ACC Tournament Quarterfinal Preview

(This article originally appeared on www.hokiehaven.com.)

ACC action continues on Friday with four more games from the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa, Fla. After a day of upsets, the conference's top teams will take to the court including Virginia Tech. Come on in to see what is in store for the games on tap in the quarterfinals.

March 9 – Quarterfinals

12:00pm - North Carolina (25-6, 11-5 ACC) vs. Florida State (20-11, 7-9)

When the NBA drafts Al Thornton in June, his family is going to point to this weekend as one that helped make him a millionaire. The Seminole star, coming off a 25 point, 11 rebound performance against Clemson, is poised for a breakout performance if he can get on a roll against the Heels. In the first matchup between these squads, a 26 point UNC victory in January, Thornton exploded for 29 and 12, the first of his six 20/10 outings in ACC play this year. The 6-foot-8 senior has been unreal down the stretch; four of his last five outings have seen him score 23 points or more, three of those five have seen him snatch 11 rebounds. As I wrote in this space yesterday, Thornton is the kind of player that flies under the national radar all year until exploding in a postseason tournament. If the Heels don't defend him, or if Tyler Hansbrough is gun shy at all in attacking the glass, Thornton can win the game for FSU. The Heels come in after having backed into an ACC title no one really seemed to want. Despite dropping contests to Maryland and Georgia Tech, Carolina got help elsewhere to earn the tourney's #1 seed. No matter what happens in this tournament or the NCAAs, North Carolina will probably start 2007-08 as the nation's top ranked squad; their top four scorers are sophomores and younger, and underclassmen see about 85% of the minutes doled out by Roy Williams. This may not be the most telling stat, but UNC is 0-5 in ACC games where they give up 80 points or more. When they hold opponents to 80 or less, they're 11-0. Summary: you've got to score points, because like it or not, they're going to get theirs. The only chance against a team this deep and athletic is to attack, attack, attack.

How FSU Can Win: Al Thornton, this is your future calling.

How UNC Can Win: Shuttle all the bodies they can, and try to make the FSU star pick up some early fouls, neutralizing his aggressiveness.

What Will Happen: I said it yesterday, so I've got to stick by it. Thornton follows a gutsy performance with the game of his life, and moves up another five spots in the NBA Draft. Hansbrough will respond strongly from the Duke injury, but Thornton will shine, and FSU will play its way in to the NCAAs. NOLES BY 4.

2:00pm - Boston College (19-10, 10-6) vs. Miami (12-19, 4-12)

"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose…" The men of the Ibis were free as a bird yesterday, and played like it, stopping Maryland's seven-game winning streak in its tracks, and earning a quarterfinal matchup with fellow Big East émigré, Boston College. Miami didn't pass well (four assists), but crushed Maryland on the glass, 39-30, and got 17 points from Jack McClinton to beat a Terp team that shot poorly and rebounded worse. Now, the foe is Boston College, a team responsible for beating Miami twice already this year. Jared Dudley battered the 'Canes' weak front line in the schools' second meeting, a seven point Boston College win in February. Dudley's fresh legs against a tired and undermanned big-man crew are a really toxic recipe for Miami. The San Diego born senior has battered weaker opponents this year on his way to ACC Player of the Year honors. If the task were to just stop Dudley, Miami would be in enough trouble. But Tyrese Rice has also crushed the 'Canes this year, for 17 and 21 points, and when Dudley and Rice are both clicking, BC wins. Big.

How Miami Can Win: Same recipe as yesterday. Chuck away. Miami isn't going to out execute a fresh BC, but they might out shoot them.

How BC Can Win: Keep Tyrese Rice involved. If he is present and controlling his area of the floor, Miami just can't keep up defensively.

What Will Happen: BC flexes its muscles, and builds a big halftime lead en route to a fairly easy victory. Miami will shoot its way in to contention at some point in the second half, but the final score won't be close. EAGLES BY 13.

7:00pm - Virginia (20-9) vs. NC State (16-14, 5-11)

The Cavs are certainly the least known quantity among the teams receiving byes. Despite tying for the top record in the conference, Virginia won just three road games in ACC play, and didn't do much to distinguish themselves away from the JPJ. The Hoos earned their conference status, to be sure, but don't have the experience or the road resume to be counted on for a deep tourney run. NC State, on the other hand, is predictable as death and taxes, a team that will bang and mash with their three underclassmen posts, and is good enough to win the NIT if they grab an invite. Yesterday, we pegged Brandon Costner as the Pack's key to victory against Duke, and the kid delivered, scoring 30 and hauling in seven rebounds. Today it is Gavin Grant. Coming off Thursday's "upset", NC State needs temerity, not vitality, and State's oldest star is the ideal candidate to provide leadership. Additionally, Grant averaged just 11 and four in the Wolfpack's two early season losses to Virginia, and the key to their success tomorrow is having the three headed monster of Costner, Grant and McCauley all wreaking havoc. Engin Atsur and Courtney Fells are the NC State guards; both grab lots of minutes, and can score when necessary, but if either of the two is State's key offensive player, you can pencil in Virginia to the semifinals.

How Virginia Can Win: Keep the rebounding margin within sight, and take care of the basketball.

How NC State Can Win: Attack Cavalier center Jason Cain. If Cain picks up fouls, McCauley, Grant and Costner will go almost unchecked in the middle, and the upset will be sprung.

What Will Happen: It is easy to say this game will be a contrast in styles. NC State's best three players are 6-foot-8 and bigger. Everyone that does damage for the Cavs is a little guy. Despite the two earlier losses, I like this NC State team a lot, and I think they'll dominate the offensive class and spring the day's second upset. PACK BY 6.

9:30pm - Wake Forest (15-15, 5-11) vs. Virginia Tech (20-10, 10-6)

Who needs 4th of July with the fireworks the Deacs light off Thursday night? Capping a wild day of tourney action, Wake scored the fourth-straight upset win in preliminary action by shooting 64% from the field and (this is not a misprint) 69.6% from three point range. That's 16-23, for those of you with a scorecard, and it's safe to say that if Wake repeats that performance, Virginia Tech has almost no chance. So, how does a team shoot threes like they're trying layups and not blow the other squad out of the gym? Well, getting just 24 rebounds while committing 26 turnovers in 50 minutes is a good start. It's safe to say that if Wake repeats that performance, they have almost no chance. So, which Wake shows up? It will definitely be a tired Deacon squad, as Wake's three big guns all tallied 44 minutes or more into early Friday morning. Ideally, the Wake squad Tech sees today won't present as tight a battle as the one that came to Cassell and just missed in a three point Tech win back in December. That game feels downright prehistoric in hindsight, and hopefully shooting performances like the two of 13 gem from Zabian Dowdell will be extinct come tourney time.

How Wake Can Win: Pound the ball inside and attack the glass. Also, shooting 70% from three-land would help.

How Tech Can Win: Run a little more than they usually do. You're facing an already weak team coming off a marathon battle that encroached past midnight. The more the Hokies make Wake move their legs, the more likely the Deacons are to foul, get in bad position, and prove vulnerable on defense.

What Will Happen: Visser is a scary presence given Tech's record against big guys this year, but on tired feet, he won't be enough to cause the Hokies big problems. TECH BY 9.