the locker room behind. But experience and talent will win out, and I think it is the HOKIES BY 7, in a game that could go either way until the final two minutes.
Virginia Tech will take to the court Friday night against Illinois in their first NCAA appearance in 11 years. Will the Hokies be a quick one and out or will March Madness reign in Blacksburg a little longer? Find out as Hokiehaven.com's Brian Golden takes a look ahead.
ILLINOIS (23-11, 9-7 BIG 10)
Big Wins: Indiana, Michigan State, at Indiana
Bad Losses: at Michigan
From a national runner-up finish two years ago to a 12 seed that struggled mightily in the not-so-mighty Big Ten, the Illini will come to Columbus wounded warriors, over which a win will be expected for Seth Greenberg's Hokies. Bruce Weber's troops took two from Indiana and also nabbed the Spartans, but have absolutely no marquee wins on which to hang their hat, and probably should have been omitted from the field entirely in favor of Syracuse or Kansas State.
None of that will matter when the ball is tipped early Friday evening, however, as Illinois is strong in all the areas Virginia Tech is weak and will thrive off a Big Ten friendly crowd in Columbus. Illinois is led by big men Warren Carter and Shaun Pruitt. Neither of the two upperclassmen has 'wow' talent, but after paying their dues behind more talented players, both Carter and Pruitt logged a ton of quality minutes this year. Carter, in particular, was solid, scoring double figures the last 10 games, helping Illinois finish 8-2 down the stretch. Chester Frazier is an explosive guard, and his season stats tell a beguiling story. Most games, Frazier isn't counted on to score much, only seeing double figures twice since January 4th. But occasionally, as in a 21 point outing against Penn State or a 10-rebound haul at Indiana, Frazier gets rolling and proves very difficult to stop. He's the kind of young player that can feed off a positive crowd and hurt you in a few ways; the crowd will be there Friday, Tech has to make sure Frazier isn't.
Elsewhere, the Illini operate on a fairly successful guard by committee plan; Jamar Smith (22 min./game), Calvin Brock (19 mpg) and Trent Meachem (18 mpg) have all had many ups and downs this year. Virginia Tech's goal with the Illini guards must be to force Weber's hand with substitutions. Weber is a good situational game coach, and Tech has to hassle the guard corps until one member of the unit must be replaced due to inefficiency, not at the convenience of Weber.
This game will, and should be the game this year's Hokies are remembered by. The questions that have harangued this bunch all year are all in play Friday night: Can they maintain a high level of play against a team with inferior talent? Can they play strong enough post defense to subdue active big men? Most importantly: Can they win a big game when the big game is NOT against a big team?
The crowd will be hostile early, and I think Tech goes into the locker room behind. But experience and talent will win out, and I think it is the HOKIES BY 7, in a game that could go either way until the final two minutes.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
ACC Tournament Semifinals Preview
(This article originally appeared on www.hokiehaven.com.)
It's Day 3 of the ACC Tournament in Tampa, Fla. on Saturday with just four schools remaining in the hunt for the ACC title. Unlike the first day, most of the top seeds on Friday came out strong and pulled off the victory including the Virginia Tech Hokies. Come on in to see what is in store for the games on tap in the semifinals.
March 10 - Semifinals
1:30pm - North Carolina (26-6, 11-5) vs. Boston College (20-10, 10-6 ACC)
As the Tarheels dominated Friday, Boston College mounted a second half comeback to avert disaster, and vanquish the pesky Miami Hurricanes. Tyrese Rice, who we marked in this space yesterday as the contest's key player, went off for 32 points on six threes, helping Boston College advance to the semifinals against the top seeded Heels. Rice would do well to build on his track record against Carolina; the guard scored 20 in BC's five-point loss to UNC in February. The Heels are rested and ready, coming off an easy win over FSU that saw no one log more than 29 minutes. An already deep team gets deeper with that kind of balance. UNC's calling card Friday was shot selection and defense; the two elements combined to give them a 52% - 30% field goal advantage, a whopping total that, combined with a six-rebound margin, guarantees a win.
The Heels stopped Al Thornton, and will have a similar task with Boston College's Jared Dudley, although Dudley is a bit better and a slightly harder defensive assignment. In the team's first battle, a 77-72 Carolina win, Dudley scored 22, but only snatched three boards. This would be an acceptable outcome for North Carolina tomorrow. Boston College must force turnovers. Carolina gave the ball away 19 times to Florida State in an otherwise dominant outing, and ball control is priority number one for the Eagles. Boston College will need production from more than just Dudley, and getting an aggressive outing from youngin' John Oates would be a nice start. Oates had his finest performance of the year against Miami, and with BC's front line depleted, any contribution they get from Oates is a very welcome one.
How North Carolina Can Win: Keep rotating bodies and box out Dudley.
How Boston College Can Win: Tyrese Rice better keep shooting, and John Oates needs to eat the Wheaties.
What Will Happen: Often times, you'll see a team that survives a perilously close call loosen up and shock someone the next day. I don't think this will be one of those times. Carolina looked great Friday, and Boston College looks battered. Without the bodies in the paint, the Eagles just can't rebound with the Heels. HEELS BY 10.
4:00pm - NC State (17-14, 5-11) vs. Virginia Tech (21-10, 10-6)
We nailed the NC State upset over Virginia, even listing Gavin Grant's leadership as the key to the Wolfpack's success. Grant scored nine points in the last two minutes of the game, as North Carolina State exposed Virginia as a team with a gaudy home record, but almost no chance to win a big game on the road. The three big Packers scored 54 of the team's 77 points, and after listing Costner and Grant as the Most Important Players in games one and two, why not go with Ben McCauley in the semis? The sophomore has 36 points in two wins over Virginia Tech this year, and if he performs near the level Grant and Costner are, he will win the game, period.
Despite being the higher seed, Virginia Tech may very well be the underdog today. NC State won the first two meetings by a combined 36 points, and there's no reason to think the Hokies will be any better defending NC State's massive height advantage than they were in Raleigh or at Tech. A first glance at the box score of Tech's win over Wake doesn't provide many easy answers as to how the Hokies dominated the second half. But upon closer examination, a turnover margin of 18 (Wake) to just two for Virginia Tech proves the difference. A performance like that can't be expected every game, but extra possessions will be key in a contest where the Hokies are almost certain to be out rebounded. Citing Zabian Dowdell's need to control the game and Virginia Tech's need to box out and maintain competitiveness on the glass is getting old. So let's try this one – it would be awfully nice if someone other than the usual suspects proved a scoring threat. The Hokies aren't a very deep team when the chips are down, but Markus Sailes has seen his minutes increase near the end of his career, and has responded by knocking down a couple buckets, on his way to 14 points over the last three contests. If Sailes seeing the end of his Hokie career in sight can step up and at least force the Wolfpack defense to think about guarding someone other than Dowdell, Gordon or Vasallo, it could go a long way toward stretching the North Carolina State defense and minimizing their height advantage.
How North Carolina State Can Win: Do what they did twice this year by attacking the glass, bully the Hokies inside, own the paint and playing the game through Ben McCauley.
How Virginia Tech Can Win: Find a lesser known scoring option to stretch NC State's crowded post defense. Run and hope to tire out State since they've played an extra game in the past two days. Keep the rebounding margin within 3-4. Zabian Dowdell, feel free to hit some big shots, as well.
What Will Happen: Virginia Tech has a matchup problem with State, and based on prior performance it's a reach to think Virginia Tech suddenly plays great post defense. NC STATE BY 8.
It's Day 3 of the ACC Tournament in Tampa, Fla. on Saturday with just four schools remaining in the hunt for the ACC title. Unlike the first day, most of the top seeds on Friday came out strong and pulled off the victory including the Virginia Tech Hokies. Come on in to see what is in store for the games on tap in the semifinals.
March 10 - Semifinals
1:30pm - North Carolina (26-6, 11-5) vs. Boston College (20-10, 10-6 ACC)
As the Tarheels dominated Friday, Boston College mounted a second half comeback to avert disaster, and vanquish the pesky Miami Hurricanes. Tyrese Rice, who we marked in this space yesterday as the contest's key player, went off for 32 points on six threes, helping Boston College advance to the semifinals against the top seeded Heels. Rice would do well to build on his track record against Carolina; the guard scored 20 in BC's five-point loss to UNC in February. The Heels are rested and ready, coming off an easy win over FSU that saw no one log more than 29 minutes. An already deep team gets deeper with that kind of balance. UNC's calling card Friday was shot selection and defense; the two elements combined to give them a 52% - 30% field goal advantage, a whopping total that, combined with a six-rebound margin, guarantees a win.
The Heels stopped Al Thornton, and will have a similar task with Boston College's Jared Dudley, although Dudley is a bit better and a slightly harder defensive assignment. In the team's first battle, a 77-72 Carolina win, Dudley scored 22, but only snatched three boards. This would be an acceptable outcome for North Carolina tomorrow. Boston College must force turnovers. Carolina gave the ball away 19 times to Florida State in an otherwise dominant outing, and ball control is priority number one for the Eagles. Boston College will need production from more than just Dudley, and getting an aggressive outing from youngin' John Oates would be a nice start. Oates had his finest performance of the year against Miami, and with BC's front line depleted, any contribution they get from Oates is a very welcome one.
How North Carolina Can Win: Keep rotating bodies and box out Dudley.
How Boston College Can Win: Tyrese Rice better keep shooting, and John Oates needs to eat the Wheaties.
What Will Happen: Often times, you'll see a team that survives a perilously close call loosen up and shock someone the next day. I don't think this will be one of those times. Carolina looked great Friday, and Boston College looks battered. Without the bodies in the paint, the Eagles just can't rebound with the Heels. HEELS BY 10.
4:00pm - NC State (17-14, 5-11) vs. Virginia Tech (21-10, 10-6)
We nailed the NC State upset over Virginia, even listing Gavin Grant's leadership as the key to the Wolfpack's success. Grant scored nine points in the last two minutes of the game, as North Carolina State exposed Virginia as a team with a gaudy home record, but almost no chance to win a big game on the road. The three big Packers scored 54 of the team's 77 points, and after listing Costner and Grant as the Most Important Players in games one and two, why not go with Ben McCauley in the semis? The sophomore has 36 points in two wins over Virginia Tech this year, and if he performs near the level Grant and Costner are, he will win the game, period.
Despite being the higher seed, Virginia Tech may very well be the underdog today. NC State won the first two meetings by a combined 36 points, and there's no reason to think the Hokies will be any better defending NC State's massive height advantage than they were in Raleigh or at Tech. A first glance at the box score of Tech's win over Wake doesn't provide many easy answers as to how the Hokies dominated the second half. But upon closer examination, a turnover margin of 18 (Wake) to just two for Virginia Tech proves the difference. A performance like that can't be expected every game, but extra possessions will be key in a contest where the Hokies are almost certain to be out rebounded. Citing Zabian Dowdell's need to control the game and Virginia Tech's need to box out and maintain competitiveness on the glass is getting old. So let's try this one – it would be awfully nice if someone other than the usual suspects proved a scoring threat. The Hokies aren't a very deep team when the chips are down, but Markus Sailes has seen his minutes increase near the end of his career, and has responded by knocking down a couple buckets, on his way to 14 points over the last three contests. If Sailes seeing the end of his Hokie career in sight can step up and at least force the Wolfpack defense to think about guarding someone other than Dowdell, Gordon or Vasallo, it could go a long way toward stretching the North Carolina State defense and minimizing their height advantage.
How North Carolina State Can Win: Do what they did twice this year by attacking the glass, bully the Hokies inside, own the paint and playing the game through Ben McCauley.
How Virginia Tech Can Win: Find a lesser known scoring option to stretch NC State's crowded post defense. Run and hope to tire out State since they've played an extra game in the past two days. Keep the rebounding margin within 3-4. Zabian Dowdell, feel free to hit some big shots, as well.
What Will Happen: Virginia Tech has a matchup problem with State, and based on prior performance it's a reach to think Virginia Tech suddenly plays great post defense. NC STATE BY 8.
Friday, March 09, 2007
ACC Tournament Quarterfinal Preview
(This article originally appeared on www.hokiehaven.com.)
ACC action continues on Friday with four more games from the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa, Fla. After a day of upsets, the conference's top teams will take to the court including Virginia Tech. Come on in to see what is in store for the games on tap in the quarterfinals.
March 9 – Quarterfinals
12:00pm - North Carolina (25-6, 11-5 ACC) vs. Florida State (20-11, 7-9)
When the NBA drafts Al Thornton in June, his family is going to point to this weekend as one that helped make him a millionaire. The Seminole star, coming off a 25 point, 11 rebound performance against Clemson, is poised for a breakout performance if he can get on a roll against the Heels. In the first matchup between these squads, a 26 point UNC victory in January, Thornton exploded for 29 and 12, the first of his six 20/10 outings in ACC play this year. The 6-foot-8 senior has been unreal down the stretch; four of his last five outings have seen him score 23 points or more, three of those five have seen him snatch 11 rebounds. As I wrote in this space yesterday, Thornton is the kind of player that flies under the national radar all year until exploding in a postseason tournament. If the Heels don't defend him, or if Tyler Hansbrough is gun shy at all in attacking the glass, Thornton can win the game for FSU. The Heels come in after having backed into an ACC title no one really seemed to want. Despite dropping contests to Maryland and Georgia Tech, Carolina got help elsewhere to earn the tourney's #1 seed. No matter what happens in this tournament or the NCAAs, North Carolina will probably start 2007-08 as the nation's top ranked squad; their top four scorers are sophomores and younger, and underclassmen see about 85% of the minutes doled out by Roy Williams. This may not be the most telling stat, but UNC is 0-5 in ACC games where they give up 80 points or more. When they hold opponents to 80 or less, they're 11-0. Summary: you've got to score points, because like it or not, they're going to get theirs. The only chance against a team this deep and athletic is to attack, attack, attack.
How FSU Can Win: Al Thornton, this is your future calling.
How UNC Can Win: Shuttle all the bodies they can, and try to make the FSU star pick up some early fouls, neutralizing his aggressiveness.
What Will Happen: I said it yesterday, so I've got to stick by it. Thornton follows a gutsy performance with the game of his life, and moves up another five spots in the NBA Draft. Hansbrough will respond strongly from the Duke injury, but Thornton will shine, and FSU will play its way in to the NCAAs. NOLES BY 4.
2:00pm - Boston College (19-10, 10-6) vs. Miami (12-19, 4-12)
"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose…" The men of the Ibis were free as a bird yesterday, and played like it, stopping Maryland's seven-game winning streak in its tracks, and earning a quarterfinal matchup with fellow Big East émigré, Boston College. Miami didn't pass well (four assists), but crushed Maryland on the glass, 39-30, and got 17 points from Jack McClinton to beat a Terp team that shot poorly and rebounded worse. Now, the foe is Boston College, a team responsible for beating Miami twice already this year. Jared Dudley battered the 'Canes' weak front line in the schools' second meeting, a seven point Boston College win in February. Dudley's fresh legs against a tired and undermanned big-man crew are a really toxic recipe for Miami. The San Diego born senior has battered weaker opponents this year on his way to ACC Player of the Year honors. If the task were to just stop Dudley, Miami would be in enough trouble. But Tyrese Rice has also crushed the 'Canes this year, for 17 and 21 points, and when Dudley and Rice are both clicking, BC wins. Big.
How Miami Can Win: Same recipe as yesterday. Chuck away. Miami isn't going to out execute a fresh BC, but they might out shoot them.
How BC Can Win: Keep Tyrese Rice involved. If he is present and controlling his area of the floor, Miami just can't keep up defensively.
What Will Happen: BC flexes its muscles, and builds a big halftime lead en route to a fairly easy victory. Miami will shoot its way in to contention at some point in the second half, but the final score won't be close. EAGLES BY 13.
7:00pm - Virginia (20-9) vs. NC State (16-14, 5-11)
The Cavs are certainly the least known quantity among the teams receiving byes. Despite tying for the top record in the conference, Virginia won just three road games in ACC play, and didn't do much to distinguish themselves away from the JPJ. The Hoos earned their conference status, to be sure, but don't have the experience or the road resume to be counted on for a deep tourney run. NC State, on the other hand, is predictable as death and taxes, a team that will bang and mash with their three underclassmen posts, and is good enough to win the NIT if they grab an invite. Yesterday, we pegged Brandon Costner as the Pack's key to victory against Duke, and the kid delivered, scoring 30 and hauling in seven rebounds. Today it is Gavin Grant. Coming off Thursday's "upset", NC State needs temerity, not vitality, and State's oldest star is the ideal candidate to provide leadership. Additionally, Grant averaged just 11 and four in the Wolfpack's two early season losses to Virginia, and the key to their success tomorrow is having the three headed monster of Costner, Grant and McCauley all wreaking havoc. Engin Atsur and Courtney Fells are the NC State guards; both grab lots of minutes, and can score when necessary, but if either of the two is State's key offensive player, you can pencil in Virginia to the semifinals.
How Virginia Can Win: Keep the rebounding margin within sight, and take care of the basketball.
How NC State Can Win: Attack Cavalier center Jason Cain. If Cain picks up fouls, McCauley, Grant and Costner will go almost unchecked in the middle, and the upset will be sprung.
What Will Happen: It is easy to say this game will be a contrast in styles. NC State's best three players are 6-foot-8 and bigger. Everyone that does damage for the Cavs is a little guy. Despite the two earlier losses, I like this NC State team a lot, and I think they'll dominate the offensive class and spring the day's second upset. PACK BY 6.
9:30pm - Wake Forest (15-15, 5-11) vs. Virginia Tech (20-10, 10-6)
Who needs 4th of July with the fireworks the Deacs light off Thursday night? Capping a wild day of tourney action, Wake scored the fourth-straight upset win in preliminary action by shooting 64% from the field and (this is not a misprint) 69.6% from three point range. That's 16-23, for those of you with a scorecard, and it's safe to say that if Wake repeats that performance, Virginia Tech has almost no chance. So, how does a team shoot threes like they're trying layups and not blow the other squad out of the gym? Well, getting just 24 rebounds while committing 26 turnovers in 50 minutes is a good start. It's safe to say that if Wake repeats that performance, they have almost no chance. So, which Wake shows up? It will definitely be a tired Deacon squad, as Wake's three big guns all tallied 44 minutes or more into early Friday morning. Ideally, the Wake squad Tech sees today won't present as tight a battle as the one that came to Cassell and just missed in a three point Tech win back in December. That game feels downright prehistoric in hindsight, and hopefully shooting performances like the two of 13 gem from Zabian Dowdell will be extinct come tourney time.
How Wake Can Win: Pound the ball inside and attack the glass. Also, shooting 70% from three-land would help.
How Tech Can Win: Run a little more than they usually do. You're facing an already weak team coming off a marathon battle that encroached past midnight. The more the Hokies make Wake move their legs, the more likely the Deacons are to foul, get in bad position, and prove vulnerable on defense.
What Will Happen: Visser is a scary presence given Tech's record against big guys this year, but on tired feet, he won't be enough to cause the Hokies big problems. TECH BY 9.
ACC action continues on Friday with four more games from the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa, Fla. After a day of upsets, the conference's top teams will take to the court including Virginia Tech. Come on in to see what is in store for the games on tap in the quarterfinals.
March 9 – Quarterfinals
12:00pm - North Carolina (25-6, 11-5 ACC) vs. Florida State (20-11, 7-9)
When the NBA drafts Al Thornton in June, his family is going to point to this weekend as one that helped make him a millionaire. The Seminole star, coming off a 25 point, 11 rebound performance against Clemson, is poised for a breakout performance if he can get on a roll against the Heels. In the first matchup between these squads, a 26 point UNC victory in January, Thornton exploded for 29 and 12, the first of his six 20/10 outings in ACC play this year. The 6-foot-8 senior has been unreal down the stretch; four of his last five outings have seen him score 23 points or more, three of those five have seen him snatch 11 rebounds. As I wrote in this space yesterday, Thornton is the kind of player that flies under the national radar all year until exploding in a postseason tournament. If the Heels don't defend him, or if Tyler Hansbrough is gun shy at all in attacking the glass, Thornton can win the game for FSU. The Heels come in after having backed into an ACC title no one really seemed to want. Despite dropping contests to Maryland and Georgia Tech, Carolina got help elsewhere to earn the tourney's #1 seed. No matter what happens in this tournament or the NCAAs, North Carolina will probably start 2007-08 as the nation's top ranked squad; their top four scorers are sophomores and younger, and underclassmen see about 85% of the minutes doled out by Roy Williams. This may not be the most telling stat, but UNC is 0-5 in ACC games where they give up 80 points or more. When they hold opponents to 80 or less, they're 11-0. Summary: you've got to score points, because like it or not, they're going to get theirs. The only chance against a team this deep and athletic is to attack, attack, attack.
How FSU Can Win: Al Thornton, this is your future calling.
How UNC Can Win: Shuttle all the bodies they can, and try to make the FSU star pick up some early fouls, neutralizing his aggressiveness.
What Will Happen: I said it yesterday, so I've got to stick by it. Thornton follows a gutsy performance with the game of his life, and moves up another five spots in the NBA Draft. Hansbrough will respond strongly from the Duke injury, but Thornton will shine, and FSU will play its way in to the NCAAs. NOLES BY 4.
2:00pm - Boston College (19-10, 10-6) vs. Miami (12-19, 4-12)
"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose…" The men of the Ibis were free as a bird yesterday, and played like it, stopping Maryland's seven-game winning streak in its tracks, and earning a quarterfinal matchup with fellow Big East émigré, Boston College. Miami didn't pass well (four assists), but crushed Maryland on the glass, 39-30, and got 17 points from Jack McClinton to beat a Terp team that shot poorly and rebounded worse. Now, the foe is Boston College, a team responsible for beating Miami twice already this year. Jared Dudley battered the 'Canes' weak front line in the schools' second meeting, a seven point Boston College win in February. Dudley's fresh legs against a tired and undermanned big-man crew are a really toxic recipe for Miami. The San Diego born senior has battered weaker opponents this year on his way to ACC Player of the Year honors. If the task were to just stop Dudley, Miami would be in enough trouble. But Tyrese Rice has also crushed the 'Canes this year, for 17 and 21 points, and when Dudley and Rice are both clicking, BC wins. Big.
How Miami Can Win: Same recipe as yesterday. Chuck away. Miami isn't going to out execute a fresh BC, but they might out shoot them.
How BC Can Win: Keep Tyrese Rice involved. If he is present and controlling his area of the floor, Miami just can't keep up defensively.
What Will Happen: BC flexes its muscles, and builds a big halftime lead en route to a fairly easy victory. Miami will shoot its way in to contention at some point in the second half, but the final score won't be close. EAGLES BY 13.
7:00pm - Virginia (20-9) vs. NC State (16-14, 5-11)
The Cavs are certainly the least known quantity among the teams receiving byes. Despite tying for the top record in the conference, Virginia won just three road games in ACC play, and didn't do much to distinguish themselves away from the JPJ. The Hoos earned their conference status, to be sure, but don't have the experience or the road resume to be counted on for a deep tourney run. NC State, on the other hand, is predictable as death and taxes, a team that will bang and mash with their three underclassmen posts, and is good enough to win the NIT if they grab an invite. Yesterday, we pegged Brandon Costner as the Pack's key to victory against Duke, and the kid delivered, scoring 30 and hauling in seven rebounds. Today it is Gavin Grant. Coming off Thursday's "upset", NC State needs temerity, not vitality, and State's oldest star is the ideal candidate to provide leadership. Additionally, Grant averaged just 11 and four in the Wolfpack's two early season losses to Virginia, and the key to their success tomorrow is having the three headed monster of Costner, Grant and McCauley all wreaking havoc. Engin Atsur and Courtney Fells are the NC State guards; both grab lots of minutes, and can score when necessary, but if either of the two is State's key offensive player, you can pencil in Virginia to the semifinals.
How Virginia Can Win: Keep the rebounding margin within sight, and take care of the basketball.
How NC State Can Win: Attack Cavalier center Jason Cain. If Cain picks up fouls, McCauley, Grant and Costner will go almost unchecked in the middle, and the upset will be sprung.
What Will Happen: It is easy to say this game will be a contrast in styles. NC State's best three players are 6-foot-8 and bigger. Everyone that does damage for the Cavs is a little guy. Despite the two earlier losses, I like this NC State team a lot, and I think they'll dominate the offensive class and spring the day's second upset. PACK BY 6.
9:30pm - Wake Forest (15-15, 5-11) vs. Virginia Tech (20-10, 10-6)
Who needs 4th of July with the fireworks the Deacs light off Thursday night? Capping a wild day of tourney action, Wake scored the fourth-straight upset win in preliminary action by shooting 64% from the field and (this is not a misprint) 69.6% from three point range. That's 16-23, for those of you with a scorecard, and it's safe to say that if Wake repeats that performance, Virginia Tech has almost no chance. So, how does a team shoot threes like they're trying layups and not blow the other squad out of the gym? Well, getting just 24 rebounds while committing 26 turnovers in 50 minutes is a good start. It's safe to say that if Wake repeats that performance, they have almost no chance. So, which Wake shows up? It will definitely be a tired Deacon squad, as Wake's three big guns all tallied 44 minutes or more into early Friday morning. Ideally, the Wake squad Tech sees today won't present as tight a battle as the one that came to Cassell and just missed in a three point Tech win back in December. That game feels downright prehistoric in hindsight, and hopefully shooting performances like the two of 13 gem from Zabian Dowdell will be extinct come tourney time.
How Wake Can Win: Pound the ball inside and attack the glass. Also, shooting 70% from three-land would help.
How Tech Can Win: Run a little more than they usually do. You're facing an already weak team coming off a marathon battle that encroached past midnight. The more the Hokies make Wake move their legs, the more likely the Deacons are to foul, get in bad position, and prove vulnerable on defense.
What Will Happen: Visser is a scary presence given Tech's record against big guys this year, but on tired feet, he won't be enough to cause the Hokies big problems. TECH BY 9.
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
ACC Tournament First-Round Preview
(This article appeared originally on www.hokiehaven.com.)
Always a spectacle to watch, the highly anticipated ACC tournament kicks off Thursday in Tampa, Fla. Some of the nation's hottest teams will play in the opening round including the red hot Maryland Terrapins. Come on in to see what's in store for the game's tomorrow.
March 8 – FIRST ROUND
12:00pm - Clemson (21-9, 7-9 ACC) vs. Florida State (19-11, 7-9 ACC)
Welcome to the ACC, where a team that began the year 17-0 ends up the #8 seed in the conference tournament. Clemson finished the year winning just four of their last 13, but a stunning win in Blacksburg on Hokie Senior Day has given the Tiger faithful a glimmer of hope that a tourney run may be in the offing. Florida State's record isn't quite as good, but they have been by far the more solid team throughout the season, and are probably closer to making the field of 65 than the orange tigers. Florida State might be in with a win Thursday, and would definitely be in with a victory over North Carolina. Clemson might be in if they advance to the ACC finals, but anything short of winning the tournament will likely send them to the NIT. Clemson won both of the regular season contests between the squads, taking a 68-66 decision in Tallahassee, and sealing the sweep 71-58 back in the Palmetto State.
How Clemson Can Win: Clemson's two wins over the 'Noles came courtesy of plenty of extra possessions. In the two battles, FSU committed 35 turnovers and Clemson blocked 12 shots. Clemson has to control the basketball and benefit from the extra looks at the hoop.
How FSU Can Win: Someone else has to score. Al Thornton has gone for 21 and 19 points in the first two games, and only two other players in those two games have scored more than nine. That's not good. And in the second contest, Thornton was only 4-14 from the field, but no one else could make an impact. Guards Isaiah Swann and Jason Rich have to take open shots, and make them.
Who Will Win: Florida State has been cruising under the radar all year, and has a chance to be very special in Tampa. Al Thornton is the best ACC player south of Tobacco Road, and just seems like the type of player to have a couple big post season tournaments, and raise his pro stock considerably. Throw in the FSU-friendly crowd, and its NOLES BY 7.
2:00 pm – Maryland (24-7, 10-6 ACC) vs. Miami (11-19, 4-12 ACC)
In a year where both Cavs and Hokies didn't have major resurgences, Gary Williams would be in line for conference coaching honors. Despite that, he has led Maryland to a 7-game season-ending winning streak that has brought the Terps from the unfriendly side of the bubble to a possible top 4-5 seed. D.J. Strawberry and Mike Jones are experienced guards with size, and they'll make this team one of the most genuinely scary outs in the NCAAs. Back in January, Maryland lost, 63-58, to this Miami team, in an ugly contest where the Terps shot just 22%. Yikes. You probably won't see that kind of outing again, especially against a Hurricane unit surrendering 82 points a game since a February 21st upset of Virginia. And yet, is there another 11-win team in America with 4 wins as credible as at Evansville, Georgia Tech, at Maryland and Virginia? Miami has beaten some quality teams this year, and if Anthony Harris heats up (15 points per game in the 'Canes three ACC wins), Miami could win the game.
How Maryland Can Win: Keep the ball in your guards' hands. With Clemente out for the 'Canes, Maryland's guards, already a strength, will be in position to yield their superiority even more strongly.
How Miami Can Win: Fire, fire away. Jack McClinton is not afraid to shoot the rock, and the bravery has been on full display in recent 21 and 31 point outings to close the year. These wounded 'Canes can't hang with Maryland in a slow-down, execute, tactical battle. They've got to bomb away, hope one of the little guys gets hot, and feed off the no-one-believes in us energy.
What Will Happen: If the Terps shoot well, they should win handily. Execution, shot clock management, and control are their keys to the game. Letting the dangerous Canes hang around too long is a mistake. TERPS BY 9.
7:00 pm – Duke (22-9, 8-8 ACC) vs. NC State (15-14, 5-11 ACC)
Duke, #1 NCAA seed almost every year since 1998, are a seven seed in the ACC. Ain't it nice? Some folks are still touting the Dukies as a top 4-5 seed in the Dance, but they didn't beat ACC front runners UNC, Virginia, Virginia Tech or Maryland this year. One team they did beat is NC State, who is fighting for a winning season, although it will likely need two wins to make the NIT. The Devils rode 13 steals and a 5-rebound edge to a 79-56 victory in January. This tournament, and the one that starts next week, are the first big tests for floor general Greg Paulus and Josh McRoberts, to see if they'll be the "next great Dukies". Paulus hasn't impressed much, dishing only 3.8 assists on the year. If his shot stays true, however (46% 3P on the year), he can do some damage, and sneak up on some teams late. McRoberts is the key cat in this battle, however, as he fights against NC State's biggest, and only strength: size. The Pack gets 46 points a night combined from three players over 6-foot-8, Gavin Grant, Ben McCauley, and Brandon Costner. Grant is the most experienced of the three, but Costner is a future ACC Player of the Year. A tell-tale sign for how NC State will perform is how well Costner rebounds. Get this stat: since January 24, when Costner grabs seven boards or less, the Pack is 1-7. When he's in double digits, they're 3-0. McRoberts will leave the freshman un-boxed out at his peril.
How Duke Can Win: Box out Brandon Costner. Listen to Coach K.
How NC State Can Win: Attack the glass mercilessly, and take the game to McRoberts. A foul on the big guy is worth at least a couple baskets down the line.
What Will Happen: NC State matches up great with Duke, despite the early season hiccup. Duke still probably wins, but it won't be overwhelming, and Virginia will finish them off tomorrow. DUKE BY 4.
9:30 pm – Georgia Tech (20-10, 8-8 ACC) vs. Wake Forest (14-15, 5-11 ACC)
Tech is probably in after finishing the regular season with a victory over Boston College, but a win against Wake would seal the deal for Paul Hewitt's team. Wake is…well, pride is important, too. The Jackets are kind of a not-quite-as-talented version of last year's Florida Gators. They don't have a senior scoring more than five points a game, and they've got talent, athleticism and moxie. If Georgia Tech can control the basketball better than they did at weak parts of this season, they could roll into the Sweet Sixteen. The season series between these two squads was a split, with Wake defending the home court in January behind an 8-rebound advantage, and 26 and nine from senior center Kyle Visser. Wake hasn't won a game in 2007 where Visser didn't have at least 14 points and six boards.
How Georgia Tech Can Win: Drawing fouls on the big man and converting foul shots would be a great start. Not allowing strings of sloppy ball control and 3-4 straight turnovers would seal it.
How Wake Can Win: Try to make the Jackets play. Extend the shot clock, throw some press, force Tech to execute. The Deacons have no chance to out-athleticize, or even probably out-shoot Georgia Tech if the Jackets are hot. Forcing the young, often sloppy team to execute presents a recipe for an upset.
What Will Happen: The Yellow Jackets produce an impressive performance, and provide one mortal lock for tomorrow's slate of games: At 9:00, Tech will win. GEORGIA TECH BY 14.
Always a spectacle to watch, the highly anticipated ACC tournament kicks off Thursday in Tampa, Fla. Some of the nation's hottest teams will play in the opening round including the red hot Maryland Terrapins. Come on in to see what's in store for the game's tomorrow.
March 8 – FIRST ROUND
12:00pm - Clemson (21-9, 7-9 ACC) vs. Florida State (19-11, 7-9 ACC)
Welcome to the ACC, where a team that began the year 17-0 ends up the #8 seed in the conference tournament. Clemson finished the year winning just four of their last 13, but a stunning win in Blacksburg on Hokie Senior Day has given the Tiger faithful a glimmer of hope that a tourney run may be in the offing. Florida State's record isn't quite as good, but they have been by far the more solid team throughout the season, and are probably closer to making the field of 65 than the orange tigers. Florida State might be in with a win Thursday, and would definitely be in with a victory over North Carolina. Clemson might be in if they advance to the ACC finals, but anything short of winning the tournament will likely send them to the NIT. Clemson won both of the regular season contests between the squads, taking a 68-66 decision in Tallahassee, and sealing the sweep 71-58 back in the Palmetto State.
How Clemson Can Win: Clemson's two wins over the 'Noles came courtesy of plenty of extra possessions. In the two battles, FSU committed 35 turnovers and Clemson blocked 12 shots. Clemson has to control the basketball and benefit from the extra looks at the hoop.
How FSU Can Win: Someone else has to score. Al Thornton has gone for 21 and 19 points in the first two games, and only two other players in those two games have scored more than nine. That's not good. And in the second contest, Thornton was only 4-14 from the field, but no one else could make an impact. Guards Isaiah Swann and Jason Rich have to take open shots, and make them.
Who Will Win: Florida State has been cruising under the radar all year, and has a chance to be very special in Tampa. Al Thornton is the best ACC player south of Tobacco Road, and just seems like the type of player to have a couple big post season tournaments, and raise his pro stock considerably. Throw in the FSU-friendly crowd, and its NOLES BY 7.
2:00 pm – Maryland (24-7, 10-6 ACC) vs. Miami (11-19, 4-12 ACC)
In a year where both Cavs and Hokies didn't have major resurgences, Gary Williams would be in line for conference coaching honors. Despite that, he has led Maryland to a 7-game season-ending winning streak that has brought the Terps from the unfriendly side of the bubble to a possible top 4-5 seed. D.J. Strawberry and Mike Jones are experienced guards with size, and they'll make this team one of the most genuinely scary outs in the NCAAs. Back in January, Maryland lost, 63-58, to this Miami team, in an ugly contest where the Terps shot just 22%. Yikes. You probably won't see that kind of outing again, especially against a Hurricane unit surrendering 82 points a game since a February 21st upset of Virginia. And yet, is there another 11-win team in America with 4 wins as credible as at Evansville, Georgia Tech, at Maryland and Virginia? Miami has beaten some quality teams this year, and if Anthony Harris heats up (15 points per game in the 'Canes three ACC wins), Miami could win the game.
How Maryland Can Win: Keep the ball in your guards' hands. With Clemente out for the 'Canes, Maryland's guards, already a strength, will be in position to yield their superiority even more strongly.
How Miami Can Win: Fire, fire away. Jack McClinton is not afraid to shoot the rock, and the bravery has been on full display in recent 21 and 31 point outings to close the year. These wounded 'Canes can't hang with Maryland in a slow-down, execute, tactical battle. They've got to bomb away, hope one of the little guys gets hot, and feed off the no-one-believes in us energy.
What Will Happen: If the Terps shoot well, they should win handily. Execution, shot clock management, and control are their keys to the game. Letting the dangerous Canes hang around too long is a mistake. TERPS BY 9.
7:00 pm – Duke (22-9, 8-8 ACC) vs. NC State (15-14, 5-11 ACC)
Duke, #1 NCAA seed almost every year since 1998, are a seven seed in the ACC. Ain't it nice? Some folks are still touting the Dukies as a top 4-5 seed in the Dance, but they didn't beat ACC front runners UNC, Virginia, Virginia Tech or Maryland this year. One team they did beat is NC State, who is fighting for a winning season, although it will likely need two wins to make the NIT. The Devils rode 13 steals and a 5-rebound edge to a 79-56 victory in January. This tournament, and the one that starts next week, are the first big tests for floor general Greg Paulus and Josh McRoberts, to see if they'll be the "next great Dukies". Paulus hasn't impressed much, dishing only 3.8 assists on the year. If his shot stays true, however (46% 3P on the year), he can do some damage, and sneak up on some teams late. McRoberts is the key cat in this battle, however, as he fights against NC State's biggest, and only strength: size. The Pack gets 46 points a night combined from three players over 6-foot-8, Gavin Grant, Ben McCauley, and Brandon Costner. Grant is the most experienced of the three, but Costner is a future ACC Player of the Year. A tell-tale sign for how NC State will perform is how well Costner rebounds. Get this stat: since January 24, when Costner grabs seven boards or less, the Pack is 1-7. When he's in double digits, they're 3-0. McRoberts will leave the freshman un-boxed out at his peril.
How Duke Can Win: Box out Brandon Costner. Listen to Coach K.
How NC State Can Win: Attack the glass mercilessly, and take the game to McRoberts. A foul on the big guy is worth at least a couple baskets down the line.
What Will Happen: NC State matches up great with Duke, despite the early season hiccup. Duke still probably wins, but it won't be overwhelming, and Virginia will finish them off tomorrow. DUKE BY 4.
9:30 pm – Georgia Tech (20-10, 8-8 ACC) vs. Wake Forest (14-15, 5-11 ACC)
Tech is probably in after finishing the regular season with a victory over Boston College, but a win against Wake would seal the deal for Paul Hewitt's team. Wake is…well, pride is important, too. The Jackets are kind of a not-quite-as-talented version of last year's Florida Gators. They don't have a senior scoring more than five points a game, and they've got talent, athleticism and moxie. If Georgia Tech can control the basketball better than they did at weak parts of this season, they could roll into the Sweet Sixteen. The season series between these two squads was a split, with Wake defending the home court in January behind an 8-rebound advantage, and 26 and nine from senior center Kyle Visser. Wake hasn't won a game in 2007 where Visser didn't have at least 14 points and six boards.
How Georgia Tech Can Win: Drawing fouls on the big man and converting foul shots would be a great start. Not allowing strings of sloppy ball control and 3-4 straight turnovers would seal it.
How Wake Can Win: Try to make the Jackets play. Extend the shot clock, throw some press, force Tech to execute. The Deacons have no chance to out-athleticize, or even probably out-shoot Georgia Tech if the Jackets are hot. Forcing the young, often sloppy team to execute presents a recipe for an upset.
What Will Happen: The Yellow Jackets produce an impressive performance, and provide one mortal lock for tomorrow's slate of games: At 9:00, Tech will win. GEORGIA TECH BY 14.
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